was that the lamar week? i remember i had a pretty solid team but was one of the few left with no lamar. and i got like 30+ out of my crappy qb group. i remember going to bed early that night thinking 'well, as long as lamar doesnt get 50 ill be fine' and woke up the next morning eliminated. havent researched it but im pretty sure thats the mnf game youre talking about.
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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
Nope. It was the KC/LAR game that ended 54 to 51. The QB's combined for 900 yds and 10 TD's.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
OOPS!Currently 23.65 over the cut line - no one left
Hoping I squeak by. Mike Williams injury/BYE, and Njoku mildly sprained ankle (hopefully) has me concerned. Gabe Davis return / production is critical next week, should I be fortunate enough to advance.
I’ll see y’all on the other side, I hope.
TOTAL124.15 CUT LINE100.50
Ps - if the MIA D/ST can get me a money play I could increase.
I have Stevenson yet to play.
I like my odds.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Cut line moved more than I thought it would. Glad I have Stevenson left. It would be difficult for me to wash out. Escaped the Turk once again. I hope.
| TOTAL | 127.15 |
| CUT LINE | 111.55 |
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oh ok. well at least you lost to the greatest football game any of us have ever watched.
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. 157.75 with a cut line of 111.5.
I think I'm most likely moving on. Still have Darnell Mooney - 9.60, if I'm using the terminology correctly here.
I think I'm most likely moving on. Still have Darnell Mooney - 9.60, if I'm using the terminology correctly here.
You probably need Mooney to score at least 3 Tds just to be sure.
rustycolts
Footballguy
230 between me and the cut line. It looks like the turk is going to come calling. 116.30 if I could have gotten 5 more points I think I would probably have made it. But you know what they say if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his a$$.
dbc925
Footballguy
Here's what happens when injuries and bye weeks hit your 18-man roster...
Birdie048
Footballguy
BRUTAL!
Here's what happens when injuries and bye weeks hit your 18-man roster...
Here's what happens when injuries and bye weeks hit your 18-man roster...
Bye week mgmt didn't help
44% of the budget and 39% of the roster spots.
Every single player was destined to start other than McPherson/Maher.
| QB Jalen Hurts - $19 | 0.00 |
| QB Russell Wilson - $18 | 0.00 |
| RB Leonard Fournette - $27 | 3.60 |
| RB Javonte Williams - $25 | 0.00 |
| RB Miles Sanders - $17 | 0.00 |
| RB Devin Singletary - $17 | 0.00 |
| WR A.J. Brown - $23 | 0.00 |
| WR Courtland Sutton - $19 | 5.30 |
| WR DeVonta Smith - $13 | 0.00 |
| WR Jahan Dotson - $9 | 0.00 |
| WR Michael Gallup - $9 | 0.00 |
| WR K.J. Hamler - $8 | 2.80 |
| TE Dallas Goedert - $15 | 0.00 |
| TE Albert Okwuegbunam - $9 | 0.00 |
| PK Evan McPherson - $6 | 5.00 |
| PK Brett Maher - $5 | 6.00 |
| TD New Orleans Saints - $6 | 2.00 |
| TD Philadelphia Eagles - $5 | 0.00 |
nittanylion
Footballguy
Looking for a reset going into tonight's game. Am I doing this right?
4582 Entries going into Week 7
Week 7 Cut is 30%, so 4582 * 70 = 3207.4
Current cutline 111.50, which is 3668 place.
I have 121.25, which is 3161 place. 507 Entries between me and the current cut, a slight bit over 10% of current Entries.
The Player Pool has shrunk down to the following with more than 5% Ownership, based on a previous post:
I edited the above quote to try and accurately reflect tonight's scenario...
So, help me with this. Last night was a pretty crappy game, but lots of people had Pickett/Pickens...and that was enough to move the line 11 points?!!
Bears @ Patriots: Mac and DHarris likely back for Pats. Bears aren't a very good football team right now, I'd imagine this is going to be a very one-sided affair. BB's MO is to remove opponents most effective player from the chess board; my best guess is he wants to take Mooney away from Fields, and stop the run.
Biggest threat those of us sweating is Rhamondre having a big night, because he's most highly owned; is that correct? If so, Harris being back ought to help us.
Any of you guys who really know how this stuff works, want to step in and paint the picture any more clear? I'm spitballing here. Thanks!
4582 Entries going into Week 7
Week 7 Cut is 30%, so 4582 * 70 = 3207.4
Current cutline 111.50, which is 3668 place.
I have 121.25, which is 3161 place. 507 Entries between me and the current cut, a slight bit over 10% of current Entries.
The Player Pool has shrunk down to the following with more than 5% Ownership, based on a previous post:
I edited the above quote to try and accurately reflect tonight's scenario...
So, help me with this. Last night was a pretty crappy game, but lots of people had Pickett/Pickens...and that was enough to move the line 11 points?!!
Bears @ Patriots: Mac and DHarris likely back for Pats. Bears aren't a very good football team right now, I'd imagine this is going to be a very one-sided affair. BB's MO is to remove opponents most effective player from the chess board; my best guess is he wants to take Mooney away from Fields, and stop the run.
Biggest threat those of us sweating is Rhamondre having a big night, because he's most highly owned; is that correct? If so, Harris being back ought to help us.
Any of you guys who really know how this stuff works, want to step in and paint the picture any more clear? I'm spitballing here. Thanks!
I looked at the first 10 below the cutline and 7 had Stevenson, 2 Mooney. He's definately the line mover.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yep if I have any hope at all then Stevenson has to have a bad game. I mean epically bad. Harris being back helps but with a little under 5 point cushion not much hope. I think 10 point cushion probably enough that's why I was wishing for 5 more points. No points from. TEs killed me.
nittanylion
Footballguy
I, for one, am hoping the Bears and Patriots play like it's Thursday. Well, maybe not last Thursday...but you get the point.
Dang people are bad at this contest. From the first 10 below the cut.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102096/week/7 Solid roster, should advance.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104746/week/7 One kicker, one defense
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111326/week/7 Very solid roster, just a bad week.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110804/week/7 Should advance but 3 QBs, start one....3 RBs, start two....let's spend the same at both positions.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111424/week/7 Nice RBs, too bad Stevenson won't count until 5.3 with a 2.2 at TE
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105901/week/7 Amazing how long junk rosters survive. Let's just take one QB and hope we survive. Lets make it even more fun by taking one TE, and one K with the same bye as the QB.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105383/week/7 Two RBs, one K, and one D
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/112060/week/7 Three QBs, three RBs (2 on a bye this week). Not a bad roster otherwise, just should have picked Barkely or someone over Cook or Stevenson over Singletary.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111908/week/7 Big stones here. Stevenson - 5.4. Has Allen/Diggs/Jefferson out this week.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105802/week/7 Decent roster here.
I'd consider 5 of the rosters junk rosters meaning they had no shot to win as constructed. I find that shocking given that 50% of the entries are already gone.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102096/week/7 Solid roster, should advance.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104746/week/7 One kicker, one defense
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111326/week/7 Very solid roster, just a bad week.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110804/week/7 Should advance but 3 QBs, start one....3 RBs, start two....let's spend the same at both positions.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111424/week/7 Nice RBs, too bad Stevenson won't count until 5.3 with a 2.2 at TE
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105901/week/7 Amazing how long junk rosters survive. Let's just take one QB and hope we survive. Lets make it even more fun by taking one TE, and one K with the same bye as the QB.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105383/week/7 Two RBs, one K, and one D
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/112060/week/7 Three QBs, three RBs (2 on a bye this week). Not a bad roster otherwise, just should have picked Barkely or someone over Cook or Stevenson over Singletary.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111908/week/7 Big stones here. Stevenson - 5.4. Has Allen/Diggs/Jefferson out this week.
https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105802/week/7 Decent roster here.
I'd consider 5 of the rosters junk rosters meaning they had no shot to win as constructed. I find that shocking given that 50% of the entries are already gone.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And good luck with that, I say.You probably need Mooney to score at least 3 Tds just to be sure.
The cut moved 11 points likely due to:
- Pickens 18.1 points were given to 37.43% of the teams
- Pickett (492 - 17.85) and Tua (287 - 20.55) were only owned by 25 together, so a max of 754/4582 teams (16.5%) could've been replacing a zero, and those replacing 0's were likely under the cut
- Mostert's 18.9 points made an impact, considering he was on nearly 1 out of every 10 teams, and logic says a larger % would've been under the line
- Freiermuth's 19.5 was likely used by over 5% of the teams below the line
- Hill & Waddle both hit double digits. Neither were all that common, but 370 teams total had one or the other (8%)
- Pickens 18.1 points were given to 37.43% of the teams
- Pickett (492 - 17.85) and Tua (287 - 20.55) were only owned by 25 together, so a max of 754/4582 teams (16.5%) could've been replacing a zero, and those replacing 0's were likely under the cut
- Mostert's 18.9 points made an impact, considering he was on nearly 1 out of every 10 teams, and logic says a larger % would've been under the line
- Freiermuth's 19.5 was likely used by over 5% of the teams below the line
- Hill & Waddle both hit double digits. Neither were all that common, but 370 teams total had one or the other (8%)
Puppies
Footballguy
The $64 question is what will the cut line do tonight ?? I believe there are three teams above the cut line by less than 10 points.
I see 3 teams 4.75, 6.90, and 9.70 above the cut line:
RustyColts +4.75 with Santos left,
Joey +6.90
NittanyLion +9.70
Hopefully all three teams can squeak by and go on to week 8.
I had Pickens last night and his 18.10 replaced a 10.80 WR score, and that 10.80 score then replaced a 7.70 flex. So my net gain from Pickens 18.10 points was +10.40.
I still have Stevenson (-9.20) left tonight, but I'm already safe by a decent margin.
rockaction
Footballguy
I had Pickett and had a zero at QB but there was no Tua on my roster. You're assuming that I didn't have Cousins/Winston/Ridder/Pickett as my QBs (which I do), so I replaced a zero with Pickett. But I was already above the cut line. But you're also assuming nobody was in the same situation as I was, and that's probably wrong. People had Cousins on bye and could have had their other QB hurt or losing his job.
rustycolts
Footballguy
I'm likely toast. Andrews let me down 5 or 6 points from him and I think I would have been golden..Waller MIA for 2 weeks in a row didn't help. Mills did his job though. I kind of figured week 7 was going to be the week and I was right. Good luck to the rest of you guys hope the winner is someone from this thread.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
How many of you have been able to dodge the injury bug to your high dollar players?
Here's how many teams still alive in week 7 have each of the high dollar (I'm calling it $15+) players with major injuries
$ - Name - Alive teams with players
$20 - Akers - 95
$18 - Marquise Brown - 254
$21 - Dobbins - 135
$21 - Hall - 180
$15 - Trey Lance - 500
$15 - Rashod Penny - 393
$25 - Javonte Williams - 387
$16 - DK Metcalf - 218 - Awaiting injury news
$18 - Mike Williams - 329 - Awaiting injury news
I was surprised the list wasn't longer but what I did notice in the $15+ range is that the list would grow drastically if you called out players that have been hurt a few games or currently dinged up and might miss some more and players that are having horrible years.
My team has Javonte and Dobbins so $46 in dead money the rest of the year in high dollar guys.
I also have
$17 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - missing a few games
$13 - Elijah Moore - trade demands/horrible year
$7 - DJ Chark - missing games lately
$5 - Randall Cobb - missing games lately
$6 - Zamir White - not contributing this year
$3 - Jeff Wilson - major blow to his workload
$3 - Rodrigo - soon to be cut again?
That's $100 in salary that I'm not able to count on week by week in addition to byes or only being able to start 1 of Cousins/Carr and my 3 cheap defenses.
In past years, I've typically went with small and powerful rosters (18-19 players) and have never made it far. This year I went with 25 players and assuming I make it to week 8 (almost a lock), it will be my best year despite a team that doesn't look very impressive. As has been written about numerous times in this thread and I'm finally coming around to agreeing with, large rosters are the way to go. With NFL teams now managing the concussion problem better, you just have to assume you're going to have a bunch of land mines every week and those middle dollar ($5-$14) players are key to survival.
Here's how many teams still alive in week 7 have each of the high dollar (I'm calling it $15+) players with major injuries
$ - Name - Alive teams with players
$20 - Akers - 95
$18 - Marquise Brown - 254
$21 - Dobbins - 135
$21 - Hall - 180
$15 - Trey Lance - 500
$15 - Rashod Penny - 393
$25 - Javonte Williams - 387
$16 - DK Metcalf - 218 - Awaiting injury news
$18 - Mike Williams - 329 - Awaiting injury news
I was surprised the list wasn't longer but what I did notice in the $15+ range is that the list would grow drastically if you called out players that have been hurt a few games or currently dinged up and might miss some more and players that are having horrible years.
My team has Javonte and Dobbins so $46 in dead money the rest of the year in high dollar guys.
I also have
$17 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - missing a few games
$13 - Elijah Moore - trade demands/horrible year
$7 - DJ Chark - missing games lately
$5 - Randall Cobb - missing games lately
$6 - Zamir White - not contributing this year
$3 - Jeff Wilson - major blow to his workload
$3 - Rodrigo - soon to be cut again?
That's $100 in salary that I'm not able to count on week by week in addition to byes or only being able to start 1 of Cousins/Carr and my 3 cheap defenses.
In past years, I've typically went with small and powerful rosters (18-19 players) and have never made it far. This year I went with 25 players and assuming I make it to week 8 (almost a lock), it will be my best year despite a team that doesn't look very impressive. As has been written about numerous times in this thread and I'm finally coming around to agreeing with, large rosters are the way to go. With NFL teams now managing the concussion problem better, you just have to assume you're going to have a bunch of land mines every week and those middle dollar ($5-$14) players are key to survival.
apalmer
Footballguy
Add Matt Ryan to the dead money list
www.espn.com
638 live teams get iced
Colts bench Ryan, will start Ehlinger rest of way
The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback for the remainder of the season, coach Frank Reich announced Monday.
638 live teams get iced
Puppies
Footballguy
I've been without Dotson for 3 weeks, St.Brown for 1 week and now a second one, but have managed to slide by so far.
Finding value to a large degree, is the key to success in this contest. By that, I mean identifying players during the pre-season that appear to be well positioned to outplay their cap charge. Doing this allows you to roster a higher number of players before you exhaust your cap, and expand your possibilities and (have a plan B or C) when the unexpected happens. It's what gives you that 3rd PK and 3rd Defense, and those extra couple bargain WRs that seems to put up an unexpectedly good number from week to week and bump up your score. When injuries happen, and they DO happen, you put yourself at an extreme disadvantage with a small lineup that relies on the majority of your players producing a reasonably high score every week. Even if you are lucky enough to avoid injuries, you still must navigate the bye weeks, so hopefully you have spaced them out well and have avoided the temptation of rostering high profile players with the same bye week. It's a trade-off we all make every year and I know I do it better some years than others.
Injuries are a major part of the contest and none of us can predict who suffers them. The best we can do is look at a player's past injury history and durability, and roll the dice. I think all of us know subconsciously when we are taking chances with a player that has missed a few games each year, or always seems to be banged up. I know in my case, I cringe and hope for the best when I know I'm taking a calculated risk.
The things I mention above are what I would classify as player management, (things you can somewhat calculate and manage). The rest is up to chance.
I think (in addition to just getting lucky), success depends on properly managing the things we CAN calculate and then miraculously escaping the injury bug to a large degree, and thereby avoiding the dreaded knock on the door from the Turk.
Good luck to everyone tonight (if you are close) and good luck to everyone going forward to week 8.
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H8fulHuck
Footballguy
Going straight from Manning to super tank for Andrew Luck brought on a hefty curse. Indy is a QB wasteland. Good luck to the rookie they draft in 2023
I wasn't pointing to anyone in particular. I was only saying of the 4582 live teams, 754 had either Pickett or Tua, and 25 had both. And of those, many could have been replacing a 0 with either 17.85 or 20.55 points. The 2 QB's did manage to bump the line a decent amount relative to the overall 11 that it moved. But, I put them after Pickens above, because I think he moved the line more with his performance than the 2 QB's combined. I may be wrong though.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hey, Winz. Wasn't trying to poke a hole in your reasoning. I was just saying that other people might have zeros without a Pickett/Tua combination. It could have been Pickett/any hurt QB not starting.
It was really just to point something out, not to assess your reasoning and logic.
It was talking just to talk, how about that? I do that sometimes. I was an immediate exception to your generalized rule, so I figured I'd let you know.
davidwb
Footballguy
Add Matt Ryan to the dead money list
Colts bench Ryan, will start Ehlinger rest of way
The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback for the remainder of the season, coach Frank Reich announced Monday.
638 live teams get iced
That would be me. Plus, Njoku out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain.
apalmer
Footballguy
It could be worse: I imagine there are a bunch of teams that figured Matty would be a good plan to cover a qb with a bye in the next couple of weeks or who paired him with Wentz or Lance.Add Matt Ryan to the dead money list
Colts bench Ryan, will start Ehlinger rest of way
The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback for the remainder of the season, coach Frank Reich announced Monday.
638 live teams get iced
That would be me. Plus, Njoku out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Yeah - I had Lance and Ryan as my QBs. Still hanging around with just dead money at QB, as well as Javonte Williams and Blankenship (Elijah Moore probably dead money now too). Despite all of that, somehow, one of the better runs in years for me in this contest.It could be worse: I imagine there are a bunch of teams that figured Matty would be a good plan to cover a qb with a bye in the next couple of weeks or who paired him with Wentz or Lance.Add Matt Ryan to the dead money list
Colts bench Ryan, will start Ehlinger rest of way
The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback for the remainder of the season, coach Frank Reich announced Monday.
638 live teams get iced
That would be me. Plus, Njoku out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain.
I've rostered everything from 19 to 29. Sure, I think there are basic rules to follow for team makeup, but as long as you stay within reason, you just need to get lucky. For the smallest rosters, they typically have to avoid the injury bug, because most of the players will be scoring well. For the largest rosters, they have to hit on some cheap guys, but can withstand injury alot easier. Tell you what though, if I did make the final 250, I would rather have a small roster.
Puppies
Footballguy
Re: Rustycolts…
That 42 yard Santos FG was for you.
Just got yourself a little more wiggle room vs the Turk!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
1. I refuse to jinx myself
2. Mike Williams was the 1st. Godspeed.
I own both Etienne and Hall... pretty sure I'd rather have a healthy hall and Etienne in a timeshare than no Hall and Etienne without competition, but we'll see how it goes
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yea wish that were true. Zuerlein got me 12.80. So I need about 12 more points out of him. Not to much to ask is it?Re: Rustycolts…
That 42 yard Santos FG was for you.
Just got yourself a little more wiggle room vs the Turk!
rustycolts
Footballguy
Stevenson touchdown ouch. I think that will just about do it.
The last person you want scoring is him
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yea I've been going through the rosters just above the cutline. It's making me crazy. Time to stop or I'm going to need professional help.lolThe last person you want scoring is him
