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- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
Copying Winz, I don't see how I make it through this week, gonna need a big game from Ertz and a huge game from Etienne.
QB - Cousins, Goff
RB - Etienne, Hall, Sanders, Pierce, Mattison
WR - Sutton, Mooney, Renfrow, Juju, Corey Davis, Watkins
TE - Kelce, Ertz, Alie-Cox
K - Zuerlein, Blankenship, Gano
D - WAS, CHI, SEA
QB - Cousins, Goff
RB - Etienne, Hall, Sanders, Pierce, Mattison
WR - Sutton, Mooney, Renfrow, Juju, Corey Davis, Watkins
TE - Kelce, Ertz, Alie-Cox
K - Zuerlein, Blankenship, Gano
D - WAS, CHI, SEA
Still alive.
I'm probably toast this week. I have Kelce and Everett off at TE relying solely on Hooper and JuJu and MVS off at WR. This is one of my heavier byes weeks. Should have taken note of the cut jumping to 30%.
QB - Carr
RB - Pierce, Edmonds, Kamara, Wilson, Hebert
WR - Sutton, Campbell, McKenize, Pickens, Lazard????
TE - Hooper
K - Fairbum, Gano
D - Wash, Balt, Minn
Probably need 25-30 from Kamara and Hooper to score as the other guys are highly owned.
RB - Pierce, Edmonds, Kamara, Wilson, Hebert
WR - Sutton, Campbell, McKenize, Pickens, Lazard????
TE - Hooper
K - Fairbum, Gano
D - Wash, Balt, Minn
Probably need 25-30 from Kamara and Hooper to score as the other guys are highly owned.
Puppies
Footballguy
Statistical Trivia, and other fun with numbers... Week 7 Edition....
27 = Team size with the highest overall survival rate through 7 weeks @ 41.12%
18 = Team size with the lowest overall survival rate through 7 weeks @ 24.43% (lowest for the last 4 consecutive weeks)
18 = Team size with the largest drop in overall survival rate in week 7, from 34.91% to 24.43%, a drop of 10.48 points. (30.03% of 18 team rosters alive through 6 weeks, were eliminated in week 7)
29= Team size with the smallest drop in overall survival rate in week 7 at ZERO. Every 29 player roster that was alive through wee6 six survived week 7.
The top 5 team sizes in terms of overall survival rate through the first 7 weeks are all between 23 and 28 (same as last week)
Generally speaking, larger roster teams seem to have a statistical advantage over smaller roster teams.
Through the first 7 weeks of the contest, 70.05 % of the teams that started have now been eliminated. If your team is alive, you are among the 29.95% that survived the first 7 weeks.
It was estimated at the start of the contest that 222 teams would survive past week 14 and be eligible for the finals and the corresponding prizes. 222 teams equal only 1.81% of the 12,254 teams that entered the contest. Today, 6.08% of the current surviving teams are now projected to make the finals (223 total due to ties and rounding). So statistically, if your team is still alive, you have a 336% better chance to make the finals now, compared to the start of the contest.
Although we had no way to know it, 24 of the 29 teams on our list had already surpassed the final cut line (120.00) after the 4pm games.
Next week the cut line advances to 30%. If it had been 30% this week, the cut line would have been 127.85.
From our group, the team scoring the most points on Thursday night was apalmer with 47.30.
The team scoring the most points in the 1pm games was FormerFourDigit, with 127.55,
The team scoring the most points in the 4pm games was The Stray Doug with 84.80.
The team scoring the most points in the 8pm game was ScottyBo with 34.80.
and the team adding the most to its score on Monday night was ScottyBo with 19.60.
Highest overall score this week (from our group) was ScottyBo, scoring 220.45 points and posting the 3rd highest score in the contest.
The Team escaping the Turk by the slimmest margin this week was NittanyLion, clearning the cut line by just 1.25 points.
Good luck to everyone in week 8!
27 = Team size with the highest overall survival rate through 7 weeks @ 41.12%
18 = Team size with the lowest overall survival rate through 7 weeks @ 24.43% (lowest for the last 4 consecutive weeks)
18 = Team size with the largest drop in overall survival rate in week 7, from 34.91% to 24.43%, a drop of 10.48 points. (30.03% of 18 team rosters alive through 6 weeks, were eliminated in week 7)
29= Team size with the smallest drop in overall survival rate in week 7 at ZERO. Every 29 player roster that was alive through wee6 six survived week 7.
The top 5 team sizes in terms of overall survival rate through the first 7 weeks are all between 23 and 28 (same as last week)
Generally speaking, larger roster teams seem to have a statistical advantage over smaller roster teams.
Through the first 7 weeks of the contest, 70.05 % of the teams that started have now been eliminated. If your team is alive, you are among the 29.95% that survived the first 7 weeks.
It was estimated at the start of the contest that 222 teams would survive past week 14 and be eligible for the finals and the corresponding prizes. 222 teams equal only 1.81% of the 12,254 teams that entered the contest. Today, 6.08% of the current surviving teams are now projected to make the finals (223 total due to ties and rounding). So statistically, if your team is still alive, you have a 336% better chance to make the finals now, compared to the start of the contest.
Although we had no way to know it, 24 of the 29 teams on our list had already surpassed the final cut line (120.00) after the 4pm games.
Next week the cut line advances to 30%. If it had been 30% this week, the cut line would have been 127.85.
From our group, the team scoring the most points on Thursday night was apalmer with 47.30.
The team scoring the most points in the 1pm games was FormerFourDigit, with 127.55,
The team scoring the most points in the 4pm games was The Stray Doug with 84.80.
The team scoring the most points in the 8pm game was ScottyBo with 34.80.
and the team adding the most to its score on Monday night was ScottyBo with 19.60.
Highest overall score this week (from our group) was ScottyBo, scoring 220.45 points and posting the 3rd highest score in the contest.
The Team escaping the Turk by the slimmest margin this week was NittanyLion, clearning the cut line by just 1.25 points.
Good luck to everyone in week 8!
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Dacomish
Footballguy
On to Week 8 and the first of the 30% cuts, here is how the cuts should shake out going forward:
Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number –11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number –9927 9926
10% Week 3 cut to Number –8935 8939
20% Week 4 cut to Number –7148 7152
20% Week 5 cut to Number –5719 5726
20% Week 6 cut to Number –4576 4582
20% Week 7 cut to Number –3661 3669
30% Week 8 cut to Number –2563 NEW 2569
30% Week 9 cut to Number –1795 NEW 1799
30% Week 10 cut to Number –1257 NEW 1260
30% Week 11 cut to Number –880 NEW 882
30% Week 12 cut to Number –616 NEW 618
40% Week 13 cut to Number –370 NEW 371
40% Week 14 cut to Number -222 NEW 223 (this means the 2 highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)
Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number –
10% Week 2 cut to Number –
10% Week 3 cut to Number –
20% Week 4 cut to Number –
20% Week 5 cut to Number –
20% Week 6 cut to Number –
20% Week 7 cut to Number –
30% Week 8 cut to Number –
30% Week 9 cut to Number –
30% Week 10 cut to Number –
30% Week 11 cut to Number –
30% Week 12 cut to Number –
40% Week 13 cut to Number –
40% Week 14 cut to Number -
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
22 rooster size here and thanks to Moreau and Sammy Watkins counting this week, only the Detroit D has yet to crack the starting lineup.
9 Byes passed without sinking the ship. Week 9 is precarious with 6 players out.
Week 8 not so bad with Kelce as the lone Bye. Projected starters
Carr… Pickett/Trubisky
Fournette, Elliott, Pierce … J Cook
Pickens, Sutton, ARob… Renfrow, Watkins,Julio
Andrews… Moreau
Boswell… Blank? Seibert?
Zona… Minnesota, Detroit
I’m hopeful the end game play of James Cook starts heating up after Buffalos bye week. Good time for the team to see what the 2nd round rookie can do.
9 Byes passed without sinking the ship. Week 9 is precarious with 6 players out.
Week 8 not so bad with Kelce as the lone Bye. Projected starters
Carr… Pickett/Trubisky
Fournette, Elliott, Pierce … J Cook
Pickens, Sutton, ARob… Renfrow, Watkins,Julio
Andrews… Moreau
Boswell… Blank? Seibert?
Zona… Minnesota, Detroit
I’m hopeful the end game play of James Cook starts heating up after Buffalos bye week. Good time for the team to see what the 2nd round rookie can do.
Army Eye
Footballguy
This was the sweaty week. Knew I'd have no QB. A.J. Brown on bye, also Elijah not playing (not that that's a big difference). Then Mark Andrews got things started with a disastrous game. I thought I was gonna need him to perform to make it. But things got better from there. Made it to the other side, back with a full (-ish) squad!
Puppies
Footballguy
Sounds like you dodged a lot of bullets, all in the same week. I'm glad you made it. Lots of us were sweating it this week, and some all the way to the final of the Monday night game (RustyColts).
Although I got 28.00 points on Thursday night, and started out feeling pretty good, I was sweating a lot through the 1pm games. I had Cousins, Osborn and Goedert on bye, and Dotson out injured. Then St. Brown gets a concussion and is out after only 1.40 points. Then Fournette, who has been my best RB so far, lays a big fat egg, getting only 3.60 as Carolina smokes Tampa Bay. My bad luck continues as AJ Dillon gets just 1.50 points Tonyan disappoints with only 7.70 after posting 24 last week. I'm really sweating as I only add 53.50 to my score in the 1pm games. Then hoping to get a break somewhere, I'm disappointed as Courtland Sutton gets only 5.30, and I'm running out of players.
Just as I'm starting to imagine my fantasy football life flash before my eyes, Pierce puts up 13.70, Edwards-Helaire a mediocre 9.20 (but I'll take it!), my only active QB, Derek Car puts up 17.95, to give me confidence that things might be ok. Then JuJu bails me out adding a long catch and late TD bringing his total to 25.40. Feeling safe but not sure what the cut line will do, I'm relieved when I see it only moves to 100.50, and I'm mildly shocked to be at 142 after fearing for my survival a couple hours before. At 8pm, George Pickens puts up 18.10 to replace Sutton's 5.30, and I'm cruising. Ramonde put the icing on the cake Monday night with 19.80 more, which added 10 to my score.
It was a weekend full of ups and downs and I feel lucky to end up where I did.
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nittanylion
Footballguy
Talk about sweating - I had no Players in last night's game, and watched my meager +9.7 margin get whittled down to +1.25 via Rhamondre Stevenson's early Halloween masquerading as The Turk, seeming to get Every. Single. Carry. And. Catch. in a 4th quarter with a clock running like molasses. When I looked at the box score after the game was over, I said to myself: "How the hell does he post a stat line like that with the Pats on the losing end of a blowout???"
For Week 8:
Cousins, Carr, Ryan (inj/benched)
Dillon (underperforming), Hunt (please get traded), Singletary, Pierce, Wilson (leave some for me, Easy Ed)
ARob (underperforming), Sutton (see ARob), GDavis, Boyd, Julio (always inj), Palmer (bye), Watkins (his own category of underperforming)
Knox, Engram, Hooper (takes underperforming to an entirely new level)
McManus, Hopkins (bye), Blankenship (please stay employed)
Ravens, Packers, 49'ers
For Week 8:
Cousins, Carr, Ryan (inj/benched)
Dillon (underperforming), Hunt (please get traded), Singletary, Pierce, Wilson (leave some for me, Easy Ed)
ARob (underperforming), Sutton (see ARob), GDavis, Boyd, Julio (always inj), Palmer (bye), Watkins (his own category of underperforming)
Knox, Engram, Hooper (takes underperforming to an entirely new level)
McManus, Hopkins (bye), Blankenship (please stay employed)
Ravens, Packers, 49'ers
Puppies
Footballguy
.... and sometimes you hate it !! 
Army Eye
Footballguy
Isn't that the best? (and by the best, I mean the worst) When you're watching the physical embodiment of The Turk on your screen
rustycolts
Footballguy
Well I could really use Conner and Waller back and hopefully Lazard is not seriously banged up. Andrews back to form and Allen score about 40 that's not a big ask is it.
While last week was exciting and all I'm a little old for all that excitement nonsense. I'll take a nice boring 180 please.
While last week was exciting and all I'm a little old for all that excitement nonsense. I'll take a nice boring 180 please.
lol k
yeah im not sure how he was able to amass all 11 of those carries either.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gonna be dicey. That’s a lot of dudes on the BYE at very inopportune timing what with Andrews & Sutton’s downturn.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m slightly upset that I didn’t use his 10 last week, as Fairbarn usurped him by 1 point.
Big things coming though!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d love it if Bateman would come back & play, and also if Mike Williams can beat his 4-week return estimate.
Made it thru week 7 fairly comfortably with 147.55. Anything above the cut line, right?
Week 8
QB Cousins, Carr, Pickett
RB Jones, Barkley, Edmunds, M.Carter, Pierce
WR AJ Brown, Sutton, AMRS, Lazard, Julio Jones
TE Njoku, Hurst, Everett, Alie-Cox
K York, Blankenship, Seibert,
TD Ravens, Vikings, Cardinals
Week 8
QB Cousins, Carr, Pickett
RB Jones, Barkley, Edmunds, M.Carter, Pierce
WR AJ Brown, Sutton, AMRS, Lazard, Julio Jones
TE Njoku, Hurst, Everett, Alie-Cox
K York, Blankenship, Seibert,
TD Ravens, Vikings, Cardinals
Mister CIA
Footballguy
With Kelce out I look forward to Pitts stepping up this week.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I admit I have not looked recently ... I spent the last 2 weeks either preparing or in a training class (IATA instructor if you know what that means).
Managed to continue this fun ride even with several ZEROS (Cousins, Jefferson, MT & Logan Thomas) The $3 pick of Chubba really stepped up this time around!
For Week 8 without Herbert, Cousins get to face ARZ ... so I am hopeful.
Good luck to all in the coming weeks with the challenges of BYES, Injuries or just player misbehavior!
Managed to continue this fun ride even with several ZEROS (Cousins, Jefferson, MT & Logan Thomas) The $3 pick of Chubba really stepped up this time around!
For Week 8 without Herbert, Cousins get to face ARZ ... so I am hopeful.
Good luck to all in the coming weeks with the challenges of BYES, Injuries or just player misbehavior!
Saint
Footballguy
Looking at the running list of Top 5 scores each week, Week 7 was fairly big with four teams meeting the Turk, including Quiet Storm who was the Top overall team in Week 1.
Here's a look at our Top 5 runners since week 1... (Shoutout to Scottybo for making the squad)!
Here's a look at our Top 5 runners since week 1... (Shoutout to Scottybo for making the squad)!
- We have had 35 different teams score in the top 5. Of the current survivors, we have had 7 teams in the Top 50 multiple times
- 3 x 18 person roosters (swagmeowt, 103499, 100376), 1 x 19 person roosters (111472), 2 x 20 person roosters (100872, schoon), 1 x 22 person rooster (GetUpKraeperdick)
- Congrats to 111472 who got through Week 7 without a QB
- Believe it or not, some of these roosters have no bye week management. Will be interesting to see how many of our Top 5s make it to the dance.
- 3 x 18 person roosters (swagmeowt, 103499, 100376), 1 x 19 person roosters (111472), 2 x 20 person roosters (100872, schoon), 1 x 22 person rooster (GetUpKraeperdick)
- Our leader in points (105753) went down in Week #7. Welcome to our new leader in points: 100872 (https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100872/week/7) with an average of 186.16
- The average pts per week of the folks that have placed in Top 5 is 175.62
- We have lost 11 teams that have placed in the Top 5 since Week 1. The average loss rate per week is 36.67%. The bloodiest weeks were Week 4 and 7.
- The best average of the Teams that have been eliminated is 183.45
. - The average pts per week of all eliminated Top 5 teams has been 169.70.
- The turk average has been 128.01 pts.
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Saint
Footballguy
Catching up from conferences, happy to be at week 8. Scary part is I am dependent on the Lions Defense this week as KC is on bye... 
So far through 8 weeks:
QB Lamar, Goff, Pickett
RB Swift, Mostert, Pierce, B Robinson, Wilson
WR Sutton, Kirk, Burks, Palmer, Pickens, Doubs, W. Robinson
TE Andrews, Goedert, Engram
K Blankeship, Gano, Seibert
D KC, Det
So far through 8 weeks:
- Highest three survivors beating the overall survival rate are Graham Gano (41.62% survival), Evan Engram (39.39%), and WanDale Robinson (39.28%)
- Scary trouble guys losing to the survival rate are D'Andre Swift (16.26% - Need you back brother!), Javonte Williams (20.29% - Heal up for next year), and Treylon Burks (24.14%)
- Week 7 is the first time in the season where Courtland Sutton is now BELOW the Contest Survival rate. He is at 29.61% survival compared to the contest at 29.95%.
- My least owned guy among the contest is Treylon Burks. That makes me nauseous.
- My most owned guy is Dameon Pierce
QB Lamar, Goff, Pickett
RB Swift, Mostert, Pierce, B Robinson, Wilson
WR Sutton, Kirk, Burks, Palmer, Pickens, Doubs, W. Robinson
TE Andrews, Goedert, Engram
K Blankeship, Gano, Seibert
D KC, Det
If you own him, this week should not matter, as he was already slated to be out. But losing a $21 player for multiple weeks sucks. He is currently above the 29.95% overall contest survival rate at 30.85%, but you can expect him no start nosediving.
Trivia (no cheating) - Can you name the only 2 players $20+ with at least 1 missed game (not counting bye) and also above the overall survival rate?
Puppies
Footballguy
I suspected Rodgiro was one of them simply because I know he is very widely owned, and he spent 5 weeks out of the game. I just checked and found I was right. He has a survival rate of 32.49%. The other one, assuming there are only two as you said, would be someone else who is very widely owned. But I'm not even going to guess. I wondered about Amon-Ra St Brown, who is on my roster, and I found that he is a frog hair under the line at 29.89%.
EDIT: Oops! I missed the part about being over $20...
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apalmer
Footballguy
However, missing Mahomes, Kelce, JuJu and Hardman this week is probably going to seriously dent that
Birdie048
Footballguy
Count me in on that 294 owners of Big Mike!
The Toney to KC trade hurts Ju-Ju too so I might be hurting unless NOS MThomas makes a revival!
Seriously dent it? I'm guessing he doesn't even make it this week.
this is the perfect example of a team built to ACTUALLY WIN this contest. (though holy crap the mahomes/pickett and kelce/MAC pairings are scary).
I’d love it if Bateman would come back & play, and also if Mike Williams can beat his 4-week return estimate.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
One has got to be Mike Evans. Not sure on the other.
feels like a solid guy to have this week. back playing, the only guy arod trusts thats still left and they figure to be throwing a bunch. honestly wouldnt be that shocked to see 10+ targets and something like 8-120-1 kinda line. plus revenge game narrative lol!
Yes, the other is Michael Pittman
Saint
Footballguy
Yeah good team, if he survives the Week 8 cut without KC. The only players he has in play:
QB: Pickens,
RB: Barkley, Gainwell, Pierce
WR: Jefferson, Davis, Amon-Ra,
TE:
K: Elliott, Hopkins
D: GB, SF
Pretty much need all of his guys to hit and ideally, some big scores from his big $ guys. If it's low scoring like last week, with a 30% cut, he may not make it.
Contest fun facts...
- All the teams that rostered both Gardner Minshew and Ricky Seals-Jones are still alive
- All the teams that rostered both Drew Lock and Auden Tate are still alive
- All the teams that rostered both Pierre Strong and Amari Rodgers are still alive
- All the teams that rostered both Gardner Minshew and Ricky Seals-Jones are still alive
- All the teams that rostered both Drew Lock and Auden Tate are still alive
- All the teams that rostered both Pierre Strong and Amari Rodgers are still alive
Puppies
Footballguy
Nice find....
Here's the rest of the story..... (more fun facts)
17 had Minshew and 9 had Ricky Seals-Jones, but only 1 had both players ... and is still alive;
8 had Drew Locke and 4 had Auden Tate, but only 1 had both players... and is still alive;
12 had Pierre Strong and 30 had Amari Rodgers, but only 1 had both players... and is still alive.
"all the teams" in these three cases, equals exactly one team
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Looks like I'm about to start collecting dividends on my Kadarius Toney/Elijah Moore stack.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Tyler Boyd, come on down! Go get 'em, young man!
I figured it would be you to figure out I was only talking about 1 team, hehehehe
Nice find....
Here's the rest of the story..... (more fun facts)
17 had Minshew and 9 had Ricky Seals-Jones, but only 1 had both players ... and is still alive;
8 had Drew Locke and 4 had Auden Tate, but only 1 had both players... and is still alive;
12 had Pierre Strong and 30 had Amari Rodgers, but only 1 had both players... and is still alive.
"all the teams" in these three cases, equals exactly one team
