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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

Things to Consider Monday night:

* The cut line moved 11.75 points during the Sunday 8pm game.
* We need to hope it does not move nearly that much on Monday night, or a lot more of us are in jeopardy.

* Key Monday Night Players / ownership: Chubb 464, McPherson 350, Hurst 327, Mixon 241, York 168, Boyd 155, Burrow 150, H Henry 137, T Higgins 102, Hunt 64

Where we stand after the 8pm games....
Good Luck if you're close!

205.30 da_Budman
170.75 Army Eye
166.60 FormerFourDigit
165.60 Birdie048
164.75 Stubby
162.75 dbc925
162.30 aPalmer
161.05 fear the bald
153.55 ZWK
152.85 ChurchOfIggyPop
151.70 Sooted72
149.40 Ackme
144.70 Puppies
141.70 rzrback77
139.20 Irelad
138.20 davidwb
137.40 BroncosFan07
137.15 DaCommish
133.90 The Stray Doug
133.50 Twin Turbo
130.00-------- Tentative Cut Line ---- :cry:
129.90 Mister CIA Fan
129.10 Saint
124.00 Rock Action
122.80 The Winz
122.15 Scottybo
117.00 NittanyLion
112.95 BassNBrew
111.00 Hot Sauce Guy
105.20 RustyColts
104.90 cstruck
102.50 QuizGuy66
 
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How bad a week it was for your ol' pal Statutory Ape:

Entered SNF at 99.20 vs a prospective cut line of 118.25.

Said 99.20 included qualifying performances of 4.5 (JWilson), 2.3 (Sutton) and 2.0 (Hooper) along with 3 (McPherson) 5 (D/ST Ravens), 10.10 (Julio) 10.40 (ARob) and 12.60 (DPierce).

Shot close to an entire magazine at the target on SNF: (Singletary, Dillon, GDavis, Watkins, Knox and D/ST Packers), and while I was able to improve most of the single-digit anchors, I only upped the D/ST score by 1, I'm stuck with the Kicker score, and wasn't able to surpass anything in the 10-12 range. As such, Kareem Hunt will have to play, and play well, tomorrow night, and Tyler Boyd will have to deliver a Chase-like performance (actually a reasonable chance that he could), for me to slip through the crack of a rapidly shutting door.

117/130...Boyd's 1st 6.8 point won't count, and his next 13 would only catch me up to the current cut. Chase-like performance, indeed: probably need about a 30-pointer from Boyd to sniff Week 9, unless Hunt plays and is able contribute to the cause.

What a juxtaposition...Hunt being traded would benefit me immensely in National High Stakes...but right now, I'd rather last another week here.
 
This is the 2nd time I’ve made it this far. I just need the Bears to keep on with the overs. The last two weeks were my high scores for the year also.
 
So...I don't think Allen helped enough. Gonna need the Bengals to go all Sam Wyche on the Browns.

102.50 + (Mixon - 4.50) + (Hurst - the other 4.50) + (McPherson - 0.00)

Will see if the alternates give me a woulda coulda shoulda moment but they haven't been that hot this week either.

But I'm not dead yet Turk!!!!

:scared:

-QG
Well the Bengals SHOULD lean more on Mixon and hurst with Chase out. Good luck to you.
 
Turk called me early this week. Only bye was Kelce so I will have to roster him twice next year. No Zeke and a zero from the kickers didn’t help.

Pulling for my fellow message bored mates. Take this contest down for the team!
 
My guesstimate is that I need a combined 49 points from Mixon, Hurst, and MoneyMac. Not impossible but highly unlikely (highest combined so far in a week for them is like 40.50

-QG
 
Well, I'm sitting in the clubhouse at 162, so it seems like a good time for a halftime report. I only have three players that haven't participated:
Desmond Ridder (but I have Marcus Mariota)
Zamir White (the textbook definition of wasted dinero)
Rodrigo Blankenship (might have helped some of y'all, but not me).

Special shoutout to Chris Boswell. Had it not been for his 15 points in week 1, I'd have had an early exit. Instead, I escaped the Turk by 3-1/2 points, and here we are.

Looking over this, I can say that I've been very fortunate in one regard. I won't mention it in order to not jinx my roster, but it seems like it's the most important factor in this contest.

Lamar Jackson - $19 (4 starts) I would have thought he'd have carried me more weeks, but I'm not complaining.
Jared Goff - $9 (1)
Mariota - $5 (3) Surprisingly, he's been my starter the last three weeks. Pretty good expenditure of five bucks.
Ridder - $4 (0) But really, I have the Falcons QB for $9. Still a pretty good investment.

Dalvin Cook - $29 (4) Not enough starts for the money.
Chase Edmonds - $14 (2) Pretty quiet for the last five weeks.
Dameon Pierce - $10 (6) Best value on my roster.
Jerrick McKinnon - $8 (3) Probably about what I could rightfully expect at this price. Very hit or miss.
Brian Robinson - $7 (2) but out of only three weeks. Hope he's worth the wait.
White - $6 (0) the wastiest of all wasted money.

D.J. Moore - $23 (4) I'd like more bang for those bucks.
Courtand Sutton - $19 (5) Hit the first five weeks, goose eggs since. Concerning.
Juju Smith-Schuster $15 (3) Just a small piece of a high-powered offense. Hopefully Toney doesn't further eat into his production.
Isaiah McKenzie - $6 (4) Finally showed up again last night after a four-week hiatus.
George Pickens - $6 (4) As a Steelers fan, I'd rather have had Pickett sit for the first year, but he's sure helped Pickens (and me) in this contest. The schedule allegedly gets easier going forward.
Romeo Dubbs - $5 (4) My receivers have done a pretty good job of splitting the load.

TJ Hockenson - $17 (5) I've used two TEs in five of the eight weeks, and in three of those weeks, it's been Hockenson and Goedert.
Dallas Goedert - $15 (6) The only week he played that I didn't use him was when Mo Alie-Cox went off.
Mo Alie-Cox - $6 (1) Not my best money spent.
Tommy Tremble - $5 (1) Blecch.

Boswell - $4 (5) This was my one "picking him just because he's a Steeler" pick. So far, so good.
Randy Bullock - $4 (3) This number will be 4 next week, with Boswell off.
Blankenship - $3 (0) Note to self - stay away from $3 kickers, regardless of circumstance. Those who set the dollar values are wise. PS - Hey Cardinals, if you're not using him to score points, let someone else have him.

San Francisco - $4 (2) A lot of parity with my defenses.
Baltimore - $4 (3)
Minnesota - $3 (3)

Here's hoping I can provide a week 12 update!
 
Looking at the running list of Top 5 scores each week, Week 7 was fairly big with four teams meeting the Turk, including Quiet Storm who was the Top overall team in Week 1.

Here's a look at our Top 5 runners since week 1... (Shoutout to Scottybo for making the squad)!
However, missing Mahomes, Kelce, JuJu and Hardman this week is probably going to seriously dent that
Seriously dent it? I'm guessing he doesn't even make it this week.
Bingo. https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100872/week/8
 
I'm putting my money where my mouth is, just placed a (small) bet on Tyler Boyd O60.5 rec yds (-106). Need him to probably double that over several receptions and at least 1 TD to have a prayer, but...c'mon Pitt Panther, go get yourself some!!!
 
Well, at least I ain't sweating anymore. I'm in the clubhouse under the line with no one left. Based on @Puppies list above, the thread regulars took a beating this week. Sadly, I got ousted the first time I scored over 30 at QB. And yes, I know I sound like a broken record, but my biggest regret was rostering the 2 riskiest kickers IMO. Hopefully those of us who are cut this week will continue to visit this thread to cheer on those still in it. And don't forget, we still have a playoff subscriber contest!

Special thanks to @Puppies for sending kind words and fun stats. Best of luck to those still battling.
 
Well, at least I ain't sweating anymore. I'm in the clubhouse under the line with no one left. Based on @Puppies list above, the thread regulars took a beating this week. Sadly, I got ousted the first time I scored over 30 at QB. And yes, I know I sound like a broken record, but my biggest regret was rostering the 2 riskiest kickers IMO. Hopefully those of us who are cut this week will continue to visit this thread to cheer on those still in it. And don't forget, we still have a playoff subscriber contest!

Special thanks to @Puppies for sending kind words and fun stats. Best of luck to those still battling.
Sorry to hear it. Look on the bright side: it frees you up to start the "2023 Subscriber Contest" thread!
 
Injuries/benching finally caught up to me as 19 points below the cut with just Cade York left. Hoping for the greatest kicker game ever.
 
Well, at least I ain't sweating anymore. I'm in the clubhouse under the line with no one left. Based on @Puppies list above, the thread regulars took a beating this week. Sadly, I got ousted the first time I scored over 30 at QB. And yes, I know I sound like a broken record, but my biggest regret was rostering the 2 riskiest kickers IMO. Hopefully those of us who are cut this week will continue to visit this thread to cheer on those still in it. And don't forget, we still have a playoff subscriber contest!

Special thanks to @Puppies for sending kind words and fun stats. Best of luck to those still battling.

Damn, I remember you posting your team a few weeks ago and thinking you had a killer lineup
 
Contest facts for Defenses thus far...
- The average score is 5.77 PPG
- DAL is the highest scoring with 8.88 PPG, but ranks 18th in terms of survival rate
- DET is the lowest scoring with 3.29 PPG, but ranks 12th in terms of survival rate
- 13 of the contest D's were $5 and above. Only PHI ($5) has an above average survival rate
- 12 of the contest D's were $3. Only CHI & HOU have a below average survival rate
- PIT's 23 points in week 1 stands as the highest to date
- LV is the only team to record 2 goose eggs
- NO ($6) has got to be considered the biggest bust. Their 6 point high week is the lowest in the league.
- The Falcons ($3) were the rarest by far, rostered by a mere 92 teams. They are currently a top-10 D.
 
Contest facts for Defenses thus far...
- The average score is 5.77 PPG
- DAL is the highest scoring with 8.88 PPG, but ranks 18th in terms of survival rate
- DET is the lowest scoring with 3.29 PPG, but ranks 12th in terms of survival rate
- 13 of the contest D's were $5 and above. Only PHI ($5) has an above average survival rate
- 12 of the contest D's were $3. Only CHI & HOU have a below average survival rate
- PIT's 23 points in week 1 stands as the highest to date
- LV is the only team to record 2 goose eggs
- NO ($6) has got to be considered the biggest bust. Their 6 point high week is the lowest in the league.
- The Falcons ($3) were the rarest by far, rostered by a mere 92 teams. They are currently a top-10 D.
Seattle has been my rock on defense. I've used them 7 out of 8 times, averaging 7.75 points, and they are #1 on my team in points-per-$, at 18.33.

Edit: I'd be curious to know what the best-performing $3 defense is.
 
Contest facts for Defenses thus far...
- The average score is 5.77 PPG
- DAL is the highest scoring with 8.88 PPG, but ranks 18th in terms of survival rate
- DET is the lowest scoring with 3.29 PPG, but ranks 12th in terms of survival rate
- 13 of the contest D's were $5 and above. Only PHI ($5) has an above average survival rate
- 12 of the contest D's were $3. Only CHI & HOU have a below average survival rate
- PIT's 23 points in week 1 stands as the highest to date
- LV is the only team to record 2 goose eggs
- NO ($6) has got to be considered the biggest bust. Their 6 point high week is the lowest in the league.
- The Falcons ($3) were the rarest by far, rostered by a mere 92 teams. They are currently a top-10 D.
My $6 combo of Arizona and Minnesota is averaging just over 9 pts/wk. (bumped significantly by Az's 18 pt. week 7)
 
Contest facts for Defenses thus far...
- The average score is 5.77 PPG
- DAL is the highest scoring with 8.88 PPG, but ranks 18th in terms of survival rate
- DET is the lowest scoring with 3.29 PPG, but ranks 12th in terms of survival rate
- 13 of the contest D's were $5 and above. Only PHI ($5) has an above average survival rate
- 12 of the contest D's were $3. Only CHI & HOU have a below average survival rate
- PIT's 23 points in week 1 stands as the highest to date
- LV is the only team to record 2 goose eggs
- NO ($6) has got to be considered the biggest bust. Their 6 point high week is the lowest in the league.
- The Falcons ($3) were the rarest by far, rostered by a mere 92 teams. They are currently a top-10 D.
Seattle has been my rock on defense. I've used them 7 out of 8 times, averaging 7.75 points, and they are #1 on my team in points-per-$, at 18.33.
SEA has to be the biggest steal so far. For $3, you got yourself a team that has scored over the league average in all but 1 game. Only 1.3% of teams chose them, so give yourself a pat on the back. Well done!
 
Contest facts for Defenses thus far...
- The average score is 5.77 PPG
- DAL is the highest scoring with 8.88 PPG, but ranks 18th in terms of survival rate
- DET is the lowest scoring with 3.29 PPG, but ranks 12th in terms of survival rate
- 13 of the contest D's were $5 and above. Only PHI ($5) has an above average survival rate
- 12 of the contest D's were $3. Only CHI & HOU have a below average survival rate
- PIT's 23 points in week 1 stands as the highest to date
- LV is the only team to record 2 goose eggs
- NO ($6) has got to be considered the biggest bust. Their 6 point high week is the lowest in the league.
- The Falcons ($3) were the rarest by far, rostered by a mere 92 teams. They are currently a top-10 D.
My $6 combo of Arizona and Minnesota is averaging just over 9 pts/wk. (bumped significantly by Az's 18 pt. week 7)
Hey, that's my combo as well! Hope I didn't just jinx you :wink:
 
Things to Consider Monday night:

* The cut line moved 11.75 points during the Sunday 8pm game.
* We need to hope it does not move nearly that much on Monday night, or a lot more of us are in jeopardy.

* Key Monday Night Players / ownership: Chubb 464, McPherson 350, Mixon 241, York 168, Boyd 155, Burrow 150, H Henry 137, T Higgins 102, Hunt 64

Where we stand after the 8pm games.... Good Luck if you're close!

130.00-------- Tentative Cut Line ---- :cry:
129.90 Mister CIA Fan
129.10 Saint
124.00 Rock Action
122.80 The Winz
122.15 Scottybo
117.00 NittanyLion
112.95 BassNBrew
111.00 Hot Sauce Guy
105.20 RustyColts
104.90 cstruck
102.50 QuizGuy66
BRUTAL WEEK! Losing so many strong contributors!
Hoping you still have a few rounds in the chamber to hit the targets and survive another week!!
 
I'm nowhere near the contest # cruncher many on here are, but that seemed like a massive move for just 1 game last night. My cursory glance at the box score, nothing really stood out, but I didn't look that hard. I'm sure it's pretty obvious, but I don't have time to think about it...could one of you contest economy guys spell out the drivers of what seems to be a pretty big jump? Thanks!
 
Question for the contest vets: has the line ever moved less than 3.5 pts on a MNF game? That's my only hope at the moment.
My only regret was selecting only 5 WR and 4 of them ended up missing this week. Even with Chase inactive, 5 points from anyone else probably seals it.
Jalen Tolbert, Cameron Brate, and Zack Moss provided zero depth. D.Carr was also the same guy he has always been even with the best WR in football. Zero points coming out of the bye week against a bottom 5 defense. I can't imagine being a Raiders fan.
 
I'm nowhere near the contest # cruncher many on here are, but that seemed like a massive move for just 1 game last night. My cursory glance at the box score, nothing really stood out, but I didn't look that hard. I'm sure it's pretty obvious, but I don't have time to think about it...could one of you contest economy guys spell out the drivers of what seems to be a pretty big jump? Thanks!
Allen/Diggs were higher owned.
 
Contest facts for Kickers thus far...
- The average score (counting all 32 K's that were offered) is 7.31 PPG
- The average score (only counting weekly active kickers) is 8.65 PPG
- Nick Folk has the only 2 weeks with 20 or more points
- Jason Myers ($4) is currently K1 with 10.95 PPG. Only Santoso & Slye were less common from the start.
- @ZWK suggested Graham Gano as the safest $3 kicker, and he hasn't disappointed as K3
- 25% of the kickers offered were less common than Zane Gonzalez, who went on season-ending IR well before the contest closed
- 17 of the contest K's were $5 and above. Only 4 (Carlson, Hopkins, Lutz, Tucker) have an above average survival rate.
- 15 of the contest K's were $4 and below. Only 4 (Crosby, Gonzalez, Santoso, Slye) have a below average survival rate.
 
I'm struggling to find this from the previous weeks... what has been the average Monday night cut line movement?
It's been less than 10 points on avg. You should be good. What we really need is a TNF game on MNF where both offenses never get going and TDs are scored by backups.
We want all trick and no treat for these players :samurai:🎃 : Chubb 464, McPherson 350, Mixon 241, York 168, Boyd 155, Burrow 150.
 
I'm struggling to find this from the previous weeks... what has been the average Monday night cut line movement?

The average cut line movement through week 7 was 7.24 points. BUT, it's irrelevant because the cut line movement is more volatile as the number of surviving teams decreases. I think we're lucky if it moves less than 10 tonight, and sadly, that puts a few more folks on the bubble.
 
Contest facts for Kickers thus far...
- The average score (counting all 32 K's that were offered) is 7.31 PPG
- The average score (only counting weekly active kickers) is 8.65 PPG
- Nick Folk has the only 2 weeks with 20 or more points
- Jason Myers ($4) is currently K1 with 10.95 PPG. Only Santoso & Slye were less common from the start.
- @ZWK suggested Graham Gano as the safest $3 kicker, and he hasn't disappointed as K3
- 25% of the kickers offered were less common than Zane Gonzalez, who went on season-ending IR well before the contest closed
- 17 of the contest K's were $5 and above. Only 4 (Carlson, Hopkins, Lutz, Tucker) have an above average survival rate.
- 15 of the contest K's were $4 and below. Only 4 (Crosby, Gonzalez, Santoso, Slye) have a below average survival rate.
How about: Rod Blankenship, who has only kicked in 2 of the 8 weeks has a higher survival rate than Justin Tucker.
 
Question for the contest vets: has the line ever moved less than 3.5 pts on a MNF game? That's my only hope at the moment.
My only regret was selecting only 5 WR and 4 of them ended up missing this week. Even with Chase inactive, 5 points from anyone else probably seals it.
Jalen Tolbert, Cameron Brate, and Zack Moss provided zero depth. D.Carr was also the same guy he has always been even with the best WR in football. Zero points coming out of the bye week against a bottom 5 defense. I can't imagine being a Raiders fan.
I think the cut line movement last night (+11.75) was driven by a combination of some high scores by some highly owned players, plus the diminishing number of surviving teams, which I believe increases the impact.

Last night we had:

Doubs 17.7 (844 teams)
Tonyan 11.1 (479 teams) << might have had an impact with Kelsey on bye and so many TE's banged up
Allen 25.8 (478 teams)
Knox 10.00 (315 teams)
Diggs 22.8 (252 teams)
A. Jones 17.7 (258 teams)

We have some equally high ownership players tonight that could score big points.

At 14.70 points above the current cut line, I'd like to think I'm safe for week 8, but I know it's not guaranteed.
 
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Question for the contest vets: has the line ever moved less than 3.5 pts on a MNF game? That's my only hope at the moment.
My only regret was selecting only 5 WR and 4 of them ended up missing this week. Even with Chase inactive, 5 points from anyone else probably seals it.
Jalen Tolbert, Cameron Brate, and Zack Moss provided zero depth. D.Carr was also the same guy he has always been even with the best WR in football. Zero points coming out of the bye week against a bottom 5 defense. I can't imagine being a Raiders fan.
I think the Denver -Seattle MNF only moved 1-2 points week one, it was the only way I survived. You need the game to be ugly and low scoring with longshots doing the scoring.
 
Contest facts for Kickers thus far...
- The average score (counting all 32 K's that were offered) is 7.31 PPG
- The average score (only counting weekly active kickers) is 8.65 PPG
- Nick Folk has the only 2 weeks with 20 or more points
- Jason Myers ($4) is currently K1 with 10.95 PPG. Only Santoso & Slye were less common from the start.
- @ZWK suggested Graham Gano as the safest $3 kicker, and he hasn't disappointed as K3
- 25% of the kickers offered were less common than Zane Gonzalez, who went on season-ending IR well before the contest closed
- 17 of the contest K's were $5 and above. Only 4 (Carlson, Hopkins, Lutz, Tucker) have an above average survival rate.
- 15 of the contest K's were $4 and below. Only 4 (Crosby, Gonzalez, Santoso, Slye) have a below average survival rate.
How about: Rod Blankenship, who has only kicked in 2 of the 8 weeks has a higher survival rate than Justin Tucker.

Here's my take on Blankenship / Tucker...

Blankenship started out on 5,675 of the 12,254 teams, or 46.3% He is still present on 1,844 of the surviving 3,669 lineups through week 7, or 50.3%.
I think this indicates that although he may have been a deal-breaker for some teams, it clearly was not the majority of the teams that have been eliminated.

Tucker, at $7, started out on 1,180 of the 12,254 teams, or 9.62%. He is still present on 376 of the 3,669 surviving teams through week 7, or 10.25%

The overall contest survival rate is only 29.95%, so neither kicker was solely responsible for the elimination of very many teams. It was a combination of injuries, byes and poor performances by many players that caused teams to get a visit from the Turk.

Note that both kickers currently reside on a higher percentage surviving teams their precentage of ownership on the 12,254 teams starting out.
Blankenship increased his ownership by 8.639% from the beginning until now.... (4.0 / 46.3)
Tucker increased his ownership by 6.146% from the beginning until now... (.63 / 9.62)
 
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D.Carr was also the same guy he has always been even with the best WR in football. Zero points coming out of the bye week against a bottom 5 defense. I can't imagine being a Raiders fan.
So happy I traded him & a pile of c-tier/aging players for a pick that’s gonna be the 1.02 next year in my dynasty rebuild. :wub:
 
D.Carr was also the same guy he has always been even with the best WR in football. Zero points coming out of the bye week against a bottom 5 defense. I can't imagine being a Raiders fan.
So happy I traded him & a pile of c-tier/aging players for a pick that’s gonna be the 1.02 next year in my dynasty rebuild. :wub:
He's a super nice guy and talented but doesn't have that killer instinct. Like I just want to see dark side Derek Carr just once, where he unleashes a rage filled 5 TD Sith onslaught to avenge the fact that he was only the 4th QB selected in the 2014 draft after the likes of Bortles, Manziel, and some guy named Teddy.
 
D.Carr was also the same guy he has always been even with the best WR in football. Zero points coming out of the bye week against a bottom 5 defense. I can't imagine being a Raiders fan.
So happy I traded him & a pile of c-tier/aging players for a pick that’s gonna be the 1.02 next year in my dynasty rebuild. :wub:
He's a super nice guy and talented but doesn't have that killer instinct. Like I just want to see dark side Derek Carr just once, where he unleashes a rage filled 5 TD Sith onslaught to avenge the fact that he was only the 4th QB selected in the 2014 draft after the likes of Bortles, Manziel, and some guy named Teddy.
He doesn’t have it in him. He even grew evil Cartman facial hair and it didn’t help.
 

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