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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

Assuming my math is correct....

At the half, I have:

Ackme +9.10 to 158.50
DaCommish +3.20 to 140.35,
ScottyBo +3.50 to 125.65,
RustyColts +5.20 to 110.40

Update at 3:10 in 3rd quarter.... The good news for holding down the cut line is... with the score now 25-0, only 20 teams have Amari Cooper and 25 have Jacobi Brissett. So far,
Chubb is probably the biggest push on the cut line.
 
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Assuming my math is correct....

After 3 quarters, I have...

Ackme +13.50 to 162.90
DaCommish +7.60 to 144.75
ScottyBo +5.85 to 128.00
RustyColts +9.60 to 114.80
QuizGuy66 +3.30 to 105.80

UPDATE: At 14:15 in the 4th.... (after the Boyd TD)

Ackme +13.50 to 162.90
DaCommish +11.60 to 148.75
ScottyBo +21.00 to 143.15 <<== Just hopped over the cut line
NittanyLion +6.00 to 123.00
RustyColts +9.60 to 114.80
QuizGuy66 +3.30 to 105.80

UPDATE: AT 8:46 in the 4th... (after the 2nd Chubb TD)

Ackme +14.50 to 163.90
DaCommish +14.10 to 151.25
ScottyBo +21.00 to 143.15 <<== Just hopped over the cut line
NittanyLion +6.40 to 123.40
RustyColts +12.10 to 117.30
QuizGuy66 +3.30 to 105.80
 
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I'm struggling to find this from the previous weeks... what has been the average Monday night cut line movement?
It's been less than 10 points on avg. You should be good. What we really need is a TNF game on MNF where both offenses never get going and TDs are scored by backups.
We want all trick and no treat for these players :samurai:🎃 : Chubb 464, McPherson 350, Mixon 241, York 168, Boyd 155, Burrow 150.
464 having Chubb making me nervous the Turk is going to move more than 9 points...
 
AT 6:48 in the 4th... (after the Higgins TD)

if my math is correct...:ponder:

Ackme +18.70 to 168.10
davidwwb +5.90 to 144.10
DaCommish +14.80 to 151.95
ScottyBo +29.75 to 151.90
NittanyLion +6.40 to 123.40
RustyColts +12.10 to 117.30
QuizGuy66 +8.70 to 111.20


At end of game......... (edit at 11:20pm)

Ackme +18.70 to 168.10
davidwwb +5.90 to 144.10
DaCommish +20.10 to 157.25
ScottyBo +30.45 to 152.60
NittanyLion +6.40 to 123.40
RustyColts +18.10 to 123.30
QuizGuy66 +11.60 to 114.10

ScottyBo
hopped over the cut line tonight, and several teams above the Sunday night cut line got a little more wiggle room.
I tracked every team that was in the 140's or under...

Now we cross our fingers and wait to see the final cut line.
 
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Average Points per Week - Through 8 weeks:

Survived Week 8: (Good Luck in week 9) ...none of this means anything unless you make it to week 15


178.91 aPalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 DaCommish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.28 FormerFourDigit
166.06 Fear the Bald
165.59 Baededel Moon
164.94 Puppies
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
163.60 davidwb
162.98 Irelad
160.06 ZWK (corrected)
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 Da_Budman
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.97 Stubby
153.72 BroncosFan07


Appointments with "the Turk" - week 8: (Sorry to see you go...) :cry:

172.48 The Stray Doug
165.44 QuizGuy66
162.26 Saint
160.73 TheWinz
159.55 Mister CIA fan
156.58 RustyColts
153.57 BassNBrew
152.47 Hot Sauce Guy
150.62 Rock Action
149.59 cstruck
148.48 Twin Turbo
144.96 NittanyLion
 
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Week 8 was a bloodbath! Of the 29 that were still eligible for one (or two) of Joe's $100 offers, we lost 14. Please bid a fond farewell to: @BassNBrew @BEGG Squad @cstruk @Grid71 @Hot Sauce Guy @IHEARTFF @IndyCasey @QuizGuy66 @rockaction @rustycolts @Saint @themeanmachine @TheWinz @TwinTurbo

Alright, that's enough crying. Time to congratulate the remaining 15 teams: @Ackme @ajm27501 @apalmer @bamabuddha @Dacomish @dbc925 @dzambo @menobrown @Monty Burns @Puppies @Ruffrodys05 @rzrback77 @scoobus @scottybo @ZWK

Special shout out to @apalmer and @Dacomish as the only 2 still in the running for both of Joe's $100 offers
And finally, I have to bring attention to @Ruffrodys05 because he/she posted his/her roster way back on 24 August. Honestly, I don't know if he/she even knows if they are in this little side contest of Joe's.

Good luck folks!
 
Sorry to see so many of our regulars go down.

[moment of silence}

But, as we must, on to Week 9: I'll be missing a bunch of guys--my Pickett/Trubisky backup combo at QB, Chubb at RB, Pickens & Sutton at WR, Schultz & Gano. I'm already getting nervous, but the guys I'll have left would have scored 158 this week (plus I'll get JuJu back) and with 6 NFL teams on byes, I expect most teams will have similar problems, so, hopefully, we'll have a low cut line (at least that was the thinking when I put the team together). The upside is that if I survive this week, I'll essentially be done with byes for the rest of the year with only Stevenson in Week 10, Zay Jones in Week 11, Eno and the Zona D in Week 13 and Edwards (who?) in Week 14. That should be an advantage when the cuts get really deep.
 
On to week 9 and another 30% cut, here is how things sit going forward as best I can figure:

Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9927 9926
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8935 8939
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 7148 7152
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5719 5726
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4576 4582
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3661 3666
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2563 NEW 2569
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1795 NEW 1799
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1257 NEW 1260
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 880 NEW 882
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 616 NEW 618
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 370 NEW 371
40% Week 14 cut to Number - 222 NEW 223 (this means the 2 highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)
 
Sorry to see so many active regulars go out this week! I haven’t been able to post or visit as much due to a new bambino but it was good to catch up on all the talk.

I finished top ten last year and am still in it but definitely don’t have the same confidence in my roster as last year. Will post it when I get a chance.
 
Week 8 Statistical Trivia and other random thoughts....

28 = Roster size with the highest year-to-date survival rate through 8 weeks @ 31.71% (#27 was highest through week 7)
18 = Roster size with the lowest year-to-date survival rate through 8 weeks @ 16.56%

28 = Roster size with the lowest elimination rate in week 8 @ 18.75% :popcorn:
18 = Roster size with the highest elimination rate in week 8 @ 35.68% (highest 5 weeks in a row) :wall:

The top 8 roster sizes in terms of best year-to-date survival rate are all between 23 and 30.
Through 8 weeks, we have completed only 57% of the qualifying phase of the contest, but 79% of the teams that started out have now been eliminated.

The overall survival rate in week 8 for all teams was 70.04% with the 30% cut line;
FootballGuys Staff survival rate in week 8 was 77.78%.

@TheWinz ... 48% of the teams that still qualifed for the @Joe Bryant "$100 derby" were eliminated in week 8. :cry:

At the start of the contest, 222 teams of the 12,254 that started were projected to make the finals.
After 8 weeks, 223 of the 2,569 surviving teams are now projected to make the finals.
If your team survived this far, pat yourself on the back. Your statistical chance of reaching the finals is 479.6% better now than it was at the start of the contest.:drive:

Bye week blues in week 9?... or is it the other way around? 18.75% of the NFL teams are on bye in week 9.
Generally the cut line tends to be lower when more teams are on bye, but ultimately it depends on the number of high scoring individual players that play for those teams. Nothing is absolute.

For those who are still alive.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkX2XPmHYl4

Good Luck in week 9!
 
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I definitely don't post nearly as much as others, but I'm equally sad to the number of "regulars" we lost this week. My time will be soon.
 
Average Points per Week - Through 8 weeks:

Survived Week 8: (Good Luck in week 9) ...none of this means anything unless you make it to week 15


178.91 aPalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 DaCommish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.28 FormerFourDigit
166.06 Fear the Bald
165.59 Baededel Moon
164.94 Puppies
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
163.60 davidwb
162.98 Irelad
159.81 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 Da_Budman
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.97 Stubby
153.72 BroncosFan07


Appointments with "the Turk" - week 8: (Sorry to see you go...) :cry:

172.48 The Stray Doug
165.44 QuizGuy66
162.26 Saint
160.73 TheWinz
159.55 Mister CIA fan
156.58 RustyColts
153.57 BassNBrew
152.47 Hot Sauce Guy
150.62 Rock Action
149.59 cstruck
148.48 Twin Turbo
144.96 NittanyLion
after my best week of the year I am still 5th from the bottom on this list..... which means I have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this thing..... but hey week 8 was my best finish in this thing so I figure I am playing with house money at this point. Good luck to everyone left and sad to see you go to those who visited the turk. Has a regular in this thread ever won this thing???
 
I looked through 40 or so teams that just made the cut by a point, and I saw 3 Mixons, 3 Chubbs, 1 Burrow, 1 Higgins, 1 Chubb+Higgins, and then this guy who survived McPherson's missed FG followed by his missed XP, only to finally make it through on his successful 4th quarter XP: https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/112137/week/8 (oh and these guys too: https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110953/week/8, https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109538/week/8). Of course, that's in retrospect, at the time they didn't know that was the difference maker since we don't have live scoring / live cut line, but beggars can't be choosers. :)

The other 30 or so teams I looked at were just clinging on with nobody going on Monday night.
 
after my best week of the year I am still 5th from the bottom on this list..... which means I have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this thing..... but hey week 8 was my best finish in this thing so I figure I am playing with house money at this point. Good luck to everyone left and sad to see you go to those who visited the turk. Has a regular in this thread ever won this thing???
I came close (2nd)
 
I looked through 40 or so teams that just made the cut by a point, and I saw 3 Mixons, 3 Chubbs, 1 Burrow 1 Higgins, 1 Chubb+Higgins, and then this guy who survived McPherson's missed FG followed by missed XP, and then made it through on his successful 4th quarter XP: https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/112137/week/8 (oh and these guys too: https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110953/week/8, https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109538/week/8)

The other 30 or so teams I looked at were just clinging on with nobody going on Monday night.
I was one of those clinging on with nobody, was 9 points above the cut going into Monday night. I went to bed before the cut line refreshed, and even dreamed last night that the cut line was above 140 and I was out, haha!!!
 
yeah, sorry to see so many of regular posters go! I don’t post much but enjoye reading the posts…

i like my team this year…injuries definitely making me worry some…but would like to get past week 10 (week 10 is the longest I have hung in during previous contest)
 
What a bloodbath in Week 8, including Yours Truly with a bunch of regulars. Oh well... time to start prepping for 2023!!!!

On a side note, looking at the running list of Top 5 scores each week, Week 8 is now the bloodiest week with 6 of our prior champions going down. We wish thee fond farewell to Entry 100744, 110840, swagmeowt, 109331, 100872, and 109432. Several of these teams were your top scorer overall, as well as our points leader.... so that means we have a new Points Leader!

Here's a look at our Top 5 runners since week 1... (Another shoutout to Scottybo, who is still in the squad!)
  • We have had 40 different teams score in the top 5. Of the current survivors, we have had 5 teams in the Top 50 multiple times
    • 2 x 18 person roosters (103499, 100376), 1 x 19 person roosters (111472), 1 x 20 person roosters (schoon), 1 x 22 person rooster (GetUpKraeperdick)
  • Our leader in points (100872) went down in Week #8. Welcome to Schoon (https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109864/week/8) our new leading points average at 185.40.
  • The average pts per week of the folks that have placed in Top 5 is 172.40
  • We have lost 17 teams that have placed in the Top 5 since Week 1. The average loss rate through the contest is 48.57%. The bloodiest week was Week 8 with six eliminations.
  • The average pts per week of all eliminated Top 5 teams has been 169.99.
  • The turk average has been 128.86 pts.
 
What a bloodbath in Week 8, including Yours Truly with a bunch of regulars. Oh well... time to start prepping for 2023!!!!

On a side note, looking at the running list of Top 5 scores each week, Week 8 is now the bloodiest week with 6 of our prior champions going down. We wish thee fond farewell to Entry 100744, 110840, swagmeowt, 109331, 100872, and 109432. Several of these teams were your top scorer overall, as well as our points leader.... so that means we have a new Points Leader!

Here's a look at our Top 5 runners since week 1... (Another shoutout to Scottybo, who is still in the squad!)
  • We have had 40 different teams score in the top 5. Of the current survivors, we have had 5 teams in the Top 50 multiple times
    • 2 x 18 person roosters (103499, 100376), 1 x 19 person roosters (111472), 1 x 20 person roosters (schoon), 1 x 22 person rooster (GetUpKraeperdick)
  • Our leader in points (100872) went down in Week #8. Welcome to Schoon (https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109864/week/8) our new leading points average at 185.40.
  • The average pts per week of the folks that have placed in Top 5 is 172.40
  • We have lost 17 teams that have placed in the Top 5 since Week 1. The average loss rate through the contest is 48.57%. The bloodiest week was Week 8 with six eliminations.
  • The average pts per week of all eliminated Top 5 teams has been 169.99.
  • The turk average has been 128.86 pts.

A subtle reminder to build a lineup designed for durability and long term survival rather than the most points. No joy in having the highest overall average score only to hear the Turk knocking on the door prior to week 15. :frown:

It totally sucks losing so many from our gang so early...
 
after my best week of the year I am still 5th from the bottom on this list..... which means I have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this thing..... but hey week 8 was my best finish in this thing so I figure I am playing with house money at this point. Good luck to everyone left and sad to see you go to those who visited the turk. Has a regular in this thread ever won this thing???
I came close (2nd)
You are still in it Let that sink in !! How many teams scoring a lot more than yours and mine so far, were escorted off the premises by the Turk this week? The real contest is surviving to week 15; not scoring the most points. For teams that accomplish that rare feat, all bets are off for the prizes because everyone is equal again and nothing that happened in the first 14 weeks counts for anything. Plus... with Joe's bonus offer this year, you have a shot at an additional $100 just by making it there. Live long... and prosper!!
 
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Average Points per Week - Through 8 weeks:

Survived Week 8: (Good Luck in week 9) ...none of this means anything unless you make it to week 15


178.91 aPalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 DaCommish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.28 FormerFourDigit
166.06 Fear the Bald
165.59 Baededel Moon
164.94 Puppies
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
163.60 davidwb
162.98 Irelad
159.81 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 Da_Budman
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.97 Stubby
153.72 BroncosFan07


Appointments with "the Turk" - week 8: (Sorry to see you go...) :cry:

172.48 The Stray Doug
165.44 QuizGuy66
162.26 Saint
160.73 TheWinz
159.55 Mister CIA fan
156.58 RustyColts
153.57 BassNBrew
152.47 Hot Sauce Guy
150.62 Rock Action
149.59 cstruck
148.48 Twin Turbo
144.96 NittanyLion
after my best week of the year I am still 5th from the bottom on this list..... which means I have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this thing..... but hey week 8 was my best finish in this thing so I figure I am playing with house money at this point. Good luck to everyone left and sad to see you go to those who visited the turk. Has a regular in this thread ever won this thing???
Didn't @menobrown win one year?
 
Tuesday Trade News !! (today is the trade deadline)

RB Chase Edmonds MIA (510 teams), traded to Denver Broncos

RB Nyheim Hines IND,
(197 teams) Traded to Buffalo Bills

RB Zack Moss BUF
(187 teams) Traded to Indianapolis Colts

WR Chase Claypool PIT,
(36 teams) traded to Chicago Bears

TE T.J. Hockenson DET
(102 teams) traded to Minnesota Vikings.
 
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Average Points per Week - Through 8 weeks:

Survived Week 8: (Good Luck in week 9) ...none of this means anything unless you make it to week 15


178.91 aPalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 DaCommish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.28 FormerFourDigit
166.06 Fear the Bald
165.59 Baededel Moon
164.94 Puppies
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
163.60 davidwb
162.98 Irelad
159.81 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 Da_Budman
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.97 Stubby
153.72 BroncosFan07


Appointments with "the Turk" - week 8: (Sorry to see you go...) :cry:

172.48 The Stray Doug
165.44 QuizGuy66
162.26 Saint
160.73 TheWinz
159.55 Mister CIA fan
156.58 RustyColts
153.57 BassNBrew
152.47 Hot Sauce Guy
150.62 Rock Action
149.59 cstruck
148.48 Twin Turbo
144.96 NittanyLion
after my best week of the year I am still 5th from the bottom on this list..... which means I have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this thing..... but hey week 8 was my best finish in this thing so I figure I am playing with house money at this point. Good luck to everyone left and sad to see you go to those who visited the turk. Has a regular in this thread ever won this thing???
Didn't @menobrown win one year?
Yes I did, great recall!
 
RB: 5 for $67
(my typical build: 4.7 for $81)
(others' typical build: 5.3 for $83)
5.7% Christian McCaffrey - CAR/13 - $37
22.0% Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
59.3% Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
14.3% Jeff Wilson - SF/9 - $3
6.2% Zack Moss - BUF/7 - $3
One Dameon Pierce trade short of completing the set.
 
Average Points per Week - Through 8 weeks:

Survived Week 8: (Good Luck in week 9) ...none of this means anything unless you make it to week 15


178.91 aPalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 DaCommish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.28 FormerFourDigit
166.06 Fear the Bald
165.59 Baededel Moon
164.94 Puppies
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
163.60 davidwb
162.98 Irelad
159.81 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 Da_Budman
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.97 Stubby
153.72 BroncosFan07


Appointments with "the Turk" - week 8: (Sorry to see you go...) :cry:

172.48 The Stray Doug
165.44 QuizGuy66
162.26 Saint
160.73 TheWinz
159.55 Mister CIA fan
156.58 RustyColts
153.57 BassNBrew
152.47 Hot Sauce Guy
150.62 Rock Action
149.59 cstruck
148.48 Twin Turbo
144.96 NittanyLion
Basically irrelevant unless it's a sign of a larger bug, but I have 160.1 ppg rather than 159.81 (154.95, 144.9, 165.15, 201.8, 154.2, 143.25, 162.65, 153.55).
 
Tuesday Trade News !! (today is the trade deadline)

RB Chase Edmonds MIA (510 teams), traded to Denver Broncos

RB Nyheim Hines IND,
(197 teams) Traded to Buffalo Bills

RB Zack Moss BUF
(187 teams) Traded to Indianapolis Colts

WR Chase Claypool PIT,
(36 teams) traded to Chicago Bears

TE T.J. Hockenson DET
(102 teams) traded to Minnesota Vikings.
And to think I own NONE OF THEM!! LOL
 
Tough week. Missed the cut by 1.35 pts. Was down to only 12 active players with only Kupp at WR, no Chase. CMC was a monster. I think I was one of the only forum regulars that had him. Really liked my team to go further but the achilles heel was Carr (and Josh McDaniels). Jonathan Taylor also vastly underperformed this year but I have a feeling the Colts turn it on now.
 
Here is my roster with most recent scoring:

QB Lamar Jackson - $1928.20
QB Davis Mills - $713.40
QB Tyler Huntley - $30.00
RB Saquon Barkley - $2613.70
RB Rhamondre Stevenson - $1517.80
RB Dameon Pierce - $1012.60
RB Jerick McKinnon - $8
RB Rachaad White - $85.80
RB Jeff Wilson - $34.50
RB KeShawn Vaughn - $30.00
WR A.J. Brown - $2339.60
WR Jaylen Waddle - $2030.60
WR Jerry Jeudy - $1718.30
WR Hunter Renfrow - $151.60
WR Elijah Moore - $130.00
WR Isaiah McKenzie - $68.00
TE Kyle Pitts - $2421.50
TE Dallas Goedert - $1515.40
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $30.00
PK Graham Gano - $38.60
PK Austin Seibert - $30.00
TD New York Jets - $38.00
TD Jacksonville Jaguars - $3
 
I think the best thing that happened trade-wise is for those of us that have Pickens. Claypool's targets should go to him for the most part. Diontae isn't performing as well this year.
 
Tuesday Trade News !! (today is the trade deadline)

RB Chase Edmonds MIA (510 teams), traded to Denver Broncos

RB Nyheim Hines IND,
(197 teams) Traded to Buffalo Bills

RB Zack Moss BUF
(187 teams) Traded to Indianapolis Colts

WR Chase Claypool PIT,
(36 teams) traded to Chicago Bears

TE T.J. Hockenson DET
(102 teams) traded to Minnesota Vikings.
I’m thinking the Hockenson trade to Minnesota will likely boost targets to Amon-Ra St.Brown.
 
I think I found an error that will get me back in the contest. For some reason Carr was scored at .005 pts per yard instead of .05.
 
I think I found an error that will get me back in the contest. For some reason Carr was scored at .005 pts per yard instead of .05.
As much as I wish you were correct about Carr, It doesn't appear that you are.
Derek Carr had....
101 yards passing x .05 = 5.05
1 interception = (-1.00)
-1 yard rushing = ( - 0.10)
It adds up to 3.95 total points, and was reported a such.
 

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