I hope you have 20 minutes to spare to read this. Enjoy...
Rotation:
PG: McCollum (32), Curry (10), Dragic (6)
SG: Curry (16), McCollum (4), Harris (22), Hield (6)
SF: Barton (28), Barnes (6), Hield (14)
PF: Green (16), Barnes (26), Ingles (6)
Gobert (32), Green (16)
Team Theory: Offensively, this team will have two very separate personalities. Style #1 with the starters (i.e. Gobert @ C) – PnR the hell out of the other team. McCollum, Barton, Curry, Hield, Dragic, Ingles, and Walker are all fantastic PnR ball handlers and Gobert is the best PnR roll man and on ball screener of this generation. Style #2 with the bench (i.e. Green @ C) – we’ll be playing the beautiful game. ### loads of cutting, off ball screening, shooting, and ball movement. Nobody is at Steph Curry’s level of shooting on the roster, but everybody that will play when Green is at center are significant plus shooters on plus volume and generally all have high BBIQ. We are keeping players in their natural roles with similar usages to what they are in real life, so there won’t be over extended players losing efficiency, or conversely, underutilized players that are getting upset or not using their full skill set.
Defensively, we have the two best defenders in the league in Draymond and Gobert, and some other plus defenders that can keep capably handle tough perimeter matchups (Barnes, Barton, Harris). There are definitely going to be some weak defensive lineups that make it on the court with Gobert and Green, but in late game situations a near other worldly defensively lineup could be rolled out with Harris/Barnes/Green/Gobert.
The starting and closing lineups will be a bit in flux and I still can’t figure it out and I imagine that it will significantly depend on who I’m playing and the game situation. The closing lineup will probably go big with Barnes/Green/Gobert in the front court with McCollum and one of Harris/Barton/Curry in the backcourt depending on matchups (or maybe Harris/Barton/Barnes/Green/Gobert if we need a stop). The starting lineups will more typically be a little smaller with more ball handling (McCollum/Curry/Barton/Green/Gobert).
Center - Rudy Gobert – Key Stats (NBA rank): 18 pp36, 16.7 rp36 (#1), .728 TS% (#1) 137.0 Ortg (#2) 101.4 Drtg (#2)
The most underrated player of this generation, and I don’t mean that as hyperbole. He has constantly been on elite offenses and defenses since 14-15 – the defense people understand (as well as the rebounding… he’s a ####### silly good defensive rebounder), but the offense people don’t since it isn’t his box score stats that benefit. He sets the best screens in the NBA, he has fantastic hands for a big man, he’s very long and very bouncy, one of the better offense rebounders, and never misses near the hoop.
Power Forward - Draymond Green – Key Stats: Per 36 – 9.5 p/9.1 r/8.8 a/1.7 s/1.4 b (nobody has ever reached that stat line), .581 TS%.
The most versatile defender the NBA has seen since Dennis Rodman and he has bounced back to play his best basketball ball of his career or at least since 15-16. Similar to Gobert, people understand how good he is defensively but also helps drive a very good offense as the Warriors lead initiator. The offensive fit with Gobert will take some work and it won’t be ideal for the 16 mpg they will play together, but Green plays most of his minutes next to Kevon Looney who rarely takes jumpers (about 1 every other game at about 25%) and often plays with other non-shooters like Iguodala, JTA, Gary Payton II, and Kuminga.
Small Forward - Will Barton – Key Stats: Per 36 – 17.2p/5.5r/4.6a, 9.5 3pt/100pos (37.5%), .551 TS%, 21.7% USG
A great glue player as he is amazingly somewhere between above average and good at everything on the court. He’s a good three-point shooter that takes a healthy number of threes both off the dribble (2.6/game @ 35.0%) and off catch and shoots (3.6/game @ 39.9%), he’s a very capable ball handler and passer who has often played backup PG for the Nuggets, he’s a plus defender who can credibly guard both SGs and SFs and is money around the hoop with his athleticism and crafty finishes (73.1% at the rim).
Shooting Guard - Seth Curry – Key Stats: Per 36 -15.5p/3.5r/4.2a, 8.0 3pt/100 (40.0%), .603 TS%, 18.6% USG
Steph Curry’s little brother has made himself into a ridiculously useful NBA player and one of the most accurate three-point shooters of all time (#5 all time at 43.7%, a full percentage point ahead of his brother). While he is a better player off ball, he is a capable pick and roll ball handler (84th %ile in efficiency on 5 possessions per game), and driver (only three players in the NBA are more efficient on more drives per game). He’ll mostly play SG, but on guard heavy lineups with Green at C, he’ll play some defacto PG.
Point Guard - CJ McCollum – Key Stats: Per 36 – 21.0p/4.3r/4.6a, 11.2 3pt/100 (38.4%), .532 TS%, 26.3% USG
McCollum is a fantastic shot creator, both inside and outside the arc, like really elite. Not necessarily a skill I like to see overutilized, but he is also possibly the best difficult mid-range shot maker in the NBA which could end up being especially useful with Green and Gobert on the court in late game situations. With the other ball handlers, his role should be fairly similar to Portland, just with more depth of shooters around him.
6th Man (Forward) - Harrison Barnes – Key stats: Per 36: 18.3p/6.5r/2.7a, 7.1 3pt/100 (41.2%), .623 TS%, 19.4% USG
Barnes is probably my 4th best player and will typically close out games and occasionally start, depending on match up. While he’ll never live up to the pre-UNC hype, he has quietly become a very good all around player that is a very good secondary defender, shoots the ####### lights out, can actually dribble a basketball (9.1 drives per game!) and has a Hardenian free throw rate of .498 (this is like 99th percentile for a non-rim running big).
Wing – Buddy Hield – Key Stats: Per 36: 18.1p/5.1r/2.4a, 15.1 3pt/100 (36.8%), .540 TS%, 22.3% USG
Over the last half decade Hield has been the second most prolific three point shooter behind only Steph Curry. He has MADE 3.3 three pointers per game over the last 5 seasons at 40.1%. While certainly not a lead guard (and he won’t be asked to be), he’s a good tertiary ball handler and play maker and is a smart offensive player. Defensively, he’s more meh than terrible. That’s all we need.
Perimeter Stopper – Gary Harris – Key Stats: 8.1 3pt/100 (38.8%)
Harris is an elite defender at the 1 and 2 and a very good defender at the 3. That has been the case for the last 5 years but his shot completely abandoned him after his leg injuries in 2018, 2019, and 2020 but he is back! For what amounts to a defensive specialist, he may not be the best shooter, defender, or ball handler, but he very well may be the best combination of those three.
Backup PG - Goran Dragic
He’ll play a small role game to game, playing 6-10 mpg mostly in the back half of the 1st and 3rd quarters, exclusively with Gobert. He’s great at driving to the basket and putting pressure on the rim, a very good PnR ball handler, a good and willing three point shooter, and gets to the FT line at a very healthy rate. If he sucks, Kemba Walker will get a chance. If Walker also sucks, Curry will play more PG, and Hield and Harris will play a couple more MPG.
Australian - Joe Ingles
His stats have taken a step back this season. Some of that is age regression, some of it is bad luck (his three point shooting especially), and some of it is a reduction of role. What I am confident about – he’s still a uniquely talented point forward with elite BBIQ, a sweet stroke, and the ability to run a second unit offense.
6th String PG – Kemba Walker
When (if?) healthy, he is one of the preeminent pick and roll players in the NBA as he can get all the way to the rim with ease and also shoots maybe more off the dribble threes than anybody else in the NBA other than Harden and Doncic. Let’s just pretend he’s been Lowry or Conley’s backup all season playing 15 mpg.
3rd String Center/Rapper – Plumdog Millionaire
He is a legitimate starting center who at his best runs the court like a gazelle, plays some nifty defense, rebounds at an elite level, and can handle and move the ball like a player much smaller than himself. Other than his Joakim Noah-like jump shot, he is one of the most skilled centers in the league.