II am aware of the history with Denver and I am aware of the narrative. I would have to see the full list of games he has missed over the last 4 years to feel more strongly about it. He has a lot of injuries just in general, so I still don’t think that it can be concluded that he is ducking, he is perfectly capable of just sulking around the court when better teams are beating him.
You can go look at his game logs on Basketball Reference as easy as I can. Go take a peek. He's not missing a chance to play the Pistons, Spurs, and their ilk on the road.
I have reviewed all of the logs and will be preparing a summary later. Everyone has been warned.
I actually forgot that the bb-ref game logs show all the team games, not just the one the play played in.
So, this is Embiid's 7th full season in the league. During that time, the Sixers have played 517 games. Embiid has missed 121 of them.
I categorized those 121 games by whether they were single games, 1 of a 2-game absence, the last game of an absence of 3 games or more, or the start or a middle of a 3-game absence or more. I deemed the first 3 categories to be potential "duck" games, which I think is generous. (Full transparency: There were 2 games that technically fit in cagtegory 3, but they were the last game of an extended west-coast trip, so I didn't think that they counted. I am also considering a 2017 game @ Denver to be a "duck" game even though Denver wasn't really a championship contender that year, since games in Denver are the main root of this narrative.)
59 of the 121 games missed could be considered "duck" games. Of those 59, there were 25 that I consider to be against a "good" team, which I count as either a clear home-court advantage playoff team or a clear lower-end playoff team. Those games break down as follows:
Top Contender (Away) - 13 |
Top Contender (Home) - 6 |
Solid Playoff Team (Away) - 5 |
Solid Playoff Team (Home) - 1 |
So 13-18 games in 7 years would fit into the conventional "ducking" narrative. That includes 3 games in Denver, 2 games in Memphis and 2 in Utah (also 1 in PHI vs. DEN and 2 vs. MEM). Those are the most disproportionately represented game conditions.
I would have to do the same thing with other top stars to determine whether this is really such an outlier, but on the surface, it is not obvious to me that it is. I still maintain that it feels like a bigger thing because of the high-profile games missed against Denver and the fact that Embiid is injured a lot.
I also agree with these points:
-It is totally bizarre that Embiid was not even listed on the injury report at all and then suddenly was listed as out.
-That the fact that Maxey and Harris (and others) were out led to an organizational decision to sit Embiid, who did have a legitimate injury that he re-aggravated in the Pacers' game that I saw as it happened.
-That when there is a choice in his overall health management, the Sixers' organization as a whole favors having him sit out games that they have a better than 50% chance to lose even if he plays.
Happy to share the data so that anyone can have their own forensic data teams conduct a full audit...