Stoneworker
Footballguy
Lol. Ok.
So many adjustments occur between two top teams playing a seven-game series you have no idea how it would go. No one does
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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
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So many adjustments occur between two top teams playing a seven-game series you have no idea how it would go. No one does
msudaisy26
Footballguy
That is why I said right now. A lot can change.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Dallas crapped the bed big time against a weak Philly team.
I'd say that makes two games in a row where the officiating was more playoff like and Dallas just melted down about it. Add in the frankly weird rotations and horrible mental lapses on defense, and the biggest holdback continues to be Kidd as coach.
Where's our resident Bucks fan(s)? Is this basically the same experience Milwaukee had with Kidd? Great effort turnaround early, well-liked by players, but poor tactics and rotations?
Dallas should be 3-1 in the last 4, not 1-3.
I'd say that makes two games in a row where the officiating was more playoff like and Dallas just melted down about it. Add in the frankly weird rotations and horrible mental lapses on defense, and the biggest holdback continues to be Kidd as coach.
Where's our resident Bucks fan(s)? Is this basically the same experience Milwaukee had with Kidd? Great effort turnaround early, well-liked by players, but poor tactics and rotations?
Dallas should be 3-1 in the last 4, not 1-3.
Instinctive
Footballguy
That was not my impression today or against Boston.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
A young Kareem and an aging but still potent Oscar Robertson were on that team. Jon McGlocklin, too.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
At first I thought Doris Burke was doing Knicks - Cavs by herself, then realized it’s not Doris at all. Beth Mowins and Stephanie White.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Just the type of minutes my salary cap team needs
Kev4029
Footballguy
The most Thibs thing ever.
the moops
Footballguy
Interesting. I am not one to dog elite offensive players for not going all out on defense, especially in somewhat meaningless games in the middle of the season. But there seem to way too many just not even trying defensive possessions to overlook
He can’t be expected to complain incessantly AND play defense. What unrealistic standards you have.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Tatum pulls it off somehow.
Instinctive
Footballguy
The complaining was so bad on Sunday. That's what I mean by wilting with playoff-style officiating. They (pretty consistently for both teams and all 4 quarters, except when someone breather on Kyle Lowry for some reason) let a lot of the stupid little stuff go.
That's how basketball should be played anyway, but Luka just whines instead of using his like inches and pounds advantage to just be more physical and bully guys.
Defensively, maybe my bar is too low, but he had possessions in both games where he switched and then was in a stance staying in front of and/or bothering the shot of Tatum, Maxey, and others. That's miles ahead of previous seasons.
Coming out of the all star break he locked up Booker 2-3 times and Booker started calling for a pick whenever Luka had been switched onto him. Which was extra enjoyable.
Moe.
Footballguy
Thunder got the win on the road against PHX last night (no Booker), but that type of game is why they are going to be a popular upset pick in the first round. Nurkic had 31 f’n rebounds. The Thunder are the best in the league at generating turnovers, and they rely on that to cancel out the lack of rebounding, but you gotta think teams will tighten that up in the playoffs. Dallas is the matchup I do not want in round 1, as they don’t turn it over and will slaughter the Thunder on the boards. Hoping for Kings (sorry guys) or Suns.
I’d be happy if the Kings just make the playoffs and certainly wouldn’t think they were likely to beat anyone if they get there. And no one has been higher on OKC this year on this board than me. But the Kings do match up fairly well with OKC and I think that would be a tougher series than OKC would want. The Kings would have a punchers chance.
Moe.
Footballguy
Yeah, I don’t disagree with you. There are no “good” matchups for the Thunder really, it’s going to be tough no matter what.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Boston has been playing so well lately that the analytics make them appear close to unbeatable. Based on ESPN's BPI, they are projected to win 67 games. In the Celtics remaining 22 games, they are favored in all of them (according to BPI), and their lowest projected win percentages are road games with CLE (67.5%), MIL (67.6%), DEN (69.7%), and NO (69.7%). The only other game under 80% is at PHX (75.6%). No doubt they've been a wagon, but at some point, they have to cool off some (or will start resting people). The Bruins learned what a great regular season gets you if you don't win the title, so hopefully the C's can win 16 post season games.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Right. I'm nervous that there is going to be something bad happen....a key injury, a cold shooting spell, run into some stupid good shooting in the playoffs, etc.
They are having a historical regular season, but carrying this into the playoffs is far from a foregone conclusion.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The pundits have pointed to bad outcomes in other seasons with other guys on the roster with bad habits that infiltrated those teams. I also have heard lots of folks suggesting the Nuggets are the clear favorites (and maybe they should be). But no one was saying DEN was a great team heading into last year's playoffs. They were in a situation pretty similar to the Celtics are in now. Denver with Jokic had lost in the first round once, the second round twice, and the conference finals once before they won last year. Jokic won a title at 27 (and Tatum just turned 26 yesterday).
I love how in every sport, teams that go on runs and come up short are somehow considered worse than ones that didn't advance. For example, there was plenty of debate in the Shark Pool over Joe Montana being the GOAT QB because he went 4-0 in Super Bowls. But that also means he didn't make the SB in 11 other seasons. This was back when Brady had lost 3 SBs (he went on to win 2 more). In basketball, Embiid gets lots of love as being one of the best players . . . yet PHI has yet to make it past the 2nd round.
As far as the Celtics go, I think they can play a more physical brand of basketball and not just rely on three pointers. But if they are making threes, there really isn't much reason not to keep shooting them. Once the playoffs get here, their offensive strategy will be to keep screening and switching until they get a total mismatch. Pretty much any of the starters can post up given the right match up, and they can either go iso or kick it out from there. Plus no one can figure out how to defend KP given everyone else on the court to deal with. They also have stretches in games when they go into lock down mode on defense. Another thing way different was in crunch time games (within 5 points in the final five minutes) this year, they are something crazy like +26.4 points per 100 possessions . . . meaning they are the ones outperforming and pulling away and not giving up leads.
But I get it, until they win, they will be labelled soft, chokers, and subject to an early exit. But a healthy team should advance pretty far. I still think it's a title or bust this year, and I don't really see an outcome where they don't win yet can come away feeling good about it.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Kev4029
Footballguy
I think their biggest weakness is kind of their biggest regular season strength. They have an absolutely fantastic 8 man rotation BUT one injury in the playoffs and that will kind of all come crashing down because after those top 8, the roster is especially weak. Tatum/Brown/White will probably up their minutes load a bit in the playoffs, Holiday may a little bit, but the other half of their top 8 is probably close to maxed out. If they face Giannis/Embiid/Jokic, they'll probably start Horford which will pull White out of the starting lineup and make them much less dynamic offensively as well.
I have tickets to the Celtics-Nuggets game this week, but unfortunately I'll be out of town. Other than the Embiid no-show game, that was the only other game I was specifically looking forward to this year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I suspect Boston will rotate bodies on the better bigs, even if it's just to give KP and Horford a breather or to use up some fouls in a physical game. Guys like Kornet, Queta, and Tillman. Boston usually opts to single cover guys, and I don't think they will start KP and Horford together. It's hard to tell home much they will use Horford and KP together, as they have had a lot of games where one or the other didn't play. With Horford / KP on the court together, Boston has had a +12.4 net rating. KP with White is +16.9 (that's the best combo on the team).
Boston's defensive strategy lately has been not to worry too much if the opposing team's star scores a lot as long as they contain easy baskets or open threes from the rest of the guys on the floor. They score so many points, that allowing 40 to one player and holding the other guys down, they still can win pretty handily.
We will have to wait and see how much less they score per game in the post-season, and if the defense can also tighten up at a similar rate. Lost year, the offense scored 9.3 fewer ppg in the playoffs and the defense allowed 1.3 fewer points. The year they went to the finals, the offense fell off by 12.4 ppg while the defense allowed 9.4 fewer ppg. I would guess the games scoring 130-140 points will disappear, so their margin for error will take a pretty big hit. They won't be able to make 25 threes in a game.
SWC
Bromigo
bobby bobby bobby bobby bobby bobby take that to the bank brohan
SWC
Bromigo
ill call him and ask and get back to you take that to the bank bromigo
edited to add my main man kdog says he is 95 percent playing tonight take that to the bank brochacho
Kev4029
Footballguy
Their efficiency took a hit both offensively and defensively (i.e. scored less and allowed more per 100 possessions) but the pace always slows down a smidge in the playoffs. Their pace dropped from 98.5 poss/48 to 95 - the league as a whole dropped from 99.1 to 96.1.
Teams are definitely going to test to see how real Boston's shooting is - Brown is a mediocre shooter and nearly all the rest of the team (save Tatum and Prichard) is shooting way above their career norms. Much of that is probably situational - it's a lot easier to get clean looks with Porzingis at center rather than Rob Williams, but it does feel a bit inflated.
the moops
Footballguy
Teams that are super deep, but lack the top end talent aren't really title contenders (typically).
Nearly every champion over the past decade ran no deeper than 8.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Their shooting numbers are inflated because all these guys are getting clean looks with the pressure they put on defenders. It's a lot easier making a catch and shoot three that is usually uncontested. Holiday is shooting like 65% on corner threes. White isn't that far behind. They have 4 guys shooting threes at 40%+.
Getting rid of Smart got rid of their weakest link and gave more time to White. Adding KP gives them a big that can post up, pick and pop, or pick and roll. Williams was a great defender but did not bring much to the offense. Now they often have 5 guys on the court that can all make threes, and Prichard and Hauser come off the bench with fresh legs and also can drain them. They can hunt matchups and get to the lane to score in the paint or kick out for a clean look.
I hope that in the post season that they choose to take some of those shots in the paint or drive and take free throws. I've seen too many plays where someone got all the way to the basket and a team was conceding a layup, only to have the ball handler kick the ball back out instead (and miss the shot). When they are ahead pretty handily, just take the free points. They don't have to keep bombing shots up 15 in the 4Q.
I know that bench guys see a lot fewer minutes in the playoffs, but in Boston's case, that might not be the best way to go. The 8-man rotation they've been using has been doing fine (with Kornet some nights as needed).
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
For unknown reasons I can only get it on Telemundo so am brushing up on my Spanish tonight. Hulu must not carry The M.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Es Noche Latina!
SWC
Bromigo
didnt need him or middleman take that bank brohans
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh holy spit......
DRAFTKINGS TOOK FUTURES BETS OFF 6TH MAN!!!!!!!!!
it is happening!!!!!!!!
DRAFTKINGS TOOK FUTURES BETS OFF 6TH MAN!!!!!!!!!
it is happening!!!!!!!!
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
It’s either coaching or just maybe this Gallinari kid is really something special.
SWC
Bromigo
bobby bobby bobby bobby take that to the bank brotato chip
eta that dame guy you told us about wasnt too shabby either take that to the bank
identikit
Footballguy
They certainly have improved...
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