2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

The Ringer's Zach Kram has Boston as an 87% favorite for the series.

Geeky analytics sites . . .

Basketball Reference - Boston 90.9%
Playoff Status - Boston 79%
ESPN BPI - Boston 65.3%

But we've seen these be epically wrong in prior seasons.

Were they wrong or did the unlikely thing happen? People struggle with probability. 90% means that 1/10 times the thing we aren't expecting is gonna happen. See, e.g., 2016 U.S. Presidential election.

Oh thank you. I spent the last couple of minutes internally debating whether to make the same point (with the fear being I’d sound like a know-it-all).

Well lord (and the FFA) knows I've got no problem being perceived that way, whether I actually think I do know it all or not (I do not).

 

[Zow]

Oh @Instinctive golf on me next time one of us is in the other’s respective areas!

 

[Instinctive]

Oh @Instinctive golf one next time one of us is in the other’s respective areas!

Just lemme know, I'll do the same. DFW, Phoenix yeah? Will look forward to getting my butt whooped like the Wolves in a WCF Game 5!


(too soon? My bad. Probably too soon.)

 

[Anarchy99]

The Ringer's Zach Kram has Boston as an 87% favorite for the series.

Geeky analytics sites . . .

Basketball Reference - Boston 90.9%
Playoff Status - Boston 79%
ESPN BPI - Boston 65.3%

But we've seen these be epically wrong in prior seasons.

Were they wrong or did the unlikely thing happen? People struggle with probability. 90% means that 1/10 times the thing we aren't expecting is gonna happen. See, e.g., 2016 U.S. Presidential election.

The Celtics were something like 97% expected to win against MIA last year and 95% to beat Golden State the year before that. For ha-ha's, let's pick the 90.9% option from what I listed. If my math is right (big if, but let's see if I have this right), .97 * .95 * .909 = an 83.7% chance Boston would win all three series (GS, MIA, and DAL). Conversely, .03 * .05 * .091 = a 0.013% chance Boston would lose all three series. Yet here we are.

 

[identikit]

I will post statistical nuggets when I uncover them.

Mavericks this season (including playoffs):

When allowing 15 or more three pointers: 15-14
When allowing 11 or more three pointers: 40-34
When allowing 10 or fewer three pointers: 22-3

Boston this season (including playoffs):
When making 15 or more three pointers: 61-9
When making 11 or more three pointers: 75-16
When making 10 or fewer three pointers: 1-4

I know no one wants this to turn into a series based on math, probability, and statistics. However, the Mavs like to play two bigs in the paint and have two guards that are defensive liabilities. Boston has five 3P shooters on the floor 90% of the time.

Sure, Doncic and Irving are great, but how much better will they be scoring wise vs. Tatum and Brown? The Dallas duo has averaged 51.6 combined in the playoffs (against stronger competition) vs. 51.0 for the Boston pairing. Over the past two seasons, Tatum has averaged 34/12/6 with Brown averaging 24/6/2 against the Mavs . . . so 58 ppg combined vs. Dallas.

White / Porzingas / Holiday have averaged 48 ppg between them this year (including playoff games). That's a combined 106 points (including JT and JB average totals against DAL). Dallas has averaged 107.9 ppg in the playoffs so far. Not knocking the Mavs here and not saying they can't win, just trying to figure out the math that works for Dallas.

Yeah, no one wants to

I don't know why they're even going to play the games

 

[FBG Moderator]

OMG Luka on pace for a cool 80.

Also - Gobert with another one swatted by a little guy. And, though I've done a good job ignoring posts from the obviously low basketball IQ folks lately, I can't resist this one:

Besides it being discussed by Zach Lowe, Chris Vernon, Bill Simmons, Ryen Russillo, Derek Thompson, Kirk Goldsberry, and others in just the last 3 days:

It just seems like everyone in the NBA hates Rudy Gobert, and you'd have to be deaf and blind not to notice it.

Drop the "low basketball IQ" condescending shtick and please be a lot more cool.

 

[Bossman]

So this series is set to start some day next month?
Do we get a Pro-Bowl game in between while we wait or don't they do that anymore?

Next month is tomorrow.

I don’t get the big deal with a week off. Do people do this for the nfl too? If anything it should help both teams be 100%.

OR ... they could have moved the series up a day, or three, or five, and we'd be watching the finals this weekend.

 

[Major]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

 

[Anarchy99]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

They only care about the numbers not players. Boston is 30-5 when Porzingis doesn’t play. There are better ways to breakdown specific stats and scenarios than simple W/L probabilities.

 

[Major]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

They only care about the numbers not players. Boston is 30-5 when Porzingis doesn’t play. There are better ways to breakdown specific stats and scenarios than simple W/L probabilities.

True. I guess there's a lot of things pure numbers don't take into account like playing in a sh*t conference or facing shells of playoff teams due to injury. To think Porzingis doesn't help their chances is comical.

 

[msudaisy26]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

They only care about the numbers not players. Boston is 30-5 when Porzingis doesn’t play. There are better ways to breakdown specific stats and scenarios than simple W/L probabilities.

True. I guess there's a lot of things pure numbers don't take into account like playing in a sh*t conference or facing shells of playoff teams due to injury. To think Porzingis doesn't help their chances is comical.

Just look at a couple years ago when the Celtics were a big favorite and Curry was so good he wouldn't let the Warriors lose.

Luka could easily do that in this series.

 

[identikit]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

They only care about the numbers not players. Boston is 30-5 when Porzingis doesn’t play. There are better ways to breakdown specific stats and scenarios than simple W/L probabilities.

True. I guess there's a lot of things pure numbers don't take into account like playing in a sh*t conference or facing shells of playoff teams due to injury. To think Porzingis doesn't help their chances is comical.

Just look at a couple years ago when the Celtics were a big favorite and Curry was so good he wouldn't let the Warriors lose.

Luka could easily do that in this series.

No stat for grit and/or determination

 

[Capella]

So this series is set to start some day next month?
Do we get a Pro-Bowl game in between while we wait or don't they do that anymore?

Next month is tomorrow.

I don’t get the big deal with a week off. Do people do this for the nfl too? If anything it should help both teams be 100%.

OR ... they could have moved the series up a day, or three, or five, and we'd be watching the finals this weekend.

Tv money is all that matters

 

[culdeus]

Why the delay? Just because? Other sports don't seem to do this with long series?

The nfl literally takes 2 weeks off.

"With long series"

 

[scoobus]

Troy Weaver out in Detroit. Right when he was just about to turn it around.

 

[Capella]

Why the delay? Just because? Other sports don't seem to do this with long series?

The nfl literally takes 2 weeks off.

"With long series"

What’s the difference? It’s time off between the same rounds.

 

[msudaisy26]

Troy Weaver out in Detroit. Right when he was just about to turn it around.

Thank God

 

[Ghost Rider]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

They only care about the numbers not players. Boston is 30-5 when Porzingis doesn’t play. There are better ways to breakdown specific stats and scenarios than simple W/L probabilities.

True. I guess there's a lot of things pure numbers don't take into account like playing in a sh*t conference or facing shells of playoff teams due to injury. To think Porzingis doesn't help their chances is comical.

Unless we want to act like what happened in December really matters in June, season long numbers are meaningless since the Mavericks made some mid-season trades that made them a much better team. Besides, the numbers were strongly in favor of the Celtics the last two years and that didn't turn out so well for them. Math is fun, but it doesn't decide basketball games.

 

[mr. furley]

I take it all these sites are assuming Porzingis is fully healthy? He's the tipping point for me. Without him at 100%, the series is a toss up.

They only care about the numbers not players. Boston is 30-5 when Porzingis doesn’t play. There are better ways to breakdown specific stats and scenarios than simple W/L probabilities.

True. I guess there's a lot of things pure numbers don't take into account like playing in a sh*t conference or facing shells of playoff teams due to injury. To think Porzingis doesn't help their chances is comical.

Just look at a couple years ago when the Celtics were a big favorite and Curry was so good he wouldn't let the Warriors lose.

Luka could easily do that in this series.

No stat for grit and/or determination

@Steve Tasker

 

[Frostillicus]

Why the delay? Just because? Other sports don't seem to do this with long series?

The nfl literally takes 2 weeks off.

"With long series"

Game dates are set well in advance.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Does it also have to do with Dallas needing the arena for 2 teams and already scheduled concerts? Meagan Thee Stallion and Adventura have concerts there. Whoever the hell they are. I mean WTF is Megan Thee Stallion ETA ... I did a youtube search on her videos. Hard pass. Rap has gone downhill since the days of Ice Cube.

The Finals dates were announced when they announced the schedule for the entire season last summer. They are fixed dates. It has nothing to do with how long each series lasts, if they have concerts or events, etc. IIRC, the only way there would be a conflict would be if the building also had a second team advance to the Finals in another sport in the same building. However, if people compared the NHL Finals schedule to the NBA Finals schedule, they alternate dates. IIRC, if there is a concert to deal with, they would move the date of the concert (likely be a day or two) to accommodate the Finals game.

I believe that a part of it is allowing media, especially international media, to ensure that they can be on site for all the games. It’s also been this way for years.

 

[Zow]

Oh @Instinctive golf one next time one of us is in the other’s respective areas!

Just lemme know, I'll do the same. DFW, Phoenix yeah? Will look forward to getting my butt whooped like the Wolves in a WCF Game 5!


(too soon? My bad. Probably too soon.)

Haha the good thing for you is I’m a gentleman and abide by the handicap system - so we can lower your basket to nine feet.

But yes Phoenix is my main area of play in the winter months. I actually live and play out of a club about two hours north of there.

 

[ZADO]

Im from Boston and my wife is from Dallas
its gonna be fun around the house for a bit

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Im from Boston and my wife is from Dallas
its gonna be fun around the house for a bit

Does your wife actually care about the mavs?

 

[ZADO]

Im from Boston and my wife is from Dallas
its gonna be fun around the house for a bit

Does your wife actually care about the mavs?

Meh, she cares more about bustin my balls if the Celtics lose to the Mavs . Gonna come up with an interesting bet on the series (wink wink)

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Im from Boston and my wife is from Dallas
its gonna be fun around the house for a bit

Does your wife actually care about the mavs?

Meh, she cares more about bustin my balls if the Celtics lose to the Mavs . Gonna come up with an interesting bet on the series (wink wink)

Kind of what I figured, as I had a hard time imagining a lot of crazy serious mavs fans, though I could be mistaken

 

[ZADO]

Im from Boston and my wife is from Dallas
its gonna be fun around the house for a bit

Does your wife actually care about the mavs?

Meh, she cares more about bustin my balls if the Celtics lose to the Mavs . Gonna come up with an interesting bet on the series (wink wink)

Kind of what I figured, as I had a hard time imagining a lot of crazy serious mavs fans, though I could be mistaken

Id say thats a fair assessment

 

[Instinctive]

Im from Boston and my wife is from Dallas
its gonna be fun around the house for a bit

Does your wife actually care about the mavs?

Meh, she cares more about bustin my balls if the Celtics lose to the Mavs . Gonna come up with an interesting bet on the series (wink wink)

Kind of what I figured, as I had a hard time imagining a lot of crazy serious mavs fans, though I could be mistaken

Ouch.

I think that's because not that many folks tend to move away from Dallas. Dallas is consistently ranked as one of the best stadiums and fanbases (I'm obviously biased), but whereas you meet folks like from Boston and New York all over, people tend to either end up in or never leave DFW.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Troy Weaver out in Detroit. Right when he was just about to turn it around.

When I read that the new Pistons prez would have the power to fire Weaver, I was thinking… is there anyone who wouldn’t do that?

No idea if Langdon will be able to clean up this mess but at least he got the really easy one right.

 

[msudaisy26]

Troy Weaver out in Detroit. Right when he was just about to turn it around.

When I read that the new Pistons prez would have the power to fire Weaver, I was thinking… is there anyone who wouldn’t do that?

No idea if Langdon will be able to clean up this mess but at least he got the really easy one right.

If he actually picks or signs someone that can shoot that would be a start.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Troy Weaver out in Detroit. Right when he was just about to turn it around.

When I read that the new Pistons prez would have the power to fire Weaver, I was thinking… is there anyone who wouldn’t do that?

No idea if Langdon will be able to clean up this mess but at least he got the really easy one right.

If he actually picks or signs someone that can shoot that would be a start.

I would hope he sees the value of shooting, since that’s the only thing he was good at as a player.

When the best shooter in the organization is the 48-year-old team president, that’s a problem.

 

[offdee]

Meh, she cares more about bustin my balls if the Celtics lose to the Mavs . Gonna come up with an interesting bet on the series (wink wink)

Brown dot.

 

[ZADO]

Meh, she cares more about bustin my balls if the Celtics lose to the Mavs . Gonna come up with an interesting bet on the series (wink wink)

Brown dot.

I may have to label it NSFW

 

[Anarchy99]

Celtics-Mavericks: 24 key stats ahead of 2024 NBA Finals | NBA.com

Offense. Defense. Historical trends. John Schuhmann breaks down 24 numbers that matter heading into the 2024 NBA Finals.

www.nba.com

 

[Bossman]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

 

[identikit]

R-E-L-A-X

The games will be soon enough

 

[Anarchy99]

Historical trends (just observations . . . will have no impact on who wins the actual games):

Since the ABA / NBA merger in 1977:

- Teams seeded 5th or lower are 1-4 in the Finals (HOU won in 1995).
- The Mavs are the 3rd biggest underdog based on Vegas odds.
- Only 4 times did a team miss the playoffs the prior year and win the title.
- Teams with 20 or fewer combined losses entering the Finals have gone 14-1 (CLE beat GS in 2016).
- If DAL wins, they would have the 2nd worst record for a title winning team.
- Teams with +10 or more wins on the season have gone 8-2 in the Finals (CLE beat GS in 2016 and HOU beat ORL in 1995) . . . (prior to the merger, those teams went 10-1).
- Four championship teams advanced to the Finals without beating a 50-win team to get there:
2023 DEN (42-45-43), 2013 MIA (38-45-49), 1987 LAL (37-42-39), and 1982 LAL (46 and 48 . . . only had 2 series to get to the Finals).

 

[Anarchy99]

Forgot to mention that I have seen multiple videos of Porzingas at practice. He is back playing 5 on 5. Also been working him a ton on pick and pops and three pointers from all different spots on the perimeter. He seems to be running and jumping normally (granted, none of the players are playing in game mode at full effort). Still a good sign.

 

[offdee]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

Why would any NBA player care about 3rd place?

 

[Anarchy99]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

Why would any NBA player care about 3rd place?

Why would any NBA player care about an in-season tournament?

 

[Capella]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

Why would any NBA player care about 3rd place?

Why would any NBA player care about an in-season tournament?

The IST didn’t add any extra games to the schedule. A third place series would add 4-7.

If they wanted to make it one game and pay every winning player a mil, I’m sure everybody would play.

 

[Instinctive]

Forgot to mention that I have seen multiple videos of Porzingas at practice. He is back playing 5 on 5. Also been working him a ton on pick and pops and three pointers from all different spots on the perimeter. He seems to be running and jumping normally (granted, none of the players are playing in game mode at full effort). Still a good sign.

Appreciate all the stats - love some of this stuff being collated in one spot.

Porzingis I think has no a, btw.

I think KP is a bigger deal here than is being touted (or maybe there's more media on it than I'm aware of). Boston is an open parade to the rim for this Mavs team if they don't have him. And on offense, pulling Lively or Gafford out away from the basket is critical to getting in there. I think Boston could win without him, but it's much closer to a 50/50 series to me if he reinjures or isn't all there in some meaningful way.

 

[Anarchy99]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

Why would any NBA player care about 3rd place?

Why would any NBA player care about an in-season tournament?

The IST didn’t add any extra games to the schedule. A third place series would add 4-7.

If they wanted to make it one game and pay every winning player a mil, I’m sure everybody would play.

The IST added a game that didn't count for the championship, team records, or individual stats. Just like the play-in games. I get it, players are playing for a chance to eventually win a title in the play-in games (although I don't think they get paid extra to play in them). No one really would care if a team came in third, just like no one will really care or remember who won the play in tournament.

 

[offdee]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

Why would any NBA player care about 3rd place?

Why would any NBA player care about an in-season tournament?

IST is just part of the regular season games for the most part and a good chunk of money.

Playing a 3rd place game after the two teams came up just short of playing for an nba title seems very much like a “who cares” scenario.

 

[offdee]

If they wanted to make it one game and pay every winning player a mil, I’m sure everybody would play

lol if they did this they’d probably have players who would rather play for 3rd place then a title.

 

[Anarchy99]

Forgot to mention that I have seen multiple videos of Porzingas at practice. He is back playing 5 on 5. Also been working him a ton on pick and pops and three pointers from all different spots on the perimeter. He seems to be running and jumping normally (granted, none of the players are playing in game mode at full effort). Still a good sign.

Appreciate all the stats - love some of this stuff being collated in one spot.

Porzingis I think has no a, btw.

I think KP is a bigger deal here than is being touted (or maybe there's more media on it than I'm aware of). Boston is an open parade to the rim for this Mavs team if they don't have him. And on offense, pulling Lively or Gafford out away from the basket is critical to getting in there. I think Boston could win without him, but it's much closer to a 50/50 series to me if he reinjures or isn't all there in some meaningful way.

Just so you know, I am not anti-Dallas. Luka is my son's favorite player. We actually have a giant painting of him in our house. He's conflicted, as Boston is his favorite (and local) team. He picked BOS v. DAL in the Finals weeks before the playoffs even started. I like Luka . . . Kyrie not so much (since he ditched the C's, plus he's an odd duck).

 

[Capella]

If they wanted to make it one game and pay every winning player a mil, I’m sure everybody would play

lol if they did this they’d probably have players who would rather play for 3rd place then a title.

No doubt about it

 

[identikit]

If TV money is what they want, why not have a series for third place between MIN and IND?
Prolly could have gotten 4 games in before the finals even start. Play games 5' 6, 7, on the off nights of the finals.

Why would any NBA player care about 3rd place?

Why would any NBA player care about an in-season tournament?

The IST didn’t add any extra games to the schedule. A third place series would add 4-7.

If they wanted to make it one game and pay every winning player a mil, I’m sure everybody would play.

The injury risk would be a factor i would think.

Particularly an extra 4-7 games

 

[Anarchy99]

Other than the Olympics and the World Cup, what other sports determine third place?

 

[the moops]

Other than the Olympics and the World Cup, what other sports determine third place?

Golf