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2024 Detroit Lions: Draft complete. (5 Viewers)

Lions 7-7 vs Jets all time. Last time the teams met was in 2018 when the Jets blew out the Lions at home in 2018 48-17. That game was the first game of the season and official start of Quinn/Patricia era. It didn't get any better in the next three years.

Lions have a history of playing low scoring games against the Jets @ NY in December with the playoffs being at stake.

In 1994 the Lions won 18-7. Finished 9-7 went to playoffs.

In 1997 the Lions won 13-10. Finished 9-7 went to playoffs. This was the game that Barry went over 2,000 yards

In 2000 the Lions won 10-7. Finished 9-7 did not make playoffs.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Top 25 Rookies

5. Aidan Hutchinson
22. Malcolm Rodriguez
24. James Houston

Lions the only team with 3 players on the list.

Add in Jamo, Josh Paschal & Kerby Joseph - that is a high quality draft.
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Holmes easily has two of the Lions top three draft of all-time, #1 and #3 IMO. Next year with 5 picks in the top 75, he is in good position to rack up a third outstanding draft. The biggest piece will be hoping Ben Johnson hangs around for a few more years. He will be getting offers, but he has a good thing going in Detroit and if he is smart he will wait for that right offer.
 
Deamon said:
SF did you guys a favour. Tied with them if you beat the jets?
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Our chances of making the playoffs went up 3% from 21% to 24%. A win Sunday and it rises to 29%; a loss drops it to 11% but I think in everyone's mind it's effectively 0%.

Seattle has now lost 5 of 6. At 7-7 there probably is no margin for error and they have to win out.

SEA (30%)

16. at KC
17. NYJ
18. LAR

NYG/WAS play each other so one of them will be 8-5-1 the other will be 7-6-1. Presuming Detroit or Seattle wins out, one of them has to get to 10-6-1.

WAS (80%)

16. at SF
17. CLE
18. DAL (will starters play?)

NYG (60%)

16. at MIN
17. IND
18. at PHI (will starters play?)

FiveThirtyEight has the percentages as DET (24%) SEA (34%) NYG (52%) WAS (77%)

www.playoffstatus.com

2023 NFL Post Season Probabilities

The 2023 NFL Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds.
www.playoffstatus.com www.playoffstatus.com

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2022 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

You can play around with scenarios here:

playoff machine

edit:

According to Reddit, if Detroit wins out we have a 97% chance of making the playoffs.
  • 95% Wild Card
  • 2% Division Title (Vikings would have to lose out) to Colts, Giants, at GB and at CHI)
  • 3% miss playoffs
edit2:

The statistical models attest to how important the Seahawks loss tonight was to our chances. NYT puts our odds at 20% (up from 14% pre-game). 538 now puts our playoff chances at 24% (up from 19% pre-game). And our odds will increase to 40% (!) if we beat the Jets.
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Whatever. Gotta win Sunday, gotta win in Charlotte, take care of the Bears at home, then win 5th straight (+ 5th straight road game) in Lambeau. The odds are not in our favor.

But I like our chances.
 
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Three of the last four games for the Giants are at Washington, at Minnesota and at Philly. Those look like three losses to me. Seattle at the Chiefs next week (loss) then at home against the Jets. If they lose that one, it seems pretty plausible Lions could get in with 9 wins, no?
 
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Apple Juice said:
Three of the last four games for the Giants are at Washington, at Minnesota and at Philly. Those look like three losses to me. Jets are at the Chiefs next week (loss) then at home against the Jets. If they lose that one, it seems pretty plausible Lions could get in with 9 wins, no?
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Giants aren't a terrible team, so it's tough to assume they'll lose all three. And it's quite possible that they'll be playing Philly's B-team in that last game if they don't have anything to play for.

We really want Dallas to beat Philly next week so that both teams have something to play for in Week 18.
 
Apple Juice said:
Three of the last four games for the Giants are at Washington, at Minnesota and at Philly. Those look like three losses to me. Seattle at the Chiefs next week (loss) then at home against the Jets. If they lose that one, it seems pretty plausible Lions could get in with 9 wins, no?
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The problem is week 17 and 18, not every team plays to win. Philly will have the #1 seed locked up soon, so Jalen Hurts may only be playing a drive or two. I am kind of pulling for the Giants to lose the Washington matchup, but i think either team that loses will lose at least one more. Bottom line is Lions need to win out, or they will be hope for a TON of help if they go 3-1. And what the biggest factor is how well Goff plays on the road.
 
I think Seattle is done personally.

So who do you want to win between NYG and WAS? Or does another tie help the most?
 
Deamon said:
I think Seattle is done personally.

So who do you want to win between NYG and WAS? Or does another tie help the most?
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Another tie helps the Lions most, but either team would go for two in a tie situation as a tie is essentially the same as a loss to both of them. Otherwise it does not make a huge difference, although I think the Giants are more certain to have a second loss in the remaining schedule, so I slightly am for Washington to win.
 
Chaka said:
efactor said:
On a FF note, with White out and Wilson in, what do you think of the Lions defense as an option this week?
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Link
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FF rank last 6 weeks:
  • DT4
  • DT7
  • DT9
  • DT21 (Thanksgiving)
  • DT16
  • DT10
In our format they’ve hit double digits 4 of the last 6 weeks, scoring 65.00 points (10.83 / g.) Our scoring includes Yards Allowed, TFL, 3 n Outs, 4th down stops, as well as the traditional PA, Fum Rec, INT, & Sacks.
 
efactor said:
On a FF note, with White out and Wilson in, what do you think of the Lions defense as an option this week?
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Would expect Jets to go run heavy and limit Wilson unless forced to throw if Lions jump out to a big lead. Question will be whether Lions run defense will show up in a cold weather game., Lions run defense has been much improved.

My guess would be a run heavy game that will eat clock and result in less scoring and less passing. Less passing usually results in less fantasy defense scoring.

You would guess Jets defense would keep Lions in check resulting in Jets running the ball more. Jets were winning some games earlier based on their run game especially with Breece Hall and defense.
 
themeistersinger said:
Question for Lions homers. According to Jake Ciely, since Week 8, the Lions are the worst in the league against slot receivers. Does that sound right to you? Lions defense seems to be playing better lately overall, but they still might be weak in this one area. He's suggesting Elijah Moore for the Jets would be a strong play this week.
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With Wilson starting you need to rethink this. Expect Jets to go run heavy and Wilson and Moore had very little prior chemistry.
 
I go back to the Tom Dempsey kick in 1970 being a Lion fan. I finally tapped out during the Millen era and turned to fantasy football to get my fix. Last year I finally bought in to what this franchise is doing and this regime has finally been able to wipe off the remaining Millen dog crap from the heel of my shoe. I truly did not expect a playoff run until next year but it looks your saying there is a chance for this year, LFG!
 
dmac37 said:
I go back to the Tom Dempsey kick in 1970 being a Lion fan. I finally tapped out during the Millen era and turned to fantasy football to get my fix. Last year I finally bought in to what this franchise is doing and this regime has finally been able to wipe off the remaining Millen dog crap from the heel of my shoe. I truly did not expect a playoff run until next year but it looks your saying there is a chance for this year, LFG!
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Was surprised to see Lions listed today as 80-1 to win SB. They have usually been listed on the last page as 250-1. The Lions have looked strong after playing three straight home games but it all can easily fall apart this weekend playing a tough defense on the road.
 
Heard an interesting spin on Dan Campbell's jokes on the McAfee Show suggesting it was Dan's way of giving all the credit to his players and coaching staff. Dan is the kind of leader who bares all the blame when things go wrong and when things go right lets others get the credit.
 
The closer it gets to game time, the more excited I get. Some of it is because we haven't had anything to cheer about in years, but this team has far exceeded expectations and the fact that we went from playing as bad as any team in the NFL to being a serious playoff contender literally overnight is incredible.

No matter what happens the rest of the way, I am going to just enjoy the ride. :thumbup:
 
The (unknown) Architect Behind the Detroit Lions Offense

Detroit Lions Highlights Ben Johnson - Dan Campbell and the Lions have built one of the NFL's most explosive and entertaining offenses, and the creator behind it is 36-year-old Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson. Josh McCown outlines the pillar pieces of this awesome offense, including Amon-Ra St. Brown's versatile usage and connecting playcalls to force defenses out of position, on the latest episode of SCHEME

timestamp/chapters:
  • 0:00 Detroit Lions SCHEME
  • 3:49 Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • 9:34 Now Out of the Backfield
  • 12:39 Where's Waldo?
  • 14:36 Powerful OL
  • 17:54 Jameson Williams TD Design
  • 21:30 Diverse Running Game
  • 26:59 Ben Johnson, Genius?
  • 30:23 How to Get WRs Wide Open
  • 32:00 Connected Playcalling
  • 34:40 Penei Sewell Catch
 
BobbyLayne said:
Here are the Lions playoff odds based on every outcome we have left
Click to expand...
I don't quite believe we really have a 50 percent chance if we go 3-1. Seattle loss this week was huge, but they still would have to go 1-2 the last three week. Then the loser of Giants-Washington also has to go 1-2. Both of those happening is closer to 25 percent, IMHO. I have to believe the models are grossly overestimating the Giants being dogs in week 18 against the Eagles.

ETA: it would not shock me if the Eagles actually want to lose to the Giants.
 
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As many Super Bowl are won by elite QB's (Montana, Brady, Peyton, Bradshaw, Mahomes, Elway) there are Super Bowls won by average or above average QB's (Eli, Dilfer, Rypien, Brad Johnson, Hostetter, Doug Williams, McMahon, Plunkett). Goff is good enough to win a SB or maybe even two.
 
jon_mx said:
BobbyLayne said:
Here are the Lions playoff odds based on every outcome we have left
Click to expand...
I don't quite believe we really have a 50 percent chance if we go 3-1. Seattle loss this week was huge, but they still would have to go 1-2 the last three week. Then the loser of Giants-Washington also has to go 1-2. Both of those happening is closer to 25 percent, IMHO. I have to believe the models are grossly overestimating the Giants being dogs in week 18 against the Eagles.

ETA: it would not shock me if the Eagles actually want to lose to the Giants.
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The Lions need Dallas to win their next three games.
 
jon_mx said:
As many Super Bowl are won by elite QB's (Montana, Brady, Peyton, Bradshaw, Mahomes, Elway) there are Super Bowls won by average or above average QB's (Eli, Dilfer, Rypien, Brad Johnson, Hostetter, Doug Williams, McMahon, Plunkett). Goff is good enough to win a SB or maybe even two.
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Goff needs to prove he can win on the road against a very good defense. Games like this one are when Goff (and the team) needs to make a statement.
 
jon_mx said:
As many Super Bowl are won by elite QB's (Montana, Brady, Peyton, Bradshaw, Mahomes, Elway) there are Super Bowls won by average or above average QB's (Eli, Dilfer, Rypien, Brad Johnson, Hostetter, Doug Williams, McMahon, Plunkett). Goff is good enough to win a SB or maybe even two.
Click to expand...
Funny enough, I believe Flacco and Dougl Williams are the only SB Winning QB to never make a Pro Bowl. Goff already has made 2 Pro Bowls.
 
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