2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[JaBoo]

I thought I was Turk-meat when my QB, RB1 and RB2 spots were locked in with 23 points for the week. But then Boswell and Kraft balled out. Now I'm safe sitting at 148. GL to those still running!

 

[scottybo]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

 

[-OZ-]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

generally, I think it’s a good thing when you barely make it over the line if you have a few of the popular players. Cut that herd just a bit. Of course that assumes your players perform better going forward.

I’ll be interested to see how many London-JSN-pearsall-egbuka owners survive week 8

 

[Birdie048]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

generally, I think it’s a good thing when you barely make it over the line if you have a few of the popular players. Cut that herd just a bit. Of course that assumes your players perform better going forward.

I’ll be interested to see how many London-JSN-pearsall-egbuka owners survive week 8

Yeah, but the "Stress Factor" being close to the Cut Line has me sweating this week!!
As a JSN & Pearsall roster holder, I am Sitting at 130.45 vs 120.80 and Mr Bill (4.3) yet to play.

Mostly thanks to Tua's awakening!

 

[Jayrod]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

generally, I think it’s a good thing when you barely make it over the line if you have a few of the popular players. Cut that herd just a bit. Of course that assumes your players perform better going forward.

I’ll be interested to see how many London-JSN-pearsall-egbuka owners survive week 8

I don't have London but do have the other 3. I'm over 180 with a shot to get to 200 tonight between Ertz & Bill.

 

[jm192]

Sitting safely at 140 thanks to 35.9 from Love and 22 from Boswell.

 

[Charles in Houston]

7.5 below the cut. Gonna stink if I get eliminated because 2 of 3 defenses were on a bye.

I don't want to kick a Football Guy when he's down, but that can be engineered around before the season starts. In all likelihood, there were other issues in this week's rooster for you. Good luck, I hope you pull through.

 

[Charles in Houston]

Took a 0 at QB this week but will move on thanks to Kraft blowing up tonight. If Chase Brown actually is a usable RB going forward that would be big

Kraft gets me to 156

What a game he had!

 

[Charles in Houston]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

generally, I think it’s a good thing when you barely make it over the line if you have a few of the popular players. Cut that herd just a bit. Of course that assumes your players perform better going forward.

I’ll be interested to see how many London-JSN-pearsall-egbuka owners survive week 8

I don't have London but do have the other 3. I'm over 180 with a shot to get to 200 tonight between Ertz & Bill.

I'm at 175 with the same two (-7.5 & -9.2), plus Mahomes (-31). They'd have to collectively go off if I were to reach 200. I got 199.80, but never 200. Love to join the Club but I'm pretty content with scoring comfortably over the cut line every week, so far. Anti-jinx spray being applied to post.

 

[menobrown]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

Somewhat similar experience but only one week.

Got in by less then a point last week and that was with some much needed MNF help, came down to the wire.

This week sitting at 211.85 with JCM -13.10.

 

[Golden Gopher]

After sort of a ho-hum week, I'm sitting at 135 with Bill (-7.5), Lane (-10.7), and Ertz (-12.8) going tonight. Feel cautiously optimistic about moving on, but who knows.

Would really love to get Pearsall back soon, especially with Egbuka's upcoming bye next week. I'm also hoping that Geno and the LVR defense come back rejuvinated after their bye (anyone can hope, right)?

 

[nittanylion]

After Ka'imi Fairbairn notched a 15.9 earlier in the day, I sure didn't think Boswell was going to score for me last night, but he sure did.

Hoping National TE Day carries over into tonight's 'skins/Chiefs tilt, to the tune of Zach Ertz (-6.5)...

 

[Puppies]

This is a weird team, beat the cut line by less than 2 points in week 4. Now we're going for back-to-back 200 point weeks.

198.45

Croskey-Merritt -7.9.

generally, I think it’s a good thing when you barely make it over the line if you have a few of the popular players. Cut that herd just a bit. Of course that assumes your players perform better going forward.

I’ll be interested to see how many London-JSN-pearsall-egbuka owners survive week 8

It's been a crazy 2 weeks for me too.

Last week I only made it by 6 points, with my lowest score so far in the contest.

This week I'm missing 6 players (4 on bye and 2 out with injuries).
Then Thursday night I only got 8.4 from Keenan Allen (who typically gives me a usable score) and I'm starting to get worried about being booted.
. . . Then everything goes crazy in the 1pm games with James Cook, Chase Brown, Fannin, and C J Stroud going off the rails.
I had enough points to advance to week 9 by the 3rd quarter of the 1pm games.

It was a crazy week (in a good way), for many of us

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

156.2 + Bill - 5.8 + Chiefs

I propose a Packers / Patriots trade of Matthew Golden for Trevyon Henderson. That way they can both accomplish nothing in new locations.

 

[Titans_fan]

It's gonna be a sweat for me, but Love's performance last night might have saved me.

121 + JCM (-6.5) + Pacheco (-6.5) + Chiefs D

 

[On Waldman Pond]

After cruising through the first 7 weeks with 30 points or more to spare each week, I find myself sweating it out for the first time in 2025. With JSN out on a bye, Bijan Robinson picked a bad time to put up a dud. I'm sitting at 124.45, 3.65 above the cut line with Mahomes (-34.25), Crosky-Merritt (-6.30), and Kelce -6.50) to play yet.

Mahomes is unlikely to improve upon Tua's 34.25 so I need Bill or Taylor's fiancé to come through for me to move on.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Good luck to all those sweating tonight!

 

[On Waldman Pond]

Thank you, Mr. Pfizer!!! On to week 9!

 

[TheWinz]

I am going to use @Army Eye scoreboard here, as it's been quite accurate. I will verify later and make changes if needed:

We started the week with 31 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant badge offer. The great news is we still have 31 ; the bad news is we lost @Deamon

Moving on to week 9 are:
@Irelad - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105109/week/1
@ZWK - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104585/week/1
@Galileo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102193/week/1
@rzrback77 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110111/week/1
@TheWinz - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102376/week/1
@scottybo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100693/week/1
@Tha Guru - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109783/week/1
@Maggot Brain - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105999/week/1
@-OZ- - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108784/week/1
@JoeSteeler - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101707/week/1
@MikesVikes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107455/week/1 and https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102212/week/1
@H8fulHuck - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109705/week/1
@IHEARTFF - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104094/week/1
@ConstruxBoy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107958/week/1
@SeniorVBDStudent - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111053/week/1
@Church of Iggy Pop - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110444/week/1
@dbc925 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110116/week/1
@J Rod - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100110/week/1
@formerfourdigit - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108618/week/1
@BlackCrowes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105260/week/1
@davidwb - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104854/week/1
@cstruk - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100211/week/1
@Golden Gopher - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104995/week/1
@Scoresman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105305/week/1
@Birdie048 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107712/week/1
@kajaet - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102872/week/1
@Charles in Houston - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101260/week/1
@da_budman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102339/week/1
@JaBoo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107978/week/1
@jm192 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106187/week/1

Of note
- scottybo was this week's top dog with 198.45 - 2nd week in a row with the top score, congrats!
- Birdie048 was this week's lowest advancing team, with a score of 130.45 (Scoresman almost became a repeat offender here)

Good luck in week 9!

 

[bamabuddha]

My lineup, that I really did not want to be my final lineup, is still humming along….

215 pts this week (love you Flacco)

 

[Birdie048]

Of note
- scottybo was this week's top dog with 198.45 - 2nd week in a row with the top score, congrats!
- Birdie048 was this week's lowest advancing team, with a score of 130.45 (Scoresman almost became a repeat offender here)

Good luck in week 9!

I knew it would be close ... Not sure I would advance with the Bye/Injury concerns ...
Scored 130.45 compared to the Cut 127.00

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Threats to my continued participation:

Golden, Pearsall and Kirk injury timelines versus looming tight end bye weeks (Goedert week 9 and Warren and his QB week 11).
Consistency from Henry / Brown / Montgomery as Bill's contribution is sketchy.
Flacco's injury timing as it relates to Chase Brown's productivity.
Less concerned with QB, WR, PK, TD...except for Murphy's Law.

 

[Dacomish]

Unofficial future cutlines: No ties affected the future cutlines, (not counting ties that may affect the final cut numbers):

Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 6511
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5209
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4169
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3341
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2339
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1638
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1147
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 803
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 563
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 338
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.

- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.

- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.

 

[dbc925]

Made it by 22 points, thanks to a well-spent (for this week, anyway). $4 Chris Boswell and his 22 points, and $2 Pat Bryant (couldn't have picked a better time) with 12 points.

Other miscellany - My QB tandem of Josh Allen and Drake Maye haven't given me less than 28 points in any week, and are averaging 33 ppw. $4 Jimmy Garoppolo is along for the ride. Didn't expect anything unless Stafford's back injury was a factor.

I have three receivers (Puka, Rome and Egbuka), and three pieces of crud at the position. But all but Kyle Williams have counted for me. The other two are Josh Palmer, and Bryant.

I've been very lucky on the injury front, with Puka coming back this week and Brenton Strange missing just two more weeks (I'll have only Engram at TE in week 10). No dead money so far.

Most of my bye week pain is over. Remaining bye week losses -
Week 9 - 1
Week 10 - 3 (incl. one of my three defenses, one of my three kickers)
Week 11 - 1
Week 12 - 2
Week 13 - 2 (unfortunately, they're CMC and Maye)

$10 on three defenses, and I'm averaging 7 points per week. None of them have been a factor at all.

It's going to take a lot of luck, but it always does.

 

[IdiotNFLfan]

Happy to have made it this far, one year made it to Week 12 but often out within 5. Too many rookies on my team I think to make it much further, regretting my Pop Douglas choice over Boutte + more cash and my flavor of the month spend of $6 on the Packers D just after the Parsons trade under the wire for entry finalization. My Mahomes/Maye/Darnold QB situation has been clutch for me thankfully.

 

[Birdie048]

Wondering if this was posted earlier and I missed it .. or if @Dacomish or @TheWinz has the data on Previous Year's Cut Line.

I have this year... but wonder how they compare to previous.

Week	Cut Line
1	126.75
2	127.15
3	116.80
4	139.45
5	144.85
6	117.75
7	133.40
8	127.00

 

[Payne]

Made the cut despite not having a QB this week.

 

[TheWinz]

Week 9 projected starters, per FBG
QB - Dak Prescott vs ARI
RB1 - Derrick Henry at MIA
RB2 - Chase Brown vs CHI
WR1 - George Pickens vs ARI
WR2 - Stefon Diggs vs ATL
TE - Dalton Kincaid vs KC
Flex1 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs SEA
Flex2 - Woody Marks vs DEN
K - Tyler Loop at MIA
D - Los Angeles Chargers at TEN

Bench
QB Geno Smith, RB RJ Harvey, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Matthew Golden, WR Jalen Coker, WR Kayshon Boutte, TE Pat Freiermuth, K Chris Boswell, K Daniel Carlson, D Patriots, D Chiefs

Bye
WR Emeka Egbuka, WR Jahan Dotson, TE Dallas Goedert

 

[ZWK]

190.55 in week 8, 176.5 ppg so far. 26/30 players and $237/$250 have cracked my lineup.

I did a breakdown by player after week 6. Here's my scoring by position:

266.0 QB (33.3 ppg)
193.0 WR1 (24.1 ppg)
168.6 TE1 (21.1 ppg)
150.6 RB1 (18.8 ppg)
131.3 WR2 (16.4 ppg)
122.5 FLEX1 (15.3 ppg), 4 WR + 4 TE
121.7 PK (15.2 ppg)
99.5 FLEX2 (12.4 ppg), 5 WR + 2 TE + 1 RB
81.5 RB2 (10.2 ppg)
77.0 DEF (9.6 ppg)

Looking great: QB (Josh Allen + Justin Herbert) and PK (Chris Boswell + Blake Grupe + Cairo Santos).

Biggest weakness: RB2, especially with Kendre Miller now out for the year and Jordan Mason back into a committee. So at RB I'm now down to Saquon Barkley, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Bhayshul Tuten, and Mason. My RB2 spot was basically keeping up with my FLEX2 spot through week 6, but scored just 4.7+2.5 over the past 2 weeks.

 

[Army Eye]

Wondering if this was posted earlier and I missed it .. or if @Dacomish or @TheWinz has the data on Previous Year's Cut Line.

I have this year... but wonder how they compare to previous.

here is the data, quick and dirty for now

VALUES (1,'122.50'),
(14,'146.65'),(13,'163.45'),(12,'137.25'),
(11,'152.95'),(10,'117.85'),(9,'145.55'),
(8,'149.80'),(7,'125.65'),(6,'127.90'),(5,'119.35'),(4,'140.25'),(3,'118.75'),(2,'120.55');

 

[Titans_fan]

It's gonna be a sweat for me, but Love's performance last night might have saved me.

121 + JCM (-6.5) + Pacheco (-6.5) + Chiefs D

Landed at 127 exactly. Thankful for that last pick by the KC defense! It's not going to get any easier, but thankful to have survived a dud from the majority of my players.

 

[Irelad]

Well, I survived a surprise dud from Bijan, making this the only week thus far (aside from his week 5 bye), that I didn't use him. Thankfully, we have signs of life from Chase Brown!!! I certainly won't survive a dud from Bijan week 10 while Brown is on a bye though. Really regretting being so high on Braelon Allen ($10). I had some iterations where I had Grupe ($3) instead of Cam Little ($4), JCM and Woody Marks instead of Braelon Allen... would feel a lot better had I stuck with that. Braelon is my only dead money so far, and only chipped in one score (5.7 in week 3 that wouldn't have mattered) before going down for the season.

Love balled out with Goff on a bye, so now I get two QB scores from here on out, hooray! Pretty happy here, though I have had two weeks when both played and neither hit 20 points.

As with many people, I'll be missing Egbuka this week, plus Calvin Ridley seems unlikely to play. Need Sutton, Odunze and Keenan Allen to carry my WRs. Ayomanor may do more with Ridley out, and if Jakobi Meyers gets traded then my Tre Tucker pick could turn out to be a steal.

Hockenson has been largely a dud, but has still chipped in a few flex scores while Kraft and Warren carry the squad.

Hoping the bye helps Cam Little get back on track (the last two weeks before the bye he's put up 0 and 1 point). Boswell has been a stud, but nice to have a backup score just in case.

ATL and KC defenses have been underwhelming, and I'm a bit scared of week 10 when KC is on bye and I'll be stuck with the Falcons against Indy... looked like a decent matchup before the season started and Indy randomly started averaging 30 points per week

 

[rzrback77]

Updated stats for team rzrback77

QB Prescott 612 28.9% used 6 times
QB G Smith 120 17.7% used twice
RB C Brown 1,017 25.2% used 6 times
RJ Harvey 185 22.4% used twice
T Henderson 863 24.6% used once
JCM Bill 1,658 28.3% used 4 times
W Marks 431 38.8% used 3 times
RBs not used as flex players yet
WR JSN 448 32.5% used 6 times
WR Flowers 62 14.2% used twice
WR Diggs 366 25.0% used 3 times
WR Egbuka 1,639 29.3% used 4 times
WR M Brown 126 27.6% used twice
WR K Allen 793 22.1% used 3 times
WR T Franklin 352 36.5% used twice
WR Ayomanor 382 31.8% used once
WR K Boutte 239 38.0% used twice
WR P Bryant 191 28.7% NOT YET USED
WRs flexed nine times
TE T Kraft 563 34.9% used 3 times
TE Goedert 274 32.1% used 4 times
TE Ertz 286 24.1% used 3 times
TE Fannin 307 36.7% used 3 times
TE Knox 95 19.1% NOT YET USED
TE Barner 65 28.7% used twice
TEs flexed seven times
PK Little 407 23.4% used twice
PK Grupe 190 26.2% used 3 times
PK Santos 407 26.0% used 3 times
DST Jets 236 24.5% used once
DST Saints 93 27.3% used 4 times
DST Falcons 262 30.8% used 3 times

Only players not yet used are Knox $3 and P. Bryant $2. Only three of my 29 players have a survival rate less than the contest average 21.1%.

Best of luck to all going forward, may the turk be kept at bay!

 

[joey]

Just checked the weekly performance of my zombie team that was eliminated in week 2, and I’d still be alive now….except for getting eliminated in week 7. Oh, and also week 8 would’ve taken me out.

But if not for that, I’d be doing really great in this contest.

 

[TheWinz]

Just checked the weekly performance of my zombie team that was eliminated in week 2, and I’d still be alive now….except for getting eliminated in week 7. Oh, and also week 8 would’ve taken me out.

But if not for that, I’d be doing really great in this contest.

You'd still be alive if:
- Tre Tucker had his 40.9 in week 7, which you didn't need any of in week 3
- Baker Mayfield swapped his week 5 & 7 scores
- KC and NYJ swap scores for weeks 1 & 2
- Baker Mayfield swapped his weeks 1 & 8 scores

See how easy it would be?

 

[joey]

Just checked the weekly performance of my zombie team that was eliminated in week 2, and I’d still be alive now….except for getting eliminated in week 7. Oh, and also week 8 would’ve taken me out.

But if not for that, I’d be doing really great in this contest.

You'd still be alive if:
- Tre Tucker had his 40.9 in week 7, which you didn't need any of in week 3
- Baker Mayfield swapped his week 5 & 7 scores
- KC and NYJ swap scores for weeks 1 & 2
- Baker Mayfield swapped his weeks 1 & 8 scores

See how easy it would be?

That…or if I had just picked better players.

 

[TheWinz]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

 

[Maggot Brain]

No QB this week unless a Purdy miracle appearance occurs. It will be tough to outrun the Turk

 

[TheWinz]

No QB this week unless a Purdy miracle appearance occurs. It will be tough to outrun the Turk

Your RB's and 2 TE's will have to step up big time, because your WR's are thin

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

No QB this week unless a Purdy miracle appearance occurs. It will be tough to outrun the Turk

google AI....

Brock Purdy's status for Week 9 is uncertain due to a toe injury, but he is progressing and not considered a "long shot" to play against the New York Giants. His status will be determined after a Wednesday practice session, where the team will evaluate his recovery progress from the injury he sustained in Week 1 and re-aggravated in a later game.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

Is there a lesson there wrt winning the contest or is it a red herring?

 

[Puppies]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

Is there a lesson there wrt winning the contest or is it a red herring?

I think it’s important to remind ourselves when constructing a roster, that the object of this contest is not scoring the most points.

Rather, it’s constructing a roster in a way to spread out enough points across all 14 weeks in order to survive and make the playoffs.

This likely means your roster will not necessarily post as many really high weekly scores, but it also has a better chance of surviving
the first 14 weeks. Using this approach obviously means managing bye week absences, and usually means not rostering some players
we like, due to bye week conflicts with other players.

The wild card is injuries, which we all know will happen.

When I’m building my roster, I usually do so assuming I’m likely to lose a RB and a couple WR or TE to injuries. That goes into the calculation of how many players to roster at each position.

I think to win this contest, you probably have to be both good, and also a bit lucky.

 

[Puppies]

Wondering if this was posted earlier and I missed it .. or if @Dacomish or @TheWinz has the data on Previous Year's Cut Line.

I have this year... but wonder how they compare to previous.

Week	Cut Line
1	126.75
2	127.15
3	116.80
4	139.45
5	144.85
6	117.75
7	133.40
8	127.00

I have all the data going back to 2021, and I just tried to post a chart showing it. But the formatting was terrible and it was unreadable.
(this was by just copying and then trying to paste the spreadsheet values into a post here)

If I knew a way to post it so that it's readable, I would be happy to do that.

If there was a way to post a photo here, I'd just take a picture of the spreadsheet and post that, but I don't see any way to do that.
If anyone knows a way to post a spreadsheet, please chime in and let me know.

 

[Jayrod]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

Is there a lesson there wrt winning the contest or is it a red herring?

I think it’s important to remind ourselves when constructing a roster, that the object of this contest is not scoring the most points.

Rather, it’s constructing a roster in a way to spread out enough points across all 14 weeks in order to survive and make the playoffs.

This likely means your roster will not necessarily post as many really high weekly scores, but it also has a better chance of surviving
the first 14 weeks. Using this approach obviously means managing bye week absences, and usually means not rostering some players
we like, due to bye week conflicts with other players.

The wild card is injuries, which we all know will happen.

When I’m building my roster, I usually do so assuming I’m likely to lose a RB and a couple WR or TE to injuries. That goes into the calculation of how many players to roster at each position.

I think to win this contest, you probably have to be both good, and also a bit lucky.

I feel like this is only a part of the analysis (and why this is so tough). Because in order to actually WIN the contest, you have to have some really high scores for 3 weeks straight which is in direct conflict with securing a deeper roster for survival.

The true key to success is finding the diamonds in the rough who can either provide cheap consistency or have some kind of crazy run during the final 3 weeks. I basically built my roster around trying to find those guys and then building my position groups up from there.

 

[Maggot Brain]

No QB this week unless a Purdy miracle appearance occurs. It will be tough to outrun the Turk

Your RB's and 2 TE's will have to step up big time, because your WR's are thin

Note to self next year about that discussion concerning 3QB's vs 2QB's from further up thread

 

[Jayrod]

Current roster analysis through 8 weeks:

QB - still haven't used $11 Cam Ward, but Tua, Rodgers & Darnold (all $10) are avg 30.44 ppw. Love that all 4 are still playing & starting so I have no fewer than 3 active QB's each week. Only have Tua's bye in week 12 and Ward's in week 10 left to get through.

RB - signs of life from $26 Brown (my most expensive player) who has been my most used at 5 times and is the only RB I have avg > 10 ppw. My mess of 6 RB's behind him (down to 5 after Kendre Miller's injury) will need to either perfectly complement each other or see a guy or two take off after a very disappointing 8 weeks. RB1 avg 17.45 ppw but RB2 position is avg 10.05 ppw which is 2nd lowest behind my TDef scores. Have 3 weeks left with 1 RB in bye (Brown-10, JCM-12 & Henderson-14).

WR - still very strong with a lot of depth that got tested this week. JSN was on a bye and Pearsall was still hurt and Egbuka has cooled off. But never fear, Franklin stepped up for the second time this season and DJ Moore chipped in 11.6 with Allen's 8.4 as Flex2. I've used 7/8 WR's so far with Coker the only one not counting yet, but he is now actively playing. Avg 25.45 at WR1 & 18.84 at WR2 with 10/16 flex scores. Have some bye week risk in week 12 with Allen/Franklin out, otherwise should be fine.

TE - About to get tested as half of my group, the 2 TE's that counted this week (Goedert/Taylor), will be on a bye. Need a good game from Ertz and have an outside shot with rookie Terrance Ferguson who just broke double digits in week 7 and is coming off of a bye week. I shouldn't take a zero, but may end up with my lowest TE score of the season if Ertz has a down game. Avg 19.13 ppw from this group and have contributed 4 Flex1 scores this season. Ertz's bye in week 12 will be it after this week.

PK - loved my choices here and the Boswell/Grupe combo has averaged 13.93 ppw. Seems crazy that Tyler Loop hasn't counted yet but is averaging 9.03 ppw. All 3 still are healthy and employed so always a shot for some big numbers from any one on any given week. Only 1 more bye week left here as well.

TD - went with 4x $3 options and avg 8.5 ppw (ATL,LVR,NOS,MIA). Have Saints bye in week 11 and Dolphins in week 12 left. Each defense has been used at least once.

 

[TheWinz]

I know advancing each week is the goal, but with only Dak and Geno at QB, my biggest worry right now is Geno getting benched during Dak's week 10 bye. Of course that'll be moot if I get booted this week. Let's hope JAX makes Geno look good in week 9, so he still has a job in week 10.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I know advancing each week is the goal, but with only Dak and Geno at QB, my biggest worry right now is Geno getting benched during Dak's week 10 bye. Of course that'll be moot if I get booted this week. Let's hope JAX makes Geno look good in week 9, so he still has a job in week 10.

I can't see any point to starting Kenny Pickett over Gino...but considering the owner looks like he had a starring role in Slingblade, who knows what will happen.

 

[Charles in Houston]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

Is there a lesson there wrt winning the contest or is it a red herring?

I think it’s important to remind ourselves when constructing a roster, that the object of this contest is not scoring the most points.

Rather, it’s constructing a roster in a way to spread out enough points across all 14 weeks in order to survive and make the playoffs.

This likely means your roster will not necessarily post as many really high weekly scores, but it also has a better chance of surviving
the first 14 weeks. Using this approach obviously means managing bye week absences, and usually means not rostering some players
we like, due to bye week conflicts with other players.

The wild card is injuries, which we all know will happen.

When I’m building my roster, I usually do so assuming I’m likely to lose a RB and a couple WR or TE to injuries. That goes into the calculation of how many players to roster at each position.

I think to win this contest, you probably have to be both good, and also a bit lucky.

I agree and I've said it before - it's better to roster more middle-of-the-road players than a high dollar player or two at each position. And use all 30 roster positions with relatively cheap kickers and defenses. This spreads the risks of injury and bye weeks and poor performances out evenly across 30 "competent" contributors. Not likely to have as many record setting weeks, but also less likely to have sub-cutline weeks. Easy does it wins the race to Week 15.

 

[Charles in Houston]

Decided to see how the top weekly scoring teams have done

Week 1 - scored 215.20, booted week 7
Week 2 - scored 233.75, booted week 5
Week 3 - scored 232.00, survived week 4 by 1.40 pts, still alive
Week 4 - scored 240.75, survived week 3 by 4.00 pts, still alive
Week 5 - scored 238.55, survived week 7 by 5.70 pts, still alive
Week 6 - scored 223.95, survived week 8 by 1.6 pts, still alive
Week 7 - scored 254.70, survived week 4 by 5.80 pts, still alive
Week 8 - scored 223.25, survived week 4 by 12.50 pts, still alive

Looks like they all had a close call, except the week 8 team.

Is there a lesson there wrt winning the contest or is it a red herring?

I think it’s important to remind ourselves when constructing a roster, that the object of this contest is not scoring the most points.

Rather, it’s constructing a roster in a way to spread out enough points across all 14 weeks in order to survive and make the playoffs.

This likely means your roster will not necessarily post as many really high weekly scores, but it also has a better chance of surviving
the first 14 weeks. Using this approach obviously means managing bye week absences, and usually means not rostering some players
we like, due to bye week conflicts with other players.

The wild card is injuries, which we all know will happen.

When I’m building my roster, I usually do so assuming I’m likely to lose a RB and a couple WR or TE to injuries. That goes into the calculation of how many players to roster at each position.

I think to win this contest, you probably have to be both good, and also a bit lucky.

I feel like this is only a part of the analysis (and why this is so tough). Because in order to actually WIN the contest, you have to have some really high scores for 3 weeks straight which is in direct conflict with securing a deeper roster for survival.

The true key to success is finding the diamonds in the rough who can either provide cheap consistency or have some kind of crazy run during the final 3 weeks. I basically built my roster around trying to find those guys and then building my position groups up from there.

I think 80% skill in picking your roster and 20% luck gets you to Week 15, and then 20% skill and 80% luck takes over for the last 3 weeks. Personally, I consider it a total win for me if I just make it into the playoffs.