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2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (8 Viewers)

Done at 149.7
It seems too much to ask for a low scoring game tonight. 19.6 should be enough of a gap but not enough to feel confident with these two teams.

Henderson finally showing what he can do. JSN very much in the running for FF MVP, London doing well, egbuka a top candidate for bargain of the year. Hopefully Fanin continues to almost make up for Kraft.

hindsight - I was so close to taking Tyler Warren, but went with Mason Taylor to save a few bucks
:sadbanana:
 
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112.15 + Love - 23.05 + (Golden, Allen) - 9.40 + Goedert - 3.00 + Freiermuth - 1.30 + B - 14.40 -> est 137.5
vs
124.50 -> est 152.5

Hail mary, full of grace, help me win this stock car race.
did you run the numbers to come up with 152.5?

I did not. Sorry for not specifying. I GUESSED each of 2 games would add about 12.5 to the cutoff (moderately high scoring) and rounded based on Murphy's law.

As the real cutoff only went up by 6, I will again GUESS that tonights game will increase the cutoff by ~10 for a final cutoff of 140.
 
112.15 + Love - 23.05 + (Golden, Allen) - 9.40 + Goedert - 3.00 + Freiermuth - 1.30 + B - 14.40 -> est 137.5
vs
124.50 -> est 152.5

Hail mary, full of grace, help me win this stock car race.
I only made up about 2 points of about 12 points below the waterline.

Currently 119.55 vs 130.10 and I'm GUESSING a final cutoff of 138 (probably a 135-145 range of outcomes).

So I figure I need north of 20 points NET from Love - 23 + Golden - 3.9 + Goedert - 7.8.

Based on prior scoring on my roster, there's about a 2/3 chance Goedert hits with an average "high scoring week" of about 18, 50/50 on Golden with an average high of about 10, but only a little less than 20% chance Love comes in with a high number of...say...35.

That all nets...via my very non-rigorous math... to about a 2 outa 3 chance that I net 19 for 138.5 vs 138. I can hear the Turk whispering sweet nothings in my ear....I want you, I need you, but there aint no way I'm ever gonna love you. Now don't be sad, cuz 2 out 3 aint bad.

I feel his fetid breath on my neck. I think he has halitosis. (little mouse gives the finger to the inbound talons-wielding eagle).
 
15 from Franklin is a nice positive, but 6.85 for a QB score with Prescott on bye is a difficult hill to climb.
Well, much progress was made. Three players (Treyveon Henderson, Egbuka, & JSN with 20+, Jets 18, and three more at 15 places me at 167 and looking well.

Hoping many of you had several positive stunners posted to continue on.
 
112.15 + Love - 23.05 + (Golden, Allen) - 9.40 + Goedert - 3.00 + Freiermuth - 1.30 + B - 14.40 -> est 137.5
vs
124.50 -> est 152.5

Hail mary, full of grace, help me win this stock car race.
I only made up about 2 points of about 12 points below the waterline.

Currently 119.55 vs 130.10 and I'm GUESSING a final cutoff of 138 (probably a 135-145 range of outcomes).

So I figure I need north of 20 points NET from Love - 23 + Golden - 3.9 + Goedert - 7.8.

Based on prior scoring on my roster, there's about a 2/3 chance Goedert hits with an average "high scoring week" of about 18, 50/50 on Golden with an average high of about 10, but only a little less than 20% chance Love comes in with a high number of...say...35.

That all nets...via my very non-rigorous math... to about a 2 outa 3 chance that I net 19 for 138.5 vs 138. I can hear the Turk whispering sweet nothings in my ear....I want you, I need you, but there aint no way I'm ever gonna love you. Now don't be sad, cuz 2 out 3 aint bad.

I feel his fetid breath on my neck. I think he has halitosis. (little mouse gives the finger to the inbound talons-wielding eagle).
Good luck
 
Done at 149.7
It seems too much to ask for a low scoring game tonight. 19.6 should be enough of a gap but not enough to feel confident with these two teams.

Henderson finally showing what he can do. JSN very much in the running for FF MVP, London doing well, egbuka a top candidate for bargain of the year. Hopefully Fanin continues to almost make up for Kraft.

hindsight - I was so close to taking Tyler Warren, but went with Mason Taylor to save a few bucks
:sadbanana:
I'm really happy you're still alive in this thing, I thought we lost you a week or two back :clap:

-Next, I have a similar score to yours

Stafford, Marks, Egbuka, Keon Coleman, Fannin, Ertz and Loop

150.10
130.10 cut line right now, how high can this cut line go on MNF? I think it's going to be a tight game but you have a lot of explosive players that want to showcase in Primetime
 
At the price points you would have paid for Saquon, Jacobs, Hurts, AJB, Love, how many rosters could be loaded with these players tonight?
I think that has to be a factor in projecting the cut line even if some of these guys score tonight
 
Woohoo! I'm at 151.2 with Love (-34 from Goff, not expecting to replace that). Goff, Odunze, Egbuka, and Warren all went over 20, making up for a bit of a lackluster game from Bijan (Allgeier scored all the TDs), and surviving Chase Brown on bye. I doubt a 9.8 from Bijan and a 5.7 from Chubb will be enough to survive going forward.

As much as the Falcons game pained me as a fan, the defense played great against Indy, and gave me a great score when I needed them (only other defense was KC on bye).

Only player on bye next week is Warren, but that could be an issue, because with Kraft done, my only remaining TE is Hockenson, who has been quite a disappointment. Hopefully I get some better RB scores here moving forward.
 
Looking over upcoming bye weeks and who I'm missing. Week 14 is going to hurt if Josh Allen lays an egg.

Week 11 - Blake Grupe (Bos and Slye kicking)
Week 12 - Bill, Pat Bryant, and Evan Engram (Strange will still likely be off, leaving me with only Chig), Dolphins D (still have KC and ATL)
Week 14 - Drake Maye, CMC
 
I was sitting on only 96.0 points after the 1 pm games, and I think the cut line was about 91. But the cut line moved quickly from there after the 4pm games started.

Still no standings posted after the end of the 1pm games, so not sure what's up with that. I'm currently sitting on 124.25 at half-time of 4pm games, and according to Army Eye's scoring site, the cut line is currently 108.10.

Unfortunately, Seattle scored 2 defensive TDs, and there is not much incentive for Darnold to throw TDs and get me any more points at QB. I have to hope he gets at least one more passing TD, and/or Jordan Love puts up a big score on Monday night.

At least Fannin played today and put up 10.40 which is not great, but he was questionable to even play, so I'll take it. My best hopes with remaining players are probably Goedert, Freiermuth, and Keenan Allen. Maybe I'll get lucky and Golden will play on Monday, and actually put up some points, but the trend with him seems to be going in the opposite direction. Kupp got a nice long 67 yard reception in the 2nd quarter, but unfortunately did not quite make it to the end zone on that play.

It's been a terrible day for me at RB, with Chase Brown on bye, and James Cook only managing 10.20 points. My last hopes for another score at RB lies with Montogmery and JCM, so I'm not counting on much, but hoping for a surprise out of one of them.

This week for me this week, my survival probably boils down to how far the cut line rises.

Good luck to all you guys who are sweating it out this week like I am.
So you are at 124+ and have a bunch of guys currently playing and at least four more bullets in the chamber and you're sweating?

See ya guys next week would have been more accurate.
 
I'm at 145.95 (15.85 over the current cut) with Doubs (--7.6) left tonight. Feels like it might be close if Doubs doesn't have a double-digit game.

Rodgers' garbage time TD may have saved me.... Without that (and his whopping 12.05), I would possibly have been relying on Geno and his 6.85 this week (which would have put me about 10 over going into tonight). Of course, the true savior of my Week 10 was Henderson... If he only scores one of his two TD's, I'm likely cooked.

Week 11 byes....

Josh Downs IND WR - Assuming Pearsall is still out, I'm left with Sutton, Odunze, Ebguka, Doubs, J Lane, and Bateman.

J Johnson NOS TE - Leaves me with Ertz and M Taylor

Grupe NOS PK - Still have Santos and MAYBE Gano.

Would love to get Stroud back, not to mention Pearsall and Hampton. Having to rely on Rodgers and Geno at QB is brutal these days.
 
I was sitting on only 96.0 points after the 1 pm games, and I think the cut line was about 91. But the cut line moved quickly from there after the 4pm games started.

Still no standings posted after the end of the 1pm games, so not sure what's up with that. I'm currently sitting on 124.25 at half-time of 4pm games, and according to Army Eye's scoring site, the cut line is currently 108.10.

Unfortunately, Seattle scored 2 defensive TDs, and there is not much incentive for Darnold to throw TDs and get me any more points at QB. I have to hope he gets at least one more passing TD, and/or Jordan Love puts up a big score on Monday night.

At least Fannin played today and put up 10.40 which is not great, but he was questionable to even play, so I'll take it. My best hopes with remaining players are probably Goedert, Freiermuth, and Keenan Allen. Maybe I'll get lucky and Golden will play on Monday, and actually put up some points, but the trend with him seems to be going in the opposite direction. Kupp got a nice long 67 yard reception in the 2nd quarter, but unfortunately did not quite make it to the end zone on that play.

It's been a terrible day for me at RB, with Chase Brown on bye, and James Cook only managing 10.20 points. My last hopes for another score at RB lies with Montogmery and JCM, so I'm not counting on much, but hoping for a surprise out of one of them.

This week for me this week, my survival probably boils down to how far the cut line rises.

Good luck to all you guys who are sweating it out this week like I am.
So you are at 124+ and have a bunch of guys currently playing and at least four more bullets in the chamber and you're sweating?

See ya guys next week would have been more accurate.

Thank you for the vote of confidence, but things (so far) have materialized just as I had feared. I was just 5 points clear of the cut line after the 1pm games.

Knowing the cut line was going to rise,....
I needed a good score in the 4pm games from either JCM or David Montgomery at RB, and the scores they put up were 3.0 and 7.6.
i needed a good score in the 4pm game from Sam Darnold, but he only put up 13.7.
Those scores kept me barely 3.6 points above the cut line with fewer players left.

In the 8pm game, I knew the chances were not great to add to my score, with the following being my active players in the 8pm contest:
Freiermuth -9.4 . . . . . (and he only scored 7.8 for no help)
Keenan Allen -9.4 . . . . (and he only scored 3.9 for no help)
Bozwell - 14.4 . . . . . . . (and he only scored 6.9 for no help)

During the 8pm game, I added ZERO points to my score and the cut line rose 5.6 points, leaving me 2 points shy of the cut line with the Monday night game remaining.

My chances to make it to week 11 mostly depend on ( Jordan Love - 13.7) , and (Dallas Goedert -9.4) scoring enough either individually or combined beyond their respective 13.7 and 9.4 points that will not count, to add at least 10 additional points to my score, assuming the cut line does not move more than 7 more points tonight. It can move more as long as those last two players add more than the sum of the cut line movement plus the 2 points that I'm currently under the cut line. in order for me to survive by at least 0.05 points.

I also have Matthew Golden -9.4 (who is Questionable - and a game time decision at best)..... But he has hardly scored any points since Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have been getting more targets. His last 3 weekly scores were 7.7 , 3.4 , and 2.9. So it would be a fluke if he plays at all, and then somehow scores much more than 9.4.

The other long shot is Jahan Dotson - 9.4, who is only averaging 3.6 points per game, including 2 donuts, and is probably far more likely to put up another zero than to score more than 9.4 and actually add anything to my score.

Other than QB Jordan Love, If one player scores more than 9.4, any second player left would have to score more than 10.4 before anything additional gets added to my score.

Looking at the history of scoring for Goedert and Love, I still think I have a decent chance. If Love puts up at least 24, and/or Goedert puts up at least 22, I should be fine. Goedert is averaging 16.56, and Love is averaging 23.69. If they both score at least their average, I might still squeak by.

Wish me luck. It sucks that a couple other regulars are in worse shape than me.
 
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I was sitting on only 96.0 points after the 1 pm games, and I think the cut line was about 91. But the cut line moved quickly from there after the 4pm games started.

Still no standings posted after the end of the 1pm games, so not sure what's up with that. I'm currently sitting on 124.25 at half-time of 4pm games, and according to Army Eye's scoring site, the cut line is currently 108.10.

Unfortunately, Seattle scored 2 defensive TDs, and there is not much incentive for Darnold to throw TDs and get me any more points at QB. I have to hope he gets at least one more passing TD, and/or Jordan Love puts up a big score on Monday night.

At least Fannin played today and put up 10.40 which is not great, but he was questionable to even play, so I'll take it. My best hopes with remaining players are probably Goedert, Freiermuth, and Keenan Allen. Maybe I'll get lucky and Golden will play on Monday, and actually put up some points, but the trend with him seems to be going in the opposite direction. Kupp got a nice long 67 yard reception in the 2nd quarter, but unfortunately did not quite make it to the end zone on that play.

It's been a terrible day for me at RB, with Chase Brown on bye, and James Cook only managing 10.20 points. My last hopes for another score at RB lies with Montogmery and JCM, so I'm not counting on much, but hoping for a surprise out of one of them.

This week for me this week, my survival probably boils down to how far the cut line rises.

Good luck to all you guys who are sweating it out this week like I am.
So you are at 124+ and have a bunch of guys currently playing and at least four more bullets in the chamber and you're sweating?

See ya guys next week would have been more accurate.

Thank you for the vote of confidence, but things (so far) have materialized just as I had feared. I was just 5 points clear of the cut line after the 1pm games.

Knowing the cut line was going to rise,....
I needed a good score in the 4pm games from either JCM or David Montgomery at RB, and the scores they put up were 3.0 and 7.6.
i needed a good score in the 4pm game from Sam Darnold, but he only put up 13.7.
Those scores kept me barely 3.6 points above the cut line with fewer players left.

In the 8pm game, I knew the chances were not great to add to my score, with the following being my active players in the 8pm contest:
Freiermuth -9.4 . . . . . (and he only scored 7.8 for no help)
Keenan Allen -9.4 . . . . (and he only scored 3.9 for no help)
Bozwell - 14.4 . . . . . . . (and he only scored 6.9 for no help)

During the 8pm game, I added ZERO points to my score and the cut line rose 5.6 points, leaving me 2 points shy of the cut line with the Monday night game remaining.

My chances to make it to week 11 mostly depend on ( Jordan Love - 13.7) , and (Dallas Goedert -9.4) scoring enough either individually or combined beyond their respective 13.7 and 9.4 points that will not count, to add at least 10 additional points to my score, assuming the cut line does not move more than 7 more points tonight. It can move more as long as those last two players add more than the sum of the cut line movement plus the 2 points that I'm currently under the cut line. in order for me to survive by at least 0.05 points.

I also have Matthew Golden -9.4 (who is Questionable - and a game time decision at best)..... But he has hardly scored any points since Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have been getting more targets. His last 3 weekly scores were 7.7 , 3.4 , and 2.9. So it would be a fluke if he plays at all, and then somehow scores much more than 9.4.

The other long shot is Jahan Dotson - 9.4, who is only averaging 3.6 points per game, including 2 donuts, and is probably far more likely to put up another zero than to score more than 9.4 and actually add anything to my score.

Other than QB Jordan Love, If one player scores more than 9.4, any second player left would have to score more than 10.4 before anything additional gets added to my score.

Looking at the history of scoring for Goedert and Love, I still think I have a decent chance. If Love puts up at least 24, and/or Goedert puts up at least 22, I should be fine. Goedert is averaging 16.56, and Love is averaging 23.69. If they both score at least their average, I might still squeak by.

Wish me luck. It sucks that a couple other regulars are in worse shape than me.
The good thing is that with one player on both teams, you will always have someone that could post points.

The bad is that 377 teams or 23% have Golden. It's very likely you're better off with Golden not playing.
 
This is going to be an interesting night for me. Sitting at 121 (9.1 below current cut) with all of Love and Goedert (-5.7/7.8) and Golden (-5.7/7.8).

Don't expect Golden to count, but I'm hoping Love & Goedert can make up the 9 points quickly and then have a relatively uneventful game from that point forward!
 
This is going to be an interesting night for me. Sitting at 121 (9.1 below current cut) with all of Love and Goedert (-5.7/7.8) and Golden (-5.7/7.8).

Don't expect Golden to count, but I'm hoping Love & Goedert can make up the 9 points quickly and then have a relatively uneventful game from that point forward!

you and me chief. same exact players but I'm at 119.5. Time for Love to earn that 27th birthday.
 
This is going to be an interesting night for me. Sitting at 121 (9.1 below current cut) with all of Love and Goedert (-5.7/7.8) and Golden (-5.7/7.8).

Don't expect Golden to count, but I'm hoping Love & Goedert can make up the 9 points quickly and then have a relatively uneventful game from that point forward!

you and me chief. same exact players but I'm at 119.5. Time for Love to earn that 27th birthday.
20 or so & you should be good I would think
 
Last year was my first FBG Subscriber Contest. I went with a roster of 26 and made to week 14 when the wheels came off due in large part to my 7 WR's scoring a combined total of 2.20 points. I decided to go a different route this year, choosing a 21-man roster with more firepower. I liked this year's team better even though it didn't go as far. Thought I'd post a post-mortem on my team on the way out...

QB Patrick Mahomes - $20: Very good pick. Over 30 points in 7 of 9 weeks.​
QB Tua Tagovailoa - $10: Disappointing even at $10. Took him over Stafford due to concerns about Stafford's back. Big mistake.
QB Joe Flacco - $8. A tale of two seasons. Great bargain after being traded to Bengals.
RB Bijan Robinson - $37: Solid pick even with the cost. Tapered off the past couple of weeks, the worst time possible.
RB Derrick Henry - $31: Overpaid. Huge week one. Mediocre after that.
RB Jordan Mason - $11: Decent until the last couple of weeks, when I really needed him.
RB Nick Chubb - $8: Disappointing, even when $8 cost is considered.
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt - $6: One big week, but basically a bust.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $23: Home run! Grand Slam even! League winner.
WR Matthew Golden - $12: Horrible pick. Bought into preseason hype. Considered Stefon Diggs instead. Took the wrong one.
WR Ricky Pearsall - $11: Can't make the club from the tub. Out for the last 5 weeks when I could have used him.
WR Emeka Egbuka - $10: Great pick.
WR DeAndre Hopkins - $5: Had Troy Franklin at $3 and Boutte at $2 instead of D-Hop on my final roster which glitched somehow and didn't get processed. I knew this would come back to bite me, which it did in week 10.
WR Keenan Allen - $5: Great value pick.
TE Travis Kelce - $20: Solid. Was worried (with good reason it turns out) about week 10 with he and Mahomes out.
TE Tyler Warren - $14: Great pick. Another league winner.
TE Mason Taylor - $7: Only 3 weeks in double digits. Hampered by horrible QB play.
PK Cairo Santos - $3: Solid production for $3.
PK Blake Grupe - $3: Ditto.
TD Jacksonville Jaguars - $3: Solid production for $3.
TD Atlanta Falcons - $3: Ditto.
TOTAL131.55
CUT LINE134.90

 
Looks like I'll be saying goodnight. Week 10 exit not bad really. I hated my team and am surprised I made it this far.
You and me both ... Congrats on making it this far!

The GB Def got their typical 2 pts .... leaving me with 129.85 and the cut of 134.90
Missed it by 5.05 ...

My biggest 3 disappointing selections:

#3 is SF WR Ricky Pearsall $11 ... his week 1 & 3 scores were used but both replaceable with Bench options and still clear the cut smoothly.

#2 Wash RB Mr Bill JCM $6 ...used 3x and all 3 were replaceable

#1 Tenn RB Tony Pollard $19 ... broke 10 pt barrier 2x ... you hope for more out of a projected RB1 while Spears was hurt...
 
No Regrets . . .

This week I fell short by 5.9 points
, but if I had to do it all over again, I would use the same strategy and same method,

and construct my roster in the same exact way I did this year. The process used virtually everything I've learned playing
this contest over the last 15 years, in terms of how many players to roster at each position, the size of the total roster, and
how to seek out "value players" by soaking up information like a sponge for every NLF team during camp before the season
begins.

This year I hit on several value plays including, Franklin $3 (counted 5 times), Boutte $2 (counted 4 times), and Ayomanor $2
(counted 3 times). That trio gave me a total of 12 good scores for a total outlay of only $7❗

Harold Fannin $4 (counted 6 times) and outscored Pat Freiermuth and Mark Andrews for far less cap money.
Dallas Goedert $10 (counted 6 times), and outscored my other 3 TEs.

Additional hits were Egbuka $10 (counted 6 times), Keenan Allen $5, (counted 5), Darnold $10 (counted 5 times, and averaged
more per game than my other 2 higher priced QBs),

Ultimately it was a rash of injuries in week 9 that did me in this week. My bye weeks were front loaded early in the season and
well spread out. I will always employ that strategy, among others.

Good luck going forward to all the survivors❗



Here is a peek at my results from a better week:



Week 8


QB Jordan Love - $1535.90
QB C.J. Stroud - $1429.90
QB Sam Darnold - $100.00
RB Chase Brown - $2624.00
RB James Cook - $2533.60
RB David Montgomery - $180.00
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt - $62.50
RB Tahj Brooks - $40.00
WR Matthew Golden - $123.40
WR Ricky Pearsall - $110.00
WR Christian Kirk - $100.00
WR Cooper Kupp - $100.00
WR Emeka Egbuka - $106.50
WR Keenan Allen - $58.40
WR Troy Franklin - $326.90
WR Jahan Dotson - $211.00
WR Kayshon Boutte - $216.50
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - $22.80
WR Elic Ayomanor - $29.20
TE Mark Andrews - $187.90
TE Dallas Goedert - $1119.30
TE Pat Freiermuth - $95.80
TE Harold Fannin Jr. - $421.40
PK Tyler Loop - $413.40
PK Chris Boswell - $422.00
PK Blake Grupe - $34.80
TD Kansas City Chiefs - $46.00
TD Jacksonville Jaguars - $30.00
TD New Orleans Saints - $35.00
TOTAL216.60
CUT LINE127.00
 
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Unofficial future cutlines: No ties affected the future cutlines, (not counting ties that may affect the final cut numbers):

Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 6511
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5209
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4169
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3341
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2339
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1640
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1148
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 804
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 563
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 338
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.

- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.

- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
 
I was one of the guys that wanted few points for the game last night. The FF overlords were on my side. Both teams had little to spare for receivers or flex spots and both were in the clubhouse.

Team one finished comfortably with 160.80 but the other just made it with 137.70.

I also made the cut in a Guillotine league by less then one point as well.

I’m sorry to see the losses.
 
Out by 9.35, when Golden was declared inactive I knew only way I'd survive was a mid teen kind of day from Philly D.

On one hand surprised I lasted this long with just Tua at QB since week 2. And actually kind of comforted by the fact that I went out a week I'd not have had Burrow anyway so in the end his injury never really mattered to me which is kind of crazy in the sense since he went down in week 2I thought this team was shot.

On the other hand super disappointing timing right when Burrow is trying to come back and giving me some legit hope but I'd have still needed to pull of a super difficult feat of advancing in week 12 without a QB, even if I'd have got through this week.

9 zero's did me in, with the Bengals and Aubrey planned. Burrow, Chase Brown, Tee, Braelon, Golden, Ricky P, Kraft, Aubrey and Kendre.

Good luck everyone still left and especially to message board regulars, you got this!
 

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