EBF
Footballguy
This was an interesting draft for me because a lot of the WRs who were high on my board pre-draft fell a round or two and a lot of the ones that I didn't like went high. The result is that a lot of players that I have no interest in are coming off the board early while some intriguing talents are sliding later than I expected a month ago. In terms of value per cost, the sweet spot seems to be with the fourth round WRs: Boyce, Harper, and Patton.
While I wouldn't say any of these guys are elite talents, they're all pretty good. Good enough to potentially become productive full-time starters. Perhaps more importantly, they all landed on teams with good QB play. As we saw last season, good QB play can elevate modest talents like Eric Decker, James Jones, Lance Moore, and TY Hilton to the point where they're solid weekly starting options. The same could eventually happen for these guys.
Josh Boyce, Patriots (Pick 102) - I've been pretty vocal in my support of Boyce and my criticism of the Aaron Dobson pick. I think this is a situation like Brian Quick/Chris Givens or Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams where the 4th round pick has a lot more talent than the 2nd round pick and is a big favorite to outperform him from day one. People talk about Dobson as a compelling talent, but in reality he was an unproductive college player who never topped 700 receiving yards in four college seasons. Boyce is not only a much better athlete, but also a better football player. He has a rare package of physical tools. Not tall at 5'11", but very solid for his height at 206 pounds. He turned in one of the best workouts of any receiver at the combine, flashing a rare combination of strength (22 bench reps), quickness (6.66 second three cone time), and vertical explosiveness (4.38 40 and 10'11" broad jump). He also looked like the best route runner in the positional drills.
I don't think Boyce has the look of a #1 NFL receiver, but what he brings is versatility and rare athletic ability. He can line up in the slot or outside. His speed and quickness make him a constant threat on a variety of routes. While he's not a huge target, he's still a decent TD threat because he can win contested passes or break long plays with his speed. The Patriots have shown that they can get great results from non-traditional weapons (Hernandez, Gronk, Woodhead, Welker). I think that bodes really well for Boyce. He should become a quick favorite of Brady/Belichick and could push the 700-800 yard barrier as a rookie if things break right for him.
Chris Harper, Seahawks (Pick 123) - One of my favorite players in the draft. A unique and unprecedented prospect. He's not what I would call an explosive athlete and he doesn't have a consistently great burst out of his routes to gain separation, but he has some special qualities that could see him become a surprise hit in the NFL. The most obvious of those qualities is size. At 6'0.6" and 230 pounds, Harper has a height/weight ratio more in line with a TE or a RB than a WR. The difference in body mass between Harper and typical "big" NFL receivers like Fitzgerald/Bryant/VJackson is about equal to the difference between those receivers and thinner players like Wayne/Green/Maclin. He's in his own XXL class from a frame standpoint. When you look at Harper in that context, his 4.55 speed and 6.89 three cone time become more impressive. He isn't fast or explosive compared to the typical WR, but he's fast and explosive for a player with his body type. Mobile enough that corners have to respect the threat of his speed and quickness. What's most unique about his playing style is that he doesn't really have to be open to catch the ball because he can bully corners at the catch point. There are some plays on his highlight reels like this one where defenders literally bounce off of him when they try to close.
What also stands out to me about Harper is that he has a big wing span and great hands. He attacks the ball in a crowd and always catches it away from his frame. He improved each season in college and became a consistent producer as a senior, netting at least 50 receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 games despite suffering from Collin Klein's horrendous QB play. Overall, Harper figures to be a very difficult matchup for pro corners, many of whom will surrender 30-45 pounds to him. Like Boyce, he should benefit tremendously from his situation. Russell Wilson is one of the rising stars at QB and Harper should thrive as one of his primary targets. I see him eventually becoming a better version of James Jones. He's a similar player, but bigger with much more reliable hands.
Quinton Patton, 49ers (Pick 128) - I was surprised to see Patton slide out of the draft's second day. He doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait and that might be why he went below lesser receivers like Dobson and Goodwin, but he has a good chance to stick as a complementary weapon. He was a prolific producer in college, posting gaudy stats for two years in a row including some big games against tough competition. He's a fluid player with a strong frame and quick feet. He has very reliable hands and is a high character type who will work hard and fit in well in the locker room. He has just enough speed to occasionally get deep.
I have Patton ranked below Harper and Boyce partially because he doesn't have any standout tools and partially because I think the situation is a little less favorable. I'm higher on Brady/Wilson as pure passers compared to Kaepernick and neither the Patriots nor Seahawks have a reliable #1 receiver whereas Crabtree started to become that kind of player in the second half of last season. Nevertheless, I think the 49ers got a nice value in Patton and I rate him ahead of several receivers who came off the board earlier in the draft (Dobson, Goodwin, Williams, Bailey).
4th round NFL draft picks rarely become standout players or even adequate starters, but my hunch is that this group has more talent and potential than the typical receiver selected in this range. I've finished several rookie drafts already and I've looked at many others. I think this trio offers good return on your investment and I recommend taking a chance on them if they fall to spot where the price is reasonable (20th-25th overall pick). I think we'll look back on this draft class in a few years and see that these guys probably deserved to go a little higher. I even like the other 4th round WR Ace Sanders, although his skill set makes him less relevant for FF (return man/slot receiver).
While I wouldn't say any of these guys are elite talents, they're all pretty good. Good enough to potentially become productive full-time starters. Perhaps more importantly, they all landed on teams with good QB play. As we saw last season, good QB play can elevate modest talents like Eric Decker, James Jones, Lance Moore, and TY Hilton to the point where they're solid weekly starting options. The same could eventually happen for these guys.
Josh Boyce, Patriots (Pick 102) - I've been pretty vocal in my support of Boyce and my criticism of the Aaron Dobson pick. I think this is a situation like Brian Quick/Chris Givens or Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams where the 4th round pick has a lot more talent than the 2nd round pick and is a big favorite to outperform him from day one. People talk about Dobson as a compelling talent, but in reality he was an unproductive college player who never topped 700 receiving yards in four college seasons. Boyce is not only a much better athlete, but also a better football player. He has a rare package of physical tools. Not tall at 5'11", but very solid for his height at 206 pounds. He turned in one of the best workouts of any receiver at the combine, flashing a rare combination of strength (22 bench reps), quickness (6.66 second three cone time), and vertical explosiveness (4.38 40 and 10'11" broad jump). He also looked like the best route runner in the positional drills.
I don't think Boyce has the look of a #1 NFL receiver, but what he brings is versatility and rare athletic ability. He can line up in the slot or outside. His speed and quickness make him a constant threat on a variety of routes. While he's not a huge target, he's still a decent TD threat because he can win contested passes or break long plays with his speed. The Patriots have shown that they can get great results from non-traditional weapons (Hernandez, Gronk, Woodhead, Welker). I think that bodes really well for Boyce. He should become a quick favorite of Brady/Belichick and could push the 700-800 yard barrier as a rookie if things break right for him.
Chris Harper, Seahawks (Pick 123) - One of my favorite players in the draft. A unique and unprecedented prospect. He's not what I would call an explosive athlete and he doesn't have a consistently great burst out of his routes to gain separation, but he has some special qualities that could see him become a surprise hit in the NFL. The most obvious of those qualities is size. At 6'0.6" and 230 pounds, Harper has a height/weight ratio more in line with a TE or a RB than a WR. The difference in body mass between Harper and typical "big" NFL receivers like Fitzgerald/Bryant/VJackson is about equal to the difference between those receivers and thinner players like Wayne/Green/Maclin. He's in his own XXL class from a frame standpoint. When you look at Harper in that context, his 4.55 speed and 6.89 three cone time become more impressive. He isn't fast or explosive compared to the typical WR, but he's fast and explosive for a player with his body type. Mobile enough that corners have to respect the threat of his speed and quickness. What's most unique about his playing style is that he doesn't really have to be open to catch the ball because he can bully corners at the catch point. There are some plays on his highlight reels like this one where defenders literally bounce off of him when they try to close.
What also stands out to me about Harper is that he has a big wing span and great hands. He attacks the ball in a crowd and always catches it away from his frame. He improved each season in college and became a consistent producer as a senior, netting at least 50 receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 games despite suffering from Collin Klein's horrendous QB play. Overall, Harper figures to be a very difficult matchup for pro corners, many of whom will surrender 30-45 pounds to him. Like Boyce, he should benefit tremendously from his situation. Russell Wilson is one of the rising stars at QB and Harper should thrive as one of his primary targets. I see him eventually becoming a better version of James Jones. He's a similar player, but bigger with much more reliable hands.
Quinton Patton, 49ers (Pick 128) - I was surprised to see Patton slide out of the draft's second day. He doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait and that might be why he went below lesser receivers like Dobson and Goodwin, but he has a good chance to stick as a complementary weapon. He was a prolific producer in college, posting gaudy stats for two years in a row including some big games against tough competition. He's a fluid player with a strong frame and quick feet. He has very reliable hands and is a high character type who will work hard and fit in well in the locker room. He has just enough speed to occasionally get deep.
I have Patton ranked below Harper and Boyce partially because he doesn't have any standout tools and partially because I think the situation is a little less favorable. I'm higher on Brady/Wilson as pure passers compared to Kaepernick and neither the Patriots nor Seahawks have a reliable #1 receiver whereas Crabtree started to become that kind of player in the second half of last season. Nevertheless, I think the 49ers got a nice value in Patton and I rate him ahead of several receivers who came off the board earlier in the draft (Dobson, Goodwin, Williams, Bailey).
4th round NFL draft picks rarely become standout players or even adequate starters, but my hunch is that this group has more talent and potential than the typical receiver selected in this range. I've finished several rookie drafts already and I've looked at many others. I think this trio offers good return on your investment and I recommend taking a chance on them if they fall to spot where the price is reasonable (20th-25th overall pick). I think we'll look back on this draft class in a few years and see that these guys probably deserved to go a little higher. I even like the other 4th round WR Ace Sanders, although his skill set makes him less relevant for FF (return man/slot receiver).
