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**AFC Divisional Round - Ravens at Bills** (+1, 51.5) 6:30 on CBS (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Hard to take off my homer glasses for this one.
I will point out that in the first meeting the Ravens were a challenging 1-2 while the Bills were flying high, having already beaten Miami and starting 3-0
Also missing on defense were:
Von Miller
Both starting LBs - Milano and Bernard
Cornerback Johnson who plays full time in their base package
Safety Rapp was injured in Q2
I want to think the defense is completely different than last time, plus home field crowd noise, but maybe I am just HOPING it is
I will point out that in the first meeting the Ravens were a challenging 1-2 while the Bills were flying high, having already beaten Miami and starting 3-0
Also missing on defense were:
Von Miller
Both starting LBs - Milano and Bernard
Cornerback Johnson who plays full time in their base package
Safety Rapp was injured in Q2
I want to think the defense is completely different than last time, plus home field crowd noise, but maybe I am just HOPING it is
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karl.Racki
Footballguy
Ravens 34-28.. I just think they are playing too well not to get to the Super Bowl this year.I think that D will put pressure on Allen and cause some turnovers.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It ends for Buffalo here. I think Baltimore actually wins this one fairly comfortably.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Even though I am steadfast that Josh Allen should be the MVP this season, the improvement of the Ravens defense and King Henry still running it as good as ever has me thinking this might be their year now. There is always the chance that playoff Lamar shows up again, but if he doesn't, I don't see the Ravens losing.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
These are two excellent teams, but Baltimore has a slightly better roster and is playing with slightly better form. It's not like Buffalo stumbled into the playoffs or anything like that, but Baltimore has that "hot at the right time" vibe.
The_Man
Footballguy
Ravens have gone from a 1-point underdog when the line opened to a 1.5-point favorite
Looking through my purple glasses, I think Regular Season Lamar has finally carried his skills over into Playoff Lamar. To me, it started with the December regular season game vs Pittsburgh, who had won 8 of 9 vs Baltimore, in part by speeding Lamar up and making him play a little frantic. He even noted himself that he had gotten too amped up in past playoff games. Now he's finally calmed down in these big moments
Baltimore's running game is playing at an extraordinary level right now, and they're altering their schemes during the game to counter whatever defenses are doing to try to stop them. One of the results? They have a run of 43+ yards in the second half of the last 4 games:
4th Q vs Pit– 44-yard Henry run
3rd Q vs Hou– 48-yard Lamar run
4th Q vs Cle– 43-yard Henry run
3rd Q vs Pitt– 44-yard Henry run
Those are some pretty good run defenses that the Ravens are wearing down, then delivering the knockout. And the wildcat snap to Henry with Lamar on the jet sweep motion this week was a totally new wrinkle - maybe next time Henry hands the ball to Lamar instead of keeping it, and then Lamar can either run or pass.
A lot could still go wrong for Baltimore in this game. Penalties, a season-long issue, could put them behind the sticks. I don't think Zay plays and that definitely hurts. And Baltimore has been poor in coverage in the middle of the field, where Allen could feast. But the wind doesn't look bad and I don't think the Bills will be able to shut down this offense all day long.
Looking through my purple glasses, I think Regular Season Lamar has finally carried his skills over into Playoff Lamar. To me, it started with the December regular season game vs Pittsburgh, who had won 8 of 9 vs Baltimore, in part by speeding Lamar up and making him play a little frantic. He even noted himself that he had gotten too amped up in past playoff games. Now he's finally calmed down in these big moments
Baltimore's running game is playing at an extraordinary level right now, and they're altering their schemes during the game to counter whatever defenses are doing to try to stop them. One of the results? They have a run of 43+ yards in the second half of the last 4 games:
4th Q vs Pit– 44-yard Henry run
3rd Q vs Hou– 48-yard Lamar run
4th Q vs Cle– 43-yard Henry run
3rd Q vs Pitt– 44-yard Henry run
Those are some pretty good run defenses that the Ravens are wearing down, then delivering the knockout. And the wildcat snap to Henry with Lamar on the jet sweep motion this week was a totally new wrinkle - maybe next time Henry hands the ball to Lamar instead of keeping it, and then Lamar can either run or pass.
A lot could still go wrong for Baltimore in this game. Penalties, a season-long issue, could put them behind the sticks. I don't think Zay plays and that definitely hurts. And Baltimore has been poor in coverage in the middle of the field, where Allen could feast. But the wind doesn't look bad and I don't think the Bills will be able to shut down this offense all day long.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
This might not be fair, but either Jackson’s or Allen’s legacy is likely to take a hit depending on who loses, no? I’d argue that no two QBs had more pressure to reach the Super Bowl this season than these two.
kylechoffman
Footballguy
Ravens since the loss to the Eagles: 5-0. Two of those teams were 3-14, the other three were vs playoff teams, one of which just ended a 5 game losing streak and the other (outside of this past weekend) hasnt looked like a complete team. Ravens have all the tools to win this but they are now facing the hardest competition since week 13. Looking forward to this one over any of the others this weekend.
I think the Ravens are a team of destiny. I think the Bills have never been as good as their record. This feels like a blowout to me, not too dissimilar to their earlier meeting.
I think the Ravens dominate time of possession and run for over 200 yards on the ground. Henry should have a monster game, and if they overcommit to him, good luck with Lamar. The Bills D simply isn't talented enough to contain both. Mark Andrews was basically a non-factor in the 1st game, he's arguably the hottest TE in the NFL down the stretch. I think he'll be a reliable chain mover. I think Flowers is a decoy if he plays, but frankly, I don't know that they need him.
For the Bills, they need Von Miller to be sitting on a vintage 1st ballot HOFer performance this week. Considering what the Ravens did to Watt, Garrett, and the Texans guys, the last month, I wouldn't count on it.
I think the Ravens run D really limits the Bills. Where the Bills need to win is they need the high profile quiet guys to really step up. Dalton Kincaid and Amari Cooper. I just don't see that they will (Kincaid is more likely) and ultimately, I see this being a game where Josh Allen has to will the Bills to victory, and while he's done that many times, not against this team.
Ravens-35
Bills-14
I think the Ravens dominate time of possession and run for over 200 yards on the ground. Henry should have a monster game, and if they overcommit to him, good luck with Lamar. The Bills D simply isn't talented enough to contain both. Mark Andrews was basically a non-factor in the 1st game, he's arguably the hottest TE in the NFL down the stretch. I think he'll be a reliable chain mover. I think Flowers is a decoy if he plays, but frankly, I don't know that they need him.
For the Bills, they need Von Miller to be sitting on a vintage 1st ballot HOFer performance this week. Considering what the Ravens did to Watt, Garrett, and the Texans guys, the last month, I wouldn't count on it.
I think the Ravens run D really limits the Bills. Where the Bills need to win is they need the high profile quiet guys to really step up. Dalton Kincaid and Amari Cooper. I just don't see that they will (Kincaid is more likely) and ultimately, I see this being a game where Josh Allen has to will the Bills to victory, and while he's done that many times, not against this team.
Ravens-35
Bills-14
The Duff Man
Footballguy
It is baffling to me that a team who beat the #1 seed in both conferences, both in the second half of the season is seen as not as good as their record?
Different question, had Lamar ever played in snow? Looks like single digits also.
I don't think cold will affect either qb
Snow?
Does it help/hurt LaMar's running?
Does it help/hurt The Bills defenders?
Defenders backpeddling in snow is an issue
But can LaMar make cuts when he runs without slipping?
Interesting dynamic if it snows
The_Man
Footballguy
Don't think it's supposed to snow and, as of now, wind looks fine - just below 10 mph. Both these teams like to go with 2 TEs, with 2 RBs, and with 6 OL. Will be interesting to see how Allen and Lamar can make explosive passing plays from these run-heavy looks. Intermediate passing across the middle has been a weak spot for the Ravens Defense all year. But TEs Andrews and Likely are dangerous offensive threats out of play action.
Wouldn't want to tackle either Henry or Cook in single digit temps
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I think Baltimore is getting a little overrated right now. Since they limped into their week 14 bye, they've beaten: NYG, PIT x2, CLE and HOU. Not exactly a murder's row of good teams but now they are being talked about as a "team of destiny" or "most complete team in the NFL." Little bit of recency bias I think.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
So 3 out of those 5 wins against playoff teams. Baltimore obliterated all of them. I would say that’s pretty impressive. Also, how a team is playing recently does matter. I don’t really care what they looked like week 4.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Well if you're going to look at how a team played recently, then PIT was garbage to end the season. They lost their last 5 games and 6 of their last 8. They were probably the weakest playoff team in this years field. So what is it, does recency bias matter or not. Because then your logic is kind of shot.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I gotta agree with using recent results because then we get to throw out the week 4 loss 
Funny enough, week 4 the Ravens beat Buffalo 35-10.
But yeah, I don't really get the recency bias argument. Weeks 4-7 they beat Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay (3 playoff teams and the best team that missed) and all but Cincy were dominant wins.
The Ravens 5 losses were by a combined 22 points. In those 5 losses their HOF kicker missed 8 kicks. He seems to have gotten over that, as he hasn't missed since that week 14 bye.
This Ravens team could EASILY have gone 16-1. The only game they really looked like the lesser team in was the Eagles game, and again, that game had 3 Tucker misses in a game they lost by 5. The offense is historically good, the defense hasn't given up over 17 points since the bye week, and even before that, the only team to top 24 points against them since October was the Bengals.
The Ravens have both the best passing offense and best rushing offense in the NFL. They also have the best run defense in the NFL. In all seriousness, I struggle to find anything the Bills do better than Baltimore, other than play in an easier division.
The_Man
Footballguy
I think your view might be influenced by watching the Eagles put a pretty solid beating on a team that was absolutely out of gas (note: they really needed the Bye and they were playing Philly on Sunday following a Monday Night Game in LA, all of which had them looking pretty lethargic that day)
Ravens' 5 games before "limping into bye" =
Beat Broncos* by 31
Beat Cincinnati
Lost at Pittsburgh* by 2 points with 3 turnovers and 3 missed Tucker kicks
Won at Chargers*
Lost to Eagles* by 5 points
* playoff team
Since then they've beaten Pittsburgh by 17 and 14 points and beat Houston, who is one of the 4 remaining AFC playoff teams, by 29 points on the road
There's no question they're playing much better now but it seems part of that is because the Bye revitalized/rejuvenated the team, and part is because they were slow playing things a bit heading into the Bye. They've been running Henry from the pony formation more and more since the Bye and nobody has had an answer yet.
The other big change is the secondary shuffle. Moving Hamilton to deep Safety, and benching Marcus Williams for Ar'Darius Washington is getting all the hype. But they're also now playing their first round pick Nate Wiggins at outside CB on pretty much 100% of the snaps, after slowly working him into the lineup, which has enabled them to move Marlon Humphrey into slot CB where he is wrecking people.
We'll see, but I think there is a good case to be made that the current Ravens team is more reflective of how good they are then how they looked heading into the Bye
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Me, too. That allows me to throw out the LV & Cleveland gamesI gotta agree with using recent results because then we get to throw out the week 4 loss
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Well the Eagles were up 12 with 1:03 left on the Ravens last drive. So they weren't really trying to stop the Ravens, just make them use up clock. So yeah, they lost by 5, but it wasn't really that close.
The Ravens also have the worst passing defense, so I don't really see them stopping Buffalo too many times.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Data in favour of Buffalo. Their offense was quietly dominant.
Buff
Pts per play 0.507
Pts per drive 3.22
% of drives getting pts 46.6
Bal
Pts per play 0.484
Pts per drive 3.03
% of drives getting pts 45.0%
ESPN data shows Baltimore as having had the 17th hardest schedule, Buffalo 18 so nearly identical.
I would argue that Buff played Patsx2 and Jets as the final three games that didn’t matter so those could be thrown out, the last in particular with backups in. Their numbers are higher with the last game (or three) excluded.
Looking at home-away
Buff home pts per drive 0.555
Bal away pts per drive 0.474
Buff
Pts per play 0.507
Pts per drive 3.22
% of drives getting pts 46.6
Bal
Pts per play 0.484
Pts per drive 3.03
% of drives getting pts 45.0%
ESPN data shows Baltimore as having had the 17th hardest schedule, Buffalo 18 so nearly identical.
I would argue that Buff played Patsx2 and Jets as the final three games that didn’t matter so those could be thrown out, the last in particular with backups in. Their numbers are higher with the last game (or three) excluded.
Looking at home-away
Buff home pts per drive 0.555
Bal away pts per drive 0.474
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Pittsburgh was never an elite team. They were exposed when they played the elite teams. They beat up on the lesser teams. I classify Pittsburgh (and Houston) as average to maybe slightly above average relative to the rest of the league. Baltimore beat those teams in dominant fashion. Yes recent play does matter because teams do adjust, get healthy and improve over the course of a season. That seems to have happened with Baltimore.
But honestly it makes no difference- if you want to rate Philly , KC, Buffalo higher, I don’t have any big issues with that. They’re all capable of winning it all.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Well stated.
I acknowledged that the Eagles were clearly the better team that day.
The Ravens pass defense is nowhere near the worst. Hell, its better than Buffalo's, as well as Detroit's and LA's among teams still in the playoffs, and that's counting the stretch where they were starting Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams at Safety, neither of which play anymore. Since re-shuffling the DBs (moving Hamilton from slot CB to S, moving Humphrey from wide CB to slot CB, promoting Washington above Williams, and putting Wiggins in the starting lineup) only the Eagles and Texans have had better pass defenses.
ETA: As an Eagles fan I think you are especially aware of how big a switch (massive upgrade) in the secondary can be. Look at DeJean replacing Maddox in the slot from week 6 onward.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
The Ravens are the best team in the NFL when they're hitting on all cylinders. Their weakness is their inconsistency.
Scoresman
Footballguy
According to some stats that have been fairly good playoff success indicators
Point Differential: TIE. Both at 157, which in both cases is elite.
End of Season Win Streak: BAL. 4 game win streak vs 1 game loss for BUF.
Turnover Differential: BUF. Bal comes in at +6, BUF i +24!!!
Team QB Rating: BAL. 119 vs 100. Both good, but BAL is elite here too.
That didnt clear up anything.
Point Differential: TIE. Both at 157, which in both cases is elite.
End of Season Win Streak: BAL. 4 game win streak vs 1 game loss for BUF.
Turnover Differential: BUF. Bal comes in at +6, BUF i +24!!!
Team QB Rating: BAL. 119 vs 100. Both good, but BAL is elite here too.
That didnt clear up anything.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Updated forecast - all per Buffalo radio
8-10 degrees at kickoff and dropping
Lamar coldest game ever played 27
Henry coldest game ever played 22
8-10 degrees at kickoff and dropping
Lamar coldest game ever played 27
Henry coldest game ever played 22
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Where do people get these stats? LOL!
beermutts52
Footballguy
Lamar seems to be cold all the time. Everytime I see him on sidelines he has that big trench coat on and a wool hat. Don't think it will make a difference..LOL
Is Ray Davis in concussion protocol?
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Is Ray Davis in concussion protocol? - Yes, he was Limited today
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
That's gonna hurt. Baltimore has no one else like him. They do have options, however.
rockaction
Footballguy
We know. You keep picking against them and they keep winning. You’d figure at some point you’d stop dwelling on the negatives of their team and start concentrating on the fact that they win. A lot. And only lose to tough teams. I mean, you could shift the emphasis to, “maybe I was wrong about this final eight team that procured the second seed in the conference, but they’re still not as good as Baltimore” and it would be easier to believe or take the opinion seriously at this point.
Yeah, it’s baffling. The only team they lost to that wasn’t a playoff team was during Week 18 when they rested everybody. The lost to Houston, Baltimore, and the L.A. Rams in games they were competing for.
I don’t see how on earth travdogg holds his position, but he had Denver beating Buffalo last week, so maybe trav isn’t the guy to be getting your dope from in the end. More like Pulp Fiction than pure cut.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Should be a good game.
I think a very forgotten point (that hasn't been mentioned in here as far as I can tell) is that the Bills were missing the entire middle of the defense in the first meeting. Both starting LBs Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano (former All-Pro), and every-down nickel corner Taron Johnson (2023 2nd team All-Pro, and for my money the second best player on the entire team). All of them should be back and playing essentially every down on Sunday, unless Johnson gets occasionally subbed out for LB Dorian Williams in some 4-3 packages. The Bills backup LBs were inexperienced and got beaten badly by the Ravens the first time. That should not happen again - if it does, the Bills have no chance.
I think the Ravens are the slightly better team. But the Bills have soundly beaten both the Chiefs and the Lions this year, including the Lions game being on the road, so you know they're capable of beating teams when they're at their best. The weather in this game (8 degrees at kickoff with lower/negative wind chill) should be akin to the 2021 Wild Card game against the Patriots, which has gone down in Bills history as "Josh Allen's Perfect Game". You know he's capable of performing in this weather on a big stage.
Wouldn't surprise me if the Bills lose, since I think they're going to lose every game, but I would expect it to be close either way.
I think a very forgotten point (that hasn't been mentioned in here as far as I can tell) is that the Bills were missing the entire middle of the defense in the first meeting. Both starting LBs Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano (former All-Pro), and every-down nickel corner Taron Johnson (2023 2nd team All-Pro, and for my money the second best player on the entire team). All of them should be back and playing essentially every down on Sunday, unless Johnson gets occasionally subbed out for LB Dorian Williams in some 4-3 packages. The Bills backup LBs were inexperienced and got beaten badly by the Ravens the first time. That should not happen again - if it does, the Bills have no chance.
I think the Ravens are the slightly better team. But the Bills have soundly beaten both the Chiefs and the Lions this year, including the Lions game being on the road, so you know they're capable of beating teams when they're at their best. The weather in this game (8 degrees at kickoff with lower/negative wind chill) should be akin to the 2021 Wild Card game against the Patriots, which has gone down in Bills history as "Josh Allen's Perfect Game". You know he's capable of performing in this weather on a big stage.
Wouldn't surprise me if the Bills lose, since I think they're going to lose every game, but I would expect it to be close either way.
mjm3773
Footballguy
Some pro-Buffalo small sample-size recency bias:
The much-maligned Bills defense only allowed a total of 7 points and 372 total yards over the past 7 quarters the starters have played (Broncos game and first 3 quarters of the Jets game).
Yes, not offenses anywhere close to the Ravens, but it's a positive note now that everyone is finally healthy on defense.
The much-maligned Bills defense only allowed a total of 7 points and 372 total yards over the past 7 quarters the starters have played (Broncos game and first 3 quarters of the Jets game).
Yes, not offenses anywhere close to the Ravens, but it's a positive note now that everyone is finally healthy on defense.
rockaction
Footballguy
Think The Duff Man covered this in about the third post in. Von Miller, Bernard, Milano, Johnson, Rapp.
rockaction
Footballguy
Shhh . . .
I said Buffalo/Denver was a tossup last week. I picked Denver because, why not? I included it in the games that I wouldn't have wanted to bet on. It was closer than the score. It was 50-50 right up until Lutz doinked before halftime, then it seemed like the wind came out of Denver's sails. You could argue that was halftime adjustments as well, but I think the young team just never recovered.
I've been effusive in my praise of the Ravens all season. I don't think I'm saying Buffalo sucks, when I say that I don't think there is much they do better than Baltimore right now. The Bills OL and pass rush are slightly better I guess, though the advantage of Henry and a better secondary mostly negates those.
I think Buffalo has the best player in the NFL (though not the 2024 MVP) I think they have a top-10 OL, a top-5 running game, and league average weapons, its the defense that worries me. The pass rush is the only thing they do well and have liabilities in both run defense and coverage. Not every team can take advantage of that (obviously, they wouldn't have won 14 games if they could) but I'd be shocked if the Ravens couldn't.
That NE game scared me on Buffalo a lot. They only won on a fluky defensive score where there was a backwards pass into the endzone.
Its very possible Buffalo is a blind spot for me, I have been lower on them then their win/loss. Its not some vendetta or something, I think most Bills fans are probably pretty worried about the back 7. This Bills team has more issues than any of the teams since 2020. Now that also speaks to having been a consistent contender over that stretch, but I don't see it as some controversial opinion. The same way, I don't think Josh Allen is playing any better this season than he has any other season since 2020. He (and they in general) has just been luckier, unlike last season, where every 50-50 bounce seemed to go against them, believe me, I was arguing Allen for MVP last season, as his high INT count was overwhelmingly fluky plays. That regressed to the mean this year, despite Allen being the same guy.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Just typing “Bills” into the search engine and having it look for only the titles that include “Bills" whittles it down to the game threads. In those, you’ve picked the Jets, the Patriots the first time they played (not the resting one), and as far back as Nov. 9th you were saying “The Bills aren’t as good as their record” while picking the Colts against them in an “upset special,” which I think is the same terminology you had for the Jets and Pats.
You did pick them to beat the Chiefs when they played them.
But I know all this because I’ve been reading you all year and you’ve been saying the same thing since the end of October. I think (and maybe this is just me) that one would adjust their priors if they kept on being wrong about a club. It’s simple. Just go in with the mindset that you’ll get it wrong, and you’ll find the humility you’re showing probably closer to the truth than when you’re confident in your assessment.
Easy Peasy, trav. Nobody expects you to get even 5/8ths of your assessments right. Stop killing yourself at the altar of the “Bills not being as good as their record.” They’ve already proven that totally wrong. All year.
They’re 13-4 and in the final eight after beating the number one seed in each conference (and I think beating each on the road—or at least Detroit).
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Our cheerleaders are tough. Nothing to worry about there. You just won't see them standing still much - gotta keep moving to stay warm.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
The announcers are definitely affected, since they keep the windows open to bring in the crowd noise. They usually have some space heaters running in there but they don't help that much.
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