AFC Title Game Discussion: Colts/Pats (1 Viewer)

[Bolebuns]

Which NE RB goes nuts? Logic says Blount. But...

 

[ShamrockPride]

Which NE RB goes nuts? Logic says Blount. But...

I think it would be foolish to not let the guy who did it the first time around have first ups. But that's just my opinion.

 

[JIslander]

To have a chance, the Colts need to get on top and quick so Pats can't establish running game. Pats were tied for 3rd in league for most 20yd + pass plays given up (62).

 

[rockaction]

Only tangentially football-related.

Saw the Colts' celebration after the Broncos win. Pure awesomeness. Ric Flair bit. Hope to see it again next weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwYmcd8gZQU

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

think I prefer this one

for more than 1 reason

 

[rockaction]

think I prefer this one

for more than 1 reason

Yeah, that sweater. That's a sweater.

 

[pizzatyme]

While I think this one looks best on you...https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1014299918584159&set=p.1014299918584159&type=1&theater

 

[msudaisy26]

To have a chance, the Colts need to get on top and quick so Pats can't establish running game. Pats were tied for 3rd in league for most 20yd + pass plays given up (62).

If the Colts want the Pats to give up on the run early they will have to be up 3+ scores. The Colts aren't the Ravens either. The reason the Pats gave up in the run early against the Ravens is because it wasn't going to work, the score had very little to do with it.

 

[JIslander]

To have a chance, the Colts need to get on top and quick so Pats can't establish running game. Pats were tied for 3rd in league for most 20yd + pass plays given up (62).

If the Colts want the Pats to give up on the run early they will have to be up 3+ scores. The Colts aren't the Ravens either. The reason the Pats gave up in the run early against the Ravens is because it wasn't going to work, the score had very little to do with it.

yeah, I wasn't making a comparison to the Ravens game at all --but do agree they'd have to get up quick --by a lot

 

[msudaisy26]

To have a chance, the Colts need to get on top and quick so Pats can't establish running game. Pats were tied for 3rd in league for most 20yd + pass plays given up (62).

If the Colts want the Pats to give up on the run early they will have to be up 3+ scores. The Colts aren't the Ravens either. The reason the Pats gave up in the run early against the Ravens is because it wasn't going to work, the score had very little to do with it.

yeah, I wasn't making a comparison to the Ravens game at all --but do agree they'd have to get up quick --by a lot

I know you weren't, but I was taking the option of anyone replying with they abandon the run against the Ravens.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Colts must shut down the gronk, and rattle brady.

Doubt they do it, but i can't take the smart money and bet NE.

Taking the points and the underdog.

Colts over Pats. 30 to 21.

GO COLTS!!!!

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Is it Sunday yet?

 

[Anarchy99]

Which NE RB goes nuts? Logic says Blount. But...

I think it would be foolish to not let the guy who did it the first time around have first ups. But that's just my opinion.

Won't that be Blount, as he destroyed them last year?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

 

[Deamon]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

It'll go up.

 

[JIslander]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

It'll go up.

or down

 

[Doctor Detroit]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

It'll go up.

or down

Or stay the same.

 

[Deamon]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

It'll go up.

or down

Or stay the same.

Yes it could go down or stay the same, but I don't see it. I highly doubt a ton of people will be rushing to bet the colts +6.5. WIth lots of money going on The Pats, it should go up a bit by kickoff. Expecting 7.5 at kickoff.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

It'll go up.

or down

Or stay the same.

Yes it could go down or stay the same, but I don't see it. I highly doubt a ton of people will be rushing to bet the colts +6.5. WIth lots of money going on The Pats, it should go up a bit by kickoff. Expecting 7.5 at kickoff.

I expected 9 on Monday though.

 

[Deamon]

NE - 7 ... will likely move up to 9 by Monday.

Actually at 6.5 right now.

It'll go up.

or down

Or stay the same.

Yes it could go down or stay the same, but I don't see it. I highly doubt a ton of people will be rushing to bet the colts +6.5. WIth lots of money going on The Pats, it should go up a bit by kickoff. Expecting 7.5 at kickoff.

I expected 9 on Monday though.

yeah, guess that didn't happen.

 

[parrot]

Which NE RB goes nuts? Logic says Blount. But...

I think it would be foolish to not let the guy who did it the first time around have first ups. But that's just my opinion.

Won't that be Blount, as he destroyed them last year?

Gray destroyed them this year.

 

[jurb26]

Wow, this thread is weak compared to the NFC one.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Wow, this thread is weak compared to the NFC one.

That's cause this game will more likely be a blowout. Not much to discuss besides the line apparently lol.

 

[rockaction]

Wow, this thread is weak compared to the NFC one.

That's cause this game will more likely be a blowout. Not much to discuss besides the line apparently lol.

Those guys are using pumped-in noise and a laugh track. This thread is aces.

 

[pizzatyme]

The difference here is that there aren't that many Colts fans and we are realistic. While I love to banter with guys I'm also a realist. The odds are tough this weekend but not insurmountable. Luck gives us a chance. He is a different breed.

Go Colts!

 

[Freelove]

The difference here is that there aren't that many Colts fans and we are realistic. While I love to banter with guys I'm also a realist. The odds are tough this weekend but not insurmountable. Luck gives us a chance. He is a different breed.

Go Colts!

Yeah, out of the four teams left, if I'm rooting for anybody, I'm rooting for the Colts. But if I had to break it down, I'd give New England something like a 40% chance of winning it all, SEA and GB each something like 25-30% and Indy gets the pocket change leftover.

They're just a little too much one player reliant to win out in a year when this many complete teams advance to the conference finals.

I'm hoping Luck doesn't go his career without a really good supporting squad surrounding him, so we don't have to hear comparisons down the road where his resume looks bad because he didn't get the titles. But on his own, he's good enough to guarantee they never have a good draft pick. :(

Maybe he pulls off the miracle. It's something to root for. But it's an uphill battle against a NE team I think is probably the class of the league this year.

 

[rockaction]

The difference here is that there aren't that many Colts fans and we are realistic. While I love to banter with guys I'm also a realist. The odds are tough this weekend but not insurmountable. Luck gives us a chance. He is a different breed.

Go Colts!

Yeah, out of the four teams left, if I'm rooting for anybody, I'm rooting for the Colts. But if I had to break it down, I'd give New England something like a 40% chance of winning it all, SEA and GB each something like 25-30% and Indy gets the pocket change leftover.

They're just a little too much one player reliant to win out in a year when this many complete teams advance to the conference finals.

I'm hoping Luck doesn't go his career without a really good supporting squad surrounding him, so we don't have to hear comparisons down the road where his resume looks bad because he didn't get the titles. But on his own, he's good enough to guarantee they never have a good draft pick. :(

Maybe he pulls off the miracle. It's something to root for. But it's an uphill battle against a NE team I think is probably the class of the league this year.

Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings give NE around a 35% chance to win it all and Indianapolis around an 11% chance, so this isn't too far off from other analyses that I've seen.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Im thinking ne doesnt cover. Which is why i dont wager.

 

[pizzatyme]

This guy has a heart of gold! https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=847022272020922&set=p.847022272020922&type=1&theater

 

[Bad_Mo]

Only tangentially football-related.

Saw the Colts' celebration after the Broncos win. Pure awesomeness. Ric Flair bit. Hope to see it again next weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwYmcd8gZQU

Maybe Ric Flair can help them stop the run.

 

[Anarchy99]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 9-8 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season with losses to:

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

 

[JIslander]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

 

[Anarchy99]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

That will teach me to blindly listen to people on the radio. They did lose the games I listed, but they did win playoff rematch games.

Wins in the follow up game occurred in:

2001 STL

2003 TEN

2003 IND

2004 IND

2005 PIT

2006 NYJ

2007 SDC

2011 DEN

2012 HOU

So it looks like NE is 9-8 in playoff rematch games (the radio announcer only listed off the loses). My apologies.

 

[JIslander]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

That will teach me to blindly listen to people on the radio. They did lose the games I listed, but they did win playoff rematch games.

Wins in the follow up game occurred in:

2001 STL

2003 TEN

2003 IND

2004 IND

2005 PIT

2006 NYJ

2007 SDC

2011 DEN

2012 HOU

So it looks like NE is 9-8 in playoff rematch games (the radio announcer only listed off the loses). My apologies.

5-8 since 2005

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

That will teach me to blindly listen to people on the radio. They did lose the games I listed, but they did win playoff rematch games.

Wins in the follow up game occurred in:

2001 STL

2003 TEN

2003 IND

2004 IND

2005 PIT

2006 NYJ

2007 SDC

2011 DEN

2012 HOU

So it looks like NE is 9-8 in playoff rematch games (the radio announcer only listed off the loses). My apologies.

5-8 since 2005

what about since 2006?

 

[JIslander]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

That will teach me to blindly listen to people on the radio. They did lose the games I listed, but they did win playoff rematch games.

Wins in the follow up game occurred in:

2001 STL

2003 TEN

2003 IND

2004 IND

2005 PIT

2006 NYJ

2007 SDC

2011 DEN

2012 HOU

So it looks like NE is 9-8 in playoff rematch games (the radio announcer only listed off the loses). My apologies.

5-8 since 2005

what about since 2006?

who cares?

Perhaps its cleaner to say that every year since 2005 that the Pats were in the playoffs, they lost a playoff game to a team they played in the regular season. Meh, who cares about that too...

 

[bostonfred]

If you're imagining a colts win, how do you see it happening? I would say they pass well and get pressure on the stork less line. Maybe force turnovers. That's very possible.

If you're imagining a patriots win, how do you see it happening? I would say they could run the ball non stop like they have in the past, or they exploit their past history by passing against a defense geared up for the run, or they get some big special teams play, or they force luck into some turnovers.

There's lots of paths to victory for the patriots but not as many for the Colts. That means the Colts would need to execute extremely well to win this game. Possible, but I'll take the patriots in this one.

Now tell me how the Seahawks could beat me England. They could demolish the pats o line, or blanket their smurf receivers, and still stop the run. They could run the ball inside with lynch, or outside with lynch and Wilson like the Ravens did, or pass on them. It's all on the table. For the patriots to win... they probably need brady to execute flawlessly. I mean, maybe Blount runs it down their throats, but I doubt it. Maybe they force a bunch of turnovers, or bottle up lynch... but it seems much more likely that they need brady to have an elite game.

And that's why I have a hard time seeing the pats win a title this year. It's possible, but it would take near flawless execution.

 

[JIslander]

If you're imagining a colts win, how do you see it happening? I would say they pass well and get pressure on the stork less line. Maybe force turnovers. That's very possible.

If you're imagining a patriots win, how do you see it happening? I would say they could run the ball non stop like they have in the past, or they exploit their past history by passing against a defense geared up for the run, or they get some big special teams play, or they force luck into some turnovers.

There's lots of paths to victory for the patriots but not as many for the Colts. That means the Colts would need to execute extremely well to win this game. Possible, but I'll take the patriots in this one.

Now tell me how the Seahawks could beat me England. They could demolish the pats o line, or blanket their smurf receivers, and still stop the run. They could run the ball inside with lynch, or outside with lynch and Wilson like the Ravens did, or pass on them. It's all on the table. For the patriots to win... they probably need brady to execute flawlessly. I mean, maybe Blount runs it down their throats, but I doubt it. Maybe they force a bunch of turnovers, or bottle up lynch... but it seems much more likely that they need brady to have an elite game.

And that's why I have a hard time seeing the pats win a title this year. It's possible, but it would take near flawless execution.

I totally agree with this.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

That will teach me to blindly listen to people on the radio. They did lose the games I listed, but they did win playoff rematch games.

Wins in the follow up game occurred in:

2001 STL

2003 TEN

2003 IND

2004 IND

2005 PIT

2006 NYJ

2007 SDC

2011 DEN

2012 HOU

So it looks like NE is 9-8 in playoff rematch games (the radio announcer only listed off the loses). My apologies.

5-8 since 2005

what about since 2006?

who cares?

glad you caught the point

 

[devouredbychaos]

If you're imagining a colts win, how do you see it happening? I would say they pass well and get pressure on the stork less line. Maybe force turnovers. That's very possible.

If you're imagining a patriots win, how do you see it happening? I would say they could run the ball non stop like they have in the past, or they exploit their past history by passing against a defense geared up for the run, or they get some big special teams play, or they force luck into some turnovers.

There's lots of paths to victory for the patriots but not as many for the Colts. That means the Colts would need to execute extremely well to win this game. Possible, but I'll take the patriots in this one.

Now tell me how the Seahawks could beat me England. They could demolish the pats o line, or blanket their smurf receivers, and still stop the run. They could run the ball inside with lynch, or outside with lynch and Wilson like the Ravens did, or pass on them. It's all on the table. For the patriots to win... they probably need brady to execute flawlessly. I mean, maybe Blount runs it down their throats, but I doubt it. Maybe they force a bunch of turnovers, or bottle up lynch... but it seems much more likely that they need brady to have an elite game.

And that's why I have a hard time seeing the pats win a title this year. It's possible, but it would take near flawless execution.

Don't underestimate Belichick and Brady. If there's anyone that can come up with a gameplan to beat Seattle, it's Belichick.

 

[bostonfred]

Not underestimating them, and I'm obviously a fan. But I do think it would take an outstanding performance by brady to win that game. He already gave us one in the Ravens game, so that's very possible, and if he does it again it would hugely solidify his legacy. So in a way I'd love to see the matchup if they can get by the Colts.

But there's no gameplan trickery here. Seattle makes you line up with your best guys against their best guys and outplay them.

That takes out some of the belichick magic - he can pick his poison on defense and try to take out lynch or force Wilson off of his spots (I think he'd do the latter) but you can't confuse a run heavy offense. You just have to stop them. And you're not getting plus matchups on offense. You just need to throw accurately and consistently, or run into one of the tougher fronts in football. It would all be on bradys shoulders imo, which isn't as true against the Colts or if they play the Packers.

 

[JIslander]

In one of the most surprising stats out there, uber coaching genius Bill Belichick has a lifetime 0-9 record in the playoffs in rematch game (no matter what the original outcome was) when playing the same team in the playoffs as in the regular season.

Pre-Patriots (With CLE)

1994 PIT

Patriots

2005 DEN

2006 IND

2007 NYG

2009 BAL

2010 NYJ

2011 NYG

2012 BAL

2013 DEN

2014 IND ????

That's interesting. Were the regular season games mostly wins or losses? or even mix? Too lazy to look up --

That will teach me to blindly listen to people on the radio. They did lose the games I listed, but they did win playoff rematch games.

Wins in the follow up game occurred in:

2001 STL

2003 TEN

2003 IND

2004 IND

2005 PIT

2006 NYJ

2007 SDC

2011 DEN

2012 HOU

So it looks like NE is 9-8 in playoff rematch games (the radio announcer only listed off the loses). My apologies.

5-8 since 2005

what about since 2006?

who cares?

glad you caught the point

Yeah, I caught it. Over about the past 10 years, the Pats have not done well in the playoffs against teams they had already seen in the regular season. Keep looking past the Colts.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Yeah, I caught it. Over about the past 10 years, the Pats have not done well in the playoffs against teams they had already seen in the regular season. Keep looking past the Colts.

wut

 

[pizzatyme]

Fun Fact- Adam Vinatieri's teams are 5-0 in Conference Championship games.

 

[Tanner9919]

kills me to say it,but NE wins this by at least 31-10..completely unwatchable game.

 

[pizzatyme]

kills me to say it,but NE wins this by at least 31-10..completely unwatchable game.

I'm pretty confident that the Colts offense is better than the Ravens who just threw up a 35 burger on the Pats. Just sayin...

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

how much better would you say it is %wise?

 

[pizzatyme]

how much better would you say it is %wise?

Feel free to look it up. It's out there free of charge.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

maybe that's a good idea --- your numbers don't seem very reliable.

had balt scored 35 they'd still be playing that game right now..

balt got 31 off us, and indy scored........hang on I'm looking it up........20 against us.

that actually seems about 35% worse

confidence is good, though

 

[pizzatyme]

maybe that's a good idea --- your numbers don't seem very reliable.

had balt scored 35 they'd still be playing that game right now..

balt got 31 off us, and indy scored........hang on I'm looking it up........20 against us.

that actually seems about 35% worse

confidence is good, though

Ah, Mr. Small Sample Size. Got it.