Alfred Morris, why is he rated so low (2 Viewers)

[10tihwj]

Agree with Omally and really disagree with you. Helu never got the kudos that Morris got from Shanahan. I love how you can say he isn't the type of RB that Shanahan is looking for after Morris was the #2 rushing leader in the NFL, behind only Peterson and his historic 2000+ yards. If Shanahan read your post, he would be laughing. Sure, a 1613 yard, 13TD effort is not what an NFL head coach wants from his RB.

By the way, he wasn't a homerun hitter, but he was 5th out of 16 1000+ yard rushers in terms of YPC behind Spiller, Peterson, Lynch and Charles. Seems pretty good company. Also, while not a burner like Spiller/Charles/ADP, he was also tied for 5th in the NFL with 20+ yard runs.

Oh, by the way, he was the #7 RB in my normal PPR league. If Shanny really does get him more receptions in the preseason like he was just quoted, he should be ranked high because his floor is top 10 when healthy with a decent amount of receptions. I also think "he may never score 13 TDs again" is way off as well. Sure, maybe he won't 13+, but there were only 8 RBs to score 10+ TDs and along with Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson and maybe Martin, he is easily one the best bets at 10+ TDs again. Morris gets the goal line carries and with RG3's health worries, he isn't Cam Newtoning his RB at the goal line.

Neither side of this argument can benefit from what a coach says to the media about a player. From the Washington Post, 9/20/11, when Helu was a rookie like Morris:

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan believed that running back Roy Helu had something special, so Washington traded up to take him in the fourth round of this year’s draft. The Nebraska product looked good in the preseason, and on Sunday cranked out 112 all-purpose yards.

“When you’ve got a guy like Helu, you don’t know why guys make plays, but the great ones do,” Shanahan said. “I think Helu is giving people ideas that he can make plays. He’s got some speed, some running ability and it’ll be an ongoing evaluation of him. Can he pick up blitzes? Can he hold onto the football? But I was pleased with what he’s done through the preseason and our second regular season game, and hopefully he continues to grow.”

The thread asks about long-term concerns for Morris. I don't dispute his YPC numbers from 2012, but is that him or a product of the offense? Pierre Thomas (2011), Brandon Jacobs (2010), Tim Hightower (2010), Felix Jones (2009), Justin Forsett (2009), Correll Buckhalter (2009) and Shonn Greene (2009) all qualified as top-10 NFL YPC leaders in 2009-11 and none of them were in the top 10 in any year afterward. Some came on as gang-busters as rookies and fell off when their teams had other options available. They were replaced and in some cases, out of nowhere.There is a level of discomfort with Morris. He had a great rookie year in a read option offense in which the QB got more and more dinged as the season went on. Morris' volume increased as well. IIRC, RGIII got dinged in the Baltimore game and did not play against Cleveland. In Washington's last four games, Morris went 105-507-7. In his first 12 games, 230-1106-6. So, after RGIII got dinged, Morris put up 31% of his carries, 31% of his yards and 46% of his TDs in only 25% of his games. What that means is that Morris was on pace, prior to RGIII's injury for a 307-1475-8 season and he had nearly zero competition for snaps at that point. That pace puts him closer to Shonn Greene's season (276-1063-8) than I would like out of a top tier fantasy RB.

RGIII was far more of a factor in the rushing offense before he got hurt than after. In the team's first 12 games, RGIII's numbers were 115-714-6. In the last 4 (he missed one), it was 15-101-1. He does not have to equal his pre-injury production, but even if he is 2/3 the player he was, he is still pilfering 4 rush TDs as a QB.

The primary backup RBs for the season were Evan Royster (23 carries) and Darrel Young (14 carries). The odds that the backups increase their workload in 2013 and beyond are strong. Plus, the Redskins scored 22 rushing TDs and 24 passing TDs in 2012. Garcon missed a bunch of time and RGIII was a rookie. Fred Davis tore his achilles. If RGIII is half the QB prospect everyone thinks he is, the tendency is for the team to score MORE passing TDs than 2012. Unless the team significantly increases its 2012 TD output of 46 offensive TDs (5th in the NFL), those passing TDs are going to come at the expense of rushing TDs.

There is EVERY reason to question whether Morris scores 13 rushing TDs again in 2013. Might he? Of course, but predicting his output from year to year requires some look at the facts, and the facts are that unless RGIII scores less rushing TDs and/or the backups do not increase their carries above the 2.5 per game that they did in 2012, the odds are more likely than not that Morris' carry and TD outputs decrease.

 

[10tihwj]

If he wasn't the type of RB Shanahan was looking for, Shanahan wouldn't have drafted him. Shanahan is a big fan of getting players who fit his system late in the draft, sort of like how Pittsburgh used to snap up all the 'tweeners late in the draft in the late '90s to early '00s when they were one of the only teams running the 3-4 (Carlos Emmons in the 7th, Jason Gildon at the end of the 3rd, Joey Porter in the 3rd, James Farrior on the cheap after the Jets let him walk, Larry Foote in the 4th, Clark Haggins in the 5th, James Harrison as an UFA). Getting drafted late didn't mean that Pittsburgh didn't value them, it meant the demand for them wasn't as high because their skills didn't fit in nearly as well with the rest of the league. Similarly, Shanahan has always believed that he could take slow-but-decisive runners with good vision and turn them into relentless chain movers. The rest of the league didn't really value them because of the lack of speed or "wiggle", which means they were available cheap... but they fit splendidly with what Shanahan was hoping to accomplish with his running game, which was basically just moving the chains, leaving manageable conversions, and keeping the passing game ahead of schedule.Alfred Morris fits what Shanahan wants out of an RB to a T. Not a lot of home runs, just a steady stream of hope-killing, chain-moving singles and doubles, keeping his QB out of obvious passing situations (and therefore freeing up the QB to pick his spots to go yard without the defense teeing up on him). Edit: the fit is doubly appropriate, given that Griffin throws perhaps the most accurate deep ball in the NFL. If you give him a lot of 2nd and 5s or 3rd and 2s to play with, defenses are going to get burned, especially given how much respect they have to pay to his legs.

The fit is not what you say it is. Shanahan prefers RBs who can catch the football and who have more speed than Morris has. You are giving him way too much credit to think that he sat back and took Morris in the 6th because he was a "Shanahan" type of RB. He was the 4th RB that the Redskins have drafted in the Shanahan era. Looks to me like Shanahan is cycling through RBs until he finds them. Morris was likely drafted to be the short yardage back that they did not have on the roster already. To say that Shanahan drafted a guy in the 6th round with the goal of handing him 90% of the team's carries is unsupported by any evidence out there. Royster was named the starter for week 1 and he and Helu got hurt in the preseason. Morris did everything he could with that job but to say that he was drafted as a Shanahan RB has little support.

 

[SSOG]

If he wasn't the type of RB Shanahan was looking for, Shanahan wouldn't have drafted him. Shanahan is a big fan of getting players who fit his system late in the draft, sort of like how Pittsburgh used to snap up all the 'tweeners late in the draft in the late '90s to early '00s when they were one of the only teams running the 3-4 (Carlos Emmons in the 7th, Jason Gildon at the end of the 3rd, Joey Porter in the 3rd, James Farrior on the cheap after the Jets let him walk, Larry Foote in the 4th, Clark Haggins in the 5th, James Harrison as an UFA). Getting drafted late didn't mean that Pittsburgh didn't value them, it meant the demand for them wasn't as high because their skills didn't fit in nearly as well with the rest of the league. Similarly, Shanahan has always believed that he could take slow-but-decisive runners with good vision and turn them into relentless chain movers. The rest of the league didn't really value them because of the lack of speed or "wiggle", which means they were available cheap... but they fit splendidly with what Shanahan was hoping to accomplish with his running game, which was basically just moving the chains, leaving manageable conversions, and keeping the passing game ahead of schedule.

Alfred Morris fits what Shanahan wants out of an RB to a T. Not a lot of home runs, just a steady stream of hope-killing, chain-moving singles and doubles, keeping his QB out of obvious passing situations (and therefore freeing up the QB to pick his spots to go yard without the defense teeing up on him). Edit: the fit is doubly appropriate, given that Griffin throws perhaps the most accurate deep ball in the NFL. If you give him a lot of 2nd and 5s or 3rd and 2s to play with, defenses are going to get burned, especially given how much respect they have to pay to his legs.

The fit is not what you say it is. Shanahan prefers RBs who can catch the football and who have more speed than Morris has. You are giving him way too much credit to think that he sat back and took Morris in the 6th because he was a "Shanahan" type of RB. He was the 4th RB that the Redskins have drafted in the Shanahan era. Looks to me like Shanahan is cycling through RBs until he finds them. Morris was likely drafted to be the short yardage back that they did not have on the roster already. To say that Shanahan drafted a guy in the 6th round with the goal of handing him 90% of the team's carries is unsupported by any evidence out there. Royster was named the starter for week 1 and he and Helu got hurt in the preseason. Morris did everything he could with that job but to say that he was drafted as a Shanahan RB has little support.

I agree with the bolded 100%. Mike Shanahan is cycling through cheap RBs who he thinks can fit his scheme until he finds a good one. I'm just arguing that he's found a good one. As for preferring fast RBs... seven RBs have rushed for 1,000 yards under Mike Shanahan. Five of those seven RBs ran slower than 4.6 at the combine. The slowest back Shanahan ever coached based on combine times was Terrell Davis.

 

[10tihwj]

I agree with the bolded 100%. Mike Shanahan is cycling through cheap RBs who he thinks can fit his scheme until he finds a good one. I'm just arguing that he's found a good one. As for preferring fast RBs... seven RBs have rushed for 1,000 yards under Mike Shanahan. Five of those seven RBs ran slower than 4.6 at the combine. The slowest back Shanahan ever coached based on combine times was Terrell Davis.

I can buy that logic. I'm just pointing out that Shanahan does have a history of cycling through, seemingly finding one who performs and then discarding them for whatever reason later. He's cast off many a RB who has done a credible job for him because of one reason or another, and seemingly out of the blue sometimes. Morris isn't a bad back. I'm just arguing that he's not a top 10 back. It's debatable, but he could go either way. The point of the thread (and my responses) isn't to argue that Morris should be off one's fantasy radar. The point is whether his rating of 12-15 is justified.To that end, Peterson, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Martin, Richardson, Lynch, Charles and Forte should all be ahead of Morris without much debate (despite some trying on Forte, I think I remember someone claiming he was injury-prone, but he only has missed 5 games in 5 years and has been consistently a RB1). Where, then, does Morris fall amongst Spiller, CJ2K, Murray, McFadden, MJD? I put him below MJD for sure and it is questionable about the others. That says nothing about any of the rookies and their landing spots, or the Stephen Jackson potential gold mine in Atlanta, or Ahmad Bradshaw possibly going to Pittsburgh, or Sproles in a PPR league. Can Morris climb into the top 10? Yes, every year there are changes due to injuries and roles. That's not the point. I don't think a high RB2 rating on Morris is unreasonable.

 

[stbugs]

Agree with Omally and really disagree with you. Helu never got the kudos that Morris got from Shanahan. I love how you can say he isn't the type of RB that Shanahan is looking for after Morris was the #2 rushing leader in the NFL, behind only Peterson and his historic 2000+ yards. If Shanahan read your post, he would be laughing. Sure, a 1613 yard, 13TD effort is not what an NFL head coach wants from his RB.

By the way, he wasn't a homerun hitter, but he was 5th out of 16 1000+ yard rushers in terms of YPC behind Spiller, Peterson, Lynch and Charles. Seems pretty good company. Also, while not a burner like Spiller/Charles/ADP, he was also tied for 5th in the NFL with 20+ yard runs.

Oh, by the way, he was the #7 RB in my normal PPR league. If Shanny really does get him more receptions in the preseason like he was just quoted, he should be ranked high because his floor is top 10 when healthy with a decent amount of receptions. I also think "he may never score 13 TDs again" is way off as well. Sure, maybe he won't 13+, but there were only 8 RBs to score 10+ TDs and along with Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson and maybe Martin, he is easily one the best bets at 10+ TDs again. Morris gets the goal line carries and with RG3's health worries, he isn't Cam Newtoning his RB at the goal line.

Neither side of this argument can benefit from what a coach says to the media about a player. From the Washington Post, 9/20/11, when Helu was a rookie like Morris:

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan believed that running back Roy Helu had something special, so Washington traded up to take him in the fourth round of this years draft. The Nebraska product looked good in the preseason, and on Sunday cranked out 112 all-purpose yards.

When youve got a guy like Helu, you dont know why guys make plays, but the great ones do, Shanahan said. I think Helu is giving people ideas that he can make plays. Hes got some speed, some running ability and itll be an ongoing evaluation of him. Can he pick up blitzes? Can he hold onto the football? But I was pleased with what hes done through the preseason and our second regular season game, and hopefully he continues to grow.

The thread asks about long-term concerns for Morris. I don't dispute his YPC numbers from 2012, but is that him or a product of the offense? Pierre Thomas (2011), Brandon Jacobs (2010), Tim Hightower (2010), Felix Jones (2009), Justin Forsett (2009), Correll Buckhalter (2009) and Shonn Greene (2009) all qualified as top-10 NFL YPC leaders in 2009-11 and none of them were in the top 10 in any year afterward. Some came on as gang-busters as rookies and fell off when their teams had other options available. They were replaced and in some cases, out of nowhere.There is a level of discomfort with Morris. He had a great rookie year in a read option offense in which the QB got more and more dinged as the season went on. Morris' volume increased as well. IIRC, RGIII got dinged in the Baltimore game and did not play against Cleveland. In Washington's last four games, Morris went 105-507-7. In his first 12 games, 230-1106-6. So, after RGIII got dinged, Morris put up 31% of his carries, 31% of his yards and 46% of his TDs in only 25% of his games. What that means is that Morris was on pace, prior to RGIII's injury for a 307-1475-8 season and he had nearly zero competition for snaps at that point. That pace puts him closer to Shonn Greene's season (276-1063-8) than I would like out of a top tier fantasy RB.

RGIII was far more of a factor in the rushing offense before he got hurt than after. In the team's first 12 games, RGIII's numbers were 115-714-6. In the last 4 (he missed one), it was 15-101-1. He does not have to equal his pre-injury production, but even if he is 2/3 the player he was, he is still pilfering 4 rush TDs as a QB.

The primary backup RBs for the season were Evan Royster (23 carries) and Darrel Young (14 carries). The odds that the backups increase their workload in 2013 and beyond are strong. Plus, the Redskins scored 22 rushing TDs and 24 passing TDs in 2012. Garcon missed a bunch of time and RGIII was a rookie. Fred Davis tore his achilles. If RGIII is half the QB prospect everyone thinks he is, the tendency is for the team to score MORE passing TDs than 2012. Unless the team significantly increases its 2012 TD output of 46 offensive TDs (5th in the NFL), those passing TDs are going to come at the expense of rushing TDs.

There is EVERY reason to question whether Morris scores 13 rushing TDs again in 2013. Might he? Of course, but predicting his output from year to year requires some look at the facts, and the facts are that unless RGIII scores less rushing TDs and/or the backups do not increase their carries above the 2.5 per game that they did in 2012, the odds are more likely than not that Morris' carry and TD outputs decrease.

Wow, you really are digging on this one. First, you say that he was "only" on pace for 1475 yards and 8 TDs? Man, that really does suck. Then you are trying to compare Shon Greene's great YPC in 2009, which was on 108 carries? C'mon, I said that Morris was 5th in YPC out of all 1000 yard rushers, i.e. guys who got the ball in all scenarios, i.e. short yardage and regular rushing downs, not spot 3rd down draws. You are comparing him to guys who had 108, 110, 153, 116, 120 and 114 carries. Only Brandon Jacobs is close with 219 carries and for the grief he got, he actually wasn't that bad a RB, just took a pounding, but averaged 4.5ypc over his career.So, since Felix Jones averaged 5.9 ypc in 2009 and ADP averaged 6.0 in 2012, they had comparable seasons, right? If Michael Vick averaged over 7ypc for his career, he probably would have averaged that if he just got 300+ carries each season, right? Comparing Shon Greene's 2012 to Morris' 2012. Greene averaged 3.9 ypc, the only thing remotely comparable is the 8TDs, which is actually closer to 6.5 or half of Morris' 13 than it is to 13, so I guess it really isn't comparable either.

On the Helu quotes, is that really the best you can do? One was the opinion of the writer because the Redskins traded up with a 5th rounder to get him when they had 2 5th round picks. The second by Shanny says that it'll be an ongoing evaluation with him after a good game? After his injury woes, pretty sure the evaulation hasn't gone that well recently. Everyone in Washington has been praising Morris. Again, as I posted before, when RG3 was dinged in a go to the playoffs or stay home week 17 game against Dallas, Shanny road Morris to the victory. Actions speak louder than words and if you didn't watch that game, you might not get the level of confidence they have in Morris.

One last note, Royster wasn't going to be the starter. That was Shanny trying to be elusive. I got Morris in 2 of 3 leagues and waited too long in the 3rd. I am sorry that you missed out on him, but he got the bulk of pre-season game 3 and was held out of pre-season game 4 and FBG's was on it and many smart folks predicted Morris would be the starter. Even we didn't know how good he could be. RG3 is going to continue to play with Morris, which is good for Morris and I am pretty sure that Washington is going to work on him being more careful, which from what Shanny said could mean more receptions for Morris.

The only thing I agree with is that Morris may not get 13TDs, but that is a great number. I do think that for 2013, he is easily one of the top 5 RBs in terms of forecasted 2013 rushing TDs. So, yes, he may not get to 13 TDs, but if he is healthy, I would think he is a lock for 8+ TDs and that is a nice floor.

 

[KellysHeroes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXx9Q4a8iJE

 

[stbugs]

I agree with the bolded 100%. Mike Shanahan is cycling through cheap RBs who he thinks can fit his scheme until he finds a good one. I'm just arguing that he's found a good one. As for preferring fast RBs... seven RBs have rushed for 1,000 yards under Mike Shanahan. Five of those seven RBs ran slower than 4.6 at the combine. The slowest back Shanahan ever coached based on combine times was Terrell Davis.

I can buy that logic. I'm just pointing out that Shanahan does have a history of cycling through, seemingly finding one who performs and then discarding them for whatever reason later. He's cast off many a RB who has done a credible job for him because of one reason or another, and seemingly out of the blue sometimes. Morris isn't a bad back. I'm just arguing that he's not a top 10 back. It's debatable, but he could go either way. The point of the thread (and my responses) isn't to argue that Morris should be off one's fantasy radar. The point is whether his rating of 12-15 is justified.To that end, Peterson, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Martin, Richardson, Lynch, Charles and Forte should all be ahead of Morris without much debate (despite some trying on Forte, I think I remember someone claiming he was injury-prone, but he only has missed 5 games in 5 years and has been consistently a RB1). Where, then, does Morris fall amongst Spiller, CJ2K, Murray, McFadden, MJD? I put him below MJD for sure and it is questionable about the others. That says nothing about any of the rookies and their landing spots, or the Stephen Jackson potential gold mine in Atlanta, or Ahmad Bradshaw possibly going to Pittsburgh, or Sproles in a PPR league. Can Morris climb into the top 10? Yes, every year there are changes due to injuries and roles. That's not the point. I don't think a high RB2 rating on Morris is unreasonable.

I don't get the bolded. When Shanny found a guy like Davis, Portis, Anderson (see SSOG's posts about his injuries) and now Morris, he has ridden them. Shanny has also had a lot of injuries and as with the Royster starting week 1, tries to be elusive when he can. I think that FFers have gotten frustrated at not knowing who might play due to other RB injuries and labelled Shanny as discarding RBs he likes, which isn't close to true. For his true bell cows, injuries have been the only thing to derail him. You even said above how few carries Morris' backups got last year. Shanny decided on Morris in the pre-season and never, ever showed any change in that perception.As to your rankings (I am in all PPR leagues, so I will rank them on that), I would say Peterson, Rice, Lynch, Martin, Foster and Charles should be ahead of Morris without question. I love Charles even though Morris finished better even in PPR. The only guy in the rest of your list I would take over Morris is Spiller. I think McCoy will go way higher and even without Bryce Brown stealing carries, McCoy was really not having a great year. Forte is a tough one, I think his 2008 year is still what people think about, but man, he lives on receptions. He has 10 total TDs in the last two years. That means to make up the TD spread from 5TDs to 13TDs, he has to have 48 more receptions. Definitely doable and I like him, but almost more on par with Morris even though in 2012, Morris averaged almost 3ppg better in PPR (5ppg in non-PPR). MJD, CJnomore2K, McFadden and Murray are all guys I wouldn't take before Morris. I think Morris will be a good value, because he still doesn't have the name recognition and will most likely get drafted way later.

Funny you say Richardson without question. If you saw 267-950-11 plus 51-367-1 receiving versus 335-1613-13 plus 11-77-0 receiving, I wouldn't immediately say the first guy was way better. In fact, I might think the guy with 663 more rushing yards had a better season. In non-PPR, Morris blew away Richarson, in PPR they finished tied. I like Richardson, but I think he will get drafted a lot higher than Morris just because of where they were drafted, not actual performance. I think both are pretty solid in terms of floors.

 

[10tihwj]

Wow, you really are digging on this one. First, you say that he was "only" on pace for 1475 yards and 8 TDs? Man, that really does suck. Then you are trying to compare Shon Greene's great YPC in 2009, which was on 108 carries? C'mon, I said that Morris was 5th in YPC out of all 1000 yard rushers, i.e. guys who got the ball in all scenarios, i.e. short yardage and regular rushing downs, not spot 3rd down draws. You are comparing him to guys who had 108, 110, 153, 116, 120 and 114 carries. Only Brandon Jacobs is close with 219 carries and for the grief he got, he actually wasn't that bad a RB, just took a pounding, but averaged 4.5ypc over his career.

So, since Felix Jones averaged 5.9 ypc in 2009 and ADP averaged 6.0 in 2012, they had comparable seasons, right? If Michael Vick averaged over 7ypc for his career, he probably would have averaged that if he just got 300+ carries each season, right? Comparing Shon Greene's 2012 to Morris' 2012. Greene averaged 3.9 ypc, the only thing remotely comparable is the 8TDs, which is actually closer to 6.5 or half of Morris' 13 than it is to 13, so I guess it really isn't comparable either.

On the Helu quotes, is that really the best you can do? One was the opinion of the writer because the Redskins traded up with a 5th rounder to get him when they had 2 5th round picks. The second by Shanny says that it'll be an ongoing evaluation with him after a good game? After his injury woes, pretty sure the evaulation hasn't gone that well recently. Everyone in Washington has been praising Morris. Again, as I posted before, when RG3 was dinged in a go to the playoffs or stay home week 17 game against Dallas, Shanny road Morris to the victory. Actions speak louder than words and if you didn't watch that game, you might not get the level of confidence they have in Morris.

One last note, Royster wasn't going to be the starter. That was Shanny trying to be elusive. I got Morris in 2 of 3 leagues and waited too long in the 3rd. I am sorry that you missed out on him, but he got the bulk of pre-season game 3 and was held out of pre-season game 4 and FBG's was on it and many smart folks predicted Morris would be the starter. Even we didn't know how good he could be. RG3 is going to continue to play with Morris, which is good for Morris and I am pretty sure that Washington is going to work on him being more careful, which from what Shanny said could mean more receptions for Morris.

The only thing I agree with is that Morris may not get 13TDs, but that is a great number. I do think that for 2013, he is easily one of the top 5 RBs in terms of forecasted 2013 rushing TDs. So, yes, he may not get to 13 TDs, but if he is healthy, I would think he is a lock for 8+ TDs and that is a nice floor.

No, I'm not digging. I'm just backing up what I said. I have no interest in simply railing on Alfred Morris but merely pointing out why his ranking is justified. I'm not saying he would have "sucked" at 8 TDs and 1475 yards, but with no receiving stats at all, he needs those TDs to be a top-flight fantasy RB. I only compared Greene's 2012 to Morris' 2012 for purposes of fantasy points because Greene is another guy with no receiving stats who relies on TDs and bulk carries to score. Take Morris down to 8 TDs and he's basically Shonn Greene fantasy-wise. Not quite a RB1 but close.On Helu, I went out and looked and found one article, which was more evidence than your bald statement of "he never got praised like Morris did". I am at work and I stopped looking after I found what I was looking for, there was no point in beating that dead horse. I saw quite a few Redskins games last year, including the playoff game. I did point out that they rode Morris hard in the last quarter of the season, and it made my point for me: Morris' season numbers were skewed by an abnormally high percentage of touches. Shanahan had no other options. RGIII couldn't run and the other RBs weren't healthy.

If you read my initial post, I did not miss out on Morris. I grabbed him in every league that I could, particularly my deeper leagues. That doesn't mean that I am banking on that production again next year.

I agree that Morris has a high floor as the starting RB in Washington. All I am saying is that his ceiling is lower than his 2012 output for a number of reasons:

[*]RGIII may not be as hurt as he was last year.

[*]Morris will not be the only healthy RB on the team.

[*]It will be hard to score 13+ TDs again.

[*]A healthier Helu or some other option will likely take Morris off the field on 3rd downs.

[*]He's not likely to get 90% of the RB carries next year.

[*]The Redskins are likely to score more of their TDs via pass.

 

[10tihwj]

I don't get the bolded. When Shanny found a guy like Davis, Portis, Anderson (see SSOG's posts about his injuries) and now Morris, he has ridden them. Shanny has also had a lot of injuries and as with the Royster starting week 1, tries to be elusive when he can. I think that FFers have gotten frustrated at not knowing who might play due to other RB injuries and labelled Shanny as discarding RBs he likes, which isn't close to true. For his true bell cows, injuries have been the only thing to derail him. You even said above how few carries Morris' backups got last year. Shanny decided on Morris in the pre-season and never, ever showed any change in that perception.As to your rankings (I am in all PPR leagues, so I will rank them on that), I would say Peterson, Rice, Lynch, Martin, Foster and Charles should be ahead of Morris without question. I love Charles even though Morris finished better even in PPR. The only guy in the rest of your list I would take over Morris is Spiller. I think McCoy will go way higher and even without Bryce Brown stealing carries, McCoy was really not having a great year. Forte is a tough one, I think his 2008 year is still what people think about, but man, he lives on receptions. He has 10 total TDs in the last two years. That means to make up the TD spread from 5TDs to 13TDs, he has to have 48 more receptions. Definitely doable and I like him, but almost more on par with Morris even though in 2012, Morris averaged almost 3ppg better in PPR (5ppg in non-PPR). MJD, CJnomore2K, McFadden and Murray are all guys I wouldn't take before Morris. I think Morris will be a good value, because he still doesn't have the name recognition and will most likely get drafted way later.Funny you say Richardson without question. If you saw 267-950-11 plus 51-367-1 receiving versus 335-1613-13 plus 11-77-0 receiving, I wouldn't immediately say the first guy was way better. In fact, I might think the guy with 663 more rushing yards had a better season. In non-PPR, Morris blew away Richarson, in PPR they finished tied. I like Richardson, but I think he will get drafted a lot higher than Morris just because of where they were drafted, not actual performance. I think both are pretty solid in terms of floors.

Shanahan does have a history of riding these RBs... until he doesn't. He traded Portis (healthy) for Champ Bailey and replaced him with Reuben Droughns. He let Reuben Droughns go (healthy-UFA deal with Cleveland-26 yrs old) after and replaced him with Mike Anderson. He let Mike Anderson go (healthy-cut for salary cap reasons) and replaced him with Tatum Bell and Mike Bell... If you can guess when Shanahan is going to change his mind, you're better at that than I. As for the rankings, even you have 6-8 guys definitely ahead of Morris. It's not like you are saying he's a top 3 RB and I am saying he's a low RB2. Richardson is going to get drafted over Morris and will probably out-perform Morris next year. The two guys were basically equals in PPR last year even when one was healthy and the other missed the entire offseason and then played on cracked ribs. Far more foreseeable that Trent puts up far better rushing numbers than he did last year vs. Morris going from 11-77-0 in receiving to something higher than that.

 

[stbugs]

Wow, you really are digging on this one. First, you say that he was "only" on pace for 1475 yards and 8 TDs? Man, that really does suck. Then you are trying to compare Shon Greene's great YPC in 2009, which was on 108 carries? C'mon, I said that Morris was 5th in YPC out of all 1000 yard rushers, i.e. guys who got the ball in all scenarios, i.e. short yardage and regular rushing downs, not spot 3rd down draws. You are comparing him to guys who had 108, 110, 153, 116, 120 and 114 carries. Only Brandon Jacobs is close with 219 carries and for the grief he got, he actually wasn't that bad a RB, just took a pounding, but averaged 4.5ypc over his career.

So, since Felix Jones averaged 5.9 ypc in 2009 and ADP averaged 6.0 in 2012, they had comparable seasons, right? If Michael Vick averaged over 7ypc for his career, he probably would have averaged that if he just got 300+ carries each season, right? Comparing Shon Greene's 2012 to Morris' 2012. Greene averaged 3.9 ypc, the only thing remotely comparable is the 8TDs, which is actually closer to 6.5 or half of Morris' 13 than it is to 13, so I guess it really isn't comparable either.

On the Helu quotes, is that really the best you can do? One was the opinion of the writer because the Redskins traded up with a 5th rounder to get him when they had 2 5th round picks. The second by Shanny says that it'll be an ongoing evaluation with him after a good game? After his injury woes, pretty sure the evaulation hasn't gone that well recently. Everyone in Washington has been praising Morris. Again, as I posted before, when RG3 was dinged in a go to the playoffs or stay home week 17 game against Dallas, Shanny road Morris to the victory. Actions speak louder than words and if you didn't watch that game, you might not get the level of confidence they have in Morris.

One last note, Royster wasn't going to be the starter. That was Shanny trying to be elusive. I got Morris in 2 of 3 leagues and waited too long in the 3rd. I am sorry that you missed out on him, but he got the bulk of pre-season game 3 and was held out of pre-season game 4 and FBG's was on it and many smart folks predicted Morris would be the starter. Even we didn't know how good he could be. RG3 is going to continue to play with Morris, which is good for Morris and I am pretty sure that Washington is going to work on him being more careful, which from what Shanny said could mean more receptions for Morris.

The only thing I agree with is that Morris may not get 13TDs, but that is a great number. I do think that for 2013, he is easily one of the top 5 RBs in terms of forecasted 2013 rushing TDs. So, yes, he may not get to 13 TDs, but if he is healthy, I would think he is a lock for 8+ TDs and that is a nice floor.

No, I'm not digging. I'm just backing up what I said. I have no interest in simply railing on Alfred Morris but merely pointing out why his ranking is justified. I'm not saying he would have "sucked" at 8 TDs and 1475 yards, but with no receiving stats at all, he needs those TDs to be a top-flight fantasy RB. I only compared Greene's 2012 to Morris' 2012 for purposes of fantasy points because Greene is another guy with no receiving stats who relies on TDs and bulk carries to score. Take Morris down to 8 TDs and he's basically Shonn Greene fantasy-wise. Not quite a RB1 but close.On Helu, I went out and looked and found one article, which was more evidence than your bald statement of "he never got praised like Morris did". I am at work and I stopped looking after I found what I was looking for, there was no point in beating that dead horse. I saw quite a few Redskins games last year, including the playoff game. I did point out that they rode Morris hard in the last quarter of the season, and it made my point for me: Morris' season numbers were skewed by an abnormally high percentage of touches. Shanahan had no other options. RGIII couldn't run and the other RBs weren't healthy.

If you read my initial post, I did not miss out on Morris. I grabbed him in every league that I could, particularly my deeper leagues. That doesn't mean that I am banking on that production again next year.

I agree that Morris has a high floor as the starting RB in Washington. All I am saying is that his ceiling is lower than his 2012 output for a number of reasons:

[*]RGIII may not be as hurt as he was last year.

[*]Morris will not be the only healthy RB on the team.

[*]It will be hard to score 13+ TDs again.

[*]A healthier Helu or some other option will likely take Morris off the field on 3rd downs.

[*]He's not likely to get 90% of the RB carries next year.

[*]The Redskins are likely to score more of their TDs via pass.

Not worth arguing anymore because we just disagree on some points. Just remember that SSOG and I have disputed your main point that Morris was not a Shanny RB and that Helu was more what Shanny would want. You then tried to downplay Morris, which is weird since you grabbed him everywhere you could, even though you thought Royster was the starting RB week 1.Morris in PPR was the #7 RB. Even with only 8TDs, which I see as Morris' floor for TDs, he was in between Gore and Forte, #10 and #11, so still an RB1 even though you take away one of his best assets, i.e. like taking away Sproles receptions. I think he will be drafted as a RB2 and that is why Morris has value.

If you think he won't improve receptions (which I think he potential like Richardson has potential to improve yardage), then Helu (who might not make the team) or Royster taking 3rd downs won't change anything. He might not get 90%, but if healthy, around 300 carries is pretty good bet. The Redskins may score more passing TDs or they may have more drives kept alive increasing TD opportunities. Also, I don't think RG3 will run as much. Did you notice that RG3 scored 6 of his 7 rushing TDs in the first six weeks and only 1 more the rest of the season when all the "he needs to learn how to not take a hit" comments came out? They need RG3 healthy, and I don't think he will be scoring as many TDs. He isn't Cam, who is big enough to take some hits.

 

[JustinHawkins]

If RG3 does come back, and that team continues to improve (no denying a huge improvement last year) then I'm not sure its fair to say 13 TDs again is unlikely. As the offense and defense gets better, seems that should lead to more scoring opportunities. Shanny rides his RBs when he has one he trusts and believes in. He loves Morris. I'd say he's for real.

 

[SSOG]

Shanahan does have a history of riding these RBs... until he doesn't. He traded Portis (healthy) for Champ Bailey and replaced him with Reuben Droughns. He let Reuben Droughns go (healthy-UFA deal with Cleveland-26 yrs old) after and replaced him with Mike Anderson. He let Mike Anderson go (healthy-cut for salary cap reasons) and replaced him with Tatum Bell and Mike Bell... If you can guess when Shanahan is going to change his mind, you're better at that than I.

I think there are a lot of misconceptions about how Shanahan's RB situation played out in Denver, so I'd like to post a brief history. Part 1- The Terrell Davis Years1995- Denver's RB situation was unsettled, and some 6th round nobody named Terrell Davis came on like gangbusters in the preseason and took the job. 1996- Terrell Davis1997- Terrell Davis1998- Terrell Davis1999- Terrell Davis. When he got hurt, Denver went to his backup (Olandis Gary)2000- Terrell Davis. When he got hurt, Denver went to his backup (Mike Anderson, who had replaced Gary because Gary wasn't any good)2001- Terrell Davis. When he got hurt, Denver went to his backup (Mike Anderson, still)Pretty straightforward so far. Now, after 2001, Davis retired and Denver drafted Portis in the 2nd. I don't think Denver was looking for an RB, but Shanahan had Portis rated extremely high and didn't think he'd fall all the way to their 2nd round pick, so he couldn't pass when he did. With Portis in the fold, Shanahan moved Anderson to FB so he could continue to get on the field. 2002- Olandis Gary opened the season atop the depth chart, but gave way to Portis after 2 games.2003- Portis. When he got hurt, Denver went with a combo of Quentin Griffin and Anderson (who was still a FB, playing 10-20 pounds heavier than his ideal RB weight). After 2003, Portis started making it clear that he was upset with his contract and looking to become the highest paid RB in the league. Rather than committing that kind of cash to him, Shanahan traded him for a HoF CB and a 2nd rounder, drafting Tatum Bell. I think the original plan was to make Tatum a featured back, but once he got in town, it became clear that he couldn't hold up to a full workload, and Shanahan would ensure he remained in a CoP role from that point forward. Because of that, Shanahan also transitioned Anderson back into FB shape. 2004- was supposed to be Anderson, but he got injured in preseason. Instead, it was Quentin Griffin, who was TERRIBLE, had a game-losing fumble, and got hurt, so Denver turned to their 4th string RB (remember, Tatum Bell is strictly a CoP guy), who was Reuben Droughns (their FB). After 2004, Denver didn't feel like paying big money to Reuben Droughns, who was their 4th string RB, so they let him walk. Instead, they went back to their plan A from 2004. 2005- Mike Anderson, with Tatum Bell in a CoP role. After 2005, Mike Anderson was 33 years old (ancient in RB terms) and Denver felt like he was done (note: they were right), so they let him walk. Again, though, Tatum was just a CoP back, so Denver had to bring in another complementary back2006- Mike Bell and Tatum Bell in a platoonMike Bell was just a seat warmer (evidenced by the fact that he couldn't get more run than Tatum), and Tatum was just a CoP guy, so Denver let them both walk. Instead, Shanahan decided to try free agency and brought in Travis Henry. 2007- Travis Henry, and when he got hurt, Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and a little bit of Cecil Sapp. Travis Henry had failed drug tests and started missing workouts, basically just being a headcase, so Denver cut him, which led to the biggest injury cluster-you-know-what I've ever seen. The 2008 Denver Broncos suffered so many injuries that they ended their season using their SEVENTH STRING RB (old friend Tatum Bell, who was selling cell phones from a kiosk in a local mall in October, and leading the Broncos in rushing in November. True story). So, that looks like a massive mess, like Shanahan was unpredictable or impulsive, but there was a very clear and simple logic underlying all of his moves. If Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis was healthy, they were the starter. If they were not healthy (or around), Mike Anderson was the guy. If Mike Anderson wasn't around, either, Denver was forced to rely on any one of a number of stopgaps, bandages, or temporary fill-ins (including, but not limited to, Olandis Gary, Quentin Griffin, Reuben Droughns, Mike Bell, Selvin Young, etc). All of those fill-ins were totally exchangeable and expendable, and Denver churned through them pretty regularly because they were just warm bodies. Through all of this, if Tatum Bell was healthy, he'd get about 10 carries a game as a CoP back. After churning through a lot of warm bodies without success, Shanahan tried turning to free agency with Travis Henry, but he was a malingerer and a malcontent and Shanny cut him after a single (injury-marred) season because he stopped showing up to team activities. When an RB was let go, it was usually over money (Portis, Anderson, Droughns, Tatum, Henry)- Shanahan just didn't believe in committing huge resources to RB when he already had the highest-paid line in the league for much of that time (with Davis being the only exception). The only reason it looks like Shanny was playing games is because he churned his backup RB position a lot (because most of them sucked), and because he suffered an absurdly high number of injuries to his starters.What does this mean for Alfred Morris? Well, I've already said that he's no Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis, but I think Anderson is a favorable comp. as you saw, outside of a Davis/Portis type, nobody could send Anderson to the bench (hell, even with Portis, Shanahan moved Anderson to FB to get him more playing time). So the biggest risk to Alfred Morris's playing time would be if Washington acquired a Davis or Portis. Given Washington's lack of cap space (because of league penalties) and draft picks (because of the RGIII trade), I don't see any uber talented RBs riding though those doors any time soon (not that this draft class even has any), which makes Morris's job pretty safe. I could see Shanahan moving on from him if he was making exorbitant salary demands, but his contract literally cannot possibly be renegotiated for at least two more seasons, so there's no risk of that, either. Alfred Morris is not the greatest RB to ever play for Mike Shanahan, but he's plenty good enough for his job to be very secure for the foreseeable future.

 

[10tihwj]

SSOG - I appreciate the more detailed narrative on Shanahan. I still think he devalues a starter at RB as a long-term solution, and his situation is more fluid because of his perceived ability to pull guys out of the woodwork, but I can buy the logic on what you are saying.

I think where that leaves the topic is Morris' place in the rankings for the upcoming season (and not from a dynasty perspective). Absent injuries to others, I think his absolute ceiling is still pretty much in the 7-10 area, but I think the case has been made that 335 carries and 13 TDs is an unreasonable set of expectations. Without a significant bump in receiving statistics, any reduction in volume or rushing TDs puts Morris at the fringe of a RB1/RB2 guy.

Like I said earlier, Morris got 90% of the Redskins' RB carries in 2012. The other top-10 workhorses for 2012 look something like this:

351 - Arian Foster - 73%

348 - Adrian Peterson - 87%

319 - Doug Martin - 86%

315 - Marshawn Lynch - 73%

290 - Stevan Ridley - 60%

285 - Jamaal Charles - 63%

278 - Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis - 77%

276 - Shonn Greene - 66%

276 - Chris Johnson - 88%

Morris was the only top-10 back in carries to eclipse 90% in RB carries in 2012 and only Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Chris Johnson were within 12 percentage points of him. What are the chances he does that again? At last year's volume, Morris loses about 19-20 carries for each 5 percent drop in his share of the RB market in Washington.(A drop to 85% of the RB carries costs him about 19 carries, 80% costs him 38 carries, etc)

Also, Washington was 3rd in the league in rushing attempts last year and 30th in passing attempts. The split was 515 rushes, 442 passes. Will they do that again? It doesn't take a genius to run the possibilities. A 50/50 split combined with Morris only getting 80% of the carries, with every other split and stat staying equal, drops him to 278 carries, a 17% drop in workload. 278-1339-11 would be good enough to keep him in the top 10.

Someone got upset what I posted that a return to pre-RGIII pace would have put Morris at 307-1475-8 for 2012. Normalizing his 2012 workload and then figuring a likely drop in workload of around 17% in 2013 and you're staring a season of 255-1224-7 in the face. Still really want that guy on my team, but that isn't a top 10 RB.

Some will say I'm making too many guesses and engaging in too many "what-if" scenarios. Maybe I am, but I play in a lot of PPR/IDP dynasty leagues and figuring out the value of my RBs is a major priority. Sometimes you trade them too early, sometimes you don't, but I always try to avoid being the guy holding them when their value decreases.

 

[bonesman]

Relevant news blurb/quotes on/from Morris yesterday:

Published Thu Mar 28 9:22:12 p.m. PT 2013

(TheHuddle)Washington Redskins RB Alfred Morris said he does not expect to deal with a sophomore slump next season because he is working out hard this offseason to improve his all areas in his game. 'I set the bar very high, I love a challenge. If you give me easy, I don't want easy, I want hard, I don't care. A sophomore slump? I don't see it happening. I'm going to bust my butt this offseason. I've got to get better. I can't be satisfied with a year when, as a lot of people say, you're only as good as your last performance. I love what I do and I have fun doing it and I want to do it as long as possible and being complacent won't help me. It's time to set the bar even higher next year,' Morris said. Morris has been working on improving his strength and flexibility.

Analysis: Morris, a sixth-round pick, was nothing short of a revelation last season, finishing second in the league with 1,613 yards and ranking fifth among all fantasy backs with 247 points (Huddle Performance scoring). Having a healthy RGIII back will be a key for Morris, keeping defenses from keying in on Morris.

 

[10tihwj]

On the Helu quotes, is that really the best you can do?

How's this?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/redskins-watch/2013/jun/6/redskins-injury-updates-66-rb-roy-helu-jr-returns-/#ixzz2VSlk9rWA

“It’s fun to have him out there,” Shanahan said. “Hopefully he keeps on getting better and better. In the meantime, we have a guy that weighs 225 pounds [the Redskins list Helu at 215]. He’s under that 4.5 40, has the receiving skills and the opportunity to make the big play. So it’s good to have him back and a chance to compete.”

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Helu is not a threat to Morris unless you dreamed Morris was going to start catching 60 balls a year. He is a threat to Chris Thompson, if they can both stay healthy.

 

[LawFitz]

Helu is not a threat to Morris unless you dreamed Morris was going to start catching 60 balls a year. He is a threat to Chris Thompson, if they can both stay healthy.

Helu could be a threat if he could stay healthy. He's a better all around talent, but with no where near Morris' durability and physicality. That said, if Helu stays healthy and takes all the receptions, there goes Morris' upside and relegates him to low-end RB1 (or top shelf RB2), albeit with a high floor. Receptions are key to fantasy football. This could even devolve into a Ridley/Vereen situation if Helu really pushed the cards. Again though, all of that requires health and durability. I'll give Helu the first of those two, but the second is still in doubt.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Helu is not a better all-around talent than Morris at the RB position. Any Redskins fan who has seen every one of their respective carries will confirm that. Helu is more explosive (or at least was, we are all hoping he is back to 100% eventually), but he is not a better runner of the football.

 

[Christo]

Helu is not a threat to Morris unless you dreamed Morris was going to start catching 60 balls a year. He is a threat to Chris Thompson, if they can both stay healthy.

Helu could be a threat if he could stay healthy. He's a better all around talent, but with no where near Morris' durability and physicality. That said, if Helu stays healthy and takes all the receptions, there goes Morris' upside and relegates him to low-end RB1 (or top shelf RB2), albeit with a high floor. Receptions are key to fantasy football. This could even devolve into a Ridley/Vereen situation if Helu really pushed the cards. Again though, all of that requires health and durability. I'll give Helu the first of those two, but the second is still in doubt.

Unless, like me, you own him in a non-PPR league.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am astonished that this is the 3rd page and no one has mentioned a pretty important fact.

Ray Helu played with Rex Grossman and John (who the heck?) Beck as his QBs. This is not even the same universe of a threat that Griffin and the read option caused. in 2011 the Redskins offense was 26th in scoring and 16th in yards. In 2012 this jumped to 4th and 5th respectively. In a season that broke records for total plays.

In 2011 Skeletor ran Helu into the ground and he got injured. This is why he is always recycling RB because when he does have a guy that is getting it done.. that guy is going to be very busy. Skeletor breaks RB when the QB play is not up to par and a replacement always needs to be available.

I watched a few of Helu's games. I thought he did pretty well under the circumstances. I do not think he was as good of a inside runner as Morris is but he does have more wheels and I can see him having a role if healthy. Helu had 7 catches in 3 games played before being injured (Morris got most of the rushing attempts). He has 3.1 receptions a game over 18 games played.

1 2011 1 2011-09-11 22-278 WAS NYG W 28-14 1 2 2.00 0 0 0 0 0 02 2011 2 2011-09-18 22-285 WAS ARI W 22-21 10 74 7.40 0 3 38 12.67 0 0 03 2011 3 2011-09-26 22-293 WAS @ DAL L 16-18 5 15 3.00 0 2 17 8.50 0 0 04 2011 4 2011-10-02 22-299 WAS @ STL W 17-10 8 35 4.38 0 0 0 0 0 05 2011 5 2011-10-16 22-313 WAS PHI L 13-20 2 6 3.00 0 2 11 5.50 0 0 06 2011 6 2011-10-23 22-320 WAS @ CAR L 20-33 1 -1 -1.00 0 2 6 3.00 0 0 07 2011 7 2011-10-30 22-327 WAS @ BUF L 0-23 0 0 0 3 20 6.67 0 0 08 2011 8 2011-11-06 22-334 WAS SFO L 11-19 10 41 4.10 0 14 105 7.50 0 0 09 2011 9 2011-11-13 22-341 WAS @ MIA L 9-20 6 41 6.83 0 3 13 4.33 0 0 010 2011 10 2011-11-20 22-348 WAS DAL L 24-27 8 35 4.38 0 2 3 1.50 0 0 011 2011 11 2011-11-27 22-355 WAS @ SEA W 23-17 23 108 4.70 1 7 54 7.71 0 1 612 2011 12 2011-12-04 22-362 WAS NYJ L 19-34 23 100 4.35 1 4 42 10.50 0 1 613 2011 13 2011-12-11 23-004 WAS NWE L 27-34 27 126 4.67 0 2 6 3.00 0 0 014 2011 14 2011-12-18 23-011 WAS @ NYG W 23-10 23 53 2.30 0 3 16 5.33 0 0 015 2011 16 2012-01-01 23-025 WAS @ PHI L 10-34 4 5 1.25 0 2 48 24.00 1 1 6Helu was getting close to 30 touches a game for a few weeks there before he got injured. Tim Hightower was getting a lot of touches early on in the season but Helu was still getting 2-3 catches a game. That is kind of what I would expect if both RB are healthy. Helu could be a very good RB if Morris missed time so a valuable handcuff perhaps similar to Gerhardt.

 

[10tihwj]

Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.

 

[10tihwj]

Morris runs a 4.67 40. Even his supporters say it is "functional speed". He's a big guy, a bruiser. It's not rocket science.

 

[donkshow]

I'll be taking a super late flyer on Helu. Morris is a beast, seemingly came out of nowhere, but a healthy Helu could get 10-15 touches per game I think. Solid bye-week filler potential.

 

[FUBAR]

Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.

Not neccessarily. I'd think he would want to move the chains.

 

[10tihwj]

I'll be taking a super late flyer on Helu. Morris is a beast, seemingly came out of nowhere, but a healthy Helu could get 10-15 touches per game I think. Solid bye-week filler potential.

10-15 touches a game is a lot, and takes me back to the prior argument I made about normalizing Morris' 2012 season. The backup RBs got 37 carries for the entire year last year.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.

I have a feeling that you think the Redskins ran the read-option a LOT more than they actually did. Keep in mind that just operating out of the pistol formation does not = read option.

 

[bmsarvis]

Where did morris rank among the league leaders in long eun plays? Ten yards + 20 + and 30+... I'm pretty sure he was among the top.in every category. He doesnt need to be a tenth or two seconds faster in the forty time. I really think speed is irrelevant in this conversation. Also, if i remember correctly when the two were healthy (royster n helu) i believe royster looked better. I cant remember what took royster so long to have an impact but when he got his shot.i think he was an all around better back than helu. Save for the couple games where helu caught a 100 passes.

 

[tdmills]

Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.

I have a feeling that you think the Redskins ran the read-option a LOT more than they actually did. Keep in mind that just operating out of the pistol formation does not = read option.

Thank you, some real bad Morris haters in here.

 

[10tihwj]

Not a Morris hater, just pointing out some questions about whether he can ever meet last year's production. There are many, many objective signs out there to say that he cannot, and that he is just one of those high floor-low ceiling guys who, in even a very good scenario, is not apt to crack the top 10 going forward and is just as likely to hit the 15-18 range.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.

I must have imagined that game in Week 17 last year, where Morris ran 33 times for 200 yards and three touchdowns, two of which were from 17 and 32 yards.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

I think Morris numbers are going to come down simply because it is unreasonable for one back to get 90% of his teams carries for an entire season. I think we also might see less TDs as the passing game improves. I dont think Helu is threatening to make this a timeshare but any team with realistic playoff hopes isn't going to drive their RB into the ground in the first 10 games.

1475 yds / 11 tds

I would take him end of first, after Rice/Mccoy before Richardson/Spiller

 

[ghostguy123]

I think Morris numbers are going to come down simply because it is unreasonable for one back to get 90% of his teams carries for an entire season. I think we also might see less TDs as the passing game improves. I dont think Helu is threatening to make this a timeshare but any team with realistic playoff hopes isn't going to drive their RB into the ground in the first 10 games.

1475 yds / 11 tds

I would take him end of first, after Rice/Mccoy before Richardson/Spiller

I would agree his rushing number likely wont be as good.

However, I would wager he catches more passes than last year. Even if it is only 10 more, that is a nice boost that can easily offset his regression in rushing stats.

But I cant take him ahead of Spiller or Richardson.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Shanny generally gives a full workload to one back doesn't he.

 

[werdnoynek]

Shanny generally gives a full workload to one back doesn't he.

He did, does he now? I'm not so sure. I think we may a bit more COP action this season. If Thompson is healthy he could add some spiciness.

 

[KellysHeroes]

The TDs will be there, RG won't be steal as many this yr

 

[Faust]

Finding a third-down running back key for Redskins

By John Keim,

Excerpt:

What to watch for:

Morris’s encore. Anyone who thinks Morris only benefited from the zone read did not pay attention to his year. Yes, Morris ran the zone read well and was helped by the extra attention paid to Robert Griffin III on those runs. But the play-action passes worked so well because of Morris – ask Kirk Cousins how he benefited in his one start from the way Cleveland defended Morris. The Browns ran right at Morris, leaving them susceptible to play-action and bootlegs. Guess what beat them? And Morris’s skills as a runner should not be overlooked. He’s patient, presses the hole well – getting a yard behind the line – forces the defense to commit, sets up his blockers to seal and then cuts back. He’s a terrific fit in this offense. Morris averaged 4.6 yards per carry on non-zone-read runs – and he averaged less than four zone-read runs per game. He’s a tough runner who unofficially gained 1,000 yards after contact. He’s still not an every-down back (others were better on third downs) and he’s not flashy, but Morris is good.

Rotoworld:

Alfred Morris averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2012 on non-zone-read runs.
We've seen it suggested that Morris was purely a product of the Redskins' 2012 zone-read offense, but this statistic supports the more factual notion that he's more than that. Despite a 4.72 forty time coming out of Florida Atlantic, Morris has showed just enough burst, wiggle, and quick cutting ability to have success. His vision and violent tackle breaking are what make him special. In 2012, Pro Football Focus credited only Adrian Peterson (1,369) and Doug Martin (1,005) with more yards after contact than Morris (1,001). Marshawn Lynch (872) and Arian Foster (766) were a distant fourth and fifth, respectively.

Source: Washington Post

 

[Buffaloes]

Shanny generally gives a full workload to one back doesn't he.

depends on how good his #1 RB is

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone? So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has. Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can. I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.

I second this. The kid put up 1600 yards there is no way Shanny is putting him anywhere near the bench. I say anyone who has him ranked outside the top 10 is a fool

 

[ghostguy123]

People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone? So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has. Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can. I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.

I second this. The kid put up 1600 yards there is no way Shanny is putting him anywhere near the bench. I say anyone who has him ranked outside the top 10 is a fool

Talking PPR dynasty leagues, Peterson, Foster, Martin, Mccoy, Rice, Spiller, Charles, Richardson, Lynch, Forte, Wilson, maybe Miller. Fadden is close.

Call me a fool.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Forte, McFadden and Lynch before Alf seems like a mistake. Taking Wilson and Miller based only on upside seems dumb.

 

[cstu]

People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone? So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has. Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can. I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.

I second this. The kid put up 1600 yards there is no way Shanny is putting him anywhere near the bench. I say anyone who has him ranked outside the top 10 is a fool

If he stays healthy he'll keep his job in a highly productive offense for RB's. However, there's a huge risk with him if he gets injured because Shanahan will simply find the next late round RB who fits his system.

He also produces nothing in the passing game which greatly limits his upside in PPR. Because of this I could easily see him outside the top 12 in PPR even if he has another good year.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Shades of T Davis, could win someone a championship again this year, will draft with confidence...

 

[meyerj31]

Forte, McFadden and Lynch before Alf seems like a mistake. Taking Wilson and Miller based only on upside seems dumb.

I -love- Morris and I think he's going to be a perennial top 10-12 non-ppr guy but I'm not taking him ahead of Forte or Lynch in PPR dynasty. I would take Morris before McFadden because OAK is absolutely awful and that guy only plays half of every season. Lynch and Forte have a much higher ceiling because they can both easily catch 40+ balls (Forte could catch 60 this year). Lynch also rarely comes off the field - Morris is not a complete 3-down back.

Morris does everything well except catch pases - and I mean everything. He had the #1 rated pass blocking of any RB over 100 snaps. That's nuts! A rookie RB lead the league in pass blocking??? Better than 3rd down pass block specialists? And as stated he had the second most yards after contact, as well as very good stats on non-zone read plays. Morris is the real deal; he's just not a top-top fantasy option. You won't find a better RB2 in any format though. If he's there in the 3rd round in a 2 RB required dynasty PPR I will take him as my RB2 no questions asked.

 

[KellysHeroes]

ranked RB11 by fbg, seems just right to me

 

[karmarooster]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXx9Q4a8iJE

This was awesome. I was really surprised by his burst/speed, despite the characterization ITT that he is slow (40 time). He gets north-south so fast. Really a picture perfect Shanny back who will stick his nose in, hit the hole hard, and get north-south.

I can't shake the suspicion though that his likely stat-line this year is closer to Rudi Johnson - something like 1,300 yards with limited receptions, more of a PPR RB2. Dropping from 1,600 to 1,300 could come either because:

-Helu is mixed in more

-Fewer zone reads due to RG3's knee

-NFL adjusts to zone reads

-lack of solid WR corps finally catches up and fronts are stacked (although limited by RG3s rollout possibility).

For these reasons I tend to think of him as the top of the NEXT tier just outside of top 9 RBs that ends with TRich (due to PPR potential). I find myself struggling to choose either Morris, TE Jimmy Graham, or an elite WR like AJG, Marshall, or Dez. He's a very nice pickup as a RB if you grab a TE or WR on the turn, and he's an amazing RB2 if you get lucky, and you pair him with TRich or Rice or McCoy.

Can I hear some opinions about Morris as compared to Forte, SJax, CJ, Bush and Ridley (as opposed to TRich)? Ridley in particular seems the most comparable as he will get tons of carries but limited receptions.

 

[karmarooster]

Can I hear some opinions about Morris as compared to Forte, SJax, CJ, Bush and Ridley (as opposed to TRich)? Ridley in particular seems the most comparable as he will get tons of carries but limited receptions.

Can I get a bump for this? What makes Morris clearly better than Ridley this year, aside from the potential that BB plays some monkey games with us and gives Bolden 25 carries in a game or two without warning?

TDs were similar last year (12 vs. 13), Morris had a slightly better YPC at 4.8 vs. 4.4. The biggest difference was in carries 290 vs. 335. So it looks to me like 3 carries per game is really all that separates them.

 

[Todd Andrews]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXx9Q4a8iJE

Morris is a beast. Getting the most rushing yards in team history as a rookie on a team like the Redskins, who have had some serious runners, is a remarkable accomplishment. I am going to predict his receptions increase to around 30 and suddenly he is a guaranteed top 10 borderline top 5 back for the next five years easy, barring injury. As a Redskins fan, watching this guy and RGIII mature together is going to be a lot of fun.

 

[jurrassic]

People are idiots, thats why. Even after Shanny gives him 315 plus touches, they still think he is holding him back. He doesnt catch passes? Yet still managed to rack up 1600 plus yards. He find the endzone? So what is the problem? People like McFadden over this guy, and McFadden has never stayed healthy or sniffed the production Morris has. Just plain hype of others I guess and he is slippin. Get him on the cheap if you can. I couldnt move him for Murray or McFadden straight up according tot he other owners in my league.

I second this. The kid put up 1600 yards there is no way Shanny is putting him anywhere near the bench. I say anyone who has him ranked outside the top 10 is a fool

Agreed. All Morris did was finish second in the league in rushing yards and td's and set the all-time Redskins single season record. His 1,613 yards were the third most ever by a rookie and rank in the top 50 all time in a season.

 

[Shutout]

We simply don't know enough about him yet to rank him above a guy like Forte or SJAX this season. We know what those guys are. We don't with Morris. Lots of players have been in the right place at the right time and dones something once. Anthony Thomas looked like the next big thing as a rookie and then went south. Remember Steve Slaton? Wasn't everyone calling him a top 5-10 dynasty RB after a year? On the other hand, to be fair, there are also the Arian Fosters of the world. Overall, these types of things don't happen often but they do happen.

Morris might be the next guy that hits, but for this one year, I think I still take Forte and SJAX for now. If for no ther reason than what has already been said, just because I don't think we can completely forget about Helu or gloss over Thompson. Even as 3rd down backs or change of pace guys, there is always that threat of an odd situation happening with a Shanahan back that leads to disappointment (one of these other guys shows up big and suddenly a minor injury parks Morris on the bench for half a game...just small things that happen with Shanahan that frustrates ff owners and weakens the overall yearly production).