Neither side of this argument can benefit from what a coach says to the media about a player. From the Washington Post, 9/20/11, when Helu was a rookie like Morris:Agree with Omally and really disagree with you. Helu never got the kudos that Morris got from Shanahan. I love how you can say he isn't the type of RB that Shanahan is looking for after Morris was the #2 rushing leader in the NFL, behind only Peterson and his historic 2000+ yards. If Shanahan read your post, he would be laughing. Sure, a 1613 yard, 13TD effort is not what an NFL head coach wants from his RB.
By the way, he wasn't a homerun hitter, but he was 5th out of 16 1000+ yard rushers in terms of YPC behind Spiller, Peterson, Lynch and Charles. Seems pretty good company. Also, while not a burner like Spiller/Charles/ADP, he was also tied for 5th in the NFL with 20+ yard runs.
Oh, by the way, he was the #7 RB in my normal PPR league. If Shanny really does get him more receptions in the preseason like he was just quoted, he should be ranked high because his floor is top 10 when healthy with a decent amount of receptions. I also think "he may never score 13 TDs again" is way off as well. Sure, maybe he won't 13+, but there were only 8 RBs to score 10+ TDs and along with Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson and maybe Martin, he is easily one the best bets at 10+ TDs again. Morris gets the goal line carries and with RG3's health worries, he isn't Cam Newtoning his RB at the goal line.
Redskins coach Mike Shanahan believed that running back Roy Helu had something special, so Washington traded up to take him in the fourth round of this year’s draft. The Nebraska product looked good in the preseason, and on Sunday cranked out 112 all-purpose yards.
The thread asks about long-term concerns for Morris. I don't dispute his YPC numbers from 2012, but is that him or a product of the offense? Pierre Thomas (2011), Brandon Jacobs (2010), Tim Hightower (2010), Felix Jones (2009), Justin Forsett (2009), Correll Buckhalter (2009) and Shonn Greene (2009) all qualified as top-10 NFL YPC leaders in 2009-11 and none of them were in the top 10 in any year afterward. Some came on as gang-busters as rookies and fell off when their teams had other options available. They were replaced and in some cases, out of nowhere.There is a level of discomfort with Morris. He had a great rookie year in a read option offense in which the QB got more and more dinged as the season went on. Morris' volume increased as well. IIRC, RGIII got dinged in the Baltimore game and did not play against Cleveland. In Washington's last four games, Morris went 105-507-7. In his first 12 games, 230-1106-6. So, after RGIII got dinged, Morris put up 31% of his carries, 31% of his yards and 46% of his TDs in only 25% of his games. What that means is that Morris was on pace, prior to RGIII's injury for a 307-1475-8 season and he had nearly zero competition for snaps at that point. That pace puts him closer to Shonn Greene's season (276-1063-8) than I would like out of a top tier fantasy RB.“When you’ve got a guy like Helu, you don’t know why guys make plays, but the great ones do,” Shanahan said. “I think Helu is giving people ideas that he can make plays. He’s got some speed, some running ability and it’ll be an ongoing evaluation of him. Can he pick up blitzes? Can he hold onto the football? But I was pleased with what he’s done through the preseason and our second regular season game, and hopefully he continues to grow.”
RGIII was far more of a factor in the rushing offense before he got hurt than after. In the team's first 12 games, RGIII's numbers were 115-714-6. In the last 4 (he missed one), it was 15-101-1. He does not have to equal his pre-injury production, but even if he is 2/3 the player he was, he is still pilfering 4 rush TDs as a QB.
The primary backup RBs for the season were Evan Royster (23 carries) and Darrel Young (14 carries). The odds that the backups increase their workload in 2013 and beyond are strong. Plus, the Redskins scored 22 rushing TDs and 24 passing TDs in 2012. Garcon missed a bunch of time and RGIII was a rookie. Fred Davis tore his achilles. If RGIII is half the QB prospect everyone thinks he is, the tendency is for the team to score MORE passing TDs than 2012. Unless the team significantly increases its 2012 TD output of 46 offensive TDs (5th in the NFL), those passing TDs are going to come at the expense of rushing TDs.
There is EVERY reason to question whether Morris scores 13 rushing TDs again in 2013. Might he? Of course, but predicting his output from year to year requires some look at the facts, and the facts are that unless RGIII scores less rushing TDs and/or the backups do not increase their carries above the 2.5 per game that they did in 2012, the odds are more likely than not that Morris' carry and TD outputs decrease.
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