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Ask a guy who gambles on stuff about gambling on stuff (1 Viewer)

Bucky86 said:
Headed to Vegas next weekend. $50 to bet on something sports related. What should I do?
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What would the odds be on the Browns winning back-to-back Superbowls over the next two years? It would be interesting to hear what a book would pay out for that.

If the books don't offer that bet then what is the longest shot available at an online casino right now?

 
For those saying bitcoin is the best way to play online, what is the best place to bet sports online using bitcoin in terms of bonuses?

What are the advantages of betting using bitcoin?

 
BoltBacker said:
For those saying bitcoin is the best way to play online, what is the best place to bet sports online using bitcoin in terms of bonuses?

What are the advantages of betting using bitcoin?
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As many as you can, assuming you can meet the rollover.  Also most books convert the bitcoin to cash but a few like Nitrogen keep in in BTC

bovada and Sportsbook.Ag offer good bonus and easy to fund, especially for new accounts .  IIRC 5 dimes offers reduced juice

 
Dan Lambskin said:
As many as you can, assuming you can meet the rollover.  Also most books convert the bitcoin to cash but a few like Nitrogen keep in in BTC

bovada and Sportsbook.Ag offer good bonus and easy to fund, especially for new accounts .  IIRC 5 dimes offers reduced juice
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There aren't any good bonuses that I'm aware of at the Bitcoin books.

 
mquinnjr said:
Craziest backdoor cover you've ever been on the winning side for?
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Not what you were asking but I will tell you my friend's story of the worst beat he suffered gambling on college football. 

This was many years ago and I forget the teams involved, but it was some sort of conference championship game. The home team was only a slight favorite at -1.5. My friend thought the home team would win big so he laid the one and a half. The game is about over and the home team is behind by 5 points with the ball. They drive the field and score a TD as the clock expires, going up by one. The college crowd in it's excitement rushes the field and destroys the goalposts! There is no way for the team to attempt an extra point. The refs call the game over without the try, and my friend loses by a half point. 

 
Donkey Derp said:
I'm not talking about beating a props market with micro limits.  

If you have a successful edge beating sides and totals of a major sport, why would you take any risk making the market more efficient by posting plays for free?  Either a successful capper preserves their edge at all costs OR a successful capper compensates for publicly posting plays by becoming a reputable service for sale.
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The only advantage is networking.  If you're really good you'll get picked up by a group and you can leverage your advantage (more money, more outs)

 
BoltBacker said:
What would the odds be on the Browns winning back-to-back Superbowls over the next two years? It would be interesting to hear what a book would pay out for that.

If the books don't offer that bet then what is the longest shot available at an online casino right now?
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Orioles and Reds are both 1000-1 right now. 

I would put the odds of the Browns winning two SB's in a row at something like 500 or 600 to 1. The odds of them winning the next one are 66-1, and if they get one, obviously they've somehow put together a good team that'll have a good shot of repeating.

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
Not what you were asking but I will tell you my friend's story of the worst beat he suffered gambling on college football. 

This was many years ago and I forget the teams involved, but it was some sort of conference championship game. The home team was only a slight favorite at -1.5. My friend thought the home team would win big so he laid the one and a half. The game is about over and the home team is behind by 5 points with the ball. They drive the field and score a TD as the clock expires, going up by one. The college crowd in it's excitement rushes the field and destroys the goalposts! There is no way for the team to attempt an extra point. The refs call the game over without the try, and my friend loses by a half point. 
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:lmao:  that's brutal. 

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
Not what you were asking but I will tell you my friend's story of the worst beat he suffered gambling on college football. 

This was many years ago and I forget the teams involved, but it was some sort of conference championship game. The home team was only a slight favorite at -1.5. My friend thought the home team would win big so he laid the one and a half. The game is about over and the home team is behind by 5 points with the ball. They drive the field and score a TD as the clock expires, going up by one. The college crowd in it's excitement rushes the field and destroys the goalposts! There is no way for the team to attempt an extra point. The refs call the game over without the try, and my friend loses by a half point. 
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If you aren't familiar with it, look up the Western Kentucky Bahamas Bowl bad beat.  I was on the wrong side, too painful to write about.

Wrong side of Duke Belk Bowl as well.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Shtick aside if you stand to win a stupid amount of money and the second bet isn't terrible on its own, I'm ok with it.
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In layman's terms, you want to hedge if the first bet is a stupidly large amount of your bankroll. For example you get hammered and bet half your role on an 8 team CBB parlay.  Even if your original wager was prudently sized, you may want to hedge if your circumstances change before the bet pays out (eg you're diagnosed with ball cancer and will need the cash for upcoming medical bills).  

If you want to see the math, Google something like "hedge maximize expected growth bankroll" and have at.  

In a lot of cases the hedges going to be giving up some value for certainty. And that can be okay as long as you understand what you're paying for and how much that costs.  

Sorry for the hijack!

 
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munga30 said:
In layman's terms, you want to hedge if the first bet is a stupidly large amount of your bankroll. For example you get hammered and bet half your role on an 8 team CBB parlay.  Even if your original wager was prudently sized, you may want to hedge if your circumstances change before the bet pays out (eg you're diagnosed with ball cancer and will need the cash for upcoming medical bills).  

If you want to see the math, Google something like "hedge maximize expected growth bankroll" and have at.  

In a lot of cases the hedges going to be giving up some value for certainty. And that can be okay as long as you understand what you're paying for and how much that costs.  

Sorry for the hijack!
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It's never okay, hedging is for dumb people who don't understand math.

 
lumpy19 said:
It's never okay, hedging is for dumb people who don't understand math.
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A bit harsh, if true about the math, but saying it's never OK is a bit absolute.  If I played a $100 ticket on St. John's to win next year's NCAA title at 100-1 and they get to the championship game, I'm almost definitely hedging. If I'm sitting on a $10,000 payday if they win and they're a 5 point favorite in the championship game against Duke, I'm almost certainly going to fly out to Vegas and play a few grand on the Duke money line.  Sure, I may be sacrificing inherent value by locking in a profit, but if I'm guaranteed to collect ~$5,000 either way and can sit back and enjoy and expenses-paid trip and come home with a pocket full of cash, that sacrifice may be worth not having to sweat yet another game at that point.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
A bit harsh, if true about the math, but saying it's never OK is a bit absolute.  If I played a $100 ticket on St. John's to win next year's NCAA title at 100-1 and they get to the championship game, I'm almost definitely hedging. If I'm sitting on a $10,000 payday if they win and they're a 5 point favorite in the championship game against Duke, I'm almost certainly going to fly out to Vegas and play a few grand on the Duke money line.  Sure, I may be sacrificing inherent value by locking in a profit, but if I'm guaranteed to collect ~$5,000 either way and can sit back and enjoy and expenses-paid trip and come home with a pocket full of cash, that sacrifice may be worth not having to sweat yet another game at that point.
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I stand by my use of the word never

 
lumpy19 said:
Of course there's more to life than math.....but this is sports gambling....ITS ALL MATH
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OK, then imagine you owe the mob $4,000 in the example I gave above and they're going to literally pull off your testes and feed them to you at gunpoint if you don't pay them by the weekend after the tournament ends.  You're still not hedging?  You're going to risk your very bollocks to avoid sacrificing value?  I know this is all absurd, but the point is, yeah - it's all math on paper, but sometimes the EV isn't everything in life. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
OK, then imagine you owe the mob $4,000 in the example I gave above and they're going to literally pull off your testes and feed them to you at gunpoint if you don't pay them by the weekend after the tournament ends.  You're still not hedging?  You're going to risk your very bollocks to avoid sacrificing value?  I know this is all absurd, but the point is, yeah - it's all math on paper, but sometimes the EV isn't everything in life. 
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You are correct, to always do it his way would take balls.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
OK, then imagine you owe the mob $4,000 in the example I gave above and they're going to literally pull off your testes and feed them to you at gunpoint if you don't pay them by the weekend after the tournament ends.  You're still not hedging?  You're going to risk your very bollocks to avoid sacrificing value?  I know this is all absurd, but the point is, yeah - it's all math on paper, but sometimes the EV isn't everything in life. 
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I would get $4000 from my bank acct and pay them

 
Who do you like for the Heisman this year?

Superbowl?

NCAAF Champ?

World Chess Boxing Championships?

What is the best futures bet out there right now?

What was the dumbest bet you made (not in hindsight, but you actually knew was terrible when you made it)?

What was your biggest futures win and on who?

 
lumpy19 said:
I would get $4000 from my bank acct and pay them
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It's worth pointing out that lumpy is more likely to have the four thousand bucks in his bank account because he does things like deciding he's willing to sweat St John's in the finals *before* making the futures bet.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Who do you like for the Heisman this year?

Superbowl?

NCAAF Champ?

World Chess Boxing Championships?

What is the best futures bet out there right now?

What was the dumbest bet you made (not in hindsight, but you actually knew was terrible when you made it)?

What was your biggest futures win and on who?
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I follow my betters re: any sort of football.

The one future I really like that was provided by our GB @The Ref's wife were the cast of Suits to attend the royal wedding. Each of the three people were lined around 20/1, and it looks like a sweep. I also really liked Gallo 20/1 and Hoskins 50/1 for most HR this year, and Kawhi at +150 to not make first team all-NBA. That was when he was still hurt and it seemed pretty clear he wasn't going to play 70 games.

Biggest future win was on Bayern to win the CL several years back, which I hit pretty hard.

Dumbest were a bunch of bets that I made on the last Summer Olympics, where I thought the lines were way off. Turns out I don't know much about how fast people run or throw ####, and I took a bath. Sometimes it's better to know you're dumb than to pretend to be smart.

 
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