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Car Market going forward (2 Viewers)


Fascinating chart showing % of residents paying over $1,000/month for their cars.

Fun fact: More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth in Q2 (driven by purchases of large trucks)
Is that for one car? I pay 1200 a month for two cars. :unsure:

One car. It’s not hard to do these days. Average car is almost 50k. If you have no down payment, 60 months at 8% with sales tax and fees, you are looking at $1000 a month. And that’s for the average priced new car.
Everything you say here is true but none of that mean this graph is 1 car for an individual. Nor does it say anything about “new“ cars.
 

Fascinating chart showing % of residents paying over $1,000/month for their cars.

Fun fact: More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth in Q2 (driven by purchases of large trucks)
Is that for one car? I pay 1200 a month for two cars. :unsure:

One car. It’s not hard to do these days. Average car is almost 50k. If you have no down payment, 60 months at 8% with sales tax and fees, you are looking at $1000 a month. And that’s for the average priced new car.
Everything you say here is true but none of that mean this graph is 1 car for an individual. Nor does it say anything about “new“ cars.
I sit in on industry forecast calls quite often. They are referring to new, individual vehicles. Average car payment for a new vehicle is now over $700 month.
 

Fascinating chart showing % of residents paying over $1,000/month for their cars.

Fun fact: More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth in Q2 (driven by purchases of large trucks)
Is that for one car? I pay 1200 a month for two cars. :unsure:

One car. It’s not hard to do these days. Average car is almost 50k. If you have no down payment, 60 months at 8% with sales tax and fees, you are looking at $1000 a month. And that’s for the average priced new car.
Everything you say here is true but none of that mean this graph is 1 car for an individual. Nor does it say anything about “new“ cars.

It doesn’t but I had just read that, as of last month, 17% of new car buyers had a payment over $1000, which aligns with the chart. Up from 12% in 2021 and 6% in 2020.
 
To be fair, some higher payments are by choice. My payment is $883, but I financed at 1.9% for 36 months.
True mine could probably be higher but I got the same rate for all so I chose 66 months but budget to pay of in 48.
 
To be fair, some higher payments are by choice. My payment is $883, but I financed at 1.9% for 36 months.
And some of the trucks in these states are write offs for work, etc.

But that's like looking at the obesity rate and saying, hey some people have gland problems. ;)
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.

Unless you got the excessive wear and tear coverage, you’re going to have to replace them anyways aren’t you?
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.

Unless you got the excessive wear and tear coverage, you’re going to have to replace them anyways aren’t you?

Yeah, that was more of a gripe about the whole situation.
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.
Depends on the SUV and your buyout price.
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.
can you buy it? my parents bought their covid lease car, a volvo. with the low miles, they are 8k ahead if they want to sell it now.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.
can you buy it? my parents bought their covid lease car, a volvo. with the low miles, they are 8k ahead if they want to sell it now.
Yeah we could. We really got used to the free maintenances and love getting the new car every few years, but we may be headed down that path.
 
Looking at EVs as we contemplate a second car when baby arrives, and the range issue is really getting to me. I really kind of want/need to be able to get from Dallas to Austin or Dallas to OKC without a charge. Lots of them have a range right round 220-250, which cuts a bit close for my taste. So I'm basically zeroing us in on Tesla or Lucid right away.

Is it stupid to buy the very first edition of a car, like the Lucid Gravity? My parents always avoided that to work out the kinks. Has anyone got the Air and have any thoughts?
 
So we have a lease on our SUV that is up and we extended once for 6 months. In September we will have the option to extend it one more time for 6 months at the same rate. Is the shark move to extend it as long as possible at this point? Oh, and it needs new tires. I loathe the idea of paying for new tires and then handing it in 6 months from now.
can you buy it? my parents bought their covid lease car, a volvo. with the low miles, they are 8k ahead if they want to sell it now.
Yeah we could. We really got used to the free maintenances and love getting the new car every few years, but we may be headed down that path.
If it’s worth a decent amount more than the residual value, a lot of times the dealership will buy it and cut you a check. Nissan did that with my Sentra and I didn’t have to worry about the tires it needed. They took it as is.
 
Obviously, the last couple of years have been fascinating. The aftermath of 2021/22 seems like it's going to be even more wild.

How big of a hit are auto lenders about to take?
Car payment delinquencies are the highest they've been since 2009. Yet, repo's haven't skyrocketed yet. The most likely reason is that these car loans were so unbelievably bad and people are so far upside down, the lender doesn't want it back. Dumb bank loaned an idiot $60,000 for a car now worth $40,000. A repo ain't solving that problem. Best to hope beyond hope the idiot keeps paying. Repo'ing just locks in the loss.

There's a tidal wave of massively upside auto loans coming, and it seems like the lenders are going to eat alot of this one way or another. The old saying goes, if somebody owes $1000, they've got a problem. If they owe, $50,000, the bank has a problem.

Gonna hurt dealers too. Many of the customers that got screwed in 2021/22 are going to be so disasterously underwater that they literally can't purchase another vehicle for a very long time (without destroying their credit or filing bankruptcy, at least).

The dealership model is already a little problematic. It'll be fascinating to see how they behave after the screw job of the last couple years. Or maybe all of this and the aftermath could actually garner enough support for some actual change.

BTW, the average car price in 2022 almost hit $50K. The average price of a Ford pickup truck.......$66,000.

How will the madness of the last couple of years untangle?
It’s a good question. Dealerships have fundamentally changed how they are holding inventory which is worse for the customer as there are limited options and everything is more expensive. I don’t know how the average person affords a car honestly at least in a fiscally responsible way.
 
I was hoping we were going to discuss some new automobiles in the Under $40K category
How about used cars 3 yrs coming off the leases? That's how I bought my last car, almost 6 years ago

Car leases have gone way, way down. Supply issues, cost, etc. It means less used cars on the market. Not sure we'll see the big price crash that people expect. There are some countervailing trends here.
Yes car leases may be going away. Dealers only did it due to excess inventory and with that fundamentally gone they don’t need to do it to get rid of excess inventory.
 
Looking at EVs as we contemplate a second car when baby arrives, and the range issue is really getting to me. I really kind of want/need to be able to get from Dallas to Austin or Dallas to OKC without a charge. Lots of them have a range right round 220-250, which cuts a bit close for my taste. So I'm basically zeroing us in on Tesla or Lucid right away.

Is it stupid to buy the very first edition of a car, like the Lucid Gravity? My parents always avoided that to work out the kinks. Has anyone got the Air and have any thoughts?

I mean M3LR can make that easily as can the S. There is a 250kw SC in Abbot on the way up and a 250 in Lindale on the way back. You could spend <10 min on each and hit both ends with 20%. The key to road trips being manageable is having charging at the destination and 250ks spread out in such a way you hit them somewhere between 20-40%.

MYLR you would struggle a bit, but if not driving 85mph you should be ok.
 
Looking at EVs as we contemplate a second car when baby arrives, and the range issue is really getting to me. I really kind of want/need to be able to get from Dallas to Austin or Dallas to OKC without a charge. Lots of them have a range right round 220-250, which cuts a bit close for my taste. So I'm basically zeroing us in on Tesla or Lucid right away.

Is it stupid to buy the very first edition of a car, like the Lucid Gravity? My parents always avoided that to work out the kinks. Has anyone got the Air and have any thoughts?

I mean M3LR can make that easily as can the S. There is a 250kw SC in Abbot on the way up and a 250 in Lindale on the way back. You could spend <10 min on each and hit both ends with 20%. The key to road trips being manageable is having charging at the destination and 250ks spread out in such a way you hit them somewhere between 20-40%.

MYLR you would struggle a bit, but if not driving 85mph you should be ok.
There are so many acronyms and abbreviations in here that I have no idea what most of the post means but I'm assuming it's helpful.

And it's a highway. I'm gonna average 85-90 most times for sure.
 
Looking at EVs as we contemplate a second car when baby arrives, and the range issue is really getting to me. I really kind of want/need to be able to get from Dallas to Austin or Dallas to OKC without a charge. Lots of them have a range right round 220-250, which cuts a bit close for my taste. So I'm basically zeroing us in on Tesla or Lucid right away.

Is it stupid to buy the very first edition of a car, like the Lucid Gravity? My parents always avoided that to work out the kinks. Has anyone got the Air and have any thoughts?

I mean M3LR can make that easily as can the S. There is a 250kw SC in Abbot on the way up and a 250 in Lindale on the way back. You could spend <10 min on each and hit both ends with 20%. The key to road trips being manageable is having charging at the destination and 250ks spread out in such a way you hit them somewhere between 20-40%.

MYLR you would struggle a bit, but if not driving 85mph you should be ok.
There are so many acronyms and abbreviations in here that I have no idea what most of the post means but I'm assuming it's helpful.

And it's a highway. I'm gonna average 85-90 most times for sure.
Auto pilot is still limited to 85.

Once you drive highways you won't want to not be running it.

I find abetterrouteplanner.com to be very accurate if you fill in your specific routing and driving habits. You can tell it you want to go 85 and it will factor it in.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
That seems like a lot of truck for a kid going to college. Why not a smaller car?
She loves trucks, it was a good deal. Being a Flex Fuel vehicle she can put E-85 in it which in my experience is usually $1 cheaper per gallon than regular gasoline. Its big so I feel safer having her drive it, and she can haul stuff back and forth from school, she is going to be a 10 hour drive away.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
Who has Mavericks? I thought they were basically non existent? Are around here.
I live in the Denver Metro area. Lots of them around here. Did some research on this and you can't put any orders in for Mavericks now. They might open back up to orders in November. People are selling used Mavericks above the selling price for new ones. A good guess would be April before you can get one if you order at the beginning of the year.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
That seems like a lot of truck for a kid going to college. Why not a smaller car?
She loves trucks, it was a good deal. Being a Flex Fuel vehicle she can put E-85 in it which in my experience is usually $1 cheaper per gallon than regular gasoline. Its big so I feel safer having her drive it, and she can haul stuff back and forth from school, she is going to be a 10 hour drive away.
Cheaper yes, but you get worse mileage.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
That seems like a lot of truck for a kid going to college. Why not a smaller car?
She loves trucks, it was a good deal. Being a Flex Fuel vehicle she can put E-85 in it which in my experience is usually $1 cheaper per gallon than regular gasoline. Its big so I feel safer having her drive it, and she can haul stuff back and forth from school, she is going to be a 10 hour drive away.
Cheaper yes, but you get worse mileage.
I drive an E-250 for work that is also flex fuel and do about a tank a week. It is worse mileage but still better economically.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
That seems like a lot of truck for a kid going to college. Why not a smaller car?
She loves trucks, it was a good deal. Being a Flex Fuel vehicle she can put E-85 in it which in my experience is usually $1 cheaper per gallon than regular gasoline. Its big so I feel safer having her drive it, and she can haul stuff back and forth from school, she is going to be a 10 hour drive away.
Cheaper yes, but you get worse mileage.
I drive an E-250 for work that is also flex fuel and do about a tank a week. It is worse mileage but still better economically.
The key with Flex fuel vehicles is 1)Don't be switching back and forth. The vehicle has sensors that measure the amount of alcohol in the fuel and your computer changes engine settings based on it. If you switch back and forth, it will show the composition somewhere in the middle and the computer won't adjust settings correctly triggering the check engine light and causing it to run rough and start hard. 2)You will not get as good of mileage with E85 as you will with 10% or 0%. The cost per gallon has to be enough less to justify the lower mileage, other wise you could actually end up spending more. Most of the time it is less enough, but there are times when the cost difference isn't sufficient.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
Who has Mavericks? I thought they were basically non existent? Are around here.
I live in the Denver Metro area. Lots of them around here. Did some research on this and you can't put any orders in for Mavericks now. They might open back up to orders in November. People are selling used Mavericks above the selling price for new ones. A good guess would be April before you can get one if you order at the beginning of the year.
Maverick order banks opened about 2 weeks ago for the 24MY. EcoBoost will be easier to get, demand for hybrids are still really strong. Spring is probably still a best case timeframe.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
Who has Mavericks? I thought they were basically non existent? Are around here.
I live in the Denver Metro area. Lots of them around here. Did some research on this and you can't put any orders in for Mavericks now. They might open back up to orders in November. People are selling used Mavericks above the selling price for new ones. A good guess would be April before you can get one if you order at the beginning of the year.
Maverick order banks opened about 2 weeks ago for the 24MY. EcoBoost will be easier to get, demand for hybrids are still really strong. Spring is probably still a best case timeframe.
Thanks for the info, I must of gotten old or incorrect information on the internet. I suppose if I am serious I should call the local dealer. It is crazy what the used Mavericks are going for though.
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
That seems like a lot of truck for a kid going to college. Why not a smaller car?
She loves trucks, it was a good deal. Being a Flex Fuel vehicle she can put E-85 in it which in my experience is usually $1 cheaper per gallon than regular gasoline. Its big so I feel safer having her drive it, and she can haul stuff back and forth from school, she is going to be a 10 hour drive away.
Cheaper yes, but you get worse mileage.
I drive an E-250 for work that is also flex fuel and do about a tank a week. It is worse mileage but still better economically.
The key with Flex fuel vehicles is 1)Don't be switching back and forth. The vehicle has sensors that measure the amount of alcohol in the fuel and your computer changes engine settings based on it. If you switch back and forth, it will show the composition somewhere in the middle and the computer won't adjust settings correctly triggering the check engine light and causing it to run rough and start hard. 2)You will not get as good of mileage with E85 as you will with 10% or 0%. The cost per gallon has to be enough less to justify the lower mileage, other wise you could actually end up spending more. Most of the time it is less enough, but there are times when the cost difference isn't sufficient.
Yes, I run E-85 in my van almost exclusively. The distance I drive hasn't changed but overall fuel cost is down. We will have to see what the cost of E-85 is in the state she is going to school in.
 
Perhaps someone hear knows but in Colorado the price of E-85 is $1 below the price of regular gas and stays there pretty consistently. Is this a regulatory thing?
 
Found a steal of a buy on a F-150 STX, 61 K miles for $18K. Daughter is going to drive it for college but it is tempting to flip it and try to get her a new Maverick.
Who has Mavericks? I thought they were basically non existent? Are around here.
I live in the Denver Metro area. Lots of them around here. Did some research on this and you can't put any orders in for Mavericks now. They might open back up to orders in November. People are selling used Mavericks above the selling price for new ones. A good guess would be April before you can get one if you order at the beginning of the year.
Maverick order banks opened about 2 weeks ago for the 24MY. EcoBoost will be easier to get, demand for hybrids are still really strong. Spring is probably still a best case timeframe.
Thanks for the info, I must of gotten old or incorrect information on the internet. I suppose if I am serious I should call the local dealer. It is crazy what the used Mavericks are going for though.
Many dealers don’t require a deposit, just a copy of a drivers license and a signed order form. I ordered a hybrid XL last September - reorder as a 2024. Cautiously optimistic to get it built in the spring.
 

Car Dealership Guy podcast from few weeks ago. Sorry if posted already.

His guest Danielle DiMartino Booth, was dropping some pretty strong takes, more than the host was able to handle 😂.

I am sure her opinions on the Fed and the state of the car market are not popular, and I have no idea if she's correct, but she makes strong points.

She's an economist, and economists are wrong, but she's definitely sharp
 

Car Dealership Guy podcast from few weeks ago. Sorry if posted already.

His guest Danielle DiMartino Booth, was dropping some pretty strong takes, more than the host was able to handle 😂.

I am sure her opinions on the Fed and the state of the car market are not popular, and I have no idea if she's correct, but she makes strong points.

She's an economist, and economists are wrong, but she's definitely sharp
She's been on the daily and a few other podcasts for npr and she bring the heat. That's for sure.
 
Is anyone on here a dealer or have access to full Carfax/etc. vehicle reports? My wife is interested in a used Infinity QX50 that has a damage report on it via the free online reports, but the owner says it was a minor incident that only involved paint scratches and no body damage. I have no issues paying for a full report for peace of mind but thought I'd check on here first.
 
Car buying question:

Likely to buy a new Subaru Crosstrek in next month or two. Able to pay cash, but seeing that you shouldn’t let dealership know that as you can use financing as a negotiating point to lower price of car (dealer makes money from bank of you finance). Idea is to finance and then pay it off immediately so the rate/financing really didn’t matter.

Would doing so have any impact on your credit score? Heard banks might not like seeing you do that.
 
Car buying question:

Likely to buy a new Subaru Crosstrek in next month or two. Able to pay cash, but seeing that you shouldn’t let dealership know that as you can use financing as a negotiating point to lower price of car (dealer makes money from bank of you finance). Idea is to finance and then pay it off immediately so the rate/financing really didn’t matter.

Would doing so have any impact on your credit score? Heard banks might not like seeing you do that.

It only effects your credit score if you have other hard credit inquiry in the last year or will have more hard credit inquiries in the future.

Even then it will only negatively effect your credit score slightly and will be erased once you are 1-2? years out from the hard inquiry.

It would be the same as opening a credit card or any other line of credit.

Most dealers do not give you a better price for financing in my experience. I did get a better price on a 2019 ram, but did not get a better price on a 2018 pilot, 2021 wrx, or 2022 Tacoma. In those cases we just paid cash.
 
@matttyl

New post instead of editing my previous one.

Hard credit inquiries stay on your credit for 2 years, but according to experian it only effects your credit usually around 1 year and it only drops it by 5 points. This is consistent with my experience as well after opening new credit cards, etc.

This is assuming you are paying off your loan right away.

 
Car buying question:

Likely to buy a new Subaru Crosstrek in next month or two. Able to pay cash, but seeing that you shouldn’t let dealership know that as you can use financing as a negotiating point to lower price of car (dealer makes money from bank of you finance). Idea is to finance and then pay it off immediately so the rate/financing really didn’t matter.

Would doing so have any impact on your credit score? Heard banks might not like seeing you do that.

Whats the rest of your credit history? If its long, with a decent rating and other installment debt (mostly a mortgage paid on time for a few years) its likely to have very little effect on your score. Probably fluctuate up and down a little for a few months but the impact would drop-off quickly.
 

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