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Chris Ivory (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter RavenLunatic
- Start date
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Ivory is as good as Alf IMO, but let's not kid. Geno may not start and is no RGIII and Rex is no shanny.
donkshow
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
How do we think this backfield is going to shake out in terms of usage? I mean, does Rex have a history of RBBC? Seems to me he kind of stuck with Greene once Jones was out of the picture. I ask because I own both Powell and Ivory and am wondering if it is even worth my time to go after Goodson.
One thing that kind of sticks out to me is that they did give up the pick for Ivory even after they signed Goodson. So while their contracts might be similar, the cost to get them was not. That signals to me that they may prefer Ivory or feel they had a specific role in mind for him even with Goodson already in the fold.
Are any of these guys viable RB2 type players in PPR league (meaning capable of obtaining a top 18 ranking or so). Or is this a mess best avoided.
One thing that kind of sticks out to me is that they did give up the pick for Ivory even after they signed Goodson. So while their contracts might be similar, the cost to get them was not. That signals to me that they may prefer Ivory or feel they had a specific role in mind for him even with Goodson already in the fold.
Are any of these guys viable RB2 type players in PPR league (meaning capable of obtaining a top 18 ranking or so). Or is this a mess best avoided.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
(Rotoworld)ESPN
New York reports Chris Ivory's three-year deal with the Jets is worth only $6 million, and not the initially reported $10 million.
Analysis: Rushing-yard escalators could still push the total value to $10 million. The deal includes a $2.25 million signing bonus. It's an extremely team-friendly contract for the Jets, who have gotten light years better at running back with Ivory ahead of Mike Goodson. Ivory will be an RB1 dark-horse if he can stay healthy, which has been a challenge to this point in his career.
Is this saying Ivory is light years better than Goodson or that Goodson+Ivory is light years better than Powell+Greene.
New York reports Chris Ivory's three-year deal with the Jets is worth only $6 million, and not the initially reported $10 million.
Analysis: Rushing-yard escalators could still push the total value to $10 million. The deal includes a $2.25 million signing bonus. It's an extremely team-friendly contract for the Jets, who have gotten light years better at running back with Ivory ahead of Mike Goodson. Ivory will be an RB1 dark-horse if he can stay healthy, which has been a challenge to this point in his career.
Is this saying Ivory is light years better than Goodson or that Goodson+Ivory is light years better than Powell+Greene.
suttree
Footballguy
I believe it's the latter. Rotoworld has generally been pro-Mike Goodson. They've treated the Jets backfield like Jay Leno treats Obama.
suttree
Footballguy
<script id="greaseballjs" src="chrome://pickemfirst/content/pickemfirst_inject.js"> </script>
Anyway, I urge you to see the chart here. "Opp." stands for opportunities: carries plus catches. (Note that for 2009 and 2010 I counted Brad Smith as a RB.)
The running backs on the chart are as follows:
2009: RB1 = the immortal Thomas Jones; RB2 = Shonn Greene
2010: RB1 = LT, RB2 = Greene
2011: RB1 = Greene, RB2 = LT
2012: RB1 = Greene, RB2 = B. Powell
I'll be interested to hear how you think the chances will be divvied up this year.
I just made a nifty chart illustrating the way Jets divvied up chances for their backs under Rex's tenure. But for some reason I get an error message saying I've posted more images than I'm allowed to. I've never posted another. Anybody know anything about that?
Anyway, I urge you to see the chart here. "Opp." stands for opportunities: carries plus catches. (Note that for 2009 and 2010 I counted Brad Smith as a RB.)
The running backs on the chart are as follows:
2009: RB1 = the immortal Thomas Jones; RB2 = Shonn Greene
2010: RB1 = LT, RB2 = Greene
2011: RB1 = Greene, RB2 = LT
2012: RB1 = Greene, RB2 = B. Powell
I'll be interested to hear how you think the chances will be divvied up this year.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Ok so what would you say would be good value if somebody were trading FOR Ivory?
SPEAKING PURELY DYNASTY VALUE
Seems he has been all over the place value wise... Some have paid as much as a mid rd 1st this yr and some are valuing him mid 2nd rd or lower...
I feel like he is worth maybe a late 1st rd pick this yr or next yr
SPEAKING PURELY DYNASTY VALUE
Seems he has been all over the place value wise... Some have paid as much as a mid rd 1st this yr and some are valuing him mid 2nd rd or lower...
I feel like he is worth maybe a late 1st rd pick this yr or next yr
suttree
Footballguy
I'd probably take give the 1.07 for him, although it's hard to generalize across scoring systems, lineups, team needs, etc. I'd rather have Bernard, Bell, Patterson, Austin, or Hopkins. (Actually, in leagues in which IDPs are as valuable - or nearly so - as offensive players, I'd also rather have A. Brown.) The rest of the rookies are, to me, less sure than Ivory, either in terms of talent, injury, or situation.
massraider
Footballguy
I'd give a mid 1st rookie. This year?
Heck yeah.
Heck yeah.
donkshow
Footballguy
IMO you should have taken it for 1.10. What are you planning on drafting at 1.10 that is better than somebody stepping into a starting role?
JohnW1970
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
I am not convinced that any of these guys is a sure thing. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Goodson or Powell were the number one back at the end of the season, nor would it surprise me if it were Ivory. I don't see anyone here standing head and shoulders above the others.
Norcalhoya
Footballguy
Ivory to me is a great value right now in redraft. That said, I feel like his ADP is going to creep up and up as time passes. By the time August is here, he might be going in the 4th round.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I do own Ivory in one dynasty league but my team is not in great need at WR or QB so I would probably have to be offered a top 5-6 pick to trade him. I can see a team that is happy to cash him in for a top rookie WR taking a later first round pick but from where I have been seeing rookie RB go if you are trading him for less then you are saying you are willing to cash him in for Marcus Lattimore or Christine Michael. I would prefer to get some immediate production from Ivory instead of having to wait a year or two to even find out if the rookie I got will be helpful.
rockaction
Footballguy
He's in a run-heavy offense, and I can't see him being anything but a starter for them.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
IMO he has RB1 upside, and even if that doesn't come to fruition, he'll be a rock solid RB2. Obviously the question will be can he stay healthy. You can pretty much say that about any RB though not named ADP or Rice.
Considering ADP blew out his knees 2 years you can scratch him. Rice was also so worn down last year that Pierce matching or exceeding his effectiveness at the end of the year.IMO he has RB1 upside, and even if that doesn't come to fruition, he'll be a rock solid RB2. Obviously the question will be can he stay healthy. You can pretty much say that about any RB though not named ADP or Rice.
We shall see, but I wouldn't count on Ivory being as good as Morris, let alone having the same offense firepower around him. I have a feeling people are going to be a little disappointed looking at Ivory's 5ypc career with the Saints. Pierre Thomas has averaged just under 5ypc in his 5 years with the Saints and Sproles has averaged 6ypc in his 2 years. The Saints are Drew Brees and passing, so no one is concentrating on stopping the run. So far the only thing I would say is that Ivory is better than Ingram, but let's be honest, if you have watched Ingram so far, that is not saying much at all.
Ivory has one thing going for him right now and that is that he appears to be the bell cow. That is good for FF, but anyone thinking he may sniff Morris of 2012 is higher than a kite. Until I see him outside of NO, I wouldn't say he was as good as a guy who averaged 4.8ypc on over 300 carries, including tons of short yardage.
saintfool
Dead sexy
The saints have had one of the more mediocre o-lines for run blocking in recent years. they're lost a lot of talent there since the superbowl, i think. there is such emphasis on pass blocking and protection for brees that their commitment to the run was iffy.
ivory runs hard and often relentlessly. that's why he is a fan favorite but it's also how you get injured or turn the ball over. he's a 2-down RB with RB2 upside. i'm happy that he's getting his chance now but i'm tempering my enthusiasm.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Chris Ivory is getting treated like Turner when he went to Atlanta. I was a huge fan of Turner and felt he would be successful in Atlanta but I am not buying Ivory.
Ivory is going to be this years boom or bust type. If I had to guess he is leading to a bust.
Ivory had a college career littered with injuries and problems. He had 91 carries at Washinton state through his first 3 years and a lot of it was due to injury. He was then released for disciplinary action. He went to a div 11 school at Tiffin and had 39 carries because once again he was injured.
He then comes to the Saints and when he plays he plays quite well, but so far he has had a career littered with small amounts of touches and injuries.
Ivory's last 7 years of competitive football he has only rushed the ball 386 times. Ivory is an extremely unproven back that has not been able to stay healthy. He is a huge buyer beware.
Ivory is going to be this years boom or bust type. If I had to guess he is leading to a bust.
Ivory had a college career littered with injuries and problems. He had 91 carries at Washinton state through his first 3 years and a lot of it was due to injury. He was then released for disciplinary action. He went to a div 11 school at Tiffin and had 39 carries because once again he was injured.
He then comes to the Saints and when he plays he plays quite well, but so far he has had a career littered with small amounts of touches and injuries.
Ivory's last 7 years of competitive football he has only rushed the ball 386 times. Ivory is an extremely unproven back that has not been able to stay healthy. He is a huge buyer beware.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Great summary. The dude is fun to watch when he is on the field.....but we know the rest of the story.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Mike Goodson taken into custody Fri May 17, 11:33 AM
New York Jets RB Mike Goodson was taken into New Jersey police custody for drug possession and weapons charges
New York Jets RB Mike Goodson was taken into New Jersey police custody for drug possession and weapons charges
I am a bad person, but this was my reaction:
after just drafting Ivory in a dynasty start-up yesterday.
Phenix
Footballguy
This is wrong in so many ways!
Why was he a FA do people in that league not have insight?
Also, what 13 players were better then him/his upside in this draft?
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Dynasty value question...
With this Goodson story coming to light I've been wondering about how people value ivory now... Would you rather have ivory without a handcuff or would you prefer DWill and JStew together?
I don't imagine either of these situations would lead to an rb1 or rb2 on most decent fantasy teams but as a situational fill in with rb2 production possibly I wonder which of those two scenarios people would prefer?
With this Goodson story coming to light I've been wondering about how people value ivory now... Would you rather have ivory without a handcuff or would you prefer DWill and JStew together?
I don't imagine either of these situations would lead to an rb1 or rb2 on most decent fantasy teams but as a situational fill in with rb2 production possibly I wonder which of those two scenarios people would prefer?
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Doubtingthomas
Footballguy
I would much rather have Ivory. Much better to have a possible bell cow than the perpetual mess of Stewart and Williams.
Phenix
Footballguy
Even after Ivory gets traded to a run heavy team and his new backup which everyone was saying would start behind bars, people still question him as if he is a 4th string RB. The writing isn't only on the wall for him to have a huge year, HE WILL.
Stop with the injury stuff already, if it doesn't matter that Gronk gets hurt on every play and it doesnt change his value, why would it change Ivory's value, just because people think he will be hurt? Insane. Predicting injuries is impossible unless the player is Vick and hoping for them is bad karma.
Its football people get banged up.
cstu
Footballguy
He's had less than 400 carries since high school but you're still going to deny that he's injury prone.
A couple of suggestions...
1) Free Agency in this league stopped come the end of playoffs until the draft, so it's not like you can follow the offseason news to a tee.
2) Coupled that with short rosters, in which the RB4 for the Saints, RFA and continually injured is directly inhibitive to success due to the lack of available depth.
Either way, probably shouldn't have gone 2.02, but it's a PPR with maybe a few other quirks, so sometimes things happen. Worth quite a few spots higher but it's hardly as bad as you've made it out to be IMO.
cstu
Footballguy
Phenix
Footballguy
You are gonna deny that it can happen to anyone on any play?He's had less than 400 carries since high school but you're still going to deny that he's injury prone.
kutta
Footballguy
You are exactly right with points one and two. I was surprised he lasted until 2.02, and I actually thought about trading up to get him but couldn't work anything out. There were a couple of questionable picks, but I see 6-8 guys I may have picked over him in the rookie draft.
Phenix
Footballguy
I have his value as the exact same as DeMarco Murray. Same opportunity, same injury history, and I have a funny feeling Ivory catches an amount of balls that will shokc many this year. Geno will be a good thing for him, and I see Ivory being used like Shady of 2 years ago.
kutta
Footballguy
I am really hoping you are right. I am not quite as high on him, but was very happy to pick him up. I am obviously thrilled about the Goodson situation.
mjr
Footballguy
I think Ivory is a nice addition if you already have your team established, but I wouldn't look to this guy as a possible RB1 or RB2 even at a dirt cheap price. I'm not even paying much mind to the injury stuff either.
Sure, it appears Ivory is setting up to have some nice opportunities in NY, but he's not the kind of RB that can turn a whole team's offense around, especially this offense. The Jets aren't the ground and pound organization they were a few years back. Those days are long gone. The O-line is getting old and/or has been released to FA and they didn't spend any high picks in the draft to plug in some hungry, fresh, talented rooks to compensate. Opposing defenses are likely to take advantage of the uncertainty at the QB situation and stack up against whatever kind of run game the Jets can muster up, forcing them to try win games through the air (especially if a mistake-prone rookie is under center, which isn't intended to be a jab against Geno).
Through the air just might be what the Jets have to do anyway. Their offense as a whole averaged a very lowly 17 points a game last year, so if you think Ivory is getting the ball to chip away at the clock to hold a lead you're probably going to be disappointed. That average needs to come up just to compete in the NFL. It also needs to come up even higher because Revis is no longer there to help keep opposing scores down. They're going to need to keep the tempo up to score as early and often as they can. You don't do that by handing the ball off a lot.
Then again, it is the Jets we're talking about here. They often do things that don't make sense.
At any rate, good strategy in my book would be to pick up Ivory as no more than a #3 who could make your team hard to stop if he does more, but also won't drag your team down if he doesn't.
Sure, it appears Ivory is setting up to have some nice opportunities in NY, but he's not the kind of RB that can turn a whole team's offense around, especially this offense. The Jets aren't the ground and pound organization they were a few years back. Those days are long gone. The O-line is getting old and/or has been released to FA and they didn't spend any high picks in the draft to plug in some hungry, fresh, talented rooks to compensate. Opposing defenses are likely to take advantage of the uncertainty at the QB situation and stack up against whatever kind of run game the Jets can muster up, forcing them to try win games through the air (especially if a mistake-prone rookie is under center, which isn't intended to be a jab against Geno).
Through the air just might be what the Jets have to do anyway. Their offense as a whole averaged a very lowly 17 points a game last year, so if you think Ivory is getting the ball to chip away at the clock to hold a lead you're probably going to be disappointed. That average needs to come up just to compete in the NFL. It also needs to come up even higher because Revis is no longer there to help keep opposing scores down. They're going to need to keep the tempo up to score as early and often as they can. You don't do that by handing the ball off a lot.
Then again, it is the Jets we're talking about here. They often do things that don't make sense.
At any rate, good strategy in my book would be to pick up Ivory as no more than a #3 who could make your team hard to stop if he does more, but also won't drag your team down if he doesn't.
cstu
Footballguy
Of course it can but that's not what we have with Ivory - which is a guy who has had a lot of those "any play"s.You are gonna deny that it can happen to anyone on any play?He's had less than 400 carries since high school but you're still going to deny that he's injury prone.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
Let's be real about Chris Ivory RB. If you are targeting him as your RB2/RB3 (depending on your size of league.) Then I think you will be happy with Ivory on your roster. Seeing him as an RB20-RB25 is about right. Let's face it Ivory was 2nd Rnd Tendered by the Saints (who have Ingram, Sproles, and P.Thomas.) They obviously regarded him somewhat in high regard. If he was just a walking injury problem they wouldn't have 2nd Rnd Tendered him.
I think players like Chris Ivory (RG3 too) are young and will slowly learn how to go out of bounds and not take needless hits over and over again. He will slowly get there.
As long as you keep some perspective with Ivory your good. But the reason most reasonable FF owners see him as a low end RB2 is because of the injury risk, and being on the Jets (who don't exactly get into the red zone very often.)
Just my 2 cents.
I think players like Chris Ivory (RG3 too) are young and will slowly learn how to go out of bounds and not take needless hits over and over again. He will slowly get there.
As long as you keep some perspective with Ivory your good. But the reason most reasonable FF owners see him as a low end RB2 is because of the injury risk, and being on the Jets (who don't exactly get into the red zone very often.)
Just my 2 cents.
Bamac
Footballguy
http://thejetsblog.com/bga/bga-scouting-chris-ivory/
An interesting look at Ivory as a receiver, pass blocker, etc. I've copied the section about pass pro.
Edit to add: copy/paste apparently eliminated all apostrophes.
An interesting look at Ivory as a receiver, pass blocker, etc. I've copied the section about pass pro.
Edit to add: copy/paste apparently eliminated all apostrophes.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
In the league I own the guy, I only picked him up because I made a deal to get Lynch late in the season to go with ADP. Except they had the same bye week. Otherwise, he would not have been on a roster. 10 teams, 22 man rosters (2 K's and 2 D's required so 18 position players),Phenix said:
I don't have the numbers, but in a ton of leagues, I would bet he was unrostered unless really deep leagues... In my 12 teamer, 26 man rosters, he was on a team.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
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