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Chris Johnson in the 5th Round? (1 Viewer)

I'm saying if Ivory remains healthy (one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy) he is going to steal enough 1st and 2nd down work to keep CJ at the 220-240 mark (~14-15 carries a game) by years end. I'm not saying he's the better running back, just that he's the more talented runner.
ok
Do you really not understand what that means or are you deliberately acting obtuse? I'll give you a hint in case it's the former. There's more to being a running back than actually running the ball.
Why did we never get a facepalm emoticon?
So pass pro. and pass catching ability is included when I refer to a RB as being better pure runner? Got it.

 
Bri said:
CJ > Ivory

If you don't think so, you're like a burned lover still hanging on.

Their career success isn't remotely similar

We've all been wrong about talents in FF, move on
I'm saying if Ivory remains healthy (one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy) he is going to steal enough 1st and 2nd down work to keep CJ at the 220-240 mark (~14-15 carries a game) by years end. I'm not saying he's the better running back, just that he's the more talented runner. I'm not saying don't draft CJ based on this, just don't expect him to be some crazy steal as long as Ivory remains upright. If you actually looked through the Ivory threads, I'm one of his biggest detractors (all I do is parade around his lengthy injury history).
Throw in 2 catches a game and you are looking at a back with 250-270 touches. How many of those guys are available in the 5th round and how many are better than CJ?

 
I'm saying if Ivory remains healthy (one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy) he is going to steal enough 1st and 2nd down work to keep CJ at the 220-240 mark (~14-15 carries a game) by years end. I'm not saying he's the better running back, just that he's the more talented runner.
ok
Do you really not understand what that means or are you deliberately acting obtuse? I'll give you a hint in case it's the former. There's more to being a running back than actually running the ball.
dude, I said ok -- don't spend the whole day pissy.

they high fived each other, getting powell in the 4th a few years ago --- that's not first rb off the board, but it's what the pats just got for their starting pro-bowl guard, so it's not nothing either.

he sits around on the bench collecting splinters in his ### that year buried behind shonn greene but picks up 10 snaps, or whatever -- could've been hurt, some kind of project, or who knows, so I'm not throwing dirt on him.

a couple years later shonn greene has finally moved on to greener pastures, but now they trade another 4th to get ivory.

it's been established that they love powell, so they let the 2 of them split carries, which lasts maybe 2 games before ivory puts powell on the bench, relegating him to passing back, as ivory apparently can't do any of that.

we've finally reached 2014 where they go out and find yet another runner and pay him even more than ivory.

now, bear in mind this guy is an inferior runner, so ivory, the superior runner, will 'hold' him to 'only' 240 carries, while powell, the guy ivory benched, will take his passing downs --- this is the jets, after all.

ok

 
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Bri said:
CJ > Ivory

If you don't think so, you're like a burned lover still hanging on.

Their career success isn't remotely similar

We've all been wrong about talents in FF, move on
I'm saying if Ivory remains healthy (one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy) he is going to steal enough 1st and 2nd down work to keep CJ at the 220-240 mark (~14-15 carries a game) by years end. I'm not saying he's the better running back, just that he's the more talented runner. I'm not saying don't draft CJ based on this, just don't expect him to be some crazy steal as long as Ivory remains upright. If you actually looked through the Ivory threads, I'm one of his biggest detractors (all I do is parade around his lengthy injury history).
Throw in 2 catches a game and you are looking at a back with 250-270 touches. How many of those guys are available in the 5th round and how many are better than CJ?
Good question. According to MFL (PPR) as of Aug 1st RBs you'll see going in the late 5th/6th are Sankey, Rice, Gore, TRich, Tate. In PPR, I like CJ more than any of those options and unsurprisingly I have him projected to outscore all of them in PPR. I mean, I'm not exactly down on him (22nd RB in my projections) but I just felt like I needed to rein in some of the hype. I have no problem taking him at his current ADP.

 
I'm saying if Ivory remains healthy (one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy) he is going to steal enough 1st and 2nd down work to keep CJ at the 220-240 mark (~14-15 carries a game) by years end. I'm not saying he's the better running back, just that he's the more talented runner.
ok
Do you really not understand what that means or are you deliberately acting obtuse? I'll give you a hint in case it's the former. There's more to being a running back than actually running the ball.
dude, I said ok -- don't spend the whole day pissy.

they high fived each other, getting powell in the 4th a few years ago --- that's not first rb off the board, but it's what the pats just got for their starting pro-bowl guard, so it's not nothing either.

he sits around on the bench collecting splinters in his ### that year buried behind shonn greene but picks up 10 snaps, or whatever -- could've been hurt, some kind of project, or who knows, so I'm not throwing dirt on him.

a couple years later shonn greene has finally moved on to greener pastures, but now they trade another 4th to get ivory.

it's been established that they love powell, so they let the 2 of them split carries, which lasts maybe 2 games before ivory puts powell on the bench, relegating him to passing back, as ivory apparently can't do any of that.

we've finally reached 2014 where they go out and find yet another runner and pay him even more than ivory.

now, bear in mind this guy is an inferior runner, so ivory, the superior runner, will 'hold' him to 'only' 240 carries, while powell, the guy ivory benched, will take his passing downs --- this is the jets, after all.

ok
Where did I state that Powell would steal all of his 3rd down work? I said he'd steal some, maybe only a handle full of snaps per game. I could see him finishing the year with 20 or so receptions, 20 of which that didn't go to CJ.

And yes, I'll continue to contend that Ivory is the superior runner. People don't have to agree with me but he's going to get his touches regardless. The pie is big though. NYJ will likely run just a little under 50% of the time after all.

 
I'm not one to press ppl for projections, as they're just made up bs numbers, but what would you peg johnson's catch total at in marty's offense?

 
I'm not one to press ppl for projections, as they're just made up bs numbers, but what would you peg johnson's catch total at in marty's offense?
40, so 2-3 reception per game.

Last year NYJ RBs combined for a total of 52 receptions out of the backfield. I can see a slight uptick with the addition of CJ.

EDIT: It was actually 54 receptions.

 
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I'm not one to press ppl for projections, as they're just made up bs numbers, but what would you peg johnson's catch total at in marty's offense?
40, so 2-3 reception per game.

Last year NYJ RBs combined for a total of 52 receptions out of the backfield. I can see a slight uptick with the addition of CJ.

EDIT: It was actually 54 receptions.
was marty the oc last year?
Yes?


I'm not one to press ppl for projections, as they're just made up bs numbers, but what would you peg johnson's catch total at in marty's offense?
40, so 2-3 reception per game.

Last year NYJ RBs combined for a total of 52 receptions out of the backfield. I can see a slight uptick with the addition of CJ.

EDIT: It was actually 54 receptions.
Bet he catches more like 60
I don't think he's going to monopolize every single reception in the backfield but it's not an absolutely wild prediction.


 
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if he catches 50 balls he can put up somewhat similar numbers to bush last year, which was top 10 ppr.

feel free to shave him down a few spots and he still seems pretty good in the 5th.

the chief concern some people have is how they'll split carries and your bucket of cold water has him at maybe 240, which would be fantastic.

bear in mind you're basing your projections on a jets offense that didn't have cj, so I guess if you feel he's no better than bilal powell he can sub in for those numbers.

some people feel he's a little better than what they had.

 
if he catches 50 balls he can put up somewhat similar numbers to bush last year, which was top 10 ppr.

feel free to shave him down a few spots and he still seems pretty good in the 5th.

the chief concern some people have is how they'll split carries and your bucket of cold water has him at maybe 240, which would be fantastic.

bear in mind you're basing your projections on a jets offense that didn't have cj, so I guess if you feel he's no better than bilal powell he can sub in for those numbers.

some people feel he's a little better than what they had.
The water was lukewarm.

 
Bri said:
CJ > Ivory

If you don't think so, you're like a burned lover still hanging on.

Their career success isn't remotely similar

We've all been wrong about talents in FF, move on
I'm saying if Ivory remains healthy (one of the biggest "ifs" in fantasy) he is going to steal enough 1st and 2nd down work to keep CJ at the 220-240 mark (~14-15 carries a game) by years end. I'm not saying he's the better running back, just that he's the more talented runner. I'm not saying don't draft CJ based on this, just don't expect him to be some crazy steal as long as Ivory remains upright. If you actually looked through the Ivory threads, I'm one of his biggest detractors (all I do is parade around his lengthy injury history).
i would be ecstatic with 240 carries from cj. powell had 36 catches last yr. give cj 40. at 4 and 7.5 yp, thats 1260 yfs. so...6-8tds? seems pretty nice in the 5-7th round.

 
My only issue now is if the guys in my league are on to him. I could get him in the 6th if not because its a 2qb league. Just don't know if I should wait that long.
FWIW, I got CJ with the 7.05 pick in a start 2 QB league last Friday.
As a swing player or backup RB, he's a phenomenal selection IMO.

I feel way more comfy with a meh game from him and think he's about as good as it gets as far as a swing for the fences type start

 
So who is starting johnson this week and who over?

I am starting him over vereen. Pretty close between the too though.

 
PPR - starting him over MJD (as my 2nd RB, behind DeMarco Murray), and I am 4-deep at WR, so I can't start a RB as a flex this early in the game.

 
I've gotten this guy in almost every league I've played. Apparently, he was much higher in my rankings than everyone elses. The guy finished Top 10 last year, I don't understand what the problem is. :) Hopefully he doesn't busts, I've got Ray Rice in my back pocket in a few leagues with Chris Johnson so I know I'll have steady RB2 production. Maybe some trade bait if everything goes right.

 
Chris Johnson seems like one of those guys whose value is always higher in the off-season than it is during the season.

During the season people are always trying to sell him but can't find a buyer because no one is interested (just check out the Chris Johnson threads for posts dated during the season). Then his end of year stats look decent and we all get on board again during the off season only to be frustrated again by week 4.

 
On board officially as of last night. Dropped to the 5th and I took him. For reference, Gore went to me in the 6th, followed by Rice to me in the 7th. I only add this to talk about value at essentially the last moment before action begins.

Back to CJ, I think the Jets continue to pound the ball. Ivory will certainly spell him, but I absolutely think CJ is an RB2 in PPR leagues. IIRC, Ivory's health could be an issue and then Powell might step in but likely not to the same extent. I think CJ presents great value.

 
Chris Johnson seems like one of those guys whose value is always higher in the off-season than it is during the season.

During the season people are always trying to sell him but can't find a buyer because no one is interested (just check out the Chris Johnson threads for posts dated during the season). Then his end of year stats look decent and we all get on board again during the off season only to be frustrated again by week 4.
his end of year stats are inflated bc he doesnt miss games. his points per game is actually pretty mediocre and every week there are plenty of preferable options.

 
Chris Johnson seems like one of those guys whose value is always higher in the off-season than it is during the season.

During the season people are always trying to sell him but can't find a buyer because no one is interested (just check out the Chris Johnson threads for posts dated during the season). Then his end of year stats look decent and we all get on board again during the off season only to be frustrated again by week 4.
his end of year stats are inflated bc he doesnt miss games. his points per game is actually pretty mediocre and every week there are plenty of preferable options.
Yep, there's that and also that he's had a tendency to follow up a slew of bad games with a really big game after everyone has benched him, then another bad game when people put him back in their lineup.

Week 1: 5pts

Week 2: 2pts

Week 3: 2pts

(bench him)

Week 4: 16pts

(back in the lineup he goes)

Week 5: 1pt

(back to the bench)

Week 6: 30pts

(aaaaaarrrrrggghhhh!!!!!!!)

That was in 2012 and while not as bad, 2013 started off somewhat similarly. Four straight single digit games, the last of which was 3 points, followed by a big game, another bad game, and another big game.

If you were willing to stick with him after the slow starts and really bad games you probably got some decent value out of him. But I would wager that most owners gave up on him and missed out on several of his big games. He may have put up 1300/10 but most people didn't actually get 1300/10 out of him since he was probably on the bench for a decent chunk of that, and in their lineups hurting them for lots of the bad games.

We'll see if I can heed my own advice this year since I ended up with him, but it's much easier to say "just stick with him" now than it is when he's putting up 2-3 point games in your lineup as you lose games.

 
Chris Johnson seems like one of those guys whose value is always higher in the off-season than it is during the season.

During the season people are always trying to sell him but can't find a buyer because no one is interested (just check out the Chris Johnson threads for posts dated during the season). Then his end of year stats look decent and we all get on board again during the off season only to be frustrated again by week 4.
his end of year stats are inflated bc he doesnt miss games. his points per game is actually pretty mediocre and every week there are plenty of preferable options.
Yep, there's that and also that he's had a tendency to follow up a slew of bad games with a really big game after everyone has benched him, then another bad game when people put him back in their lineup.

Week 1: 5pts

Week 2: 2pts

Week 3: 2pts

(bench him)

Week 4: 16pts

(back in the lineup he goes)

Week 5: 1pt

(back to the bench)

Week 6: 30pts

(aaaaaarrrrrggghhhh!!!!!!!)

That was in 2012 and while not as bad, 2013 started off somewhat similarly. Four straight single digit games, the last of which was 3 points, followed by a big game, another bad game, and another big game.

If you were willing to stick with him after the slow starts and really bad games you probably got some decent value out of him. But I would wager that most owners gave up on him and missed out on several of his big games. He may have put up 1300/10 but most people didn't actually get 1300/10 out of him since he was probably on the bench for a decent chunk of that, and in their lineups hurting them for lots of the bad games.

We'll see if I can heed my own advice this year since I ended up with him, but it's much easier to say "just stick with him" now than it is when he's putting up 2-3 point games in your lineup as you lose games.
completely agree. starting him over mjd and ingram at the rb2 slot, which is technically my flex slot.

 
yup, you just gotta stick with him. it wasnt that hard to bc he wasnt splitting carries back then and he was a top pick so you likely didnt have any options that much more compelling. this yr, he could split with ivory which would cause a real headache.

anyway, hes in my lineup as a 2nd flex. thats the nice part about deeper leagues.

 
well, they are using ivory and powell a decent amount but cj just got a gl carry and was still in for 2nd but manuel scrambled and fumbled. cant say i am be too happy about his usage but he just needs to outplay these other guys.

 
yeah, you can see what they thought of powell when ivory took over halfway through the year and relegated him to a passing back role, but what I see a lot of in this thread is comparing chris johnson 2014 to chris johnson 2013 and projecting the 2014 jets offense off the 2013 jets offense.

marty mornhinweg gets very little mention in all this, and he coached neither chris johnson in 2013 nor the jets offense that year.

I don't have a clue how many carries chris johnson will get, but if you think he's any better than bilal powell he could be looking at a fortesque 80-100 targets in that offense.

I don't think the calls for 40 catches are even sniffing his potential in that scheme.
80-100 targets? Wha wha what?? Marty doesnt have Brian Westbrook and McCoy playing in their prime here..
MARK IT DOWN !!!!!
4m left in the game and he has 5 catches on 6 targets

did you mark it down?

 
Everyone still starting him week 2? I was happy with week one. He even got a few goaline carries. Ivory looked good too but cj is still the better play imo. He should put up better or equal stats on green bay. They will prob go super run heavy until they fall behind...

 
Got more touches. Ivory just broke that big one. Looks like a 55/45 split till Ivory gets hurt at least.

 
He's my RB2 so I'm basically all in. I think that he will get another 5 targets, so I'm hopeful he puts up another 12-15pt game.

 
I have Johnson on my team, and had Ivory last year. From watching Johnson for a few years, and watching Ivory as a member of the Saints and Jets, Ivory is the better back, IMO. But he can't stay on the field. I mean, it's a frustrating thing to watch a guy that explosive and big relegated to a mop-up role for that reason, but that's what it is, really.

 
Much like Mr Wood, Chris Johnson is a RB I just can't quit. That said I was surprised in a game where the Jets had the lead and were in control, CJ only had 13 carries. Also his counterpart had over 10 ypc in relief. Johnson did just fine and when you factor in 5/23/TD it was a really nice day for owners in week 1. He was almost 20 points for most owners.

Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?

But you add in a 5th round tikcet price which most of us gladly paid and you got a nice RB2 as the 20th guy off the board or later maybe, the returns are going to be great for owners.

 
Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?
I actually believe CJ will have much better fantasy days when Jets are playing from behind for this reason. Ivory looked great to me, he's definitely more powerful in his runs than CJ so I feel it's appropriate for him to be the one in the game when the Jets are playing to kill the clock. Open field speed though, CJ hasn't lost all of it. We'll be able to confirm this against the Packs I guess, CJ in my lineup for week 2 with confidence.

 
Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?
I actually believe CJ will have much better fantasy days when Jets are playing from behind for this reason. Ivory looked great to me, he's definitely more powerful in his runs than CJ so I feel it's appropriate for him to be the one in the game when the Jets are playing to kill the clock. Open field speed though, CJ hasn't lost all of it. We'll be able to confirm this against the Packs I guess, CJ in my lineup for week 2 with confidence.

Exactly what I came here to post. Ivory can't catch. The Jets had the lead against the Raiders, so they were able to pound the ball in the second half. When the Jets player tougher opponents, the Jets will lean more on CJ for the passing game. Plus Ivory is always hurt. The Jets have a tough stretch of games coming up, so I expect CJ to get more touches than Ivory for sure.
 
Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?
I actually believe CJ will have much better fantasy days when Jets are playing from behind for this reason. Ivory looked great to me, he's definitely more powerful in his runs than CJ so I feel it's appropriate for him to be the one in the game when the Jets are playing to kill the clock. Open field speed though, CJ hasn't lost all of it. We'll be able to confirm this against the Packs I guess, CJ in my lineup for week 2 with confidence.
Agree Pigskin, and that's a good point. Ivory had all of 10 carries, granted he might have hd the same yards over 15 carries if he hadn't galloped one in from so far out. I think Ivory and Johnson make a solid backfield and Johnson owners should come up on the right side most weeks.

 
Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?
I actually believe CJ will have much better fantasy days when Jets are playing from behind for this reason. Ivory looked great to me, he's definitely more powerful in his runs than CJ so I feel it's appropriate for him to be the one in the game when the Jets are playing to kill the clock. Open field speed though, CJ hasn't lost all of it. We'll be able to confirm this against the Packs I guess, CJ in my lineup for week 2 with confidence.

Exactly what I came here to post. Ivory can't catch. The Jets had the lead against the Raiders, so they were able to pound the ball in the second half. When the Jets player tougher opponents, the Jets will lean more on CJ for the passing game. Plus Ivory is always hurt. The Jets have a tough stretch of games coming up, so I expect CJ to get more touches than Ivory for sure.
To both of you, I always try to play devil's advecote even when I feel otherwise. I was trying to make a point that he only saw 13 carries but then we have great posters who come in with awesome perspctive on why that is(that be you all). These posts are not the information you find on NFLN, sorry but they are not going to mention the idea of why or how the split is happening with CJ/Ivory. I know what CJ can do, I know he isn't what he once was but he still is a top12 RB in this league. However, he lost his shine and now you scoop him up in the 5th.

 
Insein said:
Got more touches. Ivory just broke that big one. Looks like a 55/45 split till Ivory gets hurt at least.
True but CJ was in on 33 offensive snaps and Ivory was in on 30. Johnson will definitely get more touches in most games but it looks like the Jets are sincere about giving Ivory the chance to be the hot hand in games and I think that he will end up with more touches in a handful of games (and produce like a #2 RB, at least, in those games), and be a viable flex option in the other ones.

 
need2know said:
Everyone still starting him week 2? I was happy with week one. He even got a few goaline carries. Ivory looked good too but cj is still the better play imo. He should put up better or equal stats on green bay. They will prob go super run heavy until they fall behind...
uh...yeah. He got 20 PTs in PPR leagues. That's amazing.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Much like Mr Wood, Chris Johnson is a RB I just can't quit. That said I was surprised in a game where the Jets had the lead and were in control, CJ only had 13 carries. Also his counterpart had over 10 ypc in relief. Johnson did just fine and when you factor in 5/23/TD it was a really nice day for owners in week 1. He was almost 20 points for most owners.

Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?

But you add in a 5th round tikcet price which most of us gladly paid and you got a nice RB2 as the 20th guy off the board or later maybe, the returns are going to be great for owners.
actually, powell got a lot of run on passing downs

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Much like Mr Wood, Chris Johnson is a RB I just can't quit. That said I was surprised in a game where the Jets had the lead and were in control, CJ only had 13 carries. Also his counterpart had over 10 ypc in relief. Johnson did just fine and when you factor in 5/23/TD it was a really nice day for owners in week 1. He was almost 20 points for most owners.

Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?

But you add in a 5th round tikcet price which most of us gladly paid and you got a nice RB2 as the 20th guy off the board or later maybe, the returns are going to be great for owners.
actually, powell got a lot of run on passing downs
yeah, he be hoggin' dem 12 snaps

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Much like Mr Wood, Chris Johnson is a RB I just can't quit. That said I was surprised in a game where the Jets had the lead and were in control, CJ only had 13 carries. Also his counterpart had over 10 ypc in relief. Johnson did just fine and when you factor in 5/23/TD it was a really nice day for owners in week 1. He was almost 20 points for most owners.

Even when the Jets are not winning you have to think Johnson is the guy in the passing game. Obviously expecting 5 catches a week is a bit much but then again this team has a rookie TE/Subpar other TE, WR1 in Decker is OK, not a lot else at WR that causes fear for most defenses, Johnson is probably the 2nd best option in the passing game?

But you add in a 5th round tikcet price which most of us gladly paid and you got a nice RB2 as the 20th guy off the board or later maybe, the returns are going to be great for owners.
actually, powell got a lot of run on passing downs
yeah, he be hoggin' dem 12 snaps
Zero targets and one rush.

Doesn't seem like much of a threat right now.

 

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