ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Hooker at 20 was finishing up his senior year of HS.
Richardson at 20 is entering the NFL draft.
Crazy
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QB Anthony Richardson, IND (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hooker at 20 was finishing up his senior year of HS.
Richardson at 20 is entering the NFL draft.
Crazy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I’ll get the shovels.
massraider
Footballguy
This accuracy thing is overblown. Look at this.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
That was a dime. Bumping him up a spot.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Still have him as my top QB option in 1QB, which is going to favor the run upside. I'm prepared to take a shot at the 1.7, though that's probably more of an indictment on the other options at RB and WR.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Brent Sobleski
@brentsobleski
"Speculation from league insiders during Florida’s pro day is the Seattle Seahawks could be the team that leapfrogs the Indianapolis Colts and trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure [Anthony] Richardson."
----------------------
Pro Day News and Rumors: Anthony Richardson to Seattle? Plus, Justin Shorter and O’Cyrus Torrence Show Off at Florida Pro Day
@brentsobleski
"Speculation from league insiders during Florida’s pro day is the Seattle Seahawks could be the team that leapfrogs the Indianapolis Colts and trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure [Anthony] Richardson."
----------------------
Pro Day News and Rumors: Anthony Richardson to Seattle? Plus, Justin Shorter and O’Cyrus Torrence Show Off at Florida Pro Day
socrates
Footballguy
No doubt his fantasy ceiling is ridiculously high, but make no mistake, Richardson is a project as an NFL QB. That said, he is not as raw coming into the league as Malik Willis or Trey Lance. In a 1QB league, I am probably not spending the 1.7 on him, but he may not be there when your Round 2 pick comes around. Each league is different, so what you invest depends on the specifics of your own league. Is trading down a good option for you? The AR hype is high right now, so, depending on when your league drafts, I would wait and see where AR's value settles.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
You're right, league and team specifics matter. I probably take Stroud as the safest QB in a super-flex and probably Young too. However, in a 1QB where I'm set at #1, and have a quality Karen to backup, it's all about upside and taking a shot at the next Hurts.
Waldman's assessment was that he's much safer and not nearly the project that he has been labeled. Not a final word by any means, but it's an assessment that I factor in.
Do I love burning a 1.7 on any QB that isn't considered a can't miss in a 1QB? No, but I'm also not sold on taking one of the small RBs or a non-JSN WR that I'm not that impressed with in a start 2-flex 1 league.
The play is moving back to late 1st, maybe even early to mid 2nd. Maybe punt the 1st to 2024 and try to pick up a 3rd. The premium I should expect for such a move with this talent pool should be as low as ever. But it just takes one leaguemate to see it differently.
Right now, reaching on A-Rich or Spears feels like the debate I'm mostly likely struggling with in August if I don't trade out. But it's early and a lot can change even after the NFL draft.
zamboni
Footballguy
No one likes a complaining backup.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
FOX Sports Radio
@FoxSportsRadio
@danielkellybook
joins
@jasonrmcintyre
and breaks down Anthony Richardson: "He looks like he tends to hold the ball too long and it's like he's having trouble being able to figure out what he's looking at downfield."
@FoxSportsRadio
@danielkellybook
joins
@jasonrmcintyre
and breaks down Anthony Richardson: "He looks like he tends to hold the ball too long and it's like he's having trouble being able to figure out what he's looking at downfield."
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not as raw as Lance and Willis? I’m not so sure about that.
massraider
Footballguy
titusbramble
Footballguy
Is that just because there's nobody that thinks Levis is any good?
zamboni
Footballguy
Nothing really to do with Levis, but more about the range of potential upside/downside discussion about Richardson.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Sure, there's huge variance with the pick but I'm not seeing too many people saying he's Jamarcus 2.0 who's guaranteed to fail, I think the worst I'm seeing is he'll need a bit of time/scheming in order to develop or work around accuracy issues
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more raw player than Willis, and unfortunately I really don’t see him getting much better. Tennessee was literally scared to let him attempt a pass.
The NFL is a far cry from Liberty.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You make a good point about Willis. I think AR is more raw than Lance, but I could be wrong.
zamboni
Footballguy
That was my point - there is indeed huge variance. Perhaps not as pessimistic as Jamarcus 2.0 as you say, but there seems to be a lot of non-believers out there.
Chaka
Footballguy
No
Boston
Footballguy
That Denver/Wilson trade could not have worked out better for Seattle...if they like Richardson (or Levis) they could have their QB situation figured out for the foreseeable future and it could be a best-case scenario for both the team and player as you get the best of both worlds...with Geno onboard you can develop him for at least a year while still being a playoff caliber team...Seattle may not get this opportunity again for a while and while Geno looked very good last year you are playing with house $ with him and the ability to address the long-term future of that position puts the franchise in a great spot.
massraider
Footballguy
Vs Tennessee
His best plays in this game are when he throws from a clean pocket, not when scrambling. Also worth mentioning that he does not get skittish. When it breaks down, he keeps his eyes up.
His best plays in this game are when he throws from a clean pocket, not when scrambling. Also worth mentioning that he does not get skittish. When it breaks down, he keeps his eyes up.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
InsideAccess1057
@IA1057TheFan
One of Anthony Richardson's upcoming team visits will include a trip to Baltimore to spend more time with the
@Ravens.
Make of that what you will.
He is only making about a half-dozen visits
@IA1057TheFan
One of Anthony Richardson's upcoming team visits will include a trip to Baltimore to spend more time with the
@Ravens.
Make of that what you will.
He is only making about a half-dozen visits
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Very much so. It ain't pretty sometimes but he does have a desire to be a pocket passer.
The schoolyard taunt "you and what army" comes to mind. Baltimore doesn't have much draft capital.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Not yet.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Indianapolis has been one of the few teams that has publicly expressed some interest in Lamar Jackson. Could end up potentially as a Lamar for the 1.04 which puts the Ravens In position for Richardson.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Imagine if the Colts sign LJax, Ravens get their 2023 #4 pick….and THEN Detroit sends 6, 48, & 81 to the Cardinals to move up to #3.
I don’t even want AR, just seems like maximum chaos. I’ll root for that.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Anthony Richardson’s film is a magical disaster - That Franchise Guy
Marcus Whittman’s comprehensive review of the good, the bad, and the oh-my-gosh-that-was-bad film that is AR.
First 15 minutes are the superlatives, and there’s a lot to like. Truly special athleticism, superior arm strength, presnap reads, and (sometimes) climbing the pocket. Last third goes over the weaknesses: accuracy, pocket presence, and post-snap processing. Good stuff & worth spending a few minutes on.
(Pro Tip: YT settings has a playback speed setting so you can set this to x1.25 or x1.5 if you can’t sit still for 27 minutes)
Marcus Whittman’s comprehensive review of the good, the bad, and the oh-my-gosh-that-was-bad film that is AR.
First 15 minutes are the superlatives, and there’s a lot to like. Truly special athleticism, superior arm strength, presnap reads, and (sometimes) climbing the pocket. Last third goes over the weaknesses: accuracy, pocket presence, and post-snap processing. Good stuff & worth spending a few minutes on.
(Pro Tip: YT settings has a playback speed setting so you can set this to x1.25 or x1.5 if you can’t sit still for 27 minutes)
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
FIRST ROUND MOCK
@firstroundmock
How does Anthony Richardson’s 53.8% completion percentage translate to success in the NFL?
Does anyone realize a 53.8% completion percentage ranks at or near the bottom of NFL starters over the past 10 years?
-------------------------------
Look at the drop-rate of Richardson's WRs.
This helps to explain a few of the incompletions.
--------------------------------
Ian
@NFLFilmStudy
Anthony Richardson's catchable ball rate is fascinating.
Of the 91 charted QBs, only 1 (Marino) had a higher drop rate by his WRs.
The only QB better at avoiding sacks was Philip Rivers.
Had 5th least attempts under 10 yards.
Overall accuracy resembles Geno, Kyler, Pickett
LINK to chart
@firstroundmock
How does Anthony Richardson’s 53.8% completion percentage translate to success in the NFL?
Does anyone realize a 53.8% completion percentage ranks at or near the bottom of NFL starters over the past 10 years?
-------------------------------
Look at the drop-rate of Richardson's WRs.
This helps to explain a few of the incompletions.
--------------------------------
Ian
@NFLFilmStudy
Anthony Richardson's catchable ball rate is fascinating.
Of the 91 charted QBs, only 1 (Marino) had a higher drop rate by his WRs.
The only QB better at avoiding sacks was Philip Rivers.
Had 5th least attempts under 10 yards.
Overall accuracy resembles Geno, Kyler, Pickett
LINK to chart
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-OZ-
Footballguy
In fantasy, SF, he’s a top 3 pick. Arguably 1. I just don’t see people laughing at it. They might think it’s a mistake to take him 1.01 but it’s not laughable.
(Although I am still kicking myself for taking Lance 1.02)
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed. My league is an 8 keeper SF league with limited contracts, so there are some proven vets in the draft as well. That said, I'm sitting at pick 6 and can see myself grabbing him.
ETA: we also just finished our second year of SF, so a lot of owners still have a 1 QB mindset that QBs can always be grabbed later
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
All true.
The play at 2:31 stands out but not in a good way. He scrambles, keeps his head up, finds the open WR but misses badly. There are a lot of throws that are way off target, 100% on him not the WR.
But then you see a play like 4:14 and it's all the right things. I totally get why some team is going to draft him in the top 5. It's super risky, but man does he look awesome running.
And maybe someone can fix his footwork in the pocket and when making throws while scrambling.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Michael Lombardi
@mlombardiNFL
Anthony Richardson's draft stock just keeps rising. But to think he deserves to be taken in the top 5 isn't just absurd - it's absurd-squared.
LINK to video
@mlombardiNFL
Anthony Richardson's draft stock just keeps rising. But to think he deserves to be taken in the top 5 isn't just absurd - it's absurd-squared.
LINK to video
zamboni
Footballguy
Maybe he’s right, maybe not, but I tend to stop listening when analysts start making convenient/lazy comparisons to Malik Willis.
massraider
Footballguy
The only Lombardi worth listening to has been dead for a long time.
facook
Footballguy
Total blowhard who is nothing but a GM misinformation tool at this point.
titusbramble
Footballguy
I have 1.04 in my SF league and do not care what happens
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I would say Levis is just as polarizing, he just isn't getting the same level of buzz. Watching tape on Levis, he looks like good Josh Allen on some plays and bad J.Winston on others. He'll be a top 10 pick for sure but could boom/bust either way. If I had to take a chance on Levis or Richardson, I think it's a no-brainer to go with Levis. He is a mobile QB with a cannon arm and a 65% completion vs. 53%.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree - just don’t see the potential upside from a fantasy standpoint that Richardson brings.
Largent
Footballguy
RSP report from Waldman:
Elevator Pitch: Imagine a quarterback who is as fast as Justin Fields, but 17 pounds heavier, has a vertical explosion of 40 inches and has a more nuanced understanding of how to manipulate coverage despite playing 12 fewer games in college. What about a passer with arm talent on par with Josh Allen but with more consistent pocket management and smarter pass placement than Allen had in college? Until Richardson came along, you wouldn’t have dared.
And if that’s not enough, consider that Richardson is one of the most impressive learners on and off the field that his quarterback coach Will Hewlett has seen—including Hewlett’s recent success story, Brock Purdy. The best way to visualize Richardson’s comparison spectrum isn’t a straight line but that of a pyramid with Richardson the top point and the other players’ feeding into his game from either side of the spectrum. He’s a unique amalgamation of player styles.
For those of you who can’t get past the 58 percent completion rate, interceptions, and untimely errors, consider that the nature of Richardson’s errors are more akin to problems that we saw with the likes of Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger. If they were the type of errors linked to Drew Lock, Zach Wilson, and Baker Mayfield, there would be reason for concern.
Elevator Pitch: Imagine a quarterback who is as fast as Justin Fields, but 17 pounds heavier, has a vertical explosion of 40 inches and has a more nuanced understanding of how to manipulate coverage despite playing 12 fewer games in college. What about a passer with arm talent on par with Josh Allen but with more consistent pocket management and smarter pass placement than Allen had in college? Until Richardson came along, you wouldn’t have dared.
And if that’s not enough, consider that Richardson is one of the most impressive learners on and off the field that his quarterback coach Will Hewlett has seen—including Hewlett’s recent success story, Brock Purdy. The best way to visualize Richardson’s comparison spectrum isn’t a straight line but that of a pyramid with Richardson the top point and the other players’ feeding into his game from either side of the spectrum. He’s a unique amalgamation of player styles.
For those of you who can’t get past the 58 percent completion rate, interceptions, and untimely errors, consider that the nature of Richardson’s errors are more akin to problems that we saw with the likes of Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger. If they were the type of errors linked to Drew Lock, Zach Wilson, and Baker Mayfield, there would be reason for concern.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I take some issue with the bolded. None of those guys had the accuracy problems that you see with Richardson coming into the league. Every other QB listed was well over 60% in their final year, even Drew Lock. Andrew Luck, Mayfield and Wilson were over 70%. By comparison, Richardson was 53.8% last season, not 58%. At least some of the issues are footwork related which can be fixed.
But he's not comparable to any of the guys on that list above. I think the upside is more along the lines of Michael Vick who was 54% coming out and improved to 56% career in the NFL but with lethal running abilities. Josh Allen could be another comp where he was 56% final year and improved 10+ points in completion percentage by year 3 in the NFL. It's possible.
And if you looked at other metrics through the same lens, close is still really far away.
5'10" vs. 6'4"
4.8 vs. 4.4 40 yd dash
53.8% vs. 60% completion percentage
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I read all of that and it gave me pause.
And then I went and watched a ton of his games on YouTube. And I still have reason for concern, all due respect to Matt Waldman.
The evaluation is glowing - he’s Waldman’s QB1, after all.
But his floor is seemingly much lower than Stroud, and possibly Young as well. And he might take time to develop, a luxury not every owner can afford, or has time for.
And worth noting, Matt is very high on Stroud as well, and has Stroud ahead in many areas. Obviously not mobility, but Stroud is a pocket passer, with a little mobility & the ability to glide in the pocket.
A lot of who you rank higher will depend on your tolerance for risk, and your willingness to be patient while/if ARich develops.
And while Stroud is safer, he also seemingly has more upside than a Mac Jones. If looking at both players, Stroud’s upside is something like Joe Burrow, ARich’s is like Cam Newton. But Stroud’s downside is maybe Goff, ARich’s downside is Tim Tebow? Taysom Hill?
If ARich hits, he’s gonna be a FF monster for sure.
ZWK
Footballguy
Having accuracy problems in his first season as a college starter isn't weird. Plenty of good NFL QBs had accuracy problems in their first year starting in college. The weird thing is that he's going to the NFL after only that season, unlike those other QBs who stuck in college longer (usually past when they were initially draft eligible) and had time to develop better accuracy. The NFL already likes Richardson enough to take him in the early first round, so the work on his accuracy isn't going to come while he's in college.
Initial college season completion percentage for Matthew Stafford (52.7%), Philip Rivers (53.7%), Russell Wilson (54.5%), Lamar Jackson (54.7%), Carson Palmer (55.3%), Andrw Luck (56.3%), Patrick Mahomes (56.8%), Joe Burrow (57.8%), Matt Schaub (58.3%), Dak Prescott (58.4%), and Tony Romo (59.0%) averaged 56.1%, which went all the way up to 67.4% in their final season in college (+11.2%). Richardson might've had a similar college career arc if he'd stuck around, which would've made him look much more polished as a prospect, but instead he's off to the NFL now thanks to his other traits and the NFL's eagerness.
Richardson's low completion percentage came in his third season in college, which makes him less comparable to some of those guys (like Stafford & Mahomes) whose inaccuracy came as true freshmen, and had good completion rates in their third season. But a lot of those guys were inaccurate in their second college season or later, and would've had much shakier college statistics if they'd entered the draft as soon as they were eligible (or in some cases even after 4 years).
That shows that it's possible to improve your accuracy a lot from where Richardson is. It doesn't say much about *how likely it is* to improve that much, since this is a set of quarterbacks I picked because they did improve their accuracy a lot & succeed in the NFL.
Initial college season completion percentage for Matthew Stafford (52.7%), Philip Rivers (53.7%), Russell Wilson (54.5%), Lamar Jackson (54.7%), Carson Palmer (55.3%), Andrw Luck (56.3%), Patrick Mahomes (56.8%), Joe Burrow (57.8%), Matt Schaub (58.3%), Dak Prescott (58.4%), and Tony Romo (59.0%) averaged 56.1%, which went all the way up to 67.4% in their final season in college (+11.2%). Richardson might've had a similar college career arc if he'd stuck around, which would've made him look much more polished as a prospect, but instead he's off to the NFL now thanks to his other traits and the NFL's eagerness.
Richardson's low completion percentage came in his third season in college, which makes him less comparable to some of those guys (like Stafford & Mahomes) whose inaccuracy came as true freshmen, and had good completion rates in their third season. But a lot of those guys were inaccurate in their second college season or later, and would've had much shakier college statistics if they'd entered the draft as soon as they were eligible (or in some cases even after 4 years).
That shows that it's possible to improve your accuracy a lot from where Richardson is. It doesn't say much about *how likely it is* to improve that much, since this is a set of quarterbacks I picked because they did improve their accuracy a lot & succeed in the NFL.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
53.8, not 58. However, if he’s on the field he will be very good in fantasy because of his legs.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Probably good for the opposing defense fantasy too.
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