Still safe enough to be drafted within the top 15 overall players. Yes- there is risk, but you can’t realistically name 15 better ppr players than Kamara right now.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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jwb
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
jwb
Footballguy
I dunno... it seems like if you want the 1.01, you're going to have to really go get it this year. We weren't in negotiations - that was the opening offer. There's no counter on my end, of course, because it's very fair. He might be thinking I might balk at just OBJ due to knucklehead factor (a valid thought), or holdout or QB issues. So he adds the 1.08 to make any hemming and hawing go away.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If i have to pay that for the #1, then oh well, i guess i just wont have the #1 this year. Seems like a bad play
Concept Coop
Footballguy
An overachieving rookie season is only overachieving after the fact, and with the benefit of hindsight. A productive rookie season is a huge data point, and does in fact correlate with productive careers, especially when a guy looks special. I'm not sure I buy a market inefficiency regarding 2nd year players, based on my experience.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
At the end of the day, we're all making a call on his talent level. If you think you need to worry about his situation, that speaks to your evaluation of him, just as my lack of concern speaks to mine. My argument was never that he's going to average X YPC and X TD% moving forward. My argument was that he's special. The numbers are valuable to me because they match what I saw on my TV screen. If you didn't see it that way, if the numbers didn't match what you saw, then of course you're going to take them with a grain of salt.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I consider bad case scenarios for all players.
At some point if I can get more for the player than I think they are actually worth I consider those options. You may be right that Kamara is special, but to me there are a lot of very good special players and if I can get two for just Kamara I think about doing it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you're right to consider potential negative outcomes, certainly. And I'd certainly recommend trading any and every player when the price is right.
This is not directed specifically to you, but... Nobody here has argued that Kamara is going to average X YPC or score every X touches year after year. If you need to start doing re-draft like projections for a hypothetical situation a year or two from now--he's probably not your guy, and that's totally fine.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well yeah I try to do at least a quick projection for every player over the next 2-3 seasons no matter what stage of their career they are at. I do this before making any trade, considering the players in the offer, as well as the other players I have rostered and where I see that going.
Going into the second season is always the hardest one, as rookie seasons are often unlike the rest of the players career.
I am not as high on Kamara as I think some are so I would likely be more willing to deal him away, but I would still be looking for a great return as I am hearing some valuing him as a top 5 RB.
I even think Kamara could live up to that value. But if I can a similar deal as being discussed for the 2018 1.01 rookie pick, then yeah I am going to consider doing that.
Where I do have Kamara I got him cheaply and I am not attached to him the way I am some players.
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
I was just offered Kareem Hunt and Golden Gate for the 1.01.
ETA I turned it down.
ETA I turned it down.
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Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Sorry I should have clarified. I meant overachieving in the sense that they weren't expected to produce immediately to the point where they were drafted high (first 3 rounds) in redraft as well.
Regardless, you can take the word "overachieving" out and just apply it to all rookies (my definition above only eliminates a few guys anyway) and the point still applies exactly the same. These guys are just as likely to bust as the top rookies (if not more, especially if we limit it to the truly elite rookie prospects like Barkley) but that part gets baked into the rookies' value but not the 2nd year guys. These guys aren't "proven", Kamara included.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
actually got what I consider a somewhat reasonable offer for the 1.01. I give Corey Davis, the 1.05 and the 1.10 for the 1.01. Still more than I wanna pay but I think its in the ballpark of Barkleys value.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Don't think youre getting either personally. Be surprised if you could pull any 1st for Dez. Ingram is tougher to call. In season this past year you may have gotten a top 5 pick for Ingram from a contender. Offseason I think youd struggle with anything higher than the 1.08-1.10.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I dont think youre wrong about Dez, If i wanted anything in the middle of the round id prolly have to add something and im not sure I wanna do that, but dont want to start off negotiating for a 2nd to start things off either.
Ingram is likely not going to get moved, I feel like his value to my starting lineup vs his market value doesnt match up and my return would net a lot less points overall. The more I think about it, the more idk if id want to trade him straight up for anyone past guice, and barkley, and maybe Chubb. But nobody is giving me the 1.04-7 probably either, so idk how to approach it. He is sorta in a spot like McCoy was a couple years ago, and even last year where people are saying "well he was pretty good last year, but he is getting older and we dont know what to expect" so his off season value was all over the place 2 years ago (shady that is). So some people got value, and some people missed out. Some sold too light, some asked for too much, got stuck with him and it panned out.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I agree that sounds like right about the going rate, not sure whether it is right to make the deal but based on what the 1.1 owners want right now it isn't an overpay
Andrew74
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Speaking of Dez, I sent an offer of 2.04 and Cam Meredith, and he countered with my 1.04 and Devalve. Needless to say we were way off. I bet there are some owners that might pay that late 1st type of price, but it's going to be rare to find them.
joey
Footballguy
I jump at the chance to grab a potential stud for 3 dart throws. Davis was the 1.5 pick or lower in both of my non-ppr drafts last year, so to me it's 2 1.5's and a 1.10. No brainer trade to move up to the 1.1 imo. I'd rather build with a strong core of studs and fill out the rest later. Heck, I bet if I checked, my 2nd rounders have hit as often as my late 1st rounders, so the 1.10 doesn't even play into the equation for me.
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jwb
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
And how are you feeling about Davis now?
Not saying you should give up so quickly, but I think Davis and Tenn O aren't looking like a slam dunk 1.1 production, so I'd prefer to cash him into the next hopeful slam dunk 1.1 production from Barkley.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for clarifying. I'm not quite sure I fully understand what you're saying though. Taking names out of it--Barkley's a special case--are you suggesting that a productive rookie season doesn't make a prospect any less likely to bust than a rookie?FreeBaGeL said:
I'm confident that a player is much less likely to bust after flashing during their rookie season. Plenty of backs who rush for 1,000 yards as a rookie, for example, will go on to bust. But they will bust at a much lower rate than a generic rookie. Do we disagree there?
Edit: So maybe Kamara isn't proven, per se, but he's a lot more proven, and thus safer, than a rookie. (And I'd totally make an exception for Barkley here. I don't think he's as safe as Kamara, but will concede that he's as safe as it gets for a prospect.)
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you're about right. I'd go ~1.12 for Dez and ~1.07 for Ingram.Pwingles said:
Name value is rarely worth the price paid, but does offer a bit of a buffer. For whatever reason, it's a lot easier to sell Dez right now than it is Jones, Tate, and Crabtree--all of whom have scored a lot more points than Dez over the last 2 seasons.Zyphros said:
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I would not give a first for Dez. He did not look good at all this year and sometimes the body just gives out. I'd buy Jones, Tate and Crabtree before Dez, but not pay a 1st
Ingram to me is worth a late first in the 1.10-1.12 range (age and Kamara). I did trade my 1st and a 2nd for Ingram in a PPR league after Week 7 figuring I would get 2.5 years out of him. Helped me win the league. Now for 2 years, his price is a little less.
Ingram to me is worth a late first in the 1.10-1.12 range (age and Kamara). I did trade my 1st and a 2nd for Ingram in a PPR league after Week 7 figuring I would get 2.5 years out of him. Helped me win the league. Now for 2 years, his price is a little less.
The best case scenario for Dez is to leave Dallas. He and Dak, despite all claims to the contrary, have zero chemistry. Couple that with an inordinately high number of drops and this is a recipe for disaster. I think, physically, he is in better shape that he is being given credit for and still has gas left in the tank but desperately needs to move on.
Baking this into the equation, I would move a late first for Dez if I were a contending team. I don't have his historical drop rate in front of me, but believe this season is a statistical outlier.
Baking this into the equation, I would move a late first for Dez if I were a contending team. I don't have his historical drop rate in front of me, but believe this season is a statistical outlier.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Just for the sake of argument, say Barkley disappoints as a rookie. How much does he drop if he just isn't productive?
Did the same this year and completely agree.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
i dunno about free fall
mixon had a lot of issues pre draft, was still expected to be a stud, largely wasnt, and people are still pretty high on him
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I'd look at Corey Davis this year, he isn't worth what he was last year, was more or less 1.1 ppr rookie. I bet startup ADP will be down maybe 20-25 spots for him. So even if disappoints I could see Barkley having late 3rd rd startup value maybe?? but depends if it is injury related, sucky offense related, or he just stinks
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think you may be right about Ingram being a hold. He is at a point of his career where people do not want to pay what he is worth to keep.Pwingles said:
Aside from the age people will look at Kamara and some may think Ingrams opportunity will decrease with Kamaras increasing. That is something McCoy didn't have against him.
The Saints have shown this year and previously that their offense can support more than one good RB for fantasy, but it is a legit question mark that hurts Ingrams overall value.
Ingrams track record with Sean Payton is I think a negative also. However I could see the Saints possibly dealing Ingram to another team, and if they do it might improve Ingrams outlook. So perhaps a reason to hang on to him as well.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Gurley > BarkleyAndrew74 said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I disagree.joey said:
I would rather have Barley than Davis I think, but for me it is close. 3 1st round picks for Barkley is too much in my opinion. I would rather have Davis and the picks.
Other than Trent Richardson, of which I'm guilty, I don't think a player has ever had more excuses made for him over a few year run then Dez. I've been saying this for well over a year now, it's him, not his health or supporting cast. He is a shell of himself and he's not returning from this.
I strongly believe he has lost a ton of physical ability, most notably his speed. I hate saying this next part because he can't help it so I'll put this in as nice a way as possible. The major reason I never thought his game would translate well when he lost physical ability was that he is severely lacking in the cerebral part of the game athletes need to rely on as their physical prowess fades. He's just a big name with a small game and only person who will pay anything for him is a big name hunter.
I agree with you in PPR. In non-ppr, I doubt that offer comes close or anyone bothers making it.
1.5 got me Cook in one league this year, it was Mixon in a different league, this 2018 RB class looks about that deep. A RB of that caliber plus Davis plus the 1.10 (which is not a bad pick in PPR) is a high price to pay. If one was a contender one step away, I could see making that deal. But it's unlikely a contender is sitting on Davis + 1.05 so its a moot point. In this scenario, I'd rather try to package the 1.05+1.10 into a move up into the 2~3 range and keep Davis.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Barkley is going for twice what Davis went for though. Id consider top 3 overall to 3rd round a free fall.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think I am somewhere between your view and FreeBaGel view on this.
I agree that the rookie showing that what they did as a player in college translating to the pro level is a huge step forward. That is the main question I have about all rookie players. Will what they did in college transfer to a higher level of competition?
The rookie showing that compared to one who doesn't is a big deal.
That said, it doesn't mean that what the player did as a rookie is sustainable. It also doesn't mean that a rookie who didn't produce in their rookie season is a bust either. Thats why I generally give a rookie 2-3 seasons before I feel completely comfortable with who they are as a player.
To give some recent examples.
Melvin Gordon didn't produce all that well in his rookie season. He did in his second and 3rd seasons though.
Todd Gurley did well as a rookie but then not as good in his second season. Now having his best year in his 3rd season.
Both players have proven to be tier one RB for fantasy in my view over their first 3 seasons. They just took different paths to getting there.
Gordon may have been considered a bust based on his rookie season. Some may have thought Gurley was a one year wonder after his second season.
There are more extreme examples than these. Just sticking to some high profile players. There are examples of a player doing well as a rookie and then fading from relevance every season after that. I think this is more rare than a player doing well as a rookie and going on to have a successful career, but it does happen some times.
On the flip side of this, for RB the rookie season is the worst performing season on average of the first six years of their career (which are the most productive seasons for a RB on average). There are a lot of different reasons for this unrelated to the RBs talent. Injuries, pass protection, sharing time with an incumbent being the main ones, it just generally takes awhile for a player to earn the trust of the coaching staff to get as much opportunity as a rookie as the player will in following seasons.
We cant ever know how things will play out for any rookie player before the fact. It requires a leap of faith, a belief in the player at some point.
The player going into their second season does give you more information at the NFL level to work with. More proven than a rookie who hasn't played in the NFL yet. Still not enough data for me to consider the player proven however, I want two seasons of data to work with and ideally three before I feel comfortable with projections for them.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah standard scoring would change things somewhat.
I am still very high on Davis though. I think I discussed the team and coaching staff perhaps holding his value back in the short term, but I think Davis is capable of being a top 5 WR and that is very valuable, even in standard scoring systems. It just comes down to the TDs more in standard.
You are right that there are scenarios where a person might be willing to pay that, such as a team that is stacked and can afford to overpay a bit. I have paid 3 for one like this for player like Peterson in the past. Some times it makes sense to do it.
A lot of the time it will set a team back too much to give 3 for one like that though.
I agree with your view that I don't see this huge gap between pick 1.01 and say pick 1.05 as I think there are enough quality prospects in the 2018
The main thing I am hearing in this thread is that the 1st overall rookie pick is being over valued.
I think these last few posts about the 1.01 also brings up an interesting topic: how are dynasty teams supposed to rebuild these days?
While not the only way, one of the most common strategies was to blow up your team and focus on positions with longevity i.e. drafting WRs (maybe you have a top young QB or TE in there or some young RB prospects too.) But for the most part, with some exceptions, WRs have been busts to mediocre the vast majority of the last 4~6 or so draft classes. Drafting RB's when you don't have many pieces around them was considered an easy way to get yourself stuck in purgatory with just missing or just making the playoffs and stuck with mid-range picks. I've seen this firsthand in my dynasty leagues over the last 2 years when the teams that got the 1.01 had nothing else and refused to trade the rights to Zeke no matter what was offered. Now they have been getting mid-range picks and have hit there, missed there, and are stuck in purgatory.
I see the same thing this year, where rosters almost totally bare of talent have the rights to Barkley and the price they are wanting is so high they likely aren't going to end up trading that pick. I'm sure someone will say "well its better to have Zeke than trading down and taking Treadwell." However that wasn't the only option open to most of these 1.01 owners when people were offering a lot to get those picks.
While not the only way, one of the most common strategies was to blow up your team and focus on positions with longevity i.e. drafting WRs (maybe you have a top young QB or TE in there or some young RB prospects too.) But for the most part, with some exceptions, WRs have been busts to mediocre the vast majority of the last 4~6 or so draft classes. Drafting RB's when you don't have many pieces around them was considered an easy way to get yourself stuck in purgatory with just missing or just making the playoffs and stuck with mid-range picks. I've seen this firsthand in my dynasty leagues over the last 2 years when the teams that got the 1.01 had nothing else and refused to trade the rights to Zeke no matter what was offered. Now they have been getting mid-range picks and have hit there, missed there, and are stuck in purgatory.
I see the same thing this year, where rosters almost totally bare of talent have the rights to Barkley and the price they are wanting is so high they likely aren't going to end up trading that pick. I'm sure someone will say "well its better to have Zeke than trading down and taking Treadwell." However that wasn't the only option open to most of these 1.01 owners when people were offering a lot to get those picks.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Got a counter. 1.01 for Corey Davis, the 1.05 and 1.16. ppr 16 teams. Thinking on it, still seems rich.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I still have the view that you want to build your team around good young WR first and try to add RB talent as the last pieces of the puzzle. For building, not just rebuilding.
I have seen some people blow up their roster and have success with their new pieces quickly, but I think that is more the exception than the rule. I have seen more teams blow it up and end up not having a whole lot to show for it after their moves and putting themselves in a perpetual rebuild as a result of it.
Recent years haven't been as good at WR making this overall philosophy less successful. However if you loaded up on WR in 2014 you did very well with that approach.
As I have talked about before, the NFL does seem to be shifting away from the peak of WR scoring the last couple seasons. I do want to do a bit more research on this, but I still see the overall trend of passing being up. This season teams threw the ball to RB and TE a lot more than they have in previous years however. Defenses are changing and there has been a lot of great defensive talent entering the league the last few years that is setting up more teams to be able to deal with the 11 personnel and spread offenses now than they were say 5 years ago.
There are a lot of moving parts to consider here, but overall I still see the trend of passing going up, and therefore WR perhaps being under valued relative to RBs right now.
I have seen some people blow up their roster and have success with their new pieces quickly, but I think that is more the exception than the rule. I have seen more teams blow it up and end up not having a whole lot to show for it after their moves and putting themselves in a perpetual rebuild as a result of it.
Recent years haven't been as good at WR making this overall philosophy less successful. However if you loaded up on WR in 2014 you did very well with that approach.
As I have talked about before, the NFL does seem to be shifting away from the peak of WR scoring the last couple seasons. I do want to do a bit more research on this, but I still see the overall trend of passing being up. This season teams threw the ball to RB and TE a lot more than they have in previous years however. Defenses are changing and there has been a lot of great defensive talent entering the league the last few years that is setting up more teams to be able to deal with the 11 personnel and spread offenses now than they were say 5 years ago.
There are a lot of moving parts to consider here, but overall I still see the trend of passing going up, and therefore WR perhaps being under valued relative to RBs right now.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Good discussion. The key to a rebuild has always been to get elite players, regardless of position. The issue with RB is reduced with a guy like Zeke because he was 21 going into the league. If I had an empty roster 2 years ago the only players I would have traded for Zeke would be OBJ and Evans, unless I'm forgetting someone.
I disagree with the assertion you can't build with mid range picks or that this purgatory even exists. At some point you gotta make picks or do deals. The 1.7 pick last year could have been Hunt or Kamara. Purgatory is usually due to apathy not opportunity.
