flapgreen
Footballguy
Barkley runs like a #####, but has outstanding talent and measurables. I'm not as high on him as almost everyone else seems to be.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Thanks for the Williams-jones thoughts. Anyone feel the ypc difference could also be the difference between playing with Rodgers vs Hundley at qb? I thought Williams played well last year, just got off to a slow start due to injury. I worry the packers may add a back but it could easily be a late back with so many other needs. High powered offense is always a good place for a rb, even if they aren’t the most talented in the league.
This is the correct answer. I know everybody wants the burner, but people seem to forget that Jones' 40 time was only 0.03 seconds faster than Williams. And as much as everyone loves Dalvin Cook, Williams outscored him in the burst and agility scores. Don't get me wrong, Williams' combine was bad which hurt his draft stock (similarly, it's probably what cost Dalvin a 1st round grade), but for those that watched the games, he was doing what Green Bay needs out of their RB:
1) Pass blocking
2) Breaking tackles to convert the tough yards
3) Catching passes as the safety valve
They've got Aaron Rodgers. They aren't trying to win by breaking big plays on the ground. They will win through the air by keeping Rodgers clean and converting short yardage runs to keep drives alive.
While Williams doesn't have a high BMI, he plays big. He initiates contact and runs through tacklers. To me, he's got Lacy-like potential in GB. It won't be pretty all the time, but the points will stack up. The main question about him was how he'd fare as a receiver. I think he put that question to rest last season (25-262-2). He's got a true 3-downs skill set.
My main concern with Williams in dynasty is that GB may not pick him up after his rookie contract. But I'll settle for 3 years of him playing with Rodgers, and then whatever happens after that is gravy.
His game speed doesn't look slow.
Also I believe Jones had a 46 or 48 yard TD in which he basically just ran straight. It was one of those luck of the draw plays (no pun intended). Anyone else would've scored on that play, too. But yeah, teams were stacking the box when Hundley came in. Things will be very different for Williams in 2018 with Rodgers behind center.
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Disclaimer: Waldman sold me on Williams before the NFL draft. I like Jones, too, but like Williams fit in GB much better.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How do you value the 1.02 in relation to Kareem Hunt?
I was surprised to find many in the Trades thread value the 1.02 on par with Hunt, and was hoping to expand the sample size and discussion here.
I would need a pick in the 1.07 range to downgrade from Hunt to the 1.02, personally, and would only do so if I needed the depth.
I was surprised to find many in the Trades thread value the 1.02 on par with Hunt, and was hoping to expand the sample size and discussion here.
I would need a pick in the 1.07 range to downgrade from Hunt to the 1.02, personally, and would only do so if I needed the depth.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
I prefer Hunt over my 1.02 (Guice) with probably an early-mid 2nd difference.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Guice. It all depends where he lands. They could be even if he lands in a good spot or it maight not even be Guice anymore depending on the draft. But what we know right now i see the difference as a late 1st- early 2nd.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I made an offer for Jimmy Graham in an FFPC league, he countered with my 1.04, and Eifert for his Jimmy and a '19 2nd. I thought it was way too much, so I brought it here to discuss. Even though his landing spot is juicy, does he really have enough left in the tank to give up the youth like that?
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Heck no. I wouldn't give that for three Jimmys.
Edit: If it's 1.5 PPR, I've not played in those before so pardon me if I'm off the mark here. Still don't see any way to justify 1.04.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
FFPC is 1.5 for TE, right? Even so, too much for me. I think his floor is really high in the GB offense, but his ceiling isn't what it was in NO. I don't currently play 1.5, so I won't get into it more than that. But in my standard PPR leagues, Jimmy is a big sell for me, and I'd be hoping for a pick in the 1.08-1.10 range.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Pretty much my thoughts exactly. I'd say he has around 2 years of elite production left but even then that's a really tight window to win now. Especially since my team is young all over and set up for longevity. Was just checking to see if I wasn't crazy for thinking that was too much.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would feel bad asking for 1.10 even (assuming no TE bonus). I think an early 2nd is fair though. Maybe if he comes out hot you can get a 1st. Planning an offer based on getting OJ Howard from a GB fan.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes on 1.5 for FFPC. I agree that he won't have the ceiling that he had in NO, in that he won't hit it as often as he did in NO. But I still think he will have monster games in GB and is probably a top 5 TE until proven otherwise. But I can't imagine anyone paying 1.04 for him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's fair. I just feel like we've been consistently disappointed by the TE production in GB the last decade or so. I think his utilization and production ends up being closer to his SEA stint than NO.
kutta
Footballguy
He was TE 6 last year in PPR leagues in Seattle where he was criminally under-used. He was TE 1 or TE 2 in NO for a couple years if memory serves me right. I could easily see him as TE 3, 4, or 5 this year.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
No way I’m giving up a premium rookie pick for Jimmy Graham at his age.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
GB has traditionally misused TEs even worse than Seattle did.
Maybe Graham will be different, but we've thought that every year. I'm anticipating similar numbers for Graham to what he had in Seattle. Generally GB TEs haven't been any better in GB than they've been elsewhere, and have actually usually been worse.
The one wildcard is them moving on from Jordy, so there may be more targets available for the TE than usual since they normally have two WRs out wide getting lots of looks.
As a Guice fan, I see them as about equal, but landing spot will probably shift this in one direction or another. And I know I'm in a tiny majority, but I'm of the opinion that Spencer Ware will cut into Hunt's touches/snaps enough to make a noticeable difference in fantasy points. But again, I know everyone thinks Ware is a JAG and will make zero impact. I'm just not that confident. FWIW, I own zero shares of Guice, Hunt, and Ware.
Jimmy's days of being elite are over. Rodgers might be able to coax some fantasy points out of him, but JG is in decline. I'm amazed he was able to come back from that knee injury, but it seems to have shortened his shelf life. I will probably even be avoiding him in redraft as I'm sure this landing spot will spike his value.
Same. If he got same usage he got in SEA I think he'd be the most heavily utilized TE of Rodgers era. Which it's fair to point out he is arguably the best TE of the Rodgers era but I personally don't think at this stage of his career he is better than Finley and Finley maxed at 92 targets in a season. Even if you start playing with Finley's missed games and projecting out a full season it leaves you in that 90-100 target range. In Seattle Graham has seen 95 targets the last two years and was on pace for 108 the year he got hurt. I'm sure some will continue to think Graham's talent will buck this trend of TE usage in GB, but I'm going to be working off 90-100 target range when I look at Graham for 2018. Which combined with his durability and QB he seems like a top 10 lock, but I don't see Saint Jimmy or overly high upside.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Guice, and actually think Hunt is a good comp for him as a runner. Both are extremely physical, win with contact balance, and are quicker than fast. Guice does have an extra gear in the open field, while Hunt has better vision. The gap between them as prospects is purely a result of their status coming out of high school. Had Hunt suited up for a big program, and his talent translated (as it did to the NFL level, this seems like a very safe assumption) we're looking at a fringe first round pick, just like Guice.
Here's where I need a mid-first to downgrade: A) Leading the league in rushing yards and forced missed tackles, making the pro-bowl, and finishing as RB5 has to mean something. He's obviously more proven and has shown us a top 5 ceiling (at least). B) He caught 50+ plus balls. True 3 down backs are rare and it's quite a leap to pencil that utilization in for Guice right now. In PPR formats, that's a few points a game.
Similar prospects; one is more proven and is better out of the backfield.
I'll grant you Ware, but would be very surprised if Guice is drafted to a team with less competition for touches than Hunt. Hunt will lose rest touches, as everyone but Gurley, Zeke, Bell and DJ do, while Guice will be losing the PPR money downs too.
Edit: typos.
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kutta
Footballguy
You don't think the departure of Jordy will open up more targets and red zone opportunities than Finley had?
Red zone sure, but Graham had 10 TD's last year so I don't see that going up.
Total targets? No. I got Cobb and Adams being the main target guys, getting just as much if not more use then top WR's got during Finley's run.
One other thing to consider is that most people seem to think the KC offense is not going to skip a beat going from Alex Smith's bizarre career year (it was fantastic and totally out of character) to Mahomes first year as a starter. So even if Ware is a nonfactor, the offense could implode or at least take a step (or three) backwards. I tend to trust Andy Reid's talent assessment, but it should still be a concern if you are buying (or holding in the face of a seemingly fair trade) Hunt.
I'm with you on trusting proven talent over the unknown, but I read (could be faulty info) that Hunt's pass blocking was still an issue last year, so I'm not sure he qualifies as a 3 down back yet - which is where I think Ware could step in and hurt him. This could be kind of a Martin-Sims 2015 type combo (except Andy Reid so less rushes to go around).
If I owned Guice I'd like to see him go to the Colts or Bucs where there is basically no competition, but if I don't have any shares of Guice, I'd be rooting for somewhere with more competition.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You make a couple really good points--it's not safe to assume the KC offense keeps rolling at its 2017 pace, and Hunt's pass protection does need work.
I would argue that, despite some likely regression, KC is still a high end situation for a RB, especially with Andy calling for more targets for Hunt. And Guice's pass protection is suspect as well (but I do expect him to improve in that area with some NFL coaching; it clearly wasn't a priority for LSU staff).
I don't think we disagree too much on Guice and Hunt in a vacuum, I'm just putting more premium on the sure thing.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think Ware is better tha JAG level but I don’t see how he cuts into Hunt’s usuage significantly. He’s similar in style but not nearly as explosive and not as good in the passing game. I don’t see anything he does better than Hunt. He’ll spell him, sure - but no RB is seeing every snap.
I think the biggest threat to Hunt is a Andy Reid’s propensity to abandon the run.
Ware is good in the pass game and a better pass protector than Hunt. He's also good in short yardage. Maybe this will be a Mathews-Tolbert type of split :X
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In fairness, Guice is a pretty good horse to hitch your wagon to. It doesn’t take much imagination to see his career surpassing Hunts. Hunt is just safer right now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He’s ok in pass protection but inferior as a pass catcher. Hunt has some Bell qualities in that he can split out and run routes.
Ware is good in short yardage but no better than Hunt.
Worrying about Ware hurting Hunt’s value seems misguided and worrying just for the sake of worrying.
Ware flashed early for the Chiefs and faded pretty quickly. Reid has almost never been a RBBC guy and Hunt showed him no reason to change that last year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think your points are fair, and "safe" is relative. Earlier in this thread (or another nearby) I posted the last 15 years of players who were drafted outside of round 1 and put up 1000+ yards as a rookie. They were all as "proven" as Hunt and the hit rate was atrocious.
Analytically I don't think there's any advantage to a non-1st round RB that is coming off a 1000+ yard rookie season against a 1st round RB just entering the league. If anything I think the hit rate may be higher for the latter category, which in this discussion would be Guice.
Personally, I really like the way Hunt runs and I am very high on him. He is a savvy runner instinctually, he has uber powerful tree trunk legs (my favorite thing in a RB), and is playing for a coach that historically gets good production out of his lead back. Those things are more important to me than any notion that he is more "proven".
Hopefully I won't blow it by going against the analytics on this one, but I prefer Hunt by quite a bit to Guice for those reasons. Guice has a similar style which I like, but his vision/instincts and situation are obvioiusly both still big question marks.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Guice is going in the 2nd as much, if not more than he is in the first in recent mocks.
I also think your case study could use some additional parameters. Hunt did a lot more than run for 1,000 yards and was a 3rd round pick in a once a decade RB class. I do think the narrative has value and is really interesting to look at and consider, ftr.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
There were also a record number of DBs taken in the 1st and 2nd if I remember right.
Are you basing these statements on some stats I'm not aware of? I mean, it's a small sample but Ware is averaging over 10 YPR for his career. So I'm not as confident that Hunt is as good or better than Ware at these things just yet. But does it really matter? Tolbert was better than Mathews at nothing. Sims is the epitome of the JAG label. Yet coaches for whatever reason decided to give them valuable (to fantasy) touches. And again, what should probably be the most concerning thing is the drop off from Alex Smith's bizarre 2017 production to Mahomes first year.
I don't own Hunt so I'm not worrying just to worry. If I was doing a startup, I think I saw someone mention that Hunt is going 1.11 while Guice is 3.03. Given that disparity, I'd gladly take Guice. If we're talking (hypothetically since I don't own either player or the 1.02) about a straight up trade, I'd need to see where Guice lands. If we're talking 1.02 then I'd probably lean towards taking the pick and hoping Guice or Chubb lands in an ideal spot (or I can flip it later for a bigger haul than I could get for Hunt now).
And FWIW, Ware didn't really flash nor fade quickly. He played half a season at 5.0 ypc and faded (3.7 ypc) in the 2nd half. These weird splits have happened to even the best of players. I don't think that means Ware is doomed to repeat the 2nd half of the 2016 season for the rest of his career any more than it means he's going to be a 5.0 ypc player for the rest of his career. He's shown some legit NFL talent as shown by his 4.6 ypc over his 289 carry career.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I agree with Guice, but a very good point was made in that thread that this isn't just a trade for Guice, it's for anyone you want at 1.02. So if Guice goes somewhere crappy you can just take someone else, or heck trade back and get Guice at 5. I like this little built-in insurance policy. Worst case it's the guy you expected, but maybe it's a little nicer than that. It also gets you that much closer to 1.01 in case that owner has lost his mind and wants to trade it cheap. Obviously if I can get 1.02 + for Hunt I will, but as a guy that wants off the Reid train I think I'd probably snap that up now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hunt has more market value according to ADP. You're much more likely to turn him into Barkley than the 1.02. And I don't agree that the 1.02 is safer. Guice is the only guy within range. If you're taking Chubb or Jones over Hunt, even in great situations, I don't know what to say. Maybe Michel, but he's older than Hunt - so why?Hankmoody said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm basing my assessment on watching them play - Ware breaking off a long run after a reception doesn't make him a better receiver. 39 career receptions is not really worth discussing - one catch wide open in the flat with no one in front of him for a long TD (I saw it happen) has too much impact on his ypc.FF Ninja said:
I'm going to bow out of this discussion because there's no basis to bring up Charles Sims and Mike Tolbert - other than trying to find other situations where an inferior talent hurt another RBs fantasy value. It seems irrelevant here, especially since that has not been Reid's past M.O. before. Like I said, he surely has a tendency to abandon the run during the course of a game, but he didn't bench guys like McCoy or Charles for other lesser backs often. On that basis I could sit here and say that Fitzgerald Touissant will really cut into LeVeon Bell's fantasy value next offseason if Mike Tomlin decides to use him more in the passing game and at the goal-line. What's the point?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Because I want off the Andy Reid train while the value is highest. I don't trust he'll stick to Hunt and now there's a new QB starting that we know nothing about. That offense could grind to a halt (in which case I'd be buying back in cheap haha) under Mahomes. We knew Smith would get first downs, move the chains, keep Hunt on the field. We also knew West was no threat and they had no one else on the roster to take snaps. I don't think Ware is a threat, but I don't have any confidence Reid doesn't think he is. That guy could screw up an icepick.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
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Again, you're ignoring the likely drop off in QB play that will hurt Hunt regardless of Ware's presence. And I'm not trying to say Ware is definitely better than Hunt at pass catching or goal line conversions - just that he's pretty good at it and will likely earn himself some reps. And the pass protection could come into play for 2-minute drill situations, which are very valuable for fantasy owners.
Hunt had 87% of KC's RB carries, 59% of the receptions, and 73% of the rushing TDs. Even if the KC offense rolls right along (probably won't), I'm betting those numbers all slip.
If you want to ignore the red flags, go for it. I'm not trying to say Hunt is doomed. Far from it. Just saying there are legitimate reasons why someone would consider selling high right now. And if I owned him, I'd certainly be exploring my options.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I have, and that's why I want out. He pumped up Ware last year then proceeded to blow that. He made owning Jamaal Charles painful - and that's hard to do. Hunt's value is about as high as it's going to get and there are plenty of ways that can drop as well - starting in about 6 weeks at the draft. I'd rather cash out now while he's hot and get something else of equal value that I trust more.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm confused. He made the undersized Charles a bell cow, 3 down back, and gave him the GL work. He didn't pump up Ware; he didn't even draft Ware and was never really committed to him.
Personally, I can't think of many coaches I'd prefer my talented backs to play for. To each their own.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Um no......ware is depth...thats it...FF Ninja said:
Blick
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Reid traded up to get Hunt. Hunt dominated. I thought the last two RBs Reid went after were Charles and Westbrook. Ware is alright and I'm sure Reid has said good things about him, but this is Hunt's backfield and I don't see them drafting anyone early enough for it to matter.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Ware is no threat at all with Reid as the coach. Very close to zero. He’s perfect because he probably stops them from drafting a good rb that may eat into the touches. And I own zero shares of Hunt.
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