Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)

[voiceofunreason]

Where do people view Amari Cooper?  It's probably a wide range from people who still believe, and people who just want to give up on him.  I've tried to send out a bunch of offers, it just seems that nobody wants to buy.  He likely needs a good week to even retain a little bit of value, but what value is that?  I know I wouldn't buy for a early-mid 1st, but maybe late if the situation is right.  How is everyone else feeling?  

Gonna take a lot more than one week. Personally I don’t want anything to do with him and it seems most people who own him are holding and praying. 

 

[Elevencents]

Where do people view Amari Cooper?  It's probably a wide range from people who still believe, and people who just want to give up on him.  I've tried to send out a bunch of offers, it just seems that nobody wants to buy.  He likely needs a good week to even retain a little bit of value, but what value is that?  I know I wouldn't buy for a early-mid 1st, but maybe late if the situation is right.  How is everyone else feeling?  

Only thing that saves his career is a change of location imo. I wouldn’t give a bag of peanuts for him. 

 

[RushHour]

So is Freeman more of a buy at this point?

There's no way I'd buy Freeman at this point. He's a huge risk. 

I suppose if you're into 'value' and buy lows he might be worth the risk if you're not giving up much but I'm personally not into buying declining assets. I know I'm in the minority but I wouldn't pay a first rounder for him. 

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Where do people view Amari Cooper?  It's probably a wide range from people who still believe, and people who just want to give up on him.  I've tried to send out a bunch of offers, it just seems that nobody wants to buy.  He likely needs a good week to even retain a little bit of value, but what value is that?  I know I wouldn't buy for a early-mid 1st, but maybe late if the situation is right.  How is everyone else feeling?  

As a WR that'll go far higher than I'll take him whether it's weekly or best ball league.

There's no getting around that the guy has regressed. I really don't think he'll get used better than Gruden is using him now.  

 

[FF Ninja]

So... Goff or Mahomes?

Have they both passed Watson on everyone's rankings?

 

[kutta]

So... Goff or Mahomes?

Have they both passed Watson on everyone's rankings?

I think I’d take Mahomes over Goff and both over Watson. But I’m very fickle.

 

[Milkman]

So where are we ranking the following players who have had hot starts to the season in dynasty?

Thielen - On pace for an insane 160-1800-8 season.

Cooks - Is he a top 5 WR in dynasty? He's still not 25 and looks to have landed in the perfect spot for his skill set. 

Goff- This tear started the second half of last year. 

 

[ILUVBEER99]

So where are we ranking the following players who have had hot starts to the season in dynasty?

Thielen - On pace for an insane 160-1800-8 season.

Cooks - Is he a top 5 WR in dynasty? He's still not 25 and looks to have landed in the perfect spot for his skill ser. 

Goff- This tear started the second half of last year. 

Thielen and Cooks are easier comps since they play same position.  Both are great but i'd probably side with Theilen, and i say that as someone who doubted him. Thielen can do it all and has great rapport with Cousins.  Cooks is awesome too so almost splitting hairs.

QB's are generally valued less than RB/WR position even in dynasty.  I love Goff though and think he's Rodgers 2.0.  Having a guy like that for 10+ years is very nice in dynasty.  So many dynasty teams are ok with flip flopping QB's every season but never have that true stud.

All that said in dynasty i'd rank them as follows.

Goff

Thielen

Cooks

All 3 are great assets.

 

[Milkman]

So where are we ranking the following players who have had hot starts to the season in dynasty?

Thielen - On pace for an insane 160-1800-8 season.

Cooks - Is he a top 5 WR in dynasty? He's still not 25 and looks to have landed in the perfect spot for his skill set. 

Goff- This tear started the second half of last year. 

Sorry i must have worded this wrong. What i meant is what positional ranking would you give these three players in a PPR/all tds 6 points dynasty league. 

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Sorry i must have worded this wrong. What i meant is what positional ranking would you give these three players in a PPR/all tds 6 points dynasty league. 

Cooks and Theilen bottom part of top 10-12 dynasty WR's

Goff top 3 dynasty QB.

 

[Mark Football]

I think I’d take Mahomes over Goff and both over Watson. But I’m very fickle.

For a kicker, I'd saddle up and ride Fickle to a.......wait, wrong player thread.....

 

[kittenmittens]

Price check on Christian McCaffrey?

Late 1st/Early 2nd startup pick?

 

[tangfoot]

Price check on Christian McCaffrey?

Late 1st/Early 2nd startup pick?

Depends how many teams are in your league.

Wouldn’t it be easier to say #10-18 overall?

 

[Zyphros]

Price check on Christian McCaffrey?

Late 1st/Early 2nd startup pick?

He's a discount Kamara honestly.  And that discount is about 5% at most.  I'd still put him 15-24 probably like he was before and let someone else win/lose with him if he over/under achieves based on that though.  I think people just view him a little unsafe with Cam vulturing TD's all the time.  Still super productive (especially in full ppr), but there is a lower floor than others because of Cam.  

 

[King of the Jungle]

Price check on Christian McCaffrey?

Late 1st/Early 2nd startup pick?

I would put him firmly in the late first. His high floor is nice to have (ppr) and has big upside when he finds the end zone or runs like he did last game against Cincy.

 

[Mark Football]

Price check on Christian McCaffrey?

Late 1st/Early 2nd startup pick?

I may be too high on McCaffrey but the sky is the limit for this guy. If you can get 14 catches one game then 28 carries the next at a 6.5 ypc clip, in a PPR you can't be stopped. I wouldn't trade this guy for 1.1 this year no way. Maybe not even 2 #1's. I have him ranked as the  #4 RB behind Gurley Kamara and Barkley.

 

[kutta]

I may be too high on McCaffrey but the sky is the limit for this guy. If you can get 14 catches one game then 28 carries the next at a 6.5 ypc clip, in a PPR you can't be stopped. I wouldn't trade this guy for 1.1 this year no way. Maybe not even 2 #1's. I have him ranked as the  #4 RB behind Gurley Kamara and Barkley.

May?

 

[Shrugs]

What do you guys think of the value of Godwin compared to Gollaway? Gollaway has clearer path to being No 1 in offense, but Godwin two years younger. He's still just 22!

 

[FF Ninja]

What do you guys think of the value of Godwin compared to Gollaway? Gollaway has clearer path to being No 1 in offense, but Godwin two years younger. He's still just 22!

Godwin>Golladay

 

[jm192]

I think Golloday looks like a legit WR1 in the making.  Godwin looks very good, but Golloday screams star.

 

[Mark Football]

May?

Lol....we'll see I guess.

 

[jm192]

Long term value of Alex Collins?  Looks like he is very talented when he touches the ball, but they don't like him enough to commit to giving him the ball.  Wouldn't be surprised if they get someone in the draft or via FA in the near future.  

Considering trying to move him for someone like Aaron Jones

 

[FF Ninja]

I think Golloday looks like a legit WR1 in the making.  Godwin looks very good, but Golloday screams star.

He's 25. Not sure how much more there is "in the making" as he's entering his prime right around now. Godwin is a couple years younger and looking just as good.

Long term value of Alex Collins?  Looks like he is very talented when he touches the ball, but they don't like him enough to commit to giving him the ball.  Wouldn't be surprised if they get someone in the draft or via FA in the near future.  

Considering trying to move him for someone like Aaron Jones

It's the fumbles. If the dude can hold onto the ball, he's got a shot to earn a starter's role in free agency (or with his current team now). Buck is a JAG. Dixon might come back week 11, though. Collins better get a grip on the ball before then.

If you sell now, you'd be selling low. Jones is likely a career RBBC guy, so I don't think I'd target him.

 

[DAG]

What are folks doing with DJ? The way I see it, as long as McCoy is there he won't be used properly in the passing game, even as the team claims every week that they want to get him more involved (they've been lining him up in the slot and out wide more but the targets still aren't there). I could see them firing McCoy if the team continues to lose but how likely is that to happen this season with a rookie QB starting?

Rosen is a potential bright spot and might be a boost to DJ's market value in dynasty, but if they don't sort out his usage this season he heads into the 2019 as a 27 year old RB on a young/building offense.

Is he a hold for contenders and a sell for rebuilders? Or a hold or sell more generally speaking?

 

[tangfoot]

Is he a hold for contenders and a sell for rebuilders? Or a hold or sell more generally speaking?

He's a hold because no one is going to pay what he's "worth" to the teams that own him. 

Either they'll be looking at it from the perspective of "I can't sell him for less than I paid" (throwing good money after bad), or they'll be insulted by the attempt to buy him at rock bottom and refuse to consider the deal.

He's not on the trade block in any of my dynasty leagues, his owners are at least savvy enough to wait until he has a big game.

 

[Zyphros]

Godwin>Golladay

wrong 

 

[FF Ninja]

wrong 

Time will tell.

But don't forget Godwin is 2 years younger. He's still improving.

 

[tangfoot]

Time will tell.

But don't forget Godwin is 2 years younger. He's still improving.

You seem to have fallen for the "Golladay isn't improving" fallacy.

 

[FF Ninja]

You seem to have fallen for the "Golladay isn't improving" fallacy.

Nah, that's not what I meant. But he's about to turn 25 which is a WR's prime. Godwin is just 22.

That's not to say WRs don't get better from 25 to 26, but the gap up isn't as distinct as 22 to 23.

 

[tangfoot]

Nah, that's not what I meant. But he's about to turn 25 which is a WR's prime. Godwin is just 22.

That's not to say WRs don't get better from 25 to 26, but the gap up isn't as distinct as 22 to 23.

I haven't done the research, but it was always my understanding that it's an experience thing more than age.  We traditionally heard about the WR 3rd Year Breakout, not the WR 23 Years Old Breakout

 

[FF Ninja]

I haven't done the research, but it was always my understanding that it's an experience thing more than age.  We traditionally heard about the WR 3rd Year Breakout, not the WR 23 Years Old Breakout

3rd year breakout has been disproven about a million times. It's just an old wives' tale at this point. So yeah, we've all heard about it a bunch, but that doesn't make it the truth.

 

[tangfoot]

3rd year breakout has been disproven about a million times. It's just an old wives' tale at this point. So yeah, we've all heard about it a bunch, but that doesn't make it the truth.

In that case, please provide any evidence to back up the claim that WRs improve more drastically from age 22 to 23 than they do from ages 25 to 26.

 

[FF Ninja]

In that case, please provide any evidence to back up the claim that WRs improve more drastically from age 22 to 23 than they do from ages 25 to 26.

I'm not really motivated to prove something I already know to be true. If you don't believe me, how about you research it and see if you can disprove it?

 

[tangfoot]

I'm not really motivated to prove something I already know to be true. If you don't believe me, how about you research it and see if you can disprove it?

So you're just spouting bull####, thanks for clarifying.  Feel free to continue just blatantly making things up, but please stop attempting to pass it off as the truth.

 

[FF Ninja]

So you're just spouting bull####, thanks for clarifying.  Feel free to continue just blatantly making things up, but please stop attempting to pass it off as the truth.

Geez, someone's a little cranky. Just because I don't want to do research for you doesn't mean you have to throw a hissy fit. 

Feel free to not believe me, but I'm not spouting bs. 

 

[tangfoot]

Geez, someone's a little cranky. Just because I don't want to do research for you doesn't mean you have to throw a hissy fit. 

Feel free to not believe me, but I'm not spouting bs. 

You're the one who made an extraordinary claim.  I can just as easily say that my research has shown that the biggest gain in productivity comes when a RB goes from 225 to 275 touches in a season. 

Don't believe me?  Too bad, I know that it's true.  And you can't see my work, neener neener.

 

[FF Ninja]

You're the one who made an extraordinary claim.  I can just as easily say that my research has shown that the biggest gain in productivity comes when a RB goes from 225 to 275 touches in a season. 

Don't believe me?  Too bad, I know that it's true.  And you can't see my work, neener neener.

Yeah, your example is exactly the same as what I did. You got me. I made that up just to mess with random folks on the internet. Thwarted by the great detective, tangfoot. /s

Disclaimer: I have zero shares of Golladay or Godwin. Just trying to save you some detective work before you claim ownership bias on me next. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Laquon better hope you’re wrong....

 

[NeverEnough]

I was offered Kerryon & Mike Evans for my Fournette & Juju. (PPR dynasty)

I think the drop off @ Rb I'd take is not worth the WR upgrade here. Especially since RB is my weak spot & I am strong at WR without Evans.

He initially offered Breida & KJ for Fournette.

 

[FF Ninja]

Laquon better hope you’re wrong....

 But pretty crazy to think Treadwell is 1.6 years younger than Golladay. Golladay and Moncrief are basically the same age (0.3 years difference).

I was offered Kerryon & Mike Evans for my Fournette & Juju. (PPR dynasty)

I think the drop off @ Rb I'd take is not worth the WR upgrade here. Especially since RB is my weak spot & I am strong at WR without Evans.

That's an interesting offer. I'd be very tempted as I like KJ and have concerns about Fournette's ankle holding up long term (in addition to his hamstring this season). Evans is 3 years older than Juju, but now would not be a bad time to sell high on Juju. I know that'll be unpopular, but Ben is on pace for 744 pass attempts and Juju is on pace for 196 targets. Pretty safe to assume the pace slows down for both of them. 

 

[NeverEnough]

 But pretty crazy to think Treadwell is 1.6 years younger than Golladay. Golladay and Moncrief are basically the same age (0.3 years difference).

That's an interesting offer. I'd be very tempted as I like KJ and have concerns about Fournette's ankle holding up long term (in addition to his hamstring this season). Evans is 3 years older than Juju, but now would not be a bad time to sell high on Juju. I know that'll be unpopular, but Ben is on pace for 744 pass attempts and Juju is on pace for 196 targets. Pretty safe to assume the pace slows down for both of them. 

I'm wondering if I should try to counter with Kupp or E. Sanders instead of Juju 1st. Or even maybe ask for a draft pick on top from him....

He initially offered Breida & KJ for Fournette.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm wondering if I should try to counter with Kup or E. Sanders instead of Juju 1st. Or even maybe ask for a draft pick on top from him....

Oh yeah, I'd definitely counter. Just because it's tempting doesn't mean I wouldn't try to tilt the scales a little more. Evans looks back to 2016 form, but his dynasty owners seem jaded so his value is down. Patricia seems content with KJ's meager workload, so he's only got flex value this season. You should be able to work a better deal. At a minimum get some draft capital from him. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Oh yeah, I'd definitely counter. Just because it's tempting doesn't mean I wouldn't try to tilt the scales a little more. Evans looks back to 2016 form, but his dynasty owners seem jaded so his value is down. Patricia seems content with KJ's meager workload, so he's only got flex value this season. You should be able to work a better deal. At a minimum get some draft capital from him. 

Any time I have an offer I like that someone sends I usually counter with that offer plus a 2nd or 3rd, it’s not enough to make them cringe but you can turn that stuff into value

 

[NeverEnough]

Any time I have an offer I like that someone sends I usually counter with that offer plus a 2nd or 3rd, it’s not enough to make them cringe but you can turn that stuff into value

Damn, he only has a 4th next year. He still has his 2020 2nd round pick, though...

 

[Concept Coop]

 I know that'll be unpopular, but Ben is on pace for 744 pass attempts and Juju is on pace for 196 targets. Pretty safe to assume the pace slows down for both of them. 

In dynasty leagues? That feels like redraft logic to me. I mean, if you think he’s overrated as a player, by all means move him. But trying to cash in on a coming dip in targets is getting too cute for my tastes. Owners are buying the player, not his YTD numbers—as they should be.

Juju’s locked into a goldmine of a situation for 2.75 years. He’s super young, very talented, has a strong work ethic, and good head on his shoulders.

If Juju finishes top as a WR1, despite a dip from his current production, he’ll be worth a good deal more than he is today. Remember what Amari Cooper was going for before last season? And Juju will have more production than that.

Juju was EASY money this offseason. But there’s still some meat on that bone if owners think they’re selling high today.

 

[Andrew74]

What are folks doing with DJ? The way I see it, as long as McCoy is there he won't be used properly in the passing game, even as the team claims every week that they want to get him more involved (they've been lining him up in the slot and out wide more but the targets still aren't there). I could see them firing McCoy if the team continues to lose but how likely is that to happen this season with a rookie QB starting?

Rosen is a potential bright spot and might be a boost to DJ's market value in dynasty, but if they don't sort out his usage this season he heads into the 2019 as a 27 year old RB on a young/building offense.

Is he a hold for contenders and a sell for rebuilders? Or a hold or sell more generally speaking?

I inquired in my main dynasty and was told it would take AB + one of my rookie RBs (Guice or Penny) + a 2019 1st.

 

[FF Ninja]

In dynasty leagues? That feels like redraft logic to me. I mean, if you think he’s overrated as a player, by all means move him. But trying to cash in on a coming dip in targets is getting too cute for my tastes. Owners are buying the player, not his YTD numbers—as they should be.

Juju’s locked into a goldmine of a situation for 2.75 years. He’s super young, very talented, has a strong work ethic, and good head on his shoulders.

If Juju finishes top as a WR1, despite a dip from his current production, he’ll be worth a good deal more than he is today. Remember what Amari Cooper was going for before last season? And Juju will have more production than that.

Juju was EASY money this offseason. But there’s still some meat on that bone if owners think they’re selling high today.

No no, you've got it totally backwards. I'm not talking about selling to avoid a dip in targets, I'm talking about selling to take advantage of a huge 4 week target load. The plan would be to capitalize on dynasty owners who have redraft logic. People get caught up in 4 week samples. If you can get 196 expected targets returns for Juju, you're doing well even if he ends up getting 140 targets for the next 3 years. 

I'm not saying dump him for the best offer you can get. I'm just saying test the waters and sell high if possible. Juju is the WR2 on his team. If you can essentially get a WR1 like Evans for him, I think that's a win.

 

[mjb03003]

price check on Matt Breida?

Are people buying him as the RB to own in SF this year and beyond? It's hard to tell if buying now would be buying high or buying low...

 

[Concept Coop]

No no, you've got it totally backwards. I'm not talking about selling to avoid a dip in targets, I'm talking about selling to take advantage of a huge 4 week target load. The plan would be to capitalize on dynasty owners who have redraft logic. People get caught up in 4 week samples. If you can get 196 expected targets returns for Juju, you're doing well even if he ends up getting 140 targets for the next 3 years. 

I'm not saying dump him for the best offer you can get. I'm just saying test the waters and sell high if possible. Juju is the WR2 on his team. If you can essentially get a WR1 like Evans for him, I think that's a win.

Brown is getting older and could easily be gone this offseason. I’m not sure how long Juju will be the WR2. And even if he is, it’s a much better situation than being the WR1 most places, including TB.

Sure, if you can turn him into Evans, that’s solid. If you can add to him for Thomas or Hopkins or Beckham, you do it. But I take “sell” to mean his overall dynasty value is set to drop, and that’s what I question. I think he’s firmly in tier 2, ahead of Brown and right next to Hill and Evans.

 

[FF Ninja]

Brown is getting older and could easily be gone this offseason. I’m not sure how long Juju will be the WR2. And even if he is, it’s a much better situation than being the WR1 most places, including TB.

Sure, if you can turn him into Evans, that’s solid. If you can add to him for Thomas or Hopkins or Beckham, you do it. But I take “sell” to mean his overall dynasty value is set to drop, and that’s what I question. I think firmly in tier 2, ahead of Brown and right next to Hill and Evans.

I'll try to word it more carefully in the future. How does "seek an overpay" sound?