What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
Start 1 or 2 RB? If start 2, I'd be inclined to keep him for the depth. The war rages on in the Mattison thread, but I just don't think his value will dip in season based on him getting the majority of touches. That kind of volume is like what Monty has had the past couple years without much competition. Might be a good keep now and trade in season for a higher 1st.
 
After hearing peoples thought on my offer for chase or Jefferson. It seems Mixon is severely underrated imo. I’ll be checking his price tag in leagues I don’t have him and most definitely view him as a hold. I understand he had a Dow year last year but he’s one of the very few backs that seems he will dominate his backfield and he’s on one of the best offenses on the league.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
Start 1 or 2 RB? If start 2, I'd be inclined to keep him for the depth. The war rages on in the Mattison thread, but I just don't think his value will dip in season based on him getting the majority of touches. That kind of volume is like what Monty has had the past couple years without much competition. Might be a good keep now and trade in season for a higher 1st.
Start 2-4
 
After hearing peoples thought on my offer for chase or Jefferson. It seems Mixon is severely underrated imo. I’ll be checking his price tag in leagues I don’t have him and most definitely view him as a hold. I understand he had a Dow year last year but he’s one of the very few backs that seems he will dominate his backfield and he’s on one of the best offenses on the league.
He is also coming off one of his worst seasons despite remaining healthy. He has a pending legal issue for which he may be suspended, and he has a spotty history when it comes to injury. And, he’s not young.

If anything, I think he’s a little bit overvalued.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
Start 1 or 2 RB? If start 2, I'd be inclined to keep him for the depth. The war rages on in the Mattison thread, but I just don't think his value will dip in season based on him getting the majority of touches. That kind of volume is like what Monty has had the past couple years without much competition. Might be a good keep now and trade in season for a higher 1st.
Start 2-4
Bijan, ETN and Mattison are you only true starting RBs with Monty and AJD stuck in a strong committee. I'd keep Mattison for depth given that you'll need at least 2 for starters, depth and possibly/probably flex play. I feel like a lot of GMs trade away their depth pre and early season only to get bitten in the rear during the late season injury attrition.
 
I wouldn’t trade Jefferson for that either but some of these responses seem a bit over-board. It’s 2 firsts a second and a guy that still puts up RB1 numbers, albeit with a finish line in sight.
I think switching in a younger RB that’s as productive as Mixon and it’s, at least, a legit offer.
Mixon is worth fairly minimal now in MOST cases. I don't think many are expecting him to be a useful starting piece much further beyond this year. Then you have to wait a year to get help from the 2024 1st, and then 2 years for the 2025. All from a team that just improved significantly by trading for one of the top 2 WRs in the entire league, so you're looking at 1.8s and later more than likely.

I just think if you're giving up Jefferson, it's got to be for 1 (if not 2) actual core players (ie you can pen them in for at least another 3 seasons of productivity) and picks that have a chance to improve your team in the same window as the player(s) you acquired as well. Very unlikely Mixon is still useful by the time those picks are truly ready to start helping that team compete again, so him even being included in this offer as the only player coming back tells me the offering owner is lazy or a lowballer.
 
After hearing peoples thought on my offer for chase or Jefferson. It seems Mixon is severely underrated imo. I’ll be checking his price tag in leagues I don’t have him and most definitely view him as a hold. I understand he had a Dow year last year but he’s one of the very few backs that seems he will dominate his backfield and he’s on one of the best offenses on the league.
He is also coming off one of his worst seasons despite remaining healthy. He has a pending legal issue for which he may be suspended, and he has a spotty history when it comes to injury. And, he’s not young.

If anything, I think he’s a little bit overvalued.
They also just drafted someone who seems very, very capable to take his place in Chase Brown.
 
so him even being included in this offer as the only player coming back tells me the offering owner is lazy or a lowballer.
What if the team can flip Mixon for another late first?
That’s the three firsts and a second for Jefferson. Like I said I wouldn’t do it but it’s not an insulting offer imo. It at least opens the door for a counter - which could be replacing Mixon with a younger RB as I suggested.
 
After hearing peoples thought on my offer for chase or Jefferson. It seems Mixon is severely underrated imo. I’ll be checking his price tag in leagues I don’t have him and most definitely view him as a hold. I understand he had a Dow year last year but he’s one of the very few backs that seems he will dominate his backfield and he’s on one of the best offenses on the league.
I actually like his value this year but he’s not enough to move the needle for JJ or Chase, plain and simple. He’s a RB and he is getting a little older for the position. I also think that Cincy will pay Higgins and, of course, Burrow and I don’t see anyway they will keep Mixon beyond this year. Then more than likely he goes the way of the aging RB and joins a committee for less dough.

Then you mentioned adding a few draft picks. I probably value draft picks less than anyone on this board. With most picks you’re hoping that player will be half or possibly 3/4, if you’re lucky, as good as what JJ or Chase are. I don’t understand moving them for that. Unless you get the 1.1 in a class like this with Bijan but you can’t guarantee that. Let’s say that a couple of first round picks were for this draft and they are a mid and a late first for example. They select JSN and Flowers. So the trade for them ends up being Mixon, JSN, and Flowers for Chase. This guy is already stacked at WR with JJ, Kupp, Olave, and Evans remaining. He can start two of them at WR and 2 at Flex. I especially don’t get making a move like this when it that kind of position of power. If I was that guy I’d be more interested in moving Kupp or Evans for RB help.

I have Mixon in one league and he’s been on my trade block for a long time with no bites. I have Chase in 1 league and I traded him away in 1. The trade was in a SF league in which I got CMC and Fields back. That covers receiving a stud back (CMC) and a young player with potential at a premium position in SF (Fields) and some people on here don’t even like that deal for me, which I get. It’s hard to come off of JJ or Chase.
 
They also just drafted someone who seems very, very capable to take his place in Chase Brown
I disagree here. If Brown was such a good prospect that landing spot would have skyrocketed him up the boards. Brown is nothing but a depth RB.
If Charbonet would have been drafted by Cinncy he would have been the 1.03 for example - Brown is going late second/early third because no one expects him to take over. The RB of the future in Cinncy is not on the roster now.
 
so him even being included in this offer as the only player coming back tells me the offering owner is lazy or a lowballer.
What if the team can flip Mixon for another late first?
That’s the three firsts and a second for Jefferson. Like I said I wouldn’t do it but it’s not an insulting offer imo. It at least opens the door for a counter - which could be replacing Mixon with a younger RB as I suggested.
Sure, it makes more sense with the RBs you suggested - but those guys are all several tiers above Mixon in dynasty. I also think it would be an outlier to get a late 1st for him right now, despite the trade or 2 we saw go down in here where he returned a ton, but maybe I'm lower on him than most.
 
I feel like a lot of GMs trade away their depth pre and early season only to get bitten in the rear during the late season injury attrition.
That’s why I’m hesitant.

At the same time I have Mattison < AJD & Monty

Feels like Mattison will likely also be in a timeshare - I don’t have him on the same level as Bijan/ETN
 
They also just drafted someone who seems very, very capable to take his place in Chase Brown
I disagree here. If Brown was such a good prospect that landing spot would have skyrocketed him up the boards. Brown is nothing but a depth RB.
If Charbonet would have been drafted by Cinncy he would have been the 1.03 for example - Brown is going late second/early third because no one expects him to take over. The RB of the future in Cinncy is not on the roster now.
Possible. Being a 5th round pick didn't help. Mixon not getting cut didn't help. But I've seen him go early 2nd, right after Miller/Achane which feels about right. I'm not saying I know if he's going to be of use, but he was a highly productive RB in a power 5 conference that seems to have the eye of the coaching staff with his work ethic and preparedness. It may not take much to take some touches away from Mixon's plodding touches.
 
I feel like a lot of GMs trade away their depth pre and early season only to get bitten in the rear during the late season injury attrition.
That’s why I’m hesitant.

At the same time I have Mattison < AJD & Monty

Feels like Mattison will likely also be in a timeshare - I don’t have him on the same level as Bijan/ETN
I wouldn't be so sure ETN isn't also in a timeshare.
 
I wouldn't be so sure ETN isn't also in a timeshare
I’m actually quite certain he is in a timeshare.
ETN is on the right side (higher percentage of touches) of the timeshare where AJD and Monty are not, IMO. Also, if you're that down on Mattison, then you need to smash accept for that 2025 1st. Personally, I think Mattison's is a high RB2 based on volume alone. There's a reason McBride was taken in the 7th round and Ty Chandler got 6 carries last season.
 
I wouldn't be so sure ETN isn't also in a timeshare
I’m actually quite certain he is in a timeshare.
I took your statement "not on the same level as Bijan/ETN", in conjunction with the statement "Feels like Mattison will likely also be in a timeshare", as being you don't think ETN will be in a timeshare.
You have assumed incorrectly, sir.

I was just saying I think ETN is a better RB than Mattison. At least a tier higher or more for dynasty.

I have ETN as a top 10-14 and Mattison as a top 18-22. And Mattison may be a 1-2 year dude, while ETN feels like a better long-term investment.
 
ETN is on the right side (higher percentage of touches) of the timeshare where AJD and Monty are not, IMO. Also, if you're that down on Mattison, then you need to smash accept for that 2025 1st. Personally, I think Mattison's is a high RB2 based on volume alone. There's a reason McBride was taken in the 7th round and Ty Chandler got 6 carries last season.
I believe AJD is going to be in a near even split, while Monty should see the between the tackles work, including short yardage / GL.

I think all of these RBs will be good.

It’s my opinion that Mattison will be less valuable than the other 4 I have dynasty-wise.

Which is why I’d consider moving Mattison for a 1st, to get this back on topic.

Feels like 4 RB are enough but I’m on the fence. 5 RB certainly buys me a little more comfort in case of injury/ineffectiveness.
 
I wouldn't be so sure ETN isn't also in a timeshare
I’m actually quite certain he is in a timeshare.
I took your statement "not on the same level as Bijan/ETN", in conjunction with the statement "Feels like Mattison will likely also be in a timeshare", as being you don't think ETN will be in a timeshare.
You have assumed incorrectly, sir.

I was just saying I think ETN is a better RB than Mattison. At least a tier higher or more for dynasty.

I have ETN as a top 10-14 and Mattison as a top 18-22. And Mattison may be a 1-2 year dude, while ETN feels like a better long-term investment.
Sorry for misunderstanding your two statements. I just assumed that one was related to the other.
 
I just assumed
Again, this was the issue.
Just responded to what I read in the two sentences. You mentioned timeshare with Mattison and not on same level as Bijan and ETN. That looks like you’re saying ETN wouldn’t be in a timeshare. Sorry you don’t see it. You probably should have said not on the same level, even though I believe ETN will be in a timeshare. Anyway, it’s not important enough to continue discussing it.
 
Last edited:
I just assumed
Again, this was the issue.
Just responded to what I read in the two sentences. You mentioned timeshare with Mattison and not on same level as Bijan and ETN. That looks like you’re saying ETN wouldn’t be in a timeshare. Sorry you don’t see it. Anyway, it’s not important enough to continue discussing it.
Apparently it is because here you are, still discussing it. :shrug:
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
Anyone? Something economics? Voodoo economics
:oldunsure:
I like the value fine and if I felt I wouldn't need Mattison I'd take it. If you're comfortable with Monty/AJD as #3/#4 this season I say go for it.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
Anyone? Something economics? Voodoo economics
:oldunsure:
I like the value fine and if I felt I wouldn't need Mattison I'd take it. If you're comfortable with Monty/AJD as #3/#4 this season I say go for it.
I feel like I’m comfortable enough with that depth that it would be worth the profit of getting a future first.

I just need to decide if I am better off with five running backs than four.

Appreciate the response
 
What’s Hurts value in ‘23 rookie picks in a 1QB, 12 team ppr, all td’s 6pts, std yardage scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/k/d. High first? Mid? Multiple firsts? Trade value charts vary. Anybody seen him moved lately?
 
What’s Hurts value in ‘23 rookie picks in a 1QB, 12 team ppr, all td’s 6pts, std yardage scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/k/d. High first? Mid? Multiple firsts? Trade value charts vary. Anybody seen him moved lately?
It’s hard to say in single quarterback. I would think because of the cheat code, rushing stats, hurts would be worth at least two first round picks.


I haven’t seen any deals with him recently, but that’s my best guess
 
What’s Hurts value in ‘23 rookie picks in a 1QB, 12 team ppr, all td’s 6pts, std yardage scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/k/d. High first? Mid? Multiple firsts? Trade value charts vary. Anybody seen him moved lately?
I'm pretty low on QB's normally, but I have Hurts, and if I were offered the #3 pick, I'm not sure if I could take it. #2, easy accept. But any single rookie after Bijan and Gibbs would be hard to accept. Partly because it's a huge dropoff. Not much separation from #3 to #12.
 
What’s Hurts value in ‘23 rookie picks in a 1QB, 12 team ppr, all td’s 6pts, std yardage scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/k/d. High first? Mid? Multiple firsts? Trade value charts vary. Anybody seen him moved lately?
I'm pretty low on QB's normally, but I have Hurts, and if I were offered the #3 pick, I'm not sure if I could take it. #2, easy accept. But any single rookie after Bijan and Gibbs would be hard to accept. Partly because it's a huge dropoff. Not much separation from #3 to #12.
No separation between JSN and Gibbs IMO. I’ve seen one go before the other several times, but I agree most have been duped into Gibbs at 1.02 :)
 
I wouldn't be so sure ETN isn't also in a timeshare.
You like a lot of late round RBs it seems.
Wasn’t Bigsby taken in the 3rd round? That’s not late. Yes, I like McBride over Chandler. What round was Chandler taken in?
Not late, but getting late-ish. I think most of the league is in a timeshare now though. I don’t see ETN giving up all that much work though.
Perhaps you are right.
 
Perhaps you are right.
Hasty was used a lot last season, and they went in wanting a Robinson/ETN timeshare until Robinson couldn’t get it done. So I do think ETN will be in a timeshare, and to be fair it’s most likely Tank that would get the other carries.

I don’t see much downside when compared to last year since he shared snaps last year as well, so I expect him to still be either a late RB1 or early RB2 if healthy. Hopefully his passing game role increases- he is capable of more than last season in that aspect.
 
Perhaps you are right.
Hasty was used a lot last season, and they went in wanting a Robinson/ETN timeshare until Robinson couldn’t get it done. So I do think ETN will be in a timeshare, and to be fair it’s most likely Tank that would get the other carries.

I don’t see much downside when compared to last year since he shared snaps last year as well, so I expect him to still be either a late RB1 or early RB2 if healthy. Hopefully his passing game role increases- he is capable of more than last season in that aspect.
No shares of ETN and only 1 if Tank, so I don’t really have a horse in the race. Perhaps a half a horse. I agree with what you’re saying, but ETN better be on top of his game or it could turn into a bigger timeshare for Bigsby.
 
Perhaps you are right.
Hasty was used a lot last season, and they went in wanting a Robinson/ETN timeshare until Robinson couldn’t get it done. So I do think ETN will be in a timeshare, and to be fair it’s most likely Tank that would get the other carries.

I don’t see much downside when compared to last year since he shared snaps last year as well, so I expect him to still be either a late RB1 or early RB2 if healthy. Hopefully his passing game role increases- he is capable of more than last season in that aspect.
No shares of ETN and only 1 if Tank, so I don’t really have a horse in the race. Perhaps a half a horse. I agree with what you’re saying, but ETN better be on top of his game or it could turn into a bigger timeshare for Bigsby.
It works both ways. Bigsby first has to worry about beating out Hasty and Johnson, two solid veterans for the backup role.
 
Perhaps you are right.
Hasty was used a lot last season, and they went in wanting a Robinson/ETN timeshare until Robinson couldn’t get it done. So I do think ETN will be in a timeshare, and to be fair it’s most likely Tank that would get the other carries.

I don’t see much downside when compared to last year since he shared snaps last year as well, so I expect him to still be either a late RB1 or early RB2 if healthy. Hopefully his passing game role increases- he is capable of more than last season in that aspect.
No shares of ETN and only 1 if Tank, so I don’t really have a horse in the race. Perhaps a half a horse. I agree with what you’re saying, but ETN better be on top of his game or it could turn into a bigger timeshare for Bigsby.
It works both ways. Bigsby first has to worry about beating out Hasty and Johnson, two solid veterans for the backup role.
Well of course there is that, but from what I'm reading that shouldn't be a problem.
 
Okay but those "outliers" make up 2 of the top 10 dynasty RBs right now and 3 of the top 12 scoring RBs last year.

It's becoming more and more normalized and few of those guys have walked into a situation that looks as good for doing it as Cook is walking into this year. Yet his pricetag is still extremely reasonable.

we'll agree to disagree on the "normalization"

There are a few outliers and now it's a thing...I'm not buying it.
To call them outliers would require looking at top fantasy football performances over a certain time frame and then cross referencing that with the amout of opportunity those players had in college and I suppose choosing some sort of threshold for that college opportunity.

It does make a bit of sense that workhorse opportunity in college shows they can be used that way in the pros, but there are many college RB who had high number of opportunities in college that don't end up doing that in the NFL. So the ones that do are outliers themselves from the entire field of college RB with high opportunity actually getting high opportunity as pros.

That criteria would need to be established and agreed upon and I don't know what that might tell us.

However there are more top performing fantasy RB that shared opportunities in college than the ones that have been mentioned.

Chubb shared with Michel and Swift for example in Georgia and Mixon shared with Perine in Oklahoma.

It's not an outlier once you start talking about 30% or so of the qualifiers although at quick glance it does look like the majority of the top fantasy performers had high opportunity in college as well.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
On the surface I like the offer but 2 years out is a long time from now.

Typical time value discount is to drop the value of the pick one round for each year one has to wait for that pick to mature in the NFL. That would make this like trading a 1st for a 3rd round pick.

Now fantasy football is different as there are not as many teams as in the NFL and goals are different.

Maybe there is a resource out there that evaluates this more appropriately for fantasy football available out there?

I know I have discussed this with people here before and generally most do not think the time value discount should be quite that dramatic, but there should be some discount factored in here when talking about 2 years away.

Something you should evaluate is what players can you pick up with the freed up roster spot if you trade Mattison and what the value of that replacement level player is compared to Mattison as part of your decision.

I have seen some saying they are getting 1st round pick 2024 for Mattison and so that pick is worth more than a 2025 pick is. So based on that I would think you can get more than that.

Others may be moving Mattison for 2024 2nd Round pick and maybe that's closer to his value for most owners, although I still feel a potential starting RB, if even for only one season is worth more than a 2nd Round pick, although maybe not a 1st. I think his value is somewhat in between that. Or late 1st type of guesstimate.

I would say that offer is worth considering but that I would try to get more for Mattison than that.

For example 2025 1st and 2024 2nd would be the top range of value to seek, or something similar to that. More picks than just the 2025 1st is what I would try for or the 1st plus a player on their roster that you like more than a free agent you could pick up.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
On the surface I like the offer but 2 years out is a long time from now.

Typical time value discount is to drop the value of the pick one round for each year one has to wait for that pick to mature in the NFL. That would make this like trading a 1st for a 3rd round pick.

Now fantasy football is different as there are not as many teams as in the NFL and goals are different.

Maybe there is a resource out there that evaluates this more appropriately for fantasy football available out there?

I know I have discussed this with people here before and generally most do not think the time value discount should be quite that dramatic, but there should be some discount factored in here when talking about 2 years away.

Something you should evaluate is what players can you pick up with the freed up roster spot if you trade Mattison and what the value of that replacement level player is compared to Mattison as part of your decision.

I have seen some saying they are getting 1st round pick 2024 for Mattison and so that pick is worth more than a 2025 pick is. So based on that I would think you can get more than that.

Others may be moving Mattison for 2024 2nd Round pick and maybe that's closer to his value for most owners, although I still feel a potential starting RB, if even for only one season is worth more than a 2nd Round pick, although maybe not a 1st. I think his value is somewhat in between that. Or late 1st type of guesstimate.

I would say that offer is worth considering but that I would try to get more for Mattison than that.

For example 2025 1st and 2024 2nd would be the top range of value to seek, or something similar to that. More picks than just the 2025 1st is what I would try for or the 1st plus a player on their roster that you like more than a free agent you could pick up.
First, thanks for the thoughtful response.

Regarding value, yes - totally agree. A 2025 1st is the rough equivalent of a 2024 2nd.

But that said, that’s why they would pay that for Mattison.

From my perspective, if he’s the back of the bench depth piece, I profit pretty well at that price considering I paid Marcus Mariotta+David Bell for Mattison a year ago.

Ran it through 3 calcs I like - 2 had the 2025 1st as on overpay (those calcs tend to overvalue future picks, from what I’ve seen) and Keep Trade Cut had it almost dead nuts even.

So IMO, the deal is a profit for my team.

My only concern with it is whether I’m good enough at RB to only carry 4 viable backs (plus the scraps like Deion Jackson, Prince, Eric Gray, Justin Jackson)

The strength of my team is largely at WR with AJB, ARSB, Higgins, Bateman, Gabe Davis

if it matters to the equation, I currently do not have a 2024 or 2025 1st round pick. So if I were to acquire one here, it would be my only one.

Depth to compete now Vs getting a future asset to compete later. It’s a hard choice.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
On the surface I like the offer but 2 years out is a long time from now.

Typical time value discount is to drop the value of the pick one round for each year one has to wait for that pick to mature in the NFL. That would make this like trading a 1st for a 3rd round pick.

Now fantasy football is different as there are not as many teams as in the NFL and goals are different.

Maybe there is a resource out there that evaluates this more appropriately for fantasy football available out there?

I know I have discussed this with people here before and generally most do not think the time value discount should be quite that dramatic, but there should be some discount factored in here when talking about 2 years away.

Something you should evaluate is what players can you pick up with the freed up roster spot if you trade Mattison and what the value of that replacement level player is compared to Mattison as part of your decision.

I have seen some saying they are getting 1st round pick 2024 for Mattison and so that pick is worth more than a 2025 pick is. So based on that I would think you can get more than that.

Others may be moving Mattison for 2024 2nd Round pick and maybe that's closer to his value for most owners, although I still feel a potential starting RB, if even for only one season is worth more than a 2nd Round pick, although maybe not a 1st. I think his value is somewhat in between that. Or late 1st type of guesstimate.

I would say that offer is worth considering but that I would try to get more for Mattison than that.

For example 2025 1st and 2024 2nd would be the top range of value to seek, or something similar to that. More picks than just the 2025 1st is what I would try for or the 1st plus a player on their roster that you like more than a free agent you could pick up.
First, thanks for the thoughtful response.

Regarding value, yes - totally agree. A 2025 1st is the rough equivalent of a 2024 2nd.

But that said, that’s why they would pay that for Mattison.

From my perspective, if he’s the back of the bench depth piece, I profit pretty well at that price considering I paid Marcus Mariotta+David Bell for Mattison a year ago.

Ran it through 3 calcs I like - 2 had the 2025 1st as on overpay (those calcs tend to overvalue future picks, from what I’ve seen) and Keep Trade Cut had it almost dead nuts even.

So IMO, the deal is a profit for my team.

My only concern with it is whether I’m good enough at RB to only carry 4 viable backs (plus the scraps like Deion Jackson, Prince, Eric Gray, Justin Jackson)

The strength of my team is largely at WR with AJB, ARSB, Higgins, Bateman, Gabe Davis

if it matters to the equation, I currently do not have a 2024 or 2025 1st round pick. So if I were to acquire one here, it would be my only one.

Depth to compete now Vs getting a future asset to compete later. It’s a hard choice.
I would ask for more as you are hurting your ability to compete this season by giving up the depth, that could always be traded later on if you don't need it.

I don't think it's a bad offer and as you say it's fair based on some valuation calculators out there. I just think you can ask for a bit more and see what they say.

Nothing bad about not doing the deal now. You should have more opportunities to do that if you hold out for a better deal.
 
. I just think you can ask for a bit more and see what they say.
I’m skeptical based on our exchanges. After much back & forth, this is what we landed on as mutually acceptable.

I also have to ask myself this: would I spend a top 12 rookie pick on Alexander Mattison in his age 26-27 season?
 
I also have to ask myself this: would I spend a top 12 rookie pick on Alexander Mattison in his age 26-27 season?
But that isn't exactly an equal comparison. It's not his age 26-27 season right now. So that evaluation needs to include two years of performance. That has value. Obviously if it was 2025 and Mattison was 27 then it is likely an auto accept. But you are also giving up two years of theoretically RB2 value.
 
But that isn't exactly an equal comparison. It's not his age 26-27 season right now. So that evaluation needs to include two years of performance. That has value. Obviously if it was 2025 and Mattison was 27 then it is likely an auto accept. But you are also giving up two years of theoretically RB2 value.
True.

Mostly if I trade I’m hedging against those 2 years being not that great.
 
12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST

Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.

RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.

Value seems right.

Yes, make this deal?

No, keep the RB depth?
Count me on the side for taking trade. I see getting a 1st for Mattison as close to his peak value. Lots of scenarios where his value drops. Let your league mate take the risk of adding a RB in June.
 
Nothing bad about not doing the deal now. You should have more opportunities to do that if you hold out for a better deal.
This is dependent upon Mattison doing as expected. If it turns out he is JAG and doesn't impress then his value may go down. There is that risk.
Sure.

I did think about that when making my previous post.

There are still almost 3 months before the season starts if one wanted to get out before he plays in any games.

I have stated my opinion about Mattison in his thread or Cooks thread or both. I don't think he is a special RB.

I do think he is capable of being a starter though and generate value for FF while he is. A starting RB is valuable, even if it's for only one season, or a chunk of a season.

If people hold on to him into the season there is some risk he doesn't do great. Then he would lose value. There is also the possibility he puts up good numbers though and one could sell him for more then.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top