12 team SF, PPR no K, no D/ST
Rebuilt team, likely will compete this year.
RBs = Bijan, ETN, Montgomery, AJD, & Mattison
Have an offer for a 2025 1st for Mattison. Decent team. Pick’s probably going to be 8-12, but hard to say 2 years out. A lot can change. Pick could improve. Or not.
Value seems right.
Yes, make this deal?
No, keep the RB depth?
On the surface I like the offer but 2 years out is a long time from now.
Typical time value discount is to drop the value of the pick one round for each year one has to wait for that pick to mature in the NFL. That would make this like trading a 1st for a 3rd round pick.
Now fantasy football is different as there are not as many teams as in the NFL and goals are different.
Maybe there is a resource out there that evaluates this more appropriately for fantasy football available out there?
I know I have discussed this with people here before and generally most do not think the time value discount should be quite that dramatic, but there should be some discount factored in here when talking about 2 years away.
Something you should evaluate is what players can you pick up with the freed up roster spot if you trade Mattison and what the value of that replacement level player is compared to Mattison as part of your decision.
I have seen some saying they are getting 1st round pick 2024 for Mattison and so that pick is worth more than a 2025 pick is. So based on that I would think you can get more than that.
Others may be moving Mattison for 2024 2nd Round pick and maybe that's closer to his value for most owners, although I still feel a potential starting RB, if even for only one season is worth more than a 2nd Round pick, although maybe not a 1st. I think his value is somewhat in between that. Or late 1st type of guesstimate.
I would say that offer is worth considering but that I would try to get more for Mattison than that.
For example 2025 1st and 2024 2nd would be the top range of value to seek, or something similar to that. More picks than just the 2025 1st is what I would try for or the 1st plus a player on their roster that you like more than a free agent you could pick up.
First, thanks for the thoughtful response.
Regarding value, yes - totally agree. A 2025 1st is the rough equivalent of a 2024 2nd.
But that said, that’s why they would pay that for Mattison.
From my perspective, if he’s the back of the bench depth piece, I profit pretty well at that price considering I paid Marcus Mariotta+David Bell for Mattison a year ago.
Ran it through 3 calcs I like - 2 had the 2025 1st as on overpay (those calcs tend to overvalue future picks, from what I’ve seen) and Keep Trade Cut had it almost dead nuts even.
So IMO, the deal is a profit for my team.
My only concern with it is whether I’m good enough at RB to only carry 4 viable backs (plus the scraps like Deion Jackson, Prince, Eric Gray, Justin Jackson)
The strength of my team is largely at WR with AJB, ARSB, Higgins, Bateman, Gabe Davis
if it matters to the equation, I currently do not have a 2024 or 2025 1st round pick. So if I were to acquire one here, it would be my only one.
Depth to compete now Vs getting a future asset to compete later. It’s a hard choice.