kutta
Footballguy
Lots of different ways to take this. It's what makes this silly game so fun!Shouldn't I approach trades in a similar fashion to what you just mentioned though?Startup drafts are a horrible way to gauge value. People drafting AJ Brown early may realize they can still nab Lamar later for the their QB, so they don't draft Allen early. Just so many factors.Like I said earlier, I’m probably lower on AJ Brown than most and not really interested in giving away a player like Allen for a player like Brown and get a dart throw 2nd or even late 1st in return.neither of you have provided any datapoints or any type of valued analysis of the deal
If you’re going to do that with the QB’s, you gotta do it for the WRs too.Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.
Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?
In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.
League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.
I would let the history of your league be your guide.
Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.
The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.
Value Question:
Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02
Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10
Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.
I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.
You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quiteYeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.To add a little more (now you got me going)
Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?
If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.
(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)
PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...
Who are the other QBs on their roster?
I have checked various trade calculators, again - to try and get a baseline of Josh Allen's value because nobody is giving up a top 15 WR + a 1st round pick for 1QB in a dynasty league that starts 8 skills players. AJ Brown + 2025 2nd round pick has come out to equal value on every (3) site I have checked. His other QB's are Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold. The "uber stud" analogy you gave only applies to QB? Nothing about starting the WR15 over WR37, WR56, WR59, well... you get the point.
I don't really take issue with you having a difference in value but your approach was rude and off-base. The delta between AJ Brown + Josh Allen in dynasty isn't a first round pick. In start-ups, AJ Brown is going ahead of Josh Allen... Who would lead with that trade? Here is WR9 in Dynasty Rankings plus 1.05 (you said high first) for your Josh Allen, pre-NFL draft?
Again, had you said you'll probably have to turn that 3rd into a 2nd and drop the pick coming back, I probably would have agreed.
Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Addison were all within 2.5 PPG of AJ Brown last year. If you want to go all the way to five PPG, you get guys like Quentin Johnson and MHJ.
The point is, it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown. There’s a huge group clustered there right around 13-16 PPG. It’s VERY difficult to find a QB who scores like Allen (there’s a few, but good luck figuring out who it will be).
I didn't start the 5 PPG advantage over all other QB's conversation but I did fan the flames. AJ Brown is more than 2.5 PPG over Jennings, Thielen but Addison does fit the bill. No reference to start-up draft capital needed to acquire either player? Literally, nothing about consensus feelings toward WR/QB? The QB list wasn't to prove that Josh Allen is some middling bum... it was to prove what was being said just isn't true.
But once you have your team, and you have a Josh Allen, you don't give him up unless you are blown away with an offer. There are only a few players I feel that way about, and Allen is one of them.
But hey, everyone's mileage will vary...
I don't know - I feel like there is a point/counterpoint to every aspect of this conversation. What drafting AJ Brown before Josh Allen in a start-up league tells me is that most managers place a premium on RB and WR over QB. This has been this way for years and it hasn't changed. In fact, by having 8 skill players going at the same time... it has devalued the QB position even more. You said earlier, you think studs are the key to winning in dynasty and while I agree with you - having 8 skill players started each week has also made balancing depth important.
