This would be a 100% win for me here.
It sounds like others aren’t convinced this is a possibility.
I'd certainly cede that it's a possibility.
For Tee Higgins and a 2nd, I'd want a probability.
I know KeepTradeCut isn't perfect and certainly not the Bible. It's a reference point. It has Ward as QB14 and has this as a major overpay. They rate the difference equal to a late 1st, Waddle, or even Jameson Williams.
Without ever looking at KeepTradeCut, I thought it was already an overpay. Those 2nd round picks in SF often yield good players.
You're saying you feel like you have to overpay to ever get a QB. I can certainly appreciate that.
The problem becomes--what if Ward doesn't pan out? It's one thing to a pick a guy that may not pan out. It's maybe the same thing to trade ~perceived fair market value. But when you're full blown overpaying it becomes a double whammy if he busts. That's a big shot for any dynasty team to absorb. And I would be hesitant to feel forced into a potentially risky/ bad move out of necessity.
At the end of the day, there's some gambling here. And you have to decide if you think he's worth the gamble. I appreciate the reasons you feel compelled to do it. I don't think anyone's going to think you're crazy for doing it. But I certainly think it's an overpay with some significant downside if things go wrong.