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91.6 rating outdoors, which is better than 14/16 of elway's seasons. 65% completion, better than any season Elway put together.
Did we just imagine Peyton playing his last four years in Denver and breaking the single season TD record while playing there?
At times, yes, but without him they do not win the Super Bowl. He saved their bacon in the week 17 game against the Chargers when Osweiler was ####ting the bed (they lose that game, they do not win the division and end up as the 5 seed instead of the 1 seed), and he made big plays in both playoff wins over Pittsburgh and New England.
True, but I have no doubt that he still would have had the same career playing just about anywhere. Maybe an extra game in a cold and/or bad weather city in December would ding his stats just a tad, but not enough to be significant when looking at his career as a whole. Plus, the more you play in bad weather, the better you get at it. When you rarely play in snow or freezing cold weather, of course you are going to struggle in it, as opposed to the players who are a little more used to it.
That, plus people take the assumption as fact, which always bothered me.
Broncos didn’t when he threw 50 TDs. Doesn’t represent the bulk of his stats but shows that it’s not automatically limiting QB success.
To be fair I took a lot of mushrooms that year, so....
as has been pointed out, his scrambling has been vastly overstated/overrated. He didn’t run as much as people seem to remember him running.
You can’t know that though. Brees May well have been just as good in those conditions. Impossible to say this definitively.
And maybe they’re terrible? Again, we don’t know.
To be fair, I've lived in Denver the past two seasons. The majority of Sundays it's 50+ degrees and there has yet to be a game played in inclement weather. It happens but is very rare.
I have had the pleasure to watch both careers in full. I've never heard of Elway as a player who "mostly played average" (also, he won two SBs, and singlehandedly brought his team to another). What is your basis for this conclusion? Not saying it's wrong, but I've never seen anything to suggest mostly average.
Of course we don't know. But we can postulate and use reason in doing so.
I mean, isn't that part of the purpose of these lists in the first place.
That’s true, Denver’s weather is often mild. Even when you think about each year in “bad weather areas”, it’s maybe 6 weeks of potentially really bad weather. So when you figure half those games are on the road and plenty of those games are played under mild conditions, weather is likely a lot more random the we are attributing.
Glad to amuse you - might you have anything substantive to defend your position, especially in regard to surrounding talent? Do you dispute that having significantly different personal and/or overall level of surrounding talent does not impact one's career - and might impact different players in both different ways, and to varying degrees?
This is actually a fair point - Denver rarely gets the type of wind/rain that is most impactful on passing games as compared to the midwest and northeast.
Exactly - I have friends in Denver & it was warmer there (62) than it was here in CA (54) the other day.
no one in football “single-handedly” does anything. I’m just sayin.
Its a turn of phrase, not to be taken literally.
Is weighted AV adjusted based on The leaguewide stats in a given year? Like is it based on a z score?
I believe AV is based on a player’s individual performance compared to the rest of the league in that season. That being said, the HOF scores are not just a list of CareerAV. That is one of the considerations, but awards, championships, etc. are also part of the equation.
Just wait until Eli gets in… People will be scratching their head for decades afterwards trying to calculate who’s better than who with him blowing the curve.
Eli got a HOF score of 77. The average HOF QB score is 96.Just wait until Eli gets in… People will be scratching their head for decades afterwards trying to calculate who’s better than who with him blowing the curve.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/splits/
I think Brees still would have been a great QB of he played predominantly in open air stadiums - I just think playing in perfect conditions and not dealing with wind, rain, cold and snow has to help with elite production. I’m sure he’d still be in this conversation if he stayed in San Diego, even, but his numbers would probably be down some in that case.
Completely agree. And as someone mentioned above, not every game at Green Bay is played on the frozen tundra, nor is every game at Mile High a white-out condition snow storm.
Elway was an elite physical talent that went to 3 Super Bowls and won 2. Brees is an average physical talent but an elite mental talent that's won a Super Bowl and may likely own all noteworthy passing records by taking full advantage of the rules during his time of play. Brees was screwed late out of 1, possibly 2 SB appearances in the last 2 years. But the argument could be made that he didn't do enough in those games to prevent the possibility. Man this is a tough call but I'd go Elway. If he were coached by Payton in this era. 
Good call. Elway played on teams that probably had no business in the Super Bowl, yet he got them there. The final game didn’t go well, but to start so many SBs is an amazing feat.
Who comes off? (As I mentioned, I don’t believe Favre deserves quite this high a praise)
It will probably be in 25 years, not 10. And they’ll be 125 players so it won’t necessarily mean someone needs to get bumped.
I'd take every single one of these QB's over Eli.
