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FanEx Analysis Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TC
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
I think in basketball that is called an assist. LOL. Yes Holm is positioned exceptionally well in my opinion as he has an excellent chance to get the same player he was going to draft and moved up a lot when the WR run will be heavy. A great move for him.
And another thing. If Kellogg had taken Moss last round, he would have pushed one more RB down the boards. This would have guaranteed Dunn being there at his third round pick.What the heck, lets pile on. In the two current 16 team survivor leagues Dunn went.SI: 2.16 or #32 overall (= FanEx 3.8) with Barlow, Zeroue, and Stewart going earlier.SII: 3.12 or #44 overall (= FanEx 4.8) with Thomas and Barlow going earlier.I think Kellogg miscalculated the Dunn demand.
joffer
Footballguy
That was not directed at you, just making the point that I believe reaching for #2 RBs instead of grabbing a stud like Harrison or Owens can backfire. I remember watching the draft last year and liking your team and your first two picks just because I was so high on McAllister.I still don't quite get the difference between what Nulty won last year and what Dodds won, but obviously he won something with Barber, Zeroue, T. Jones, and Barlow as his RBs, so it can be done.
Brave Sir Robin
Footballguy
I'd be surprised if even 3 QBs are taken or even 2 TEs.
No kidding. It would be a mild surprise to see 5-7 QBs go before Independence Day.
cracKer
Shawn Culcasi
The receptions obviously add to Dunn's value as none of the remaining runners will likely approach his totals, but Greg is crazy to think that he wouldn't have been there for him at his original spot. Not a good trade IMO.Dunn was 15th despite...
The "despite" will always be there and you've got to consider yourself lucky if you get 14 games played out'v him.
David Dodds
Administrator
Finally some QBs taken. Hickerson takes Vick and Engel takes McNabb. Holm follows that up with Trung Canidate.
John Maddens Lunchbox
Footballguy
2.01 RB Fred TaylorBy David Dodds of Footballguys.com But what I will say is every owner from about pick 6 on will likely overpay for their RBs. It is a simple case of supply and demand and a format that requires all of the owners to jump early to get their RB talent. You can overpay slightly now or you can overpay more later. Your choice. I also believe since I do not have to choose WRs each week (high score counts) that I can throw together a bunch of lesser known receivers who will have enough good weeks that I will do well. I did that last year and won this league going away. So with that said, I chose to draft RB with my first two picks. Now onto the selection. Last year Jacksonville rushed 455 times for 2,089 yards and 19 TDs. Their 4.6 YPA was tied for 5th best in the NFL. Their 19 rushing TDs was tied for 7th and their 2,089 was the 10th best effort. Fred Taylor was clearly the featured runner on this team, but was lifted often in the redzone for Stacey Mack. Mack responded with 9 TDs last season, but will be playing in Houston this season. Mack vultured 27 redzone touches last year (many from inside the two yard line). With the departure of Stacey Mack, Fred Taylor will be given every opportunity to be the main back on virtually every play. Elvis Joseph and rookie LaBrandon Toefield are the backups, but neither are expected to play much of a role unless Fred Taylor gets hurt. It also virtually guarantees that Fred Taylor will be the man on the goal line. Taylor got just 35 redzone rushes last year. Contrast that with Ricky Williams who got 76 looks. If Fred Taylor got even 7 of Stacey Mack’s 9 rushing TDs last season, he would have finished as the 7th best back in fantasy points. Does the injury history of Fred Taylor scare me? Yes a little, but at his best Taylor has as much talent as anyone. I will take my chances here that he plays at least 14 games and with the added redzone chances finishes as a Top 10 back. 2.01 RB Fred TaylorBy Guest Mark HooperWow, how the mighty have fallen. Just two years ago Taylor was a consensus top 5 RB. It is really amazing to see the name "Fred Taylor" and "2nd round" in the same sentence.After putting in a solid, yet unspectacular 2002 campaign, you have to wonder if he can regain his previous "Studly" status. Last year he showed flashes of his old form, and did everything asked of him by FF owners, except put the ball in the end zone. And for that, you can't fault him, since he was not given that task. With the departure of Stacey Mack, (or as Fred Taylor owners like to call him (*&%$#Mack"), you would think he should be able to climb back to elite status. That remains to be seen, since Jacksonville is apparently going to try to get rookie LaBrandon Toefield involved in the running game. If Toefield proves worthwhile, you can guess he could become the goal line back to protect Taylor from that beating. That said, I like this choice at this point in the draft. With all the proven RBs already gobbled up in the first round, it was simply a matter of now or never. The only other option was to choose another position player, and if you calculate the risk associated with Taylor with the possible return on investment, he was the best value on the board. Added to the 1st round pick of Barber, I am sure Dodds felt he was in heaven having those two backs on the board that late. You can make a case that both should have been gone sometime before the end of the 1st round. If you subscribe to the stud RB theory in FF, Dodds has a massive jump on the rest of the league 2.02 RB Stephen DavisBy William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFLAfter taking WR Terrell Owens, we felt we had to have a RB to shore us up before they were completely depleted. We never considered any trade offers and it was a matter of determining which RB to take. The candidates to join KFFL's two-time FAD Championship team were:-- Stephen Davis-- Jamal Lewis-- Charlie Garner-- Corey Dillon This quickly boiled down to Stephen Davis and Jamal Lewis. We felt that Garner had had a career year and Dillon was set up to have a great year but that Lewis and Davis were better fantasy RBs this year. Many Dillon owners will argue that and we won't debate it, as he does have upside this year.However, the Carolina Panthers are a run-first mentality team, while the Ravens are forced to run. They actually are trying to continually develop a pass-first team, as evidenced by their additions of WRs Marcus Robinson and Frank Sanders via free agency and their drafting of strong-armed QB Kyle Boller in the first round. The latter is arguable but the truth is that they desperately want to be able to pass more often. In the running back’s defense, they have a great RBs coach in Mike Simon and that was one key reason we looked towards Lewis as an option. Simon is a great motivator and understands what it takes to be able to bring the best out of his RBs. He's got a solid two-year track record with various RBs and that will continue. Hopefully he’ll eventually get a crack at a head coaching job.That stated, Panthers head coach John Fox has implemented a run-first offense that will cater to Stephen Davis. He said he is the type of back he coveted the day he was hired. "I do want to run the football," Fox emphasized earlier this year. "We do need a feature back, a guy who runs 25 to 30 times a game." Davis said he's healthy enough to carry the load. "I'm fine, the shoulder is fine and I've worked out hard during the off-season," he said. "My thing is to go out and play like I'm an iron man."However, some have already questioned Davis’ health and the offensive line capability in Carolina. To answer those concerns, Davis is expected to carry the load, 25-30 times per game and all reports state his health (shoulder) is fine. That's anywhere from 400-480 carries for the season. That's anywhere from 1,600-1,900 yards. Yes, before anyone states otherwise, obviously that's being overly optimistic. But the truth is, Fox will try to do that and it's about opportunities at the RB position to generate fantasy points and with as many opportunities as he’ll see, that will generate plenty of TD opportunities as well as rushing yards.To further illustrate, in the first six weeks of the 2002 season when the Panthers were unexpectedly competing and had sound play from the QB position (okay, average play) the team ran the ball an average of 23 carries per game. With a RB of Davis' caliber they'll once again try to do that. Fox is building a team with a big offensive line, strong running game and strong defense. Basic fundamental football is his trademark and Davis will be a big part of that.That stated, he won't see many catches and that ultimately would increase Jamal Lewis' value over him in this scoring system but we like the fact that Davis will be the focal point of the Panthers’ offense, such as Ricky Williams is in Miami or Terrell Davis was in Denver. The fact he’ll see that many carries and by being on the field that much he should also see his career average and possibly a little more in receptions. We view those as pure bonus points. In reference to the offensive line, it is big with Todd Steussie, Kevin Donnalley, and Jeff Mitchell. The team added Jordan Gross and Bruce Nelson in the draft as well, to shore up the position. They also signed lineman Doug Brzezinski and, to further illustrate their commitment to the run, drafted blocking tight end Mike Seidman. This is a big powerful line that is built to run.Dan Henning, the offensive coordinator, echoed similar thoughts to the Associated Press, "If you're winning, and you're ahead in the third and fourth quarter, there's a good chance he'd be in the high to mid-350s." He went on to state he wants to run the ball 500 times this season with 90 percent of the carries going to the RB position. He views Davis as a step up because he's bigger, faster and stronger than anyone else they had on roster last year and the team as a whole feels he’ll easily break Anthony Johnson’s 300-carry team record this year. While we won’t argue the fact that Jamal Lewis may be better overall in this scoring system, we like the upside that Davis’ brings to the table and the potential for him to have a career year as well. 2.02 RB Stephen DavisBy Guest Bill RudyCharlie Garner is one of the true multi-dimensional players in the NFL. You could almost call him the “Garnertron” - he’s just like a transformer. A player who will be in a position to be score points via the ground or catches out of the backfield. In a league that scores 1 point per reception – you gotta look at Charlie Garner as a great RB option. Teaming him with Edge puts this team in a position to have two running backs that will be involved in a good chunk of plays their respective teams will be making. Through season 2002 Garner logged 182 carries for 962 yards and added to his totals by clocking in 91 catches for 941 yards, for a season total of 1903 yards and 11 TD’s. No running back had more receptions and only the top 10 WRs had a higher season reception total. Obviously one of Garners main selling point is his ability to be an active part of the Raiders aerial game plan. That is likely the main reason behind my thinking he was taken to high here. The emergence of Porter and Jolley should have an impact on the amount of catches he makes and the use of other Raiders running backs in different situations point to a decline in output this year. 2.03 WR Marvin Harrison (via trade)By Duane Cahill of Pitt Tribune-Review First off, I'm under no delusions that Harrison will catch another 143 balls in 2003. But for the last four seasons, Harrison has averaged an amazing 117 catches for 1580 yards and 13 scores. To trade a couple of players who will likely do well at 2.11 and 3.2 for a player who will certainly dominate his position was an opportunity that I could not pass up. As I stated in my analysis of this trade, it is very rare to have the chance to draft both your top-ranked running back and your top-ranked receiver. It is even more so to be able to do so in this pool of sharks. Frankly, I'm rather pleased with myself. 2.03 WR Marvin HarrisonBy Guest IM FletcherBoom! The first trade of the season in FanEx brings Duane Cahill's club record breaking WR Marvin Harrison. This was a great trade and pick. Cahill gives up picks 2.11, 3.02 & 5.02 to Hickerson for picks 2.03, 4.03 & 5.10. In doing this he acquires last year's top rated WR and a model of consistency at the position to go along with his stud RB Ricky Williams of Miami. Provided both players are healthy Duane just landed himself a Top 3 RB and WR in a twelve team experts league - quite the coup in this guest writers opinion. Harrison could have easily gone in the bottom half of round one. The drop off in the exchange from the 3.02 to the 4.03 really shouldn't be all that much of a factor since when the decision was made to go after Harrison, it was inferred the expense would be a solid #2 RB pick to compliment Williams. With about 6 to 9 (depending on who's doing the rating) solid #2 RB picks still on the board currently, Cahill likely would not have landed one at the 3.02 anyway with this group of fantasy players. He will still be afforded quality and comparable players at all other positions QB, WR & TE should he choose to go that way with his two fourth round picks. Surprisingly, the drop down that could hurt the most in this deal from Cahill's point of view might just be from the 5.02 to the 5.10. Where the opportunity to get a solid player might just drop off to deciding between a player with somewhat of an injury history or one with team offseason additions that could affect performance.There's really nothing much more I could say about Marvin Harrison that anyone with half a brain who watches football doesn't already know. He's been Peyton Manning's #1 target for several years now and is the most consistent WR in football over the past 5 years. The additions of rookie TE Dallas Clark and WR Brandon Stokley will do nothing to hurt Harrison's stats. The thinking here is those new additions would likely help to open up the downfield more to Harrison this year for a few extra long gainers. A healthy Edgerrin James will factor into this as well. Give Mr. Cahill credit for this one, I couldn't honestly tell you if he secretly hired the Great Gazu as his fantasy advisor but I do know that Ricky Williams and Marvin Harrison is an excellent way to start a fantasy football team. 2.04 RB Charlie GarnerBy Emil Kadlec of FF Pro Forecast Text 2.04 RB Charlie GardnerBy Guest Chris ChambersText 2.05 RB Jamal Lewis By John Hansen of The Guru Report Not an easy call because there were some attractive backs still available, but I didn't think too long about this pick. Lewis says he feels better this year (two years removed from his last knee injury) and that's great to hear because he was real good last year. With a good defense, a questionable QB situation, and a physical line, the Ravens will pound the ball with Lewis as often as possible this year. Jamal Lewis can also catch the ball and take it to the house once in a while, so he is a fantastic fantasy option. 2.05 RB Jamal LewisBy Guest Tom Walls of FanExExcellent pick here. The quality RBS are disappearing quickly here and getting one of the few left here was smart. Who knows what sort of running backs would have been left if Hansen had waited until round three. That said, Jamal Lewis had a good year last year coming off of an injury, and I think he will have a better year this year. Lewis did not have a great year for TDs in 2002, only 6 rushing and 1 receiving. But Lewis had over 1300 yards rushing and almost 450 receiving. He went up against some tough rushing defenses last year with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in his division (two of his better games came against the ‘Nati, though). He still has those teams in his division but gets to go against some teams that were poor against the run last year like San Diego, Kansas City and Seattle. The QB situation in Baltimore is still very much up in the air. Billick knows what to do with the personnel he’s given (he’s a genius, just ask him), and should keep the offense very conservative. The Ravens still have a very good defense and that is always a good sign for a team’s rushing offense. That defense should keep a lot of games close, and Lewis should get plenty of attempts to carry the ball. One thing to watch is Lewis’ fumbling. He fumbled 7 times last year. Of the top 25 RB fantasy producers (as defined by Footballguys.com), only Travis Henry has a higher fumble to rushing attempt ratio (both over 2%). If that keeps up, he may lose some carries to rookie Musa Smith or another RB on the Ravens roster. It would be very nice if Lewis could get to double digit touchdowns between rushing and receiving this year. If he can do that and stay at 80 YPG rushing, he will be a top tier RB2, and some teams may be wishing he was their #1 RB. 2.06 RB Corey DillonBy Brian Hulett of TheWinningDriveand Ryan Houston of Fantasy Asylum Team H-Bar-H had the typical FanEx 2nd-round blues with this pick. To RB, or not to RB? To snag the sliding star QB/WR or load up the backfield with a dependable RB2?It's my strong belief that it would be much harder to stack the backfield in the 3rd round than it would be to man the other positions. I think the proof of this comes in looking at the other earlier picks that were higheron my list than Dillon for RB2: Barber, Garner, and Lewis were 1st, 2nd, and 3rd options on a list I created after the 1.11 choice had been made. Within those six slots in front of ours, all three vanished.With a 1-pt bonus per reception, a rusher with prolific receiving skills is hot stuff, but Barber & Garner not an option now. Failing that, and with McAllister on board (productive and exciting but much-injured in college),dependability became key.Dillon has missed exactly two games in his entire six-year NFL career and has NEVER rushed for less than 1100 yds. That's durability and solid dependability. Plus, he's averaged almost 40 catches per year in the last two seasons.That fits every need in existence for Team H-Bar-H, and said needs are now filled. Others need not apply. ~Brian Hulett~ 2.06 RB Corey DillonBy Guest Mike Murray Hulett & Houston's selection of Corey Dillon was not exactly a surprise. The FanEx Analysis Draft has always started out as a run on running backs, and this year is no different. 11 of the first 12 picks were at RB, and 5 of the first 6 picks in the second round were at RB. With very little talent left at RB on the board, they made the right decision in drafting Dillon. Dillon has eclipsed 1,100 yards in each of his 6 NFL seasons, and has gone over 1,300 yards 3 times. His only real knocks have been in the areas of touchdown productivity and overall consistency. Dillon is noted for having many sub par games in a season, occasionally mixed with a few stellar games. Last year, he only had 5 100+ yard games, and only scored TD's in 2 of those games. He had quite a few 50 yard games. With the addition of new head coach Marvin Lewis, a very solid draft, and decent FA pickups, I think this team is on the rise (ducking lightning bolt) and I see Dillon's numbers only getting better. I believe another 1,300 yard season is easily attainable and 10+ TD's is very realistic. Overall, this is a great pick, and, in addition to their first pick (Deuce McAllister), they have a solid backfield. I can't wait to see who they select in round 3. 2.07 RB William GreenBy Greg Kellogg of Fantasy AsylumOver the final four weeks of the season, William Green was the fifth rated RB, trailing only Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Tiki Barber and Shaun Alexander. During that stretch, Green accounted for 422 yards on 95 carries and scored four TDs. He added 60 yards on 10 receptions. While past performance is no guarantor of future success, I feel Green finally began to grasp the Pro game and it showed. I also considered taking Randy Moss, and one of my top rated QBs with this pick but felt that Green was too good to pass up at this time due to the nature of my fellow drafters - it has been clear for some time that FanEx is full of RB-hungry drafters. 2.07 RB William GreenBy Guest Jason MarshallText 2.08 RB Curtis MartinBy Scott Engel of CBS Sportsline Once again, I was glad to land an RB who some might be a bit down on. Martin's stock has apparently dropped because of injuries last season, the continued emergence of LaMont Jordan, especially as a goal-line runner. But as No. 2 Fantasy RB, Martin still has a lot to offer. For most of his career so far, Martin has been durable, reliable, and consistent in terms of yardage output. While he might not be a Fantasy superstar anymore, Martin is a superb No. 2 Fantasy RB who will continue to be a key part of the Jets' offense. He is also a must-pick-choice at this point with the top RBs disappearing quickly in the first two rounds. 2.08 RB Curtis MartinBy Guest Darin ReinwaldText 2.09 WR Randy MossBy TC Cannon of Youth Fantasy Football "Guessing games. I don't want to play no guessing games! With my hopes of claiming WR Moss gone, my 'elite list' is quickly dwindling to a select few. Sure.. I also want the solid Moulds, Georges, and Warners on my rosters, but I NEED a real fantasy power that will be a difference maker - QB Donavan McNabb is such a player. " The above was written earlier today in preparation of the 2.07 player announcement. I did not expect to claim Moss - I was very sure Greg or Scott would want to count his production for their team. Instead, they go with the semi-awkward Green/Martin duo, leaving the All-Star receiver to me. And, perhaps McNabb later, too. Moss is an 'everything' player - When focused, he is the best receiver in the game and arguably one of the most gifted of all-time. (However, he is also quite possibly among the most arrogant, too.) Moss has averaged 1,350 yards and 13+ scores in four seasons, making him a perennial first-round fantasy pick. He can repeat as a top-three WR and I look forward to his continued success. 2.09 WR Randy MossBy Guest Angel CabralesRandy Moss is the ideal player to draft...if you like indigestion and living on the edge! He's a high-stakes gamble.Let me get one thing straight. I consider Moss to be *the* most talented player at his position in *all* of football. Here's a guy who is the first player in NFL history with 1,000 yd in each of his first 5 seasons.Last year, he made his 4th Pro Bowl appearance of his 5-yr NFL career. He has the "Randy Ratio" which virtually guarantees him 40% of the passes thrown in Minnesota. He'll get you an average of 80 receptions (steadily increasing) and 12 TD's (steadily decreasing).And then there's the giving up on plays. And the reports that he's on the league's substance abuse program for treating positive for marijuana. And the law suits for nudging traffic control agents with his car. Plus, whatever incidents that are not as publicly known. So what do you get when you draft Randy Moss? You get a guy with the talent to possibly carry your team and the attitude to possibly be just an above average WR. So, do you feel lucky, punk? 2.10 RB Michael Bennett By Tony Holm of Fantasy Sharks I was taking a RB all the way with this pitch. Though I will admit, if Randy Moss fell one more pick that would have left me in quite a pickle. Picking again 5 picks from now gives me certain luxuries with this pickand guesstimating who will be available with my next selection. It really came down to Eddie George or Michael Bennett. Eddie George is the end zone machine and Michael Bennett is the yardage machine. In this scoring system, I tend to lean on the side of the TD machine with 1 point per 15 yards and started to lean toward George. Michael Bennett really turned it on in the second half of last season so I decided to contrast both players by throwing away the first half of their seasonsand applying it to this scoring system. Bennett had 107 more rushing yards with 5 more receptions and 62 more receiving yards. George had 8 TD's to Bennett's paltry 3 and in this system that gave George 108 points and Bennett 94 points so theconclusion is that George was the better RB second half last year and my mind was made up. But something didn't feel right still.I still liked Bennett over George, no matter what the numbers said so I did a little more digging. To frame this properly, Michael Bennett averaged 5.4 yards a carry from scrimmage second half and Eddie George3.4. 5.4 yards a carry is pretty darn good and that tells me this kid has something special. If it weren't for the TD difference, Bennett running away would be the best RB left. We're only talking about 2 TD's here before Bennett matches George in this system so let's delve alittle deeper. Given that Bennett's career is on the way up and George is on the way down, I'd certainly prefer Bennett. It's not a stretch just because of that fact to subtract one TD from George and add one to Bennett given the points the two of them are at in their careers.But there's that darn TD vulture Moe Williams in Minnesota and that's a real bother. Everyone knows Moe scoffed 11 TD's last season which really hurt Bennett. What I had forgotten (or perhaps never knew!) is that Moe scored 8 of those 11 in the first half last year. But after Bennett established himself as the teams RB, those numbers dwindled all the way down to 3 in the second half. So just maybe? Maybe Michael Bennett's TD numbers will go up this year? It stands to reason that with Michael Bennett establishing himself as the Vikings RB, worst case scenario is that he and Moe split TD's justlike they did the entire second half last season. That was 16 TD's and would mean an improvement of 3 TD's. But you know what? Culpepper also had to make up for the RB issues they had last season and he ran in 10 himself. Hmmm .. that's a lot of rushing TD's up for grabs on this team! How small is Michael Bennett? Is that the limiting factor? Well no, it's really not. He and Emmitt Smith are identical in size and if Emmitt can rush for 25 TD's in a season? The opportunity is certainly there now that Bennett has made his game felt on the field. I'm notpredicting 25 but I am predicting he'll get more and that makes him the best RB on my board. 2.10 RB Michael BennettBy Guest Grady EnglishMichael Bennett is a home-run hitter…no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The former track star is a guy who can take it to the house each and every time he touches the ball. Personally, I love to have a player like that on my fantasy squad. Teaming him up with LaDanian Tomlinson is a downright scary back field. His 2002 statistics were very respectable (1647 Total Yards, 6 TDs) even with 2 other touchdown hawks (Moe Williams and Daunte Culpepper) having stolen a potential 21 TDs from him. During the 2nd half of the season Bennett proved he could shoulder the load of a feature bank by compiling a hefty 5.08 YPC and earning a trip to the Pro Bowl (albeit and alternate). Without the distractions of the “Randy Ratio”, he became much more productive on the ground by putting up 960 of his 1296 yards and 4 of his 5 touchdowns in the final 10 games. I am willing to bet that Bennett will have more opportunities to take it to the house this year. Michael Bennett does not come without question marks though. In late March he suffered a stress fracture in his left foot which required surgery to repair. Foot and toe injuries sometimes have a way to lingering around and can give fantasy owners HUGE headaches. He is supposed to start running again next week (late May) and should be ready for camp…we’ll have to wait and see. But because of his solid production, even higher upside, and no seeming complications from surgery, Bennett is an excellent pick at this point in the draft to couple with the best RB in the league, LaDanian Tomlinson. 2.11 RB Eddie George (via trade)By TC Cannon of Youth Fantasy Football Before reviewing the George pick, please allow me to share the 'trade analysis '. As much as I (really) enjoy trading up for a targeted player - this time it was a bit different. As mentioned at 2.09, George was not the original target.In spite of a 1400 yard, 14 score season, my Eddie George is no longer considered a prime RB. He is an old shoe that fits well, but has lost much of his shine and fantasy appeal. The NFL does that to players - it wears them down and wears them out a month at a time - sometimes even game to game. I needed RB George enough to 'buy' him via trade. He has been a productive runner who has never missed a game or carried the ball fewer than 315 times in his seven-year career. The Titans' offense is rightfully built around him. He is durable and can be dominant. And, he is also a lesser player today than he was a few seasons ago. If not George as RB2, who? A later drafted Staley? A forgotten Dunn? A gambling Zereoue or Mack or Stewart? Certainly the Titan is preferred ahead of the balance of the remaining RBs. 2.11 RB Eddie GeorgeBy Guest Thomas 'Hurricane Samurai' SimonsEddie George is an intriguing pick to say the least.Many "experts" feel that he is on the tail end of hiscareer. The fear is that Tennessee will look to RobertHolcombe more often, especially in goal linesituations. While Eddie's rushing totals may decline,it is this writer's opinion that his touchdown tallieswill once again reach double digits and 1000 yards isby no means impossible. Eddie did handle 68% of theteam's carries. He is a warrior and workhorse that notonly plays, but plays hard even when injured.Some factors must be considered when reviewing George here. One, Eddie is not the team's #1 RB, Shaun Alexander is. So 1000 yards and double digit TDs out of your second back is solid. Two, total rushing yardage is divided by 10, thus George benefits from the league's scoring system when you can maximize his yardage and combine it with his touchdown totals. Three, the remaining talent pool drops off drastically at the running back spot and workhorses disappear.I understand that George is in the twilight of hiscareer. I also understand that the owner choosing himstruggled while going away from Donovan McNabb tochoose George. The bottom line is that Eddie Georgemust post numbers similar to his 2002 totals (1165yards rushing, 255 yards receiving on 36 receptions,and 14 total touchdowns). If he does, he will pay hugedividends. If he doesn't, this team will be in troubleas they don't have another draft pick until the fifthround (5.04). 2.12 QB Daunte CulpepperBy Shannon O'Leary of FanExI watched Culpepper in action quite a few times last year and he looked bad. However, he was the number 2 scoring QB in this system. He was second only to Gannon and only by a couple of points. I am betting that Culpepper will be at least as good as last year. He should have another year of maturity as should Moss. The FAD is about total points and Culpepper was number 6. This was a hard choice, as I have been burned by Culpepper in the past. On the upside, Culpepper can take a pounding so I should have a solid QB for the whole year. He runs a lot of goal line sneaks. I really would have liked to grab Eddie George here, but Cannon moved in front of me. 2.12 QB Daunte CulpepperBy Guest David Chesher It's rare that a team gets to take the first RB of the draft as well as the first QB of the draft. I can promise the readers this: This will NOT happen in your drafts! That being said, choosing Daunte Culpepper as the #1 QB is very gutsy, but altogether brilliant. I absolutely LOVE this pick! Culpepper hasn't quite been the same since he got popped in the nose in early 2001. While a broken nose didn't sideline him, he started to get a bit more antsy when the pressure was on. You look at his numbers his first year as a starter, he was absolutely unstoppable. His second year, he started to slip. Then came the knee injury...and many wondered if he'd make it back. Then there was a stretch in mid-season last year that Daunte was a new definition of horrible. But Head Coach Mike Tice succeeded brilliantly where many coaches would have failed. In week 10, Daunte was benched for Todd Bozo Bouman. That got the Big Man's attention. He finished the year very strong after that, going over 250 in passing yards 4 times in his last 7 games. He also had at least 2 touchdowns (passing, rushing or combined) in 6 of his last 7 games. Clearly, Culpepper has gotten his game back. And clearly, he is the most dangerous QB in the Fantasy Football World. Having Randy Moss at your disposal doesn't hurt a bit, either. There are so many good reasons to have Culpepper as your QB. 1 - Culpepper will not get pulled out of any games due to blowouts, because Minnesota's defense won't hold anyone under 30 2 - Minnesota will very, very rarely go to a strictly running attack in a game because, again, their defense is horrid 3 - No way in heck that Culpepper runs any risk of being on the bench late in the season, because Minnesota is NOT going to win their division 4 - Randy Moss 5 - During the Fantasy Playoffs, Daunte will be facing "defenses" like Seattle, Chicago, Kansas City and Arizona. Those teams ranked 28th, 25th, 32nd and 29th respectively in total defense last year. I'll give you a moment to wipe away the drool. With a big, new contract to keep him happy, Daunte is going to be very focused on one thing: winning. He's a fierce competitor, a man-child, and one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL. Great speed, rocket arm and tough as nails. His decision making could be better, but it will improve. The only thing that stands between him and Offensive Player of the Year is Randy Moss. Even in a down year for Randy, Daunte put up huge numbers. He's an absolute lock for 3800 yards in the air, another 500 on the ground. I would also expect to easily see 25 passing touchdowns along with 5+ rushing TDs. It's gonna be a great year for Daunte, and Shannon O'Leary will reap the benefits every single week. Most fantasy drafts will see more than 1 QB go in the first 2 rounds, so I would expect most people to see Culpepper go between picks 5-12 depending on scoring system. Getting Culpepper in the 2nd round is the steal of the century. 2.12 QB Daunte CulpepperBy Guest Joe Thomas The fact that Dante Culpepper was the first quarterback taken in this years draft is not surprising. He is simply the prototypical fantasy football quarterback. He is a yardage monster both through the air and on the ground. His ability to do both separates him from other highly ranked quarterbacks who might be considered sexier picks. Culpepper rushed for 603 yards and 10 touchdowns, which came to five fewer fantasy points than Michael Vick contributed by running the ball last season.Culpepper should improve this year. With Bryant McKinnie in line at left tackle for the full season and a very respectable running game developing, there should be a little more time in the pocket this year to deliver the ball. We might not see him surpass the high octane numbers he put up in 2000 (4400 total yards, 40 total touchdowns), but there is a chance he could come close to that. The $102 million vote of confidence Culpepper received recently should not hurt either.The downside for Culpepper is that he is a turnover monster as well. He had 23 interceptions and 9 fumbles last year with eight games of two interceptions or more. This may not kill him fantasy wise at -1 per interception, but it does reduce his touchdown total by killing drives and taking the offense off the field. Also, outside of Randy Moss, the wide receivers leave a lot to be desired. The addition of Nate Burleson WR in the 3rd round of this years NFL draft will help if he develops quickly. I watched this guy play in college and he certainly has NFL talent. 3.01 RB Duce Staley By Shannon O'Leary of FanEx RB George would have been nice, but Staley will have to do. Buckhalter is a concern, as is the Eagles lack of commitment towards Duce. I have a need to grab asecond RB, and I like Staley more than Dunn, A.Smith and the rest. Staley looked liked he recovered well from his foot injury. I think the Eagles will keep him around, as they are close to making a Super Bowl appearance. Having two quality running backs in the NFL is a luxury that most teams want. With that all said, I think with the return of McNabb that Staley could put up top 10 numbers. That would be nice from the 21st back taken in this draft.I seriously considered grabbing a wideout here, but know that when round 4 comes back to me there will not be a back the quality of Staley on the board. 3.01 RB Duce Staley By Guest Brian Moore of Football Joint Duce Staley has been in the NFL six years. After a bench warming rookie year, he rushed for 1065 yards and 1236 yards the next two years. In 2000, he was injured and only had 79 carries. In 2001, the Eagles drafted Correll Buckhalter to replace him or "fill in" should Duce not fully recover from his injury. Correll came out of the gates strong in 2001 with 59 carries for 285 yards, in the first 3 games. After that point, Duce took over and ran for 583 yards. Again, coach Andy Reid gave Correll the "lion's share" of the carries thelast week of the season and Correll ran 20 times for 89 yards. To sum it all up: In 4 games Buckhalter ran for 374 yards. In the other 12 games, Staley ran for 560 yards. The Eagles were all set to strongly consider Correll as their starter in 2002. Yet, Buckhalter got hurt in the offseason so they drafted raw prospect BrianWestbrook. Brian sorely needed NFL experience and to learn theNFL game. He got a few carries each game and rushed for minor yards that season. While Brian was learning the NFL game and Correll was recuperating, Duce rushed for 1030 yards in 2002.In 2003, all 3 runningbacks should be healthy. Will Duce be the featured back? Will Correll return to his previous form? Is Brian better with a year "under his belt"? I don't believe anyone knows the answers to these questions. I'm not sure we'll know in August... never mind mid-May. The Eagles' execs quoted in newspapers indicate a fondness for Duce, but what else would you expect them to say about their only running back that is ready to play in the NFL? It seems apparent to me the Eagles drafted these two youngsters for a reason. 3.02 WR Eric Moulds (via trade)By Commissioner Jerome Hickerson of FanEx Text 3.02 WR Eric MouldsBy Guest Coyle Farmer Mr. Hickerson chose Eric Moulds at 3.02 as his choice to be the first WR taken behind the "Big 3". He certainly fills the bill. Moulds caught 100 balls last year for 1292 yards with 10 TDs and was a top-5 WR.The only concern I have this season is if he'll get adequate support from the #2 WR position. Peerless Price had that job last year and recorded virtually the same stats as Moulds. This season, the duty falls on young Josh Reed. He did well as the 3rd wideout last year as a rookie, but it's going to be a lot different lining up against better CBs instead of the nickel backs he faced last season. If Reed can hold up his end of the bargain, I look for Moulds to have another stellar campaign. My guess is Reed will do just that, and allow Moulds to more than earn his draft slot. Jerome now has a nice start on his team with Ahman Green & Moulds, and has made two deals, as well. Essentially, he skipped the 2nd round where the RBs were of so-so value and still got Moulds with the 3.2. He added two more picks in the 3rd which will give him a numerical advantage after 3 rounds. Not only that, it gives him more positional options. He still has a pick in the 4th and 5th rounds, too, before he'll miss a turn in the 6th. A solid strategy that should serve him well, IMO. 3.03 Warrick Dunn (via trade)By Greg Kellogg of Fantasy AsylumWow - a third RB before you take your first WR or QB? What are you thinking Kellogg? Well, first of all - I am thinking that the rules force me to start two RBs and ALLOW me to start three. That means I MUST have three starting RBs and WANT to have four.I realize that WRs will also be at a premium but feel there are enough of them out there that I can hit on a couple sleepers if I can only nab one legitimate Top 10 guy. And the way this draft is going, that should be fairly obtainable.I am figuring on 5-7 QBs, 1-3 TEs and 6-10 WRs all going before my next pick (4.07). That should leave me with a shot at either a top QB or a top WR.But why trade up for Warrick Dunn - I mean he shares carries with a first round pick for goodness sake. I like trends - I believe end of season trends portend things for the coming year. I used that philosophy to select RB William Green in the second round. Over the last six games, in the FanEx scoring system, Clinton Portis (my first round pick) was the top-rated RB. William Green was eighth and Warrick Dunn was 15th. Dunn was 15th despite missing most of the Minnesota game because of a high ankle sprain andsat out the next week and still managed to finish at 15 due in large part to three games where he scored 20+ points. A point per reception aids his value greatly! 3.03 Warrick DunnBy Guest David HumphriesWarrick had a very successful college career at Florida State with three consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. At 5'9" and 180 lbs. he wasn't the prototypical running back that teams may have been looking for as their franchise back when he came into the NFL. While he may not have been able to sustain 300 plus carries a year because of his size, Tampa knew he could catch the ball and utilized those strengths to Dunn's advantage.In 5 years at Tampa Dunn averaged just over 200 carries and 50 receptions per year. Hard to achieve stud running back status with those numbers. Still, he made the most of his opportunities . He had two 1,000 yard seasons and 26 total td's. Also not the kind of numbers you want out of your top running backs on your fantasy team. He was a serviceable back while with the Bucs but we all know the focus was on the defense especially with Dungy as head coach. Probably the best thing for Warrick's career was to head out of Tampa and get a fresh start somewhere else. That happened when he signed with Atlanta last year. Dunn thought he would for sure increase his chances of being a star in the NFL with being the number one back in Atlanta. Boom, the roof just fell in and the Falcons drafted T.J. Duckett in the 2002 draft. Warrick probably thought he was back in Tampa. Surely though with the big contract he signed he would be the man, at least that's what he thought.In his first year with the Falcons he only saw 20 plus carries 6 times and ended up with 230 carries for 927 yards. That averages out to 4.0 yards a carry which ain't bad. He finished with 1304 total yards and 9 td's. Not bad for the touches he got. As much as I'd like to see Warrick's carries increase it may be difficult this year. With Vick, Duckett and now Peerless Price added to the mix Dunn could possibly see less carries. Price may actually help Dunn as Vick may not be so quick to run and look to pass and that could help Warrick in the receptions department. I think he could see an increase in his catches. Still, Atlanta is a young budding team on the upside and Dunn can still be a vital part of all that.Lastly, in Dunn's defense, while he may never achieve stud status in the NFL as a running back he will surely help in his team's quest to win the Super Bowl. By the way, Atlanta is my longshot to win it all this year. In fantasy terms, Dunn is an excellent 3rd back to have on your fantasy team. I have him as my 3rd on a dynasty team. If your league reward points for receptions he provides that added bonus. In today's fantasy football world running backs are gone quick and early in most drafts . I still think Dunn has all the tools, except maybe size, to be even more productive than he was last year. Yet, only time will tell that story and maybe a little luck for him. Atlanta's offense will improve this year and with Warrick having a year under his belt in the system he could end up being quite a surprise, fantasy wise!! 3.04 Player (via trade)By Commissioner Jerome Hickerson of FanExText 3.04 Player By Guest David Gonos of CBS Sportsline.comText 3.05 Player By Scott Engel of CBS Sportsline Text 3.05 Player By Guest Chris WebbText 3.06 Player (via trade)By Tony Holm of Fantasy SharksText 3.06 Player By Guest Russ KnightText 3.07 Player By Brian Hulett of TheWinningDriveand Ryan Houston of Fantasy Asylum Text 3.07 Player By Guest Dan HenryText 3.08 Player By John Hansen of The Guru Report Text 3.08 Player By Guest Gus ElmashniText 3.09 Player By Emil Kadlec of FF Pro Forecast Text 3.09 Player By Guest Hunter CatlettText 3.10 Player By Commissioner Jerome Hickerson of FanExText 3.10 Player By Guest Lee HauensteinText 3.11 Player By William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFL Text 3.11 Player By Guest Steve SiniskiText 3.12 Player By David Dodds of Footballguys.com Text 3.12 Player By Guest Jeff WrubelText
John Maddens Lunchbox
Footballguy
If that is the case that is outrageous.How could Canidate go before the 6th round in ANY comp, let alone an experts comp? He will be lucky to see 200 carries and will split time with Betts and Watson.Only 4 Receivers are off the board and 3 quarterbacks. I would have thought Shockey or Gonzalez would have been considered before Trung Canidate.Something seriously wrong with either this comp or this drafter if he takes Trung Canidate in the 3rd.I don't care if he gets 2000 yards and 20 TDS he was not value at this pick.
Brave Sir Robin
Footballguy
Wow. This couldn't be going any better for Dodds. He's got some great picks at WR available.Canidate will be a great #2 RB. He's fast and can and will catch.
Vicktimized
Footballguy
I don't see a problem with taking Canidate where he did. Sure, value wise the numbers don't work out, but you can get into trouble being a slave to value; Do you think Canidate would have been there come next round? Certainly no guarantee, with this massive run on RBs.Bottom line, if you like Canidate enough, you take him now, b/c you may not get another chance.
I don't think I would do that trade if I was Dodds. In this format, he's minimizing his risk, by not keeping his eggs all in one basket so to speak, but his eggs are going to be a lot smaller now. I guess he's assuming that he's set at RB now, and can afford to trade down, behind the WR run and get some guys he has targetted who will slip through the cracks, but it seems that he could have gotten better value for his picks than this...
Joe T
Footballguy
The draft is won in rounds 5-7.I don't know that I could have given up 3.12 AND 4.10, but I like the idea of grabbing a lot of poeple in those mid rounds. Those are the rounds where you have the best chance of grabbing a sleeper who ends up in the top 5. You still need to have 3 really solid players though to carry you and one sleeper to win it. It is really risky IMO and I would really like to hear the logic behind it.
DD must not like his options here. I think he has a bunch of WR's close together and in this format he gets his best every week. He doesn't like the RB's available here and doesn't want to burn a pick on a QB (even though Manning, Warner, Gannon) are available....He will have decent depth, but needs a few guys to fall. Not having a 3rd/4th round pick could hurt, even with the extra picks in low/middle rounds...I'm not sold on the trade yet, I actually though he might try to shop one of those picks, but bam-they're both gone...
Adding, this draft will be won/lost with this multitude of picks.8 picks from 5.2-8.1 to go with his core of Barber/Taylor...5.2, 5.12, 6.1, 6.3, 6.9, 7.4, 7.12, 8.1I don't think he is done dealing either though. There are going to be a lot of trades yet. If a guy is falling he has targeted, he could still trade back up to get them if necessary....Cannon loved the trade and although after these 2 picks he won't be drafting for awhile, his core could be excellent. Alexander, George, Moss, 3.12, 4.1
Joe T
Footballguy
As for the Kellogg trade, well... not a great trade, but I like the pick. Dunn was the best RB on the board and now Kellogg is stacked at RB. And Holm who made a great trade, made a terrible pick IMO. He has 2 great backs in Tomlinson and Bennett and he went for a guy who was a third string running back last year and who is moving into a murky at best running back situation. If Holm would have grabbed Hambrick or Hearst or Pittman, I would put him clearly in the drivers seat at this point. Now, his RBs are not much better than the Kellogg's or Hullett/Houston's or Hansen's.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I like the trade for the following reasons:1)This draft is so early, you want more depth in the middle rounds. You cannot trade post draft or play the waiver wire, so you want to stack talent.2)Most non-qb's taken from here on out will be very inconsistent. Since you don't pick starters, more is better.3)Most people see qb's 5-12 as pretty even. So it is is your best interest to take #11 and #12 rather than 4 and 12.4)There will some good possession/high catch (Troy Brown/Rice/Smith wrs available later.)5)Most importantly: Dodds is not handcuffed into position drafting. If he drafts a QB and a Wr here at 3.12 and 4.1 he forces his hand. He may have to go WR/QB again because it is a long wait for 6.1 to 7.12. Now he doesn't get stuck at the tail end of a run at a position he needs.He has at this moment little value : Is Gannon definitively better than Manning, Brooks, Farve or Trent Green? Is Ward much better than Holt, Krob, Coles and Booker? Now with 7 picks in rounds 5-7 as opposed to the last pick in the third and 4 in 4-7, he has significantly more flexibility. Finally, If he wins, he also gets to promote the theory that the draft s won in the middle rounds- where the experts find the gold. He does run a site with a premium service, so that will sell more stuff in 2004.
And I overpayed for Dunn? I understand that a drop of sixteen spots from the mid-5th round to late in the sixth is big but how big is it really? Tony Holm ended up taking Canidate - might he have taken Dunn? I don't know. Personally I like Dunn's situation in Atlanta better than Canidate's in Washington.I was accused of panicing but I see a lot more value in a third and fourth round pick than in an extrp sixth and seventh. Maybe it's just me, but I believe that there are as many hits as misses in the middle rounds so giving up a third and a fourth is a huge risk. Still David did win this contest last year so I will bow to his reasoning on this trade.
Man, I just re-read my posts and I can't believe I got that defensive. My apologies.I traded for Dunn because I believed he would be gone before I got him. I kept my fourth round pick which, as I stated will allow me to select a top 10 QB or WR and though I gave up my fifth round pick, I will now have three picks between 6.07 and 7.06 to solidify what I believe to be a pretty solid start. As for the Challenge - I am not certain David and Joe want me doing that now that I no longer am part of a free site. I had a lot of fun with it last year and certainly may do it again, but I think I better do it on my own site this year. Sorry.So, with less than three rounds completed, four of the 12 participants have three RBs (which is another reason I thought I needed to trade up - I believed that either Engel OR Holms might go for their third back - Holm did, Engel did not - and I really believed Hickerson would go for his second). But once again, I seem to generate controversy with my trades/picks/strategy - all the better because that generates conversation which is always good.
Kleck.
Footballguy
Either way I like it. He'll be able to get some good players there. One or two great ones will fall and be some nice steals. And most of all I like the depth he'll be able to have and IMO that is real important in a league like this. I also like the trade for TC though. Five of the top 36 picks is a great way to start your draft if you are willing to sacrifice some depth for it. If those five players stay healthy, he'll be a tough team to beat.
I understand both DD & TC's rationale for the trade, and think barring multiple injuries (above the norm) that both teams should do well this year in FAD. That being said, I love what TC has going for him, two good RB's, a top 3 WR, and TWO PICKS UPCOMING with quality at QB,TE(I know, too early possibly), & 2nd tier WR available. Also remember that late round picks can come thru with a solid season.(Last year took D. Driver in the 13th in 2-12 team redraft leagues. That being said, DD will have 7 picks in 5-7 rounds, with plenty of depth this year at the QB position to chose from. Plus he also has two good RBs on his roster. The answer for DD IMHO depends who drops into his lap in rounds 5-7 whether the trade was worthwhile. My $.02original member #84- 6 day power outage prevented early signup
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David Dodds
Administrator
Cannon gave up:Round 5, Pick 2 Draft PickRound 6, Pick 3 Draft PickRound 6, Pick 9 Draft PickRound 7, Pick 4 Draft PickDodds gave up:Round 3, Pick 12 Draft PickRound 4, Pick 1 Draft PickRound 9, Pick 12 Draft PickRound 11, Pick 12 Draft PickHere is the logic from my side:1. When a draft becames so RB intensive as this draft has become, my hand was becoming very forced for the 3.12 and 4.01 picks. The logic is to scoop up a great QB and WR (and I fully expect TC to do just that), but then where is my third RB going to come from (overall 60 or 61?). If I was to take my third RB here, I believe that would be wasting the pick in that RB has no value at this moment. 2. By not shaking things up, I basically felt that at best I would have an average draft. After all these picks, I clearly have the ability to win this thing if I pick well.3. With all these picks, I will be ahead of all runs (if I choose to do that)4. With all these picks, I can likely package combinations of picks AFTER players I like get selected. This affords me outstanding maneuverability during the draft of the sweet spot.5. I feel like I manuevered perfectly to get exactly what I wanted. I used the first two picks to overpay slightly on a position that most will overpay a lot for. I then moved down to a spot where I can get a lot of quality players (and I get their best performances each week). I don't have to figure out when Darrell Jackson will have a great game. I get it when it happens.6. The Pick Value Calculator gives me a HUGE advantage in this trade and since I programmed the code behind this I believe it is telling me the truth. (1674 vs 1810 for an 8% advantage).7. By deviating from a normal draft routine, my picks are BIG unknowns. I can do virtually anything as I will have 10 players chosen within the top 85. Everyone else will have 7. Maintaining flexibility has tremendous worth in my opinion as you don't get caught up in player runs.8. What fun is it writing reviews on the early picks? I now get to write reviews on PLAYERS I LOVE in the heart of the draft.I could go on and on, but you get the point. Was this fair trade to TC? Definitely. He now ends up with 5 of the first 37 players. He has an excellent chance to win with that start. In fact I believe this is a case where both of our teams will be better because we will both be drafting differently than the other 10 owners. One item that I think everyone will find amusing was when TC and I were negotiating the terms of the deal (he eventually accepted the deal exactly as it was first proposed), that I offered to completely switch rosters and picks and that I would take Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Randy Moss and picks 36 and 37 and he could have my whole team.And I stand by that. I believe I could also win (or be competitive) with that start too. But in all honesty I am glad he took the original deal giving me these 10 picks by pick 85. Now it is up to me to not waste them on duds this year.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Who is so valuable?Horn, Ward, Holt at WR? Warner, Manning at QB?Yes those people would have helped this team a great deal, but then who would I have as my RB #3 when I pick again at #60/61?I refuse to take RB #3 right now as I think people have massively overpaid for the likes of Dunn, Canidate, Hambrick, etc. Is Warner at 36 more valuable than Favre at 63? I think people generally want STARS on their team because in all other leagues it is painful trying to figure out if you should start Keyshawn Johnson or Darrell Jackson or Quincy Morgan each week. I don't have to do that at all. I just have to have a solid team and I get the best performances every week.This is one of those trades that I think may look a little crazy this second, but I believe will look great after my 10 selections are in the books at pick 85. Well that actually implies I won't be trading again soon...LOL. ROTFLMAO over the magic beans reference. I think that's exactly what I got. It might look silly now, but when I am taking all the gold later we can relook at this.Fe-Fi-Fo-Fum, I smell the blood of back to back FAD championships
Going back to earlier posts regarding the abnormal RB emphasis in the rules; I also agree With DD & others that you play by the rules in order to win in that league. I further concur with them that the rules should be changed to reflect team values. An NFL team certainly places more value on the other skill position players, so why not try to mimic the NFL better in the fantasy league rules? We changed some rules in a 12 team redrafter of 10 year seasoned veterans last year to deemphasize the RB position , and ALL THE LEAGUE MEMBERS enjoyed the draft & the season.(I was the commish, so I pushed for change)I further think that the change of the rules is better for the general fantasy enthusiast to gauge player values in the" more generally accepted rules" of fantasy football. In particular the novices to the game would benefit & probable respect the input from the MASTERS better IMO.
Don't you find it stragne that David and Joe rank Tiki and Taylor #14 and #13 overall on their site with the expert ranking page. But yet in the draft they picked them for RB#11 and RB#12. Maybe they should change their ranking page to reflect what they really think. If they followed their sheet they should have drafted J.Lewis and Dillon. Hmmmmmm
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David Dodds
Administrator
The FGB rankings don't count 1 pt per reception. Our rankings also count 1 pt per 10 yards rushing/reciving vice 1 pt per 15 yards rushing/receiving in FanEx. This is comparing apples and oranges in my opinionTiki Barber was the 6th best RB in the FanEX FAD scoring last year among RBs.
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dparker713
Footballguy
First off, one of the cardinal rules of FF is to know your point system. This league gives point per reception and 15 yards per point. As David pointed out in his write up on Fanex, Tiki finished 6th in that format last year. Second, the rankings on the site are supposedly a consensus between David and Joe, and while they may have very similar rankings, they wont be identical. Finally, Taylor has the talent, though probably not the supporting cast, to be the number 1 runningback this year. Not top 10, not top 5; #1 overall. I dont think either Lewis or Dillion are capable of that.
David Dodds
Administrator
Oh you have to love the banter that goes on during these drafts. I stand by what I said earlier:1. Kellogg should have waited to see if Dunn actually got picked.2. I had not consumed 10 Mickey's Big Mouths when I traded with TC.3. I have every intention of winning this league again even from the last position in the draft.4. Greg Kellogg can recover from the Dunn pick and still win this thing.5. TC improved his chances of winning if his Core 5 stay healthy and produce to expectations.6. My trade gives me an excellent chance to win this league provided my picks perform well to expectations.
Last year: Tiki- 69 receptions Taylor - 49 receptionsJ.Lewis - 47Dillon - 43The difference between Lewis and Barber is 22 points. However Tiki will lose a few goal line carries to Dayne while Dillon and Lewis do not lose those carries. 22 points is a lot if Tiki can stay healthy(Hammy, ankle, wrist) then its a good pick. However the 2 more receptions by Taylor jumps him over Lewis? The 4 more receptions jumps him over Dillon? Again Taylor has injury history where Dillon does not. Its your team and your draft, but you picked 2 players with injury history over 2 consistent players that you rank higher for a difference of 28 more points due to the reception rule.But thats what makes the draft the best part of the season, EVeryone has their opinions of who should go where 
BSR
Footballguy
Yes, and Boston too. Imagine having two of these guys.I agree that there aren't any RBs worth these spots but two of those WRs would look mighty good next to Tiki and Taylor. As far as I am concerned, Toefield is your backup to Taylor especially since you don't have to choose a starter and he can be had much later (your 10.1?).I am with you about not wanting Warner or Manning right now. So you have 5.02, 6.03, 6.09, 7.04, and 8.01 coming up. Looks like you are wanting 2 WRs, 1 QB, 1 RB, and an additional option at QB, TE, or WR. Without specifying anything particular, do you know what you are gonna do at 5.02?Man, losing BOTH of your next two picks was quite bold. You think you'll be laughing at me from the clouds but that goose is gonna rat you out to the giant.
You are picking and choosing your data rather arbitrarilly IMO. Barber lost carries to Dayne last season true, but those fell off as the season progressed and there is no inidication that this will change this year. On the other hand, Stacey Mack vultched 9 tds from Fred Taylor last year, and he is out of the picture. You mention the minor injuries Barber has sustained, but what about the 2 major knee surgeries (that phrase that gives FF owners the shakes, ACL) suffered in Lewis's career? Dillon doesnt have injury histories, but he has never had the kind of breakout seasons Taylor had in 98 or Barber in 02, despite never having been injured or splitting carries. This makes me question his upside. Lets not be selective with the data here.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
2001: Barber: 15th2002: Barber 7th2000: Dillon 17th2001: Dillon 6thWouldn't that be the same type of breakout? Dillon's had a 1400 yard season, a 13-TD season, and had a career high in receptions last year. He's got pretty decent upside IMO.
Selective with the data? How was I selective? Dillon is a stable consistent RB who will get the ball and get his yards. I never said he had a huge upside... Personally I don't draft players for upside, I draft players for consistentcy. If your roster has 2 RBs that you think have great upside, your doomed. My point is that I would much rather start a player that gives me 6 FF points each week then one that rotates between 3 one week and 9 the next. They both average 6 a week, but I'd rather have the consistency.Lets put it this way: If you had to play a 14 week FF schedule with only 2 players would you rather have Taylor, Barber or Lewis, DillonI'll go Lewis, Dillon
Two things, first in the FanEx format, consistancy is irrelevant. Total points are tallied at the end of the year so weekly fluxuation doesnt hurt you. In fact, it helps. You dont have to start particular players each week, so only your players that score the most on a given week are counted. This puts a premium on 'boom' players, which, I agree in a standard format isnt that desirable. Secondly the reason I pointed out the selective data was the way you phrased your point. In the Fanex format for 02, Tiki Barber was the #5 RB, Taylor was 12, Lewis was 13, and Dillon was 16. Now by those numbers alone there are 2 solid picks. To mitagate this you noted that Barber gives up goaline carries, but he gave up carries last year and still landed top 5. However, Fred Taylor gave up a ton of goalline carries that he wont lose this year (at least to Stacey Mack) so he has a huge potential for an upgrade. That is a solid reason to rank Taylor higher. I would have to argue that Barber and Taylor are locks over Lewis and Dillon in this format from a statistic point of view. Now injury wise, its really a crap shoot. My point was only Lewis has had sustained, career threatening injuries, although certainly there is an arguement to make on Barber and Taylor missing games for less serious things. Again, Fan-ex is relatively forgiving of missing a game here or there. The only rational I really would have for choosing Lewis and Dillon is assuming that the improvements of their teams will help their numbers make up the difference. Thats a judgement call.
David Dodds
Administrator
Now that made me laugh.....Funny stuff.General comments:Tiki Barber was a no brainer when I chose backs. I knew I wanted another back at 2.01 and looked at Fed Taylor, Stephen Davis, Corey Dillon, Charlie Garner and Jamal Lewis. I went over a bunch of different things and decided on Fred Taylor. Time will tell if that was the right decision. I also mulled over taking Marvin Harrison over any of these backs, but in the end hated how it forced my draft strategy going forward.Basically if you hate the Taylor pick it is because of his injury history. If you like the pick it is because Stacey Mack is gone. Either way I think it is an OK pick with the run of RBs that continued after it. Probably based on bias, but I have never been impressed with Dillon (and seeing him fail to punch it in a few times on the goal line last year that cost his team victories did nothing to raise his stock in my eyes). I also am souring on Stephen Davis a tad even though there is upside. I like Charlie Garner in the FanEx scoring and was hoping I could get him in a trade (made offer for him but offer was turned down).at 5.02 what will I pick? - I will be looking at value mostly. That is right at a good spot for QBs, WRs and the last of the starters at RB. With the 8 picks between the 5th-9th rounds? - Probably 3-5 WRs, 1-2 QBs and 1-2 RBs and 0-1 TE.Dodds, a man amongest the FanEx boys. Draft dominator.The Muhammad Ali of fantasy footbay.Fueled by Kellogg's flakes.The leader of the minions.Worshipped by all.Often imitated, never duplicated.
David Dodds
Administrator
Picks Update:3.1...O'Leary Staley, Duce PHI RB3.2...Hickerson Moulds, Eric BUF WR3.3...Kellogg Dunn, Warrick ATL RB3.4...Hickerson Vick, Michael ATL QB3.5...Engel McNabb, Donovan PHI QB3.6...Holm Canidate, Trung WAS RB3.7...Hulett | Houston Stewart, James DET RB3.8...Hansen Hambrick, Troy DAL RB3.9...Kadlec Burress, Plaxico PIT WR3.10.Hickerson Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE3.11.Del Pilar | Bonini Barlow, Kevan SFO RB3.12.Cannon Warner, Kurt STL QB4.1...Cannon Holt, Torry STL WR4.2...Del Pilar | Bonini Manning, Peyton IND QB 4.3...Cahill Horn, Joe NOS WR4.4...Kadlec Robinson, Koren SEA WR
