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For those still drafting: Where are you talking Bell/Conner? (1 Viewer)

This is a hidden cost of drafting a guy facing the uncertainty of a holdout/injury/suspension: It can warp the rest of your draft. You have to reach for a handcuff. Maybe you pass up a high-upside RB3 like Kerryon because you need to get a guaranteed Week 1 starter. I've also found in mocks that just disrupting the normal rhythm of my draft can cause me to make mistakes I wouldn't have otherwise made.

Not saying it's a reason to never do it. But it's something to be aware of.
Absolutely. 

And unrelated to Bell, it holds true for any high pick with an expensive handcuff. As talented as I think Davonta Freeman is, the high price of Coleman makes Freeman a bit less desirable.

that said, I took MGordon & thanks to his missing week 3 of the preseason to attend to a family matter, Eleker went from an “end of draft handcuff” to someone else’s 12th round pick (IDP, so more like a 8-9 rounder in standard D/ST formats) 

I suspect they believed MGordon to be hurt, and didn’t see the news that he was merely dealing with a personal matter.!

at some point in the next few weeks, assuming MGordon stays healthy (knock on wood) they’ll realize their mistake & I’ll try to trade from depth to acquire Eleker on the cheap, but if I’d known that was gonna happen I may have selected a different player. Hunt was on the board, and while i have him a tick below MGordon in my rankings, the price of Eleker would have made Hunt the better pick. 

Considering the handcuff value is always important when drafting RBs, and it’s an overlooked part of the game. 

 
Got a draft tonight - really just want to be either top 3 or at the bottom of the round to avoid the Bell situation altogether.

That said if I'm stuck with Bell at say, round pick 6, then Conner moves up to like RB28 on my list IF I have Bell.  Hate to have to waste that pick on a rental.

-QG

 
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Got a draft tonight - really just want to be either top 3 or at the bottom of the round to avoid the Bell situation altogether.

That said if I'm stuck with Bell at say, round pick 6, then Conner moves up to like RB28 on my list IF I have Bell.  Hate to have to waste that pick on a rental.

-QG
Drafting 4th tonight.

Hoping one of the top 3 take Barkley, Kamara, or Bell

 
Who do you take at 4 if it goes Gurley, DJohnson, Zeke?
Thats the millionn dollar question...well, no, not that much money this league is only about 800 for the winner...but still.

Im still strongly leaning Bell based on total season.  But waivering as I don't want to get beat out for Conner in the draft or waste a pick on a cuff like that.

non ppr so I doubt I go Kamara....so maybe take a shot on the rookie Barkley.  I really won't know til Im faced with that decision.

If I picked right now...it would probably be Bell.

 
Thats the millionn dollar question...well, no, not that much money this league is only about 800 for the winner...but still.

Im still strongly leaning Bell based on total season.  But waivering as I don't want to get beat out for Conner in the draft or waste a pick on a cuff like that.

non ppr so I doubt I go Kamara....so maybe take a shot on the rookie Barkley.  I really won't know til Im faced with that decision.

If I picked right now...it would probably be Bell.
I'm in a similar boat -- No. 5 in my non-PPR draft tonight. I think I would rank them Barkley>>Bell>>Kamara, but there's definitely a part of me that hopes it doesn't come to that just so I don't have to agonize over the decision.

 
Thats the millionn dollar question...well, no, not that much money this league is only about 800 for the winner...but still.

Im still strongly leaning Bell based on total season.  But waivering as I don't want to get beat out for Conner in the draft or waste a pick on a cuff like that.

non ppr so I doubt I go Kamara....so maybe take a shot on the rookie Barkley.  I really won't know til Im faced with that decision.

If I picked right now...it would probably be Bell.
I pick at 2 tonight in ppr, I will take Gurley or DJ.  If I had pick 4 it would be tough but I still think I would take Bell.

 
Is it? Owners seem to overpay for the perceived back-up way, way more often than it pays off.  I'd sooner punt on that strategy all together than use it even once per roster.
Depends on your roster size.

both of my leagues have deep benches.

if a handcuff is to be taken anywhere in the top 15 rounds I agree with you.

For a bench spot at the end of an 18 or 27 man

roster (like my IDP) I think it’s smart drafting.

i took Kelly with my 18th pick. My team is stacked, that insures my 1.01 pick.

in my IDP I don’t mind spending a FA pickup on Dixon to back up Collins. 

I would not spend the pick on Eleker for Gordon on the same team because he went in the 12th. Likewise I wouldn’t draft a Bell or as mentioned, a Davante Freeman because the h/c’s cost too much.

like any investment, it has to be the right price. It’s short-sighted to say never - if the insurance is cheap enough it’s foolish not to have them. 

I’ve won leagues both by having a high waiver claim & stealing someone else’s handcuff when injury struck, and I’ve won leagues by drafting my own handcuff when my own guy got hurt. Similarly I’ve lost leagues by not handcuffing.

It’s not a strategy for everyone. Each tO their own. 

 
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like any investment, it has to be the right price. It’s short-sighted to say never - if the insurance is cheap enough it’s foolish not to have them. 

I’ve won leagues both by having a high waiver claim & stealing someone else’s handcuff when injury struck, and I’ve won leagues by drafting my own handcuff when my own guy got hurt. Similarly I’ve lost leagues by not handcuffing.
:goodposting:

I play in shorter (5-man) bench leagues, so I tend not to draft handcuffs, but like you said, it's ultimately an investment decision. Take the likelihood of Bell getting injured and the value you think Conner would provide in that case, and compare it to the expected value of anyone you would draft instead of Conner at that spot.

My biggest pet peeve re: handcuffs are the people who think that, if they own Bell, they must handcuff him with Conner. Let's say you play in a shallow league with good options on the wire. The (relatively) guaranteed value you get from your RB3 (say, Lynch) is likely going to be significantly higher than the speculative value of Conner. On the other hand, if you play in leagues with more teams or deeper benches, at some point the equation is going to flip. Also, if it's later in the season, you're past your bye weeks and your top RBs are locked in, then the value of your RB3/4 declines, making a handcuff more valuable by comparison. If Lynch is never going to see your starting lineup outside of an injury to your top two, AND if you think that Conner as a starter has more value than Lynch, then you should absolutely get him as a handcuff. (Just using these names for illustrative purposes; don't @ me))  :P

 
:goodposting:

I play in shorter (5-man) bench leagues, so I tend not to draft handcuffs, but like you said, it's ultimately an investment decision. Take the likelihood of Bell getting injured and the value you think Conner would provide in that case, and compare it to the expected value of anyone you would draft instead of Conner at that spot.

My biggest pet peeve re: handcuffs are the people who think that, if they own Bell, they must handcuff him with Conner. Let's say you play in a shallow league with good options on the wire. The (relatively) guaranteed value you get from your RB3 (say, Lynch) is likely going to be significantly higher than the speculative value of Conner. On the other hand, if you play in leagues with more teams or deeper benches, at some point the equation is going to flip. Also, if it's later in the season, you're past your bye weeks and your top RBs are locked in, then the value of your RB3/4 declines, making a handcuff more valuable by comparison. If Lynch is never going to see your starting lineup outside of an injury to your top two, AND if you think that Conner as a starter has more value than Lynch, then you should absolutely get him as a handcuff. (Just using these names for illustrative purposes; don't @ me))  :P
Exactly - and it also effects the value of the RBs drafted in the top 3 rounds.

At this point if you draft Bell, your nuts are in a vice. You not only must draft Connor, but you’ll need to reach for him by at least a round because 11 other dudes are thinking about the shark move of stealing him from you. Or at least they should be if they’re worth their salt.

i had Priest Holmes the year he hurt his neck - I missed Larry Johnson by 1 pick in the 7th. I had fully intended on paying that steep price of a 1st & a 7th to lock up what at the time was an unbelievably productive backfield.

by week 2 or 3 the Johnson owner was realizing he had no value so long as Holmes was on the field. We had a trade in place verbally, but I got greedy and asked for too much in return, thinking he’d just counter. Instead he got irritated and nixed the deal. Ok, I thought - I’ll just get him cheaper the next week. 

Of course the next week Holmes got hurt & Larry Johnson became the best player in FFB. 

I got knocked out of the playoffs by team Larry Johnson & team LJ won it all. 

That was a good lesson in handcuffing for me. 

That was also about the only time I’d be willing to spend 2 picks on one player (essentially) because it was worth it.

it might be similar to Bell/Connor. 

 
Got a draft tonight - really just want to be either top 3 or at the bottom of the round to avoid the Bell situation altogether.

That said if I'm stuck with Bell at say, round pick 6, then Conner moves up to like RB28 on my list IF I have Bell.  Hate to have to waste that pick on a rental.

-QG
And...pick 4 it is :wall:

-QG

 
Imagine the ####### sweat you'd have to endure as a Bell owner once you enter the middle rounds of a draft. Conner went in the 11th to the non Bell owner in my main event draft two nights ago. I have another tonight and I expect him to creep into the 10th. I'm just not willing to play that game, someone else can deal the headache. It's not like you can get value on Bell anyway.

 
I think I was one of the first here and have reiterated that I'm finding somebody else in the first round of a twelve-teamer. I could find space for him in the second if I'm at the turn, but then the Headache of Handcuff: Conner's Predicament arises. 

 
This is a hidden cost of drafting a guy facing the uncertainty of a holdout/injury/suspension: It can warp the rest of your draft. You have to reach for a handcuff. Maybe you pass up a high-upside RB3 like Kerryon because you need to get a guaranteed Week 1 starter. I've also found in mocks that just disrupting the normal rhythm of my draft can cause me to make mistakes I wouldn't have otherwise made.

Not saying it's a reason to never do it. But it's something to be aware of.
This happened with me, Ezekiel, and BOTH draft and roster spots last year. 

Still finished second in the league with a Bell/Elliott combo.  

 
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I am old enough to remember a holding-out Emmitt Smith sliding to the 12 spot when he was holding out and missed the first 2 weeks.

Guy who drafted him start 0-4.  Proceeding to win 13 in a row.

-QG

 
Yeah, we mostly talk about minimizing risk, but the flip side is if you get these guys at a discount and they pan out they could be league winners

 
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QuizGuy66 said:
And...pick 4 it is :wall:

-QG
AB is a no-brainer, IMO.

Bell holds out = more passing

Bell comes back like last year = ineffective/limited, more passing

4 is a nice spot because 1-2-3 makes your decision for you.

be zen at 4. At this point I’d much rather go AB knowing I’d get a great RB on the way back (or even WR-WR-RB, though that’s riskier as that’s 6 picks at the turn)

good luck! Post up a rate my team later on the assistant coach forum & tag me. :)  

 
Yeah, we mostly talk about minimizing risk, but the flip side is if you get these guys at a discount and they pan out they could be league winners
No doubt Bell has massive upside. He wouldn’t be a top 3 pick otherwise.

I’m simply not willing to absorb that risk when I feel the reward for Gurley, Zeke, DJ or AB is comparable.

At 1.01 I very nearly selected Antonio Brown. It was a close call, but I’m old school & love RBs. I also don’t love the other Pittsburgh risk factors with an aging injury prone Roethlisberger. 

 
Kind of a bummer. I end up with the 4th pick, and I'm keeping JuJu. so I'm stuck reaching for Barkley unless someone above me is an idiot, which is entirely possible. 
That’s a tough call. I might even take Gordon. Or Fournette. Or Nuk.  :shrug:

i’m not a kamara guy - I want my RBs to get touches, and what he did with what, 7-8 carries a game? Seems unsustainable. 

I could be wrong. 

 
Ugh.

Just found out I have the 3rd pick in a 0.5 PPR about to start.  I'm down on Zeke and now with Bell I'm trying to figure out who I want less here but quite worried about for quite different reasons.  :unsure:

 
That’s a tough call. I might even take Gordon. Or Fournette. Or Nuk.  :shrug:

i’m not a kamara guy - I want my RBs to get touches, and what he did with what, 7-8 carries a game? Seems unsustainable. 

I could be wrong. 
That's kind of where I am. Gordon's knee scares me to some degree, but hes one of few work horse rbs out there. Fournette gets volume but concerned about his ankle. and speaking of unsustainable, see Nuk.

I always seem to mess my 1st rounder up. here I am thinking 6 months ago I cant go wrong, 1-3 pick for me. Now I'm stuck with an actual decision. 

I always seem to take who I "should" take rather than who I want to. passed up on Nuk last year for Dez.

 
Ugh.

Just found out I have the 3rd pick in a 0.5 PPR about to start.  I'm down on Zeke and now with Bell I'm trying to figure out who I want less here but quite worried about for quite different reasons.  :unsure:
3 is ideal. 

1-2 will make their choices, and you’ll get one of Zeke or DJ. 

Be happy. It’s a great pick either way. 

Zeke is a stud. He’s averaged over a TD  game and he’s likely pissed about last year. 

You’ll likely get DJ though, who I had a massive man-crush on as my RB2 in his huge season. He’s the focal point of what is likely to be a better offense than expected. 

 
3 is ideal. 

1-2 will make their choices, and you’ll get one of Zeke or DJ. 

Be happy. It’s a great pick either way. 

Zeke is a stud. He’s averaged over a TD  game and he’s likely pissed about last year. 

You’ll likely get DJ though, who I had a massive man-crush on as my RB2 in his huge season. He’s the focal point of what is likely to be a better offense than expected. 
I hear you and I'm trying not to let the fact that I'm a Giants fan color my perceptions but he's not a magician and that passign game does not look at all good enough to keep defenses honest.

Anyway, right now literally 1 minute from the draft, I'm hoping Gurley or DJ fall and if not, I'm going to take Zeke and have to root for a Cowboy all year.  :yucky:

 
That's kind of where I am. Gordon's knee scares me to some degree, but hes one of few work horse rbs out there. Fournette gets volume but concerned about his ankle. and speaking of unsustainable, see Nuk.

I always seem to mess my 1st rounder up. here I am thinking 6 months ago I cant go wrong, 1-3 pick for me. Now I'm stuck with an actual decision. 

I always seem to take who I "should" take rather than who I want to. passed up on Nuk last year for Dez.
I was overjoyed that I landed Gordon at 11. Don’t overpay for Eleker. 

Fourmette went 1.09, ODB 1.10, and I wanted Gordon the whole way. Again - we drafted the day after Gordon missed week 3 with “personal” so my league-mates were panicked. I saw a tweet saying it was a family matter & didn’t sweat it. 

I wouldn’t hesitate to grab a feature back from a top offense. Fournette’s ankle worries me even at a lighter weight, and his offense just isn’t as good as the Chargers. 

 
I hear you and I'm trying not to let the fact that I'm a Giants fan color my perceptions but he's not a magician and that passign game does not look at all good enough to keep defenses honest.

Anyway, right now literally 1 minute from the draft, I'm hoping Gurley or DJ fall and if not, I'm going to take Zeke and have to root for a Cowboy all year.  :yucky:
Bell went 2 and I got me some DJ! :excited:

 
I hear you and I'm trying not to let the fact that I'm a Giants fan color my perceptions but he's not a magician and that passign game does not look at all good enough to keep defenses honest.

Anyway, right now literally 1 minute from the draft, I'm hoping Gurley or DJ fall and if not, I'm going to take Zeke and have to root for a Cowboy all year.  :yucky:
As a Niner fan I’d never be able to take Zeke, but in that circumstance I would probably have to. 

I’m betting you’ll get DJ. 

Post the results in the asst coach & tag me! 

 
What I'll probably do is let draft dominator decide for me in terms of which RB is rated higher. I wont take Bell unless he reports tomorrow and I want take AB because  I have JuJu. and we dont trade draft choices.  

 
Okay - so I'm relieved to report that Bell actually went #1 (and NOT via autodraft). 

In the 12-teamer, the Bell owner was able to snag Conner with pick 13.01 (145th overall) - now there were about 4 autopickers and I would tend to describe it was a fairly casual league but it still gives you some idea.

I was able to get Zeke at 1.04 :excited:   Ended up with Rodgers at 2.09.  As usual I waited crazy long for WRs - Goodwin is my #1 :unsure:

Anyway wanted to give you guys some intel on what happened in a real draft and with a real handcuff.  Good luck!

-QG

 
AB is a no-brainer, IMO.

Bell holds out = more passing

Bell comes back like last year = ineffective/limited, more passing

4 is a nice spot because 1-2-3 makes your decision for you.

be zen at 4. At this point I’d much rather go AB knowing I’d get a great RB on the way back (or even WR-WR-RB, though that’s riskier as that’s 6 picks at the turn)

good luck! Post up a rate my team later on the assistant coach forum & tag me. :)  
Will post one up :) and thanks!  Bengals fan wasn't really in the mood to take AB - it's also 0.5 per reception so there's that.  Now if Bell was sitting there :/  well happily I don't have to find out.

-QG

 
No doubt Bell has massive upside. He wouldn’t be a top 3 pick otherwise.

I’m simply not willing to absorb that risk when I feel the reward for Gurley, Zeke, DJ or AB is comparable.

At 1.01 I very nearly selected Antonio Brown. It was a close call, but I’m old school & love RBs. I also don’t love the other Pittsburgh risk factors with an aging injury prone Roethlisberger. 
I agree. It sounds weird to say it in the first round, but I do think your goal should be minimizing risk. Busting on your first-rounder can be a league loser (not if you play the WW, of course).

I'm just saying that if you do have the stomach for risk and get a Top 5 talent outside the Top 5, the rewards can be big (ie, the guy upthread who got Bell and Zeke last year).

 
I ended up passing him up at #4 and went with Brown instead, half PPR. He went the pick after me at #5. I rode the Zeke roller coaster last year, and for the sake of my heart decided to stay off that train this year.
I get that feeling. I know I shouldn’t fall victim to recency bias, but that bitter taste tends to linger. ;)  

 
Ironically enough, given that I was the one who started the thread, he went No. 2 in both of my drafts, which meant that I, picking at No. 5 both times, didn't have to worry about it. Got Zeke in one, Saquon in another.

Good luck to everyone who ends up with him! May your Maalox bottles go untouched!  :scared:

 
Ironically enough, given that I was the one who started the thread, he went No. 2 in both of my drafts, which meant that I, picking at No. 5 both times, didn't have to worry about it. Got Zeke in one, Saquon in another.

Good luck to everyone who ends up with him! May your Maalox bottles go untouched!  :scared:
Considering Saquon at 4, but it seems like such a reach. 

I dont like Fournette much, Gordon concerns me, and Kamara I worry.about volume. I might just reach. hopefully he gets taken #2

 
Conner not actually drafted.  I had him ready to go a few times...but found others I liked a bit more.

We ended up being goofy for our last round and that will be a pick everyone will send to waivers that will process on Friday morning.

I have Conner as my #1 pickup...im 7th on the wire...reverse order of the draft...Bell owner is 9th...but have a feeling at least two of the other owners will snag him especially once we know more tomorrow.

 
Considering Saquon at 4, but it seems like such a reach. 
Saquon is definitely not a reach at 4. He has a high floor and a high ceiling as well. He's one of 5-6 RBs in the league who's pretty much guaranteed three-down work, and he is by all accounts a generational talent.

Gaming this out over the past few days, I found that Barkley was pretty much my mesh point with Bell. If it had come down to the two of them, that would have been a tricky decision. I think I might have leaned Barkley precisely for the safety (ironic to think that the rookie is safer than the proven vet who has done it throughout his career).

But with Bell out of the picture, as he was in my draft tonight? Barkley was a no-brainer for me at 5 (over AB and Kamara in non-PPR).

 
SameSongNDance said:
Imagine the ####### sweat you'd have to endure as a Bell owner once you enter the middle rounds of a draft. Conner went in the 11th to the non Bell owner in my main event draft two nights ago. I have another tonight and I expect him to creep into the 10th. I'm just not willing to play that game, someone else can deal the headache. It's not like you can get value on Bell anyway.
I took Conner at 11.09. The Bell owner took Will Fuller in the 11th over Conner. 

 
Ironically enough, given that I was the one who started the thread, he went No. 2 in both of my drafts, which meant that I, picking at No. 5 both times, didn't have to worry about it. Got Zeke in one, Saquon in another.

Good luck to everyone who ends up with him! May your Maalox bottles go untouched!  :scared:
Forgot to include: Conner went at 11.02 in a 14-team non-PPR league (to the Bell owner) and went undrafted in a 14-team 0.5 PPR (though he has already been picked up). He was so off my radar that I didn't even realize he had slipped through (I actually could have sworn I saw him get drafted). Probably should have taken a flier with my last pick.

 

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