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For those still drafting: Where are you talking Bell/Conner? (1 Viewer)

zftcg

Footballguy
I know there are a bunch of current threads on Bell, but I wanted to sidestep discussions of his dynasty value, impact on the Steelers or Week 1 projections and focus on two questions:

If you will be drafting in the next 72 hours, and assuming no new updates before your draft, how much (if at all) will you drop Bell, and where will you target Conner to ensure you get him?

 

Peak

Footballguy
Good topic for non keeper redraft lgs. Is Bell still a first and pick?  Anyone feeling antsy in picking him as their first pick?  What happens if he doesn't sign his tender?  Is he to keep sitting?  

My draft is tonight, and honestly I'm staying away.  Maybe Conners as a late and flyer.

 

theToes

Footballguy
took Bell 2nd overall in a 12 team ppr redraft and picked up Connor in the 12th.

No regrets. He'll report and be the stud that he is.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
I'm picking 5th in a 14-team standard tomorrow night, and my nightmare is that the first four are Gurley/DJ/Barkley/AB and I'm deciding between Bell and Zeke. Both have big red flags IMO and I'd rather offload that risk onto someone else. I might even consider Gordon at that spot. 

ETA: Duh, blanked on Kamara.

 
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Interseptopus

Footballguy
Good topic for non keeper redraft lgs. Is Bell still a first and pick?  Anyone feeling antsy in picking him as their first pick?  What happens if he doesn't sign his tender?  Is he to keep sitting?  

My draft is tonight, and honestly I'm staying away.  Maybe Conners as a late and flyer.
I'm picking 4th and it's very likely I'm stuck with bell or AB. I may very well take AB ot Barkley in that scenario. I dont want anything to do with this circus. 

I draft Wednesday evening, so I have a shot at knowing if he reported or not. 

 

zftcg

Footballguy
I think it's less that I would reach for Conner as that I would make sure to get an RB3/4 who I knew would have early season value. That would mean guys like Hyde over guys like Kerryon. Conner is obviously someone who would have early-season value, but I wouldn't automatically prioritize him over the rest of that group.

 
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zftcg

Footballguy
Good topic for non keeper redraft lgs. Is Bell still a first and pick?  Anyone feeling antsy in picking him as their first pick?  What happens if he doesn't sign his tender?  Is he to keep sitting?  

My draft is tonight, and honestly I'm staying away.  Maybe Conners as a late and flyer.
Don't know your league, but I suspect if you wait that long you won't get him.

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
Jesus, I knew something happened when all the Bell threads were bumped. I have him in two leagues and no Conner so hope this doesn’t pose a problem. 

 

Truebluey

Footballguy
If you're worried about Bell as a top 2 pick, don't be. From a sport psychology perspective, this is a smart move on Bell's part. Makes his feelings plain to the organization.

Gets his spokespeople out there pumping up the idea of a prolonged holdout.  My guess he comes in and signs the tender Wednesday.  

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
theToes said:
took Bell 2nd overall in a 12 team ppr redraft and picked up Connor in the 12th.

No regrets. He'll report and be the stud that he is.


About the same ... picked 3rd in a PPR ... Gurley/D. Johnson went ahead of them and I took Bell 3rd ... then took Conner in the 13th to lock up the backfield.

With the recent news I would take Conner in the 11th if I had Bell, though.  Not going to draft him any more (one share in 10 leagues is enough of Bell for me, too much risk).

 
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Rove!

Footballguy
rockaction said:
I know Zeke lost Dez and Witten and will face stacked boxes, but that guy can flat move the rock. He should, in his youth, not be out of the top five.  
He also lost Travis Frederick

 

kyoun1e

Footballguy
Two drafts next two days and have the 2nd and 3rd pick in each.

Understanding the potential for holdout, the touch numbers last year, his crap production week one vs CLE last year, I'm definitely thinking of taking Gurley/DJ/Zeke over him. 

Play it safe.

 

ponchsox

Footballguy
zftcg said:
I'm picking 5th in a 14-team standard tomorrow night, and my nightmare is that the first four are Gurley/DJ/Barkley/AB and I'm deciding between Bell and Zeke. Both have big red flags IMO and I'd rather offload that risk onto someone else. I might even consider Gordon at that spot. 

ETA: Duh, blanked on Kamara.
Since when is Zeke a risk? He’s a stud who may end up with the most touches in the league.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Since when is Zeke a risk? He’s a stud who may end up with the most touches in the league.
My fear is offense is crumbling around him.

That said, I ended up picking 5th: Gurley/Bell/DJ/Saquon went 1-4. I went Zeke over Brown and Kamara. Betting on talent.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
I’m 3rd in a keeper lg draft tomorrow, Bell and Brown can’t be kept so all along I’ve imagined they’ll go 1-2 and I’m looking at OBJ/Barkley at 3. Honestly thinking I get Bell at 3 now, and to be honest I’m not sure how I feel about it. Haven’t had any chance at all at him in any leagues this yr (didn’t expect one here either) so he’s been out of sight/out of mind for me all preseason. 

 

Nucker101

Footballguy
I have 2 drafts left and don’t plan to draft Bell in either of them at his current price, just too risky even if he does report. If he gets roughed up, will he play through it? That’s my concern. 

Connor is definitely worth a pick after the mid rounds. The guy would be a pretty high pick if Bell said he wasn’t planning to play in week 1. I’d take him as one of my first bench RB’s if I don’t love any other RB left on the board 

 

NYRAGE

Footballguy
zftcg said:
I know there are a bunch of current threads on Bell, but I wanted to sidestep discussions of his dynasty value, impact on the Steelers or Week 1 projections and focus on two questions:

If you will be drafting in the next 72 hours, and assuming no new updates before your draft, how much (if at all) will you drop Bell, and where will you target Conner to ensure you get him?
Bell went 1.3 and Connor went 12.6 tonight.

 

Angry Beavers

Footballguy
I have the 5th tomorrow night. I am hoping to take Kamara and pass on Bell or Bell goes in front of me.

Fwiw, I had 2 drafts last weekend and got connor at the end of both of them.

:banned:

 
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TZMarkie

Footballguy
zftcg said:
I know there are a bunch of current threads on Bell, but I wanted to sidestep discussions of his dynasty value, impact on the Steelers or Week 1 projections and focus on two questions:

If you will be drafting in the next 72 hours, and assuming no new updates before your draft, how much (if at all) will you drop Bell, and where will you target Conner to ensure you get him?
 I had a draft this past Saturday. In a 10 teamer standard...... I had the #3 pick.  Gurley went first, a Kamara devotee took  Kamara in front of me at #2 (I knew this would happen if said owner yanked a top pick, he was getting him regardless of spot) and at #3 I took David Johnson.   I was going to take EZE, but I leaned towards DJ, as I think its close and I wanted to have DJ in this league. (I am likely getting a shot at EZE in my next draft, wanted to diversify)

I was "OUT" on Bell last year, and even more so this year. Easy pass for me, with the holdout and injury issues.

Conner was picked up in both my leagues over the weekend.  Of my two teams, only one was a reasonable fit for Connor, and in the other I have a bunch of RBs and cuffs there.

A - I think you still have to have Bell as a top #10 pick, towards the early side. But I am personally staying away.

Conner is a "must own" for now in leagues, even as a speculative short term pick up and watch.  TBH I didn't feel too bad not snagging him off the wire, but if things work out he could be a massive asset this year.  If I had Bell, I'd be trying to acquire Conner in the 9th-10th rounds, but thats totally dependent on team makeup.  If I didn't own Bell, then he is just an extremely late round dart throw.

 TZM

 
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Underachievers

Footballguy
I don't own Bell but took Connor late anyway.   Could have value this season, but i was thinking more along the lines of him being one of my keepers next season when Bell is almost certainly out of Pittsburgh.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
Two drafts last night, both 0.5 PPR. Bell went 1.04 in both (the latter to me - couldn't pass on him at that spot). The former was a live 2QB draft and the sense from the room was he might have fallen to 1.08 if the guy at 4 didn't take him.

Conner went #144 overall in the first draft (undrafted in the second as it was a best-ball format with no post-draft transactions). As a 2QB draft there were already 28-30 QBs off the board by that pick so it's probably the equivalent of ~125th in a more typical format.

 
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zftcg

Footballguy
I think I was a little panicked when I first heard the news of him not reporting, but have calmed down a little. I know he could sit out half the season, but I don't see him doing it. My guess is he misses between 0-2 games to make his point.

That said, I do have some nagging doubts. The combination of him potentially missing some games plus being dissatisfied plus the team running him into the ground makes me feel like there's the potential for the season to go sideways. I'm having flashbacks to the time I owned McCoy in his 20 TD season and then, the following year, was picking No. 3. He was the obvious choice --there was no one else I could seriously consider -- but I knew there was regression coming and didn't feel totally comfortable taking him. He ended up having one of the worst seasons of his career.

I'm picking 5th again in my draft tonight. I think if it goes Gurley/DJ/Zeke/Saquon I can't see myself taking Kamara over him. But if any of those first four fall to me it would be a tough decision.

 

Moonshine

Footballguy
I think I was a little panicked when I first heard the news of him not reporting, but have calmed down a little. I know he could sit out half the season, but I don't see him doing it. My guess is he misses between 0-2 games to make his point.

That said, I do have some nagging doubts. The combination of him potentially missing some games plus being dissatisfied plus the team running him into the ground makes me feel like there's the potential for the season to go sideways. I'm having flashbacks to the time I owned McCoy in his 20 TD season and then, the following year, was picking No. 3. He was the obvious choice --there was no one else I could seriously consider -- but I knew there was regression coming and didn't feel totally comfortable taking him. He ended up having one of the worst seasons of his career.

I'm picking 5th again in my draft tonight. I think if it goes Gurley/DJ/Zeke/Saquon I can't see myself taking Kamara over him. But if any of those first four fall to me it would be a tough decision.
Interesting, as Kamara is the only one not of the Gurley/DJ/Zeke group I'd consider taking over Bell if he slid to me (at #4, half PPR). I like Barkley, but I still think I'd roll the dice on Bell over Barkley. The narrative is that Kamara is due for some regression, which I agree with, but after watching him play last year I'd be hard pressed to pick a back I think is more talented than he is. Kamara will have the first four weeks of the season with no competition in that backfield, on a Saints team that appears to be more dedicated to the run, and a talent level I'd argue is at least on par with the Big 4 (I think he's only being discounted because of the situation). That's hard for me to pass up.

All that being said, I agree with your take on Bell. I'm not discounting him for the possibility of missed games (I believe the likelihood of him missing more than one game is minimal), but instead for the heavy work load last year, the off-the-field distractions, the contract issues, etc.. If Bell and Kamara are both sitting there at #4 when my name comes up and Zeke/DJ/Gurley are gone, I'll have a bit of a decision to make.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Interesting, as Kamara is the only one not of the Gurley/DJ/Zeke group I'd consider taking over Bell if he slid to me (at #4, half PPR). I like Barkley, but I still think I'd roll the dice on Bell over Barkley. The narrative is that Kamara is due for some regression, which I agree with, but after watching him play last year I'd be hard pressed to pick a back I think is more talented than he is. Kamara will have the first four weeks of the season with no competition in that backfield, on a Saints team that appears to be more dedicated to the run, and a talent level I'd argue is at least on par with the Big 4 (I think he's only being discounted because of the situation). That's hard for me to pass up.

All that being said, I agree with your take on Bell. I'm not discounting him for the possibility of missed games (I believe the likelihood of him missing more than one game is minimal), but instead for the heavy work load last year, the off-the-field distractions, the contract issues, etc.. If Bell and Kamara are both sitting there at #4 when my name comes up and Zeke/DJ/Gurley are gone, I'll have a bit of a decision to make.
Curious: How much would it change your calculation on any of the top guys if you were drafting in a non-PPR league?

(Answering my own question: The more I think of it, I'm not sure it does. The main difference between PPR and standard is seen in scatbacks like Duke and guys who don't catch anything like Howard. Not sure how much that applies to the top guys. Maybe you bump Zeke up slightly in non-PPR and Kamara down, but it's minimal.)

 

Moonshine

Footballguy
Curious: How much would it change your calculation on any of the top guys if you were drafting in a non-PPR league?

(Answering my own question: The more I think of it, I'm not sure it does. The main difference between PPR and standard is seen in scatbacks like Duke and guys who don't catch anything like Howard. Not sure how much that applies to the top guys. Maybe you bump Zeke up slightly in non-PPR and Kamara down, but it's minimal.)
I'd agree with you. In non-PPR I think the Top 3 (Gurley, DJ, Zeke) remain the Top 3, with Zeke sitting at the bottom of that grouping. There's a small gap, then it's the Kamara/Barkely tier for me. Bell floats between the two tiers, depending on how 1) risk tolerant you are, & 2) how much you believe the contract/hold-out/off field concerns/workload will get to him this season. In non-PPR, the margin between Kamara and Barkley is so thin, it comes down to personal preference. I'm fairly risk tolerant when it comes to Kamara (I'm not stressing the expected regression, and I believe the workload will be there), so I'd pick him, but Barkley's lack of a viable threat to his workload makes picking him over Kamara very reasonable. Like you said though, very little changes in my tiers based on PPR/non-PPR, save for Zeke potentially finding himself above DJ in the first tier in a non-PPR setting.

 

Phenomena

Footballguy
I don’t understand why Conner is going so late. Even for a non-Bell owner he presents massive upside. I would be targeting starting in the 10th round depending how my team was shaping up.
Same. Even before the recent news weeks ago I was taking Conner in the 11th-12th in many drafts as an upside bench option. Guys like Gio, Ware, Edmonds, Yeldon, would all be workhorse backs if the guy got injured so I usually load up on them.  

 

zftcg

Footballguy
I'd agree with you. In non-PPR I think the Top 3 (Gurley, DJ, Zeke) remain the Top 3, with Zeke sitting at the bottom of that grouping. There's a small gap, then it's the Kamara/Barkely tier for me. Bell floats between the two tiers, depending on how 1) risk tolerant you are, & 2) how much you believe the contract/hold-out/off field concerns/workload will get to him this season. In non-PPR, the margin between Kamara and Barkley is so thin, it comes down to personal preference. I'm fairly risk tolerant when it comes to Kamara (I'm not stressing the expected regression, and I believe the workload will be there), so I'd pick him, but Barkley's lack of a viable threat to his workload makes picking him over Kamara very reasonable. Like you said though, very little changes in my tiers based on PPR/non-PPR, save for Zeke potentially finding himself above DJ in the first tier in a non-PPR setting.
The other thing to keep in mind with guys like Bell/Gurley/DJ (and I think Barkley will soon be on this list as well) is that, even if they're not getting you points per reception, their receiving ability still adds a ton of value. When the Bears' run game is getting bottled up, Jordan Howard is not going to do anything for you. But Bell can have a crappy day running the ball and still tack on an additional 80 yards from dump-offs.

 

habsfan

Footballguy
I took Bell at 1.05 in a PPR redraft. I obviously don't know what happens but think he will play enough and well enough that I won't regret the pick.

At this point I am just trying to parse out the rhetoric of what people think "makes sense" or what he will or won't do. "Running him into the ground" is also just rhetoric. The Steelers are trying to win football games, they're not out in the parking lot doing donuts in a rental car. Bell's ability to shoulder a significant workload and be the focal point of an offense is one of the attributes that will support the big dollars he is looking for. I think when he reports he'll be used the way it makes football sense to use him - no more and no less.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I would want no part of it. 

Bell will, likely, play. He will, likely, be limited week 1, and probably also less than effective week 2. It’s what happened last season. There’s a reason teams practice. 

Its amazing Bell put up the numbers he did last year in what was essentially a 15 game season.

but were I in the top half of the 1st round, there’s just too many safer options. 

Down by the 1-2 turn I’d have to consider him, but I suspect he’d be gone after say, 1.04?

right now my 1st round would go

Gurley -> DJ -> Zeke -> AB ->  ?

if I had 5th pick it would be hard to pass up a talent like Bell, but that’s a lot of risk, and then the added stress of knowing you MUST take Conner earlier than you’d like.

an expensive handcuff makes a 1st round pick that much more expensive. 

So i’d probably just avoid the whole mess & take a safer player who I wouldn’t have to spent a high pick handcuffing 

 

zftcg

Footballguy
LOL. The guy who beat Federer weighed in on the issue:

Stephania Bell‏ @Stephania_ESPN 3 hours ago

Ok, @johnhmillman, the world wants to know...who did you take with the 2nd pick? (And, btw, congrats on that tennis match last night and good on you to remain dedicated to your fantasy league, no matter the circumstances) #FantasyFootball

Replying to @Stephania_ESPN

I love DJ but had to take @LeVeonBell with Gurley off the board.. just need him to be happy with a new contract, maybe a ticket to the tennis as a sweetener

 

mere blitzianity

Footballguy
I would want no part of it. 

Bell will, likely, play. He will, likely, be limited week 1, and probably also less than effective week 2. It’s what happened last season. There’s a reason teams practice. 

Its amazing Bell put up the numbers he did last year in what was essentially a 15 game season.

but were I in the top half of the 1st round, there’s just too many safer options. 

Down by the 1-2 turn I’d have to consider him, but I suspect he’d be gone after say, 1.04?

right now my 1st round would go

Gurley -> DJ -> Zeke -> AB ->  ?

if I had 5th pick it would be hard to pass up a talent like Bell, but that’s a lot of risk, and then the added stress of knowing you MUST take Conner earlier than you’d like.

an expensive handcuff makes a 1st round pick that much more expensive. 

So i’d probably just avoid the whole mess & take a safer player who I wouldn’t have to spent a high pick handcuffing 
I'm blown away by how many people are quite dismissive to Bell's injury history. Unless I'm mistaken, he's had multiple issues with his knees. Give his past usage, I just don't see how he makes it through another season unscathed

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I'm blown away by how many people are quite dismissive to Bell's injury history. Unless I'm mistaken, he's had multiple issues with his knees. Give his past usage, I just don't see how he makes it through another season unscathed
I’m not dismissive at all - it’s why it was a no-brainer for me to take Gurley over Bell at 1.01, despite the trend of 1.01 rarely (never?) repeating. 

Bell has sprained his ACL, torn his MCL, and dealt with other injuries (foot/shoulder). 

Last season was his 1st full season in some time, and it was abbreviated by holdout. 

 
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zftcg

Footballguy
if I had 5th pick it would be hard to pass up a talent like Bell, but that’s a lot of risk, and then the added stress of knowing you MUST take Conner earlier than you’d like.

an expensive handcuff makes a 1st round pick that much more expensive. 

So i’d probably just avoid the whole mess & take a safer player who I wouldn’t have to spent a high pick handcuffing 
This is a hidden cost of drafting a guy facing the uncertainty of a holdout/injury/suspension: It can warp the rest of your draft. You have to reach for a handcuff. Maybe you pass up a high-upside RB3 like Kerryon because you need to get a guaranteed Week 1 starter. I've also found in mocks that just disrupting the normal rhythm of my draft can cause me to make mistakes I wouldn't have otherwise made.

Not saying it's a reason to never do it. But it's something to be aware of.

 

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