Helu, Carter, Powell, etc; (1 Viewer)

[loose circuits]

WINNING

did you run out of statistics to 'spin' to make your argument seem logical?

 

[Multiple Scores]

Last post. I will bump this after the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.

 

[shader]

Basically once you get out of the top 5 or 6, every pick is a huge crapshoot.

For that matter the top 6 is a crapshoot.

You just never know. Rookies are rookies. Some turn out to be stars, the vast majority do not.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Last post. I will bump this after the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.

What are you bumping? That Baldwin will outproduce Helu, Carter, and Powell? Or that any WR besides Green and Julio Jones outproduce them?

 

[loose circuits]

Last post. I will bump this after the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.

What are you bumping? That Baldwin will outproduce Helu, Carter, and Powell? Or that any WR besides Green and Julio Jones outproduce them?

I asked him to pick 2 of Torrey smith, Cobb, cam, locker, or gabbert but he refused. Probably cause he knows that if he keeps his statements as vague as possible it will be a lot easier to make yourself look right.I don't think anyone is arguing that Baldwin is a better pick than those RB's...at least I know I'm not

 

[Multiple Scores]

Why limit to two? How about four.

Helu

Carter

Hunter

Powell

Cobb

T. Smith

Cam

Locker

fair?

 

[Multiple Scores]

Also helu is going 9 and Baldwin 11 in zealots. This goes towards my point of the thread whether loose circuits is on board with it or not it stands out in a very ugly way.

 

[az_prof]

I'm not seeing many standouts. There are other scouting reports that I've read and they have similar findings. I'm truly curious what is so special and "deep" about this class and on whose authority that is making that determination. I mean, when I look at previous RBs in the last few years drafted in the 4th/5th rounds, I see pretty similar guys: Leon Washington, Michael Bush, Marion Barber, Jacobs, Sproles, Jerome Harrison, Antonio Pittman, Hightower, Torain, Choice, Javon Ringer, etc. I guess I'm just not seeing guys on that list above and saying "wow, I can't believe they fell". They're just guys, just like every other year at around that point in the draft.

I believe the reason certain players are being hyped is because of the situation they have been drafted. I would imagine the reason so many are high on say Helu is because they believe he is going to be a starter at some point during the season. Helu was a great college RB, but the fact he is thought to be potential every week starter is very appealing to some who need RBs. You can swap Helu's name for another RB this year who is being hyped up and you have the same story.I think another aspect of this is that many feel that if you pick the right RB it will payoff much more then a WR. Of course it's more likely to pick a WR and get value from a pick, but hitting the target for the next big RB before everyone else can be more exciting and rewarding.

I agree. The fact is that because FA has been delayed, alot of teams picked HBs in the midrounds of the draft and right now it looks like those guys are in good situations. That pushes up their fantasy value, right now. But after FA, the situation may change and some of these 'flavor of the day' backs, will fall.

 

[loose circuits]

Why limit to two? How about four. HeluCarterHunterPowellCobbT. SmithCamLockerfair?

I definitely wouldn't draft Powell that high since he'll likely be 3rd string at best for 2011 with a chance he's behind McKnight as well. His value isn't going up in the next year. I'd prefer not to involve Hunter either since he'll be behind Frank. If guys don't do anything in their 1st year, usually their value drops whether or not it was just an opportunity issue. Guess there is a chance Frank could be breaking down so Hunter could see some actionhow many zealots leagues have drafted and how do you find their ADP? If it's only a few (which it appears to be after looking through a lot of them that haven't even drafted) is Baldwin behind Helu & Carter really a 'trend'?

 

[ZWK]

As described in this thread, I looked at data for players drafted from 1993-2006. Among all players drafted in those 14 years:

6% of round 5 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 10% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 18 career VBD.

17% of round 4 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 8% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 23 career VBD.

24% of round 3 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 12% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 46 career VBD.

37% of round 2 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 14% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 47 career VBD.

27% of round 2 QBs were fantasy starters (top 12) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 18% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 63 career VBD.

24% of round 3 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 16% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 60 career VBD.

So round 2-3 WRs and round 2 QBs do have a much better track record, on the whole, than round 4-5 RBs.

 

[Go deep]

Why limit to two? How about four.

Helu

Carter

Hunter

Powell

Cobb

T. Smith

Cam

Locker

fair?

I definitely wouldn't draft Powell that high since he'll likely be 3rd string at best for 2011 with a chance he's behind McKnight as well. His value isn't going up in the next year. I'd prefer not to involve Hunter either since he'll be behind Frank. If guys don't do anything in their 1st year, usually their value drops whether or not it was just an opportunity issue. Guess there is a chance Frank could be breaking down so Hunter could see some actionhow many zealots leagues have drafted and how do you find their ADP? If it's only a few (which it appears to be after looking through a lot of them that haven't even drafted) is Baldwin behind Helu & Carter really a 'trend'?

via PranksterJD

http://www.zealotsfield.com/adp/2011_adp.html

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Also helu is going 9 and Baldwin 11 in zealots. This goes towards my point of the thread whether loose circuits is on board with it or not it stands out in a very ugly way.

In 37 drafts so far, Powell hasn't gone higher than 18th and averages 24. Why are you including him? No one is drafting him high.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Good posting.

As described in this thread, I looked at data for players drafted from 1993-2006. Among all players drafted in those 14 years:

6% of round 5 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 10% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 18 career VBD.

17% of round 4 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 8% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 23 career VBD.

24% of round 3 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 12% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 46 career VBD.

37% of round 2 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 14% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 47 career VBD.

27% of round 2 QBs were fantasy starters (top 12) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 18% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 63 career VBD.

24% of round 3 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 16% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 60 career VBD.

So round 2-3 WRs and round 2 QBs do have a much better track record, on the whole, than round 4-5 RBs.

 

[southeastjerome]

Obviously guys drafted later have more question marks, but one thing I'll never do is make a decision on a player based on factors that have nothing to do with him or his team. Just because there has been a run of not so good RB's in the 4th and 5th round in recent years is in no way related to the players that were drafted this year in those rounds by different teams. They are completely different players in different situations. I like to avoid thinking traps like this rather than embrace them. To each his own.

 

[Go deep]

Good posting.

As described in this thread, I looked at data for players drafted from 1993-2006. Among all players drafted in those 14 years:

6% of round 5 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 10% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 18 career VBD.

17% of round 4 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 8% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 23 career VBD.

24% of round 3 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 12% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 46 career VBD.

37% of round 2 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 14% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 47 career VBD.

27% of round 2 QBs were fantasy starters (top 12) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 18% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 63 career VBD.

24% of round 3 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 16% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 60 career VBD.

So round 2-3 WRs and round 2 QBs do have a much better track record, on the whole, than round 4-5 RBs.

Good info, although i would like to see the percentages of the top 24 WR's instead of the top 36.

 

[Go deep]

Obviously guys drafted later have more question marks, but one thing I'll never do is make a decision on a player based on factors that have nothing to do with him or his team. Just because there has been a run of not so good RB's in the 4th and 5th round in recent years is in no way related to the players that were drafted this year in those rounds by different teams. They are completely different players in different situations. I like to avoid thinking traps like this rather than embrace them. To each his own.

To recommend avoiding players based solely on where they were drafted is not a good idea. Plus, how is it fair to 4th rounders to be lumped with 5th rounders? Should i value a guy drafted with an early 4th pick the same as a guy who was selected with a compensatory 5th round pick?Like i said earlier in this thread(or a thread like it) it reminds my of the BMI thread from a few years back. I wont judge a player based solely on some trends from the past 6-8-10 years. I will consider the info when evaluating a player, but its one of many things i will consider, and trends wont be at the top of the list.

 

[ZWK]

Good posting.

As described in this thread, I looked at data for players drafted from 1993-2006. Among all players drafted in those 14 years:

6% of round 5 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 10% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 18 career VBD.

17% of round 4 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 8% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 23 career VBD.

24% of round 3 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 12% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 46 career VBD.

37% of round 2 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 14% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 47 career VBD.

27% of round 2 QBs were fantasy starters (top 12) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 18% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 63 career VBD.

24% of round 3 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 16% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 60 career VBD.

So round 2-3 WRs and round 2 QBs do have a much better track record, on the whole, than round 4-5 RBs.

Good info, although i would like to see the percentages of the top 24 WR's instead of the top 36.

16% of round 3 WRs were top 24 fantasy receivers in their first 3 years, and 27% of round 2 WRs.The career VBD numbers use WR 30 as the baseline, since they come from PFR.

 

[Dez]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

 

[Go deep]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

The OP is being specific to just 4th and 5th rounders.

 

[Couch Potato]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

The OP is being specific to just 4th and 5th rounders.

And that's what makes this whole argument so silly. Can't discuss 3rd rounders. Can't discuss 6th or 7th rounders. Can't discuss UDFAs. Have to stick to 4th and 5th specifically. The whole thing is a waste of anyone's time to bother discussing when it's just an exercise in cherry picking.

 

[Multiple Scores]

lol. And yet here you are. It's not cherry picking. It's the fact that helu hunter Carter Powell were all drafted in those rounds and are all being picked too high. The 3rd 6th 7th rounders are not being overdrafted in my opinion this year. It's specific players all of them drafted in those rounds. The successful playerS you mentioned like Hillis were not overdrafted in my opinion.

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

The OP is being specific to just 4th and 5th rounders.

And that's what makes this whole argument so silly. Can't discuss 3rd rounders. Can't discuss 6th or 7th rounders. Can't discuss UDFAs. Have to stick to 4th and 5th specifically. The whole thing is a waste of anyone's time to bother discussing when it's just an exercise in cherry picking.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

These players were not being overdrafted if I recall. Helu is going in round 1 of rookie drafts.

 

[Go deep]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

The OP is being specific to just 4th and 5th rounders.

And that's what makes this whole argument so silly. Can't discuss 3rd rounders. Can't discuss 6th or 7th rounders. Can't discuss UDFAs. Have to stick to 4th and 5th specifically. The whole thing is a waste of anyone's time to bother discussing when it's just an exercise in cherry picking.

Im not saying i agree, im just pointing out the OP's argument.

 

[Couch Potato]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

The OP is being specific to just 4th and 5th rounders.

And that's what makes this whole argument so silly. Can't discuss 3rd rounders. Can't discuss 6th or 7th rounders. Can't discuss UDFAs. Have to stick to 4th and 5th specifically. The whole thing is a waste of anyone's time to bother discussing when it's just an exercise in cherry picking.

Im not saying i agree, im just pointing out the OP's argument.

Right, I was referring to him, not to you.He still never addressed my comment upthread about the fact that he is discounting Helu because he's a 4th rounder, yet Helu is competing against Torain, a 5th rounder who was out of football all of 2009. Plus the HC has a history of utilizing low picks as starters at RB. As someone else said upthread, you can't simply look at these rounds and make a sweeping statement, you have to look at the individual situations involved.And when he posts things like WINNING he starts to look more and more like the guy he's emulating with that comment. That's not a compliment.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I'm not sure how I could address torain. Two things I would point out is that Alex Gibbs is not with shanahan anymore, is shanahan a guru with backs? I don't know, I do know Gibbs went to other teams and worked his magic, maybe and maybe not for shanahan, it's unknown. Let's assume for a minute shanahan can't wave a magic wand. Torain breaks tackles well and he had to last year and had moderate success. From the games I've seen helu play breaking tackles is not a plus for him. I can see a situation where torain would have more success on the redskins as it's organized now.

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

The OP is being specific to just 4th and 5th rounders.

And that's what makes this whole argument so silly. Can't discuss 3rd rounders. Can't discuss 6th or 7th rounders. Can't discuss UDFAs. Have to stick to 4th and 5th specifically. The whole thing is a waste of anyone's time to bother discussing when it's just an exercise in cherry picking.

Im not saying i agree, im just pointing out the OP's argument.

Right, I was referring to him, not to you.He still never addressed my comment upthread about the fact that he is discounting Helu because he's a 4th rounder, yet Helu is competing against Torain, a 5th rounder who was out of football all of 2009. Plus the HC has a history of utilizing low picks as starters at RB. As someone else said upthread, you can't simply look at these rounds and make a sweeping statement, you have to look at the individual situations involved.And when he posts things like WINNING he starts to look more and more like the guy he's emulating with that comment. That's not a compliment.

 

[autotrigger]

Nobody said that most/all the 3rd/4th.5th round RBs from this class were all going to be good. But of course you will find a thread saying each one will because everyone has their favorites. I will say that this years class probably has alot of 4th/5th rounders that would have gone higher in past or future drafts due to the depth at the position. With that though there might only be a couple/few that go on to be guys i would want in starting lineup. The more of them i take the better chance i have at getting the good one(s). Again though, nobody is saying Helu or Hunter are the next Terrell Davis or Frank Gore. But there is a chance and its worth a 2nd round rookie pick in the event they are. What else are you going to get there, the sure thing that is Cam Newton or Leonard Hankerson? Its all about the price of the lottery ticket, the odds it hits and the payout if it does.

Actually, Mike Shanahan was saying that Evan Royster reminds him of Terrell Davis

 

[MrSoup]

I find it comical that the OP is dismissing Helu because he is a 4th rounder, when the incumbent was a 5th rounder, and the coach has a long history of eschewing high draft pick RBs in favor of less touted ones.

Couch Potato, once again, with infinite wisdom. MY. THOUGHTS. EXACTLY.Who is this guy, "Multiple Scores", to come here with his chest puffed out like he's the end all of football knowledge. I draft nothing but rookies and 2nd year players every year and it has served me well thus far. Numbers and statistics, to a point, mean nothing. Anything can happen at anytime, any year.

 

[cr8f]

I took Baldwin and Cobb at 1-10 and 1.11 in a PPR and Helu at 2.01(#13) because I didn't have another pick until 3.01.

Helu was a reach but couldn't trade and am happy with the pick. After the 1st round I see a lot of these players as crap shots.

 

[cr8f]

Foster, Blount, Terrell Davis, A-Bradshaw, P-Hillis just off the top of my head for rounds 6, 7 and not even drafted.

These players were not being overdrafted if I recall. Helu is going in round 1 of rookie drafts.

Ryan Grant wasn't drafted and Green Bay traded a 6th for him. The draft outside a few players is not very accurate at judging talent whereas Shanahan has a pretty good track record.

 

[az_prof]

As described in this thread, I looked at data for players drafted from 1993-2006. Among all players drafted in those 14 years:

6% of round 5 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 10% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 18 career VBD.

17% of round 4 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 8% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 23 career VBD.

24% of round 3 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 12% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 46 career VBD.

37% of round 2 WRs were fantasy starters (top 36) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 14% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 47 career VBD.

27% of round 2 QBs were fantasy starters (top 12) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 18% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 63 career VBD.

24% of round 3 RBs were fantasy starters (top 24) for at least 1 of their first 3 years in the NFL, 16% had at least 100 VBD for their career, and they averaged 60 career VBD.

So round 2-3 WRs and round 2 QBs do have a much better track record, on the whole, than round 4-5 RBs.

Nice data. Thanks.

 

[Hoosier16]

those guys didn't go ahead of Baldwin in any of my drafts.

That's because you are forgetting this is a Zealots only discussion. It also applies to outliers in every other draft.

I already showed that both carter and helu went at 9 and Baldwin 13 and cam 20 in your hyperactive sister league. It wasn't "your" particular draft.

Do you not know the meaning of "outliers"?

Somehow you say this is now zealots only. There are many instances of helu ahead of Baldwin in non zealots leagues in threads where people posts their drafts. I posted way more than enough information, went out of my way to post all the WRs even though it's common knowledge to the majority of fbgers. If you keep trying to twist and manipulate I suggest fact checking first because the both of you aren't looking too sharp.

The only ADP or draft info I've seen you post is from Zealots, which from what I understand, leans heavily towards RBs. Here is the ADPs from roughly 300 MFL rookie drafts:
1 "Green, A.J. CIN WR"2 "Ingram, Mark NOS RB"3 "Jones, Julio ATL WR"4 "Leshoure, Mikel DET RB"5 "Williams, Ryan ARI RB"6 "Thomas, Daniel MIA RB"7 "Little, Greg CLE WR"8 "Baldwin, Jon KCC WR"9 "Vereen, Shane NEP RB"10 "Newton, Cam CAR QB"11 "Helu, Roy WAS RB"12 "Smith, Torrey BAL WR"13 "Cobb, Randall GBP WR"14 "Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB"15 "Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR"16 "Murray, DeMarco DAL RB"17 "Hunter, Kendall SFO RB"18 "Brown, Vincent SDC WR"19 "Locker, Jake TEN QB"20 "Young, Titus DET WR"21 "Carter, Delone IND RB"22 "Ponder, Christian MIN QB"23 "Dalton, Andy CIN QB"24 "Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB"25 "Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE"26 "Green, Alex GBP RB"27 "Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB"28 "Powell, Bilal NYJ RB"29 "Salas, Greg STL WR"30 "Jones, Taiwan OAK RB" As you can see, none of those RBs, on average, are being picked before Baldwin. Only Helu is being picked before some of the others you mentioned.

 

[Go deep]

those guys didn't go ahead of Baldwin in any of my drafts.

That's because you are forgetting this is a Zealots only discussion. It also applies to outliers in every other draft.

I already showed that both carter and helu went at 9 and Baldwin 13 and cam 20 in your hyperactive sister league. It wasn't "your" particular draft.

Do you not know the meaning of "outliers"?

Somehow you say this is now zealots only. There are many instances of helu ahead of Baldwin in non zealots leagues in threads where people posts their drafts. I posted way more than enough information, went out of my way to post all the WRs even though it's common knowledge to the majority of fbgers. If you keep trying to twist and manipulate I suggest fact checking first because the both of you aren't looking too sharp.

The only ADP or draft info I've seen you post is from Zealots, which from what I understand, leans heavily towards RBs. Here is the ADPs from roughly 300 MFL rookie drafts:
1 "Green, A.J. CIN WR"2 "Ingram, Mark NOS RB"3 "Jones, Julio ATL WR"4 "Leshoure, Mikel DET RB"5 "Williams, Ryan ARI RB"6 "Thomas, Daniel MIA RB"7 "Little, Greg CLE WR"8 "Baldwin, Jon KCC WR"9 "Vereen, Shane NEP RB"10 "Newton, Cam CAR QB"11 "Helu, Roy WAS RB"12 "Smith, Torrey BAL WR"13 "Cobb, Randall GBP WR"14 "Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB"15 "Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR"16 "Murray, DeMarco DAL RB"17 "Hunter, Kendall SFO RB"18 "Brown, Vincent SDC WR"19 "Locker, Jake TEN QB"20 "Young, Titus DET WR"21 "Carter, Delone IND RB"22 "Ponder, Christian MIN QB"23 "Dalton, Andy CIN QB"24 "Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB"25 "Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE"26 "Green, Alex GBP RB"27 "Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB"28 "Powell, Bilal NYJ RB"29 "Salas, Greg STL WR"30 "Jones, Taiwan OAK RB" As you can see, none of those RBs, on average, are being picked before Baldwin. Only Helu is being picked before some of the others you mentioned.

Yep, every 2nd round WR(other than Young), plus 2 of the QB's have all gone before all the 4/5th round RB's OTHER than Helu. So this thread shouldnt be about anyone other than Helu, right MS?

 

[corpcow]

It seems we keep hearing how Helu, Delone Carter, Powell, Hunter and to some extent Taiwan Jones, Johnny White and Jaquizz Rogers. These are the 4th/5th round gems, gack...

History lesson, In the last 10 years Michael Turner in 2004 is by far the best 4th/5th rounder. The next best are Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs in 2005. Then we get down to the next best are Timmay Hightower, Ryan Torain, Mike Goodson and Michael Bush.

That's it folks, not much to see here. 10 years and 3 players worthy of a 1st round fantasy rookie pick and the best one by far you had to wait 4 years to do squat.

IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.

Yea, these guys aren't that great. A lot of people are rolling the dice hoping for the next Terrell Davis, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Rudi Johnson. That's all well and fine, but the odds of unearthing a player of that caliber are fairly slim when you're talking about prospects chosen outside the top 100 of the NFL draft. I haven't drafted Helu, Carter, or Powell in any leagues. Nor have I taken Jones, Hunter, White, or Rodgers (although I think the latter two are interesting deep sleepers). I see a lot of mediocrity here. Then again, it's not like the WR and QB ranks are stocked with can't-miss stars this year.

There's not a lot to like once you get outside the top 4. However, you'll never catch me drafting one of these journeymen over a guy like Baldwin or Cobb who seems to have a much better chance of becoming a productive starter.

I've been meaning to start a thread about 1st round RBs that are being written off (Brown, Beanie, etc). Here's the thing - while I'm not saying there are no busts, there's less to worry about translating talent and ability than other skill positions where there's more variables. And there's also plenty of backs who are more than physically capable of being a star (at least in fantasy terms) given the right situation. On a good running team (with good line, or a passing game that keeps things open, etc) - "any" NFL-capable RB can put up stats.This means a couple of things to me: a) I don't write off mid-level talents just because they weren't drafted in the 1st round, especially when there is one aspect of their game that contributed to fall ("too small", character concerns, etc), and b) I do pay attention when a RB is drafted in the 1st round because, given it's a position where late guys are easily pluggable.

Meanwhile, 1st round RBs were as I said drafted there for a reason. I struggle to throw the towel in on Brown, because 1st round "busts" always seem to get opportunities even if it means with a new team. See Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, DeAngelo, etc. So, I have trouble thinking that Brown is a bust and Carter is the answer.

Every single year, people reach on mid/late round RBs because of situation. See GB RBs for the last X years - Brandon Jackson, James Starks, Alex Green, etc.

One difference, I think, is that many of the popular late picks this year SEEM to be because of talent more than situation. I.e., SF and ATL and NYJ are not "RB needy". On the other hand, picks like Helu, Vereen, and even THomas to a certain extent are likely being overdrafted (especially since I've seen Thomas go 1.01).

I think the value here is in the early/late 2nds. I haven't picked Helu, Vereen, Thomas, Carter, etc in any league. I do have Bilal, Quizz, Kendall Hunter because of value. I would not have picked either of them in the 1st.

 

[Go deep]

Rich Tandler: Let me start out with a shocker prediction here – Ryan Torain won’t be the opening day starter. Remember last year’s leading rusher was on the practice squad at the start of the season. He did manage to make it through five-and-a-half games with four starts before his injury-prone ways caught up with him in the form of a pulled hamstring just before halftime of the Lions game. I have a hunch that due to the lack of a structured offseason this year the injury bug will catch up with him sooner rather than later and he’ll either be on injured reserve or inactive do to some ailment or another whenever the season opener does roll around. Even if that doesn’t happen, fourth-round draft pick Roy Helu could flat beat him out for the starting job.

http://www.csnwashington.com/05/27/11/Point-Counterpoint-Sorting-out-the-runni/landing_redskins_loud3r.html?blockID=529510&feedID=6355Helu might not even need a regular season carry to have enough value to warrant a first round rookie pick. Asssuming this writer ends up being right, and Helu enters the season as a starter, he will have significant value as a young starting RB, even if he isnt a very good one.

 

[KellysHeroes]

that because theres no one else to pick..

Round 1 saw 3 WRs and 1 RB Taken

Round 2 had 4 WRs, 4 RBs and 2 TEs

Round 3 had 4 WRs, 3 RBs and 1 TE; the 3rd round is usually full of RBs and WRs

So yeah, this year people really don't have a choice put to use a 1st or early 2nd on an NFL 4th/5th pick. I just think that the skill positions in this yrs draft was really lacking.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

that because theres no one else to pick..Round 1 saw 3 WRs and 1 RB TakenRound 2 had 4 WRs, 4 RBs and 2 TEsRound 3 had 4 WRs, 3 RBs and 1 TE; the 3rd round is usually full of RBs and WRsSo yeah, this year people really don't have a choice put to use a 1st or early 2nd on an NFL 4th/5th pick. I just think that the skill positions in this yrs draft was really lacking.

I guarantee you at least one of these WR's: Hankerson, Torrey Smith, Terrence Toliver, Kealoha Pilares, or Greg Little will be better than both AJ Green AND Julio Jones.

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

that because theres no one else to pick..Round 1 saw 3 WRs and 1 RB TakenRound 2 had 4 WRs, 4 RBs and 2 TEsRound 3 had 4 WRs, 3 RBs and 1 TE; the 3rd round is usually full of RBs and WRsSo yeah, this year people really don't have a choice put to use a 1st or early 2nd on an NFL 4th/5th pick. I just think that the skill positions in this yrs draft was really lacking.

I guarantee you at least one of these WR's: Hankerson, Torrey Smith, Terrence Toliver, Kealoha Pilares, or Greg Little will be better than both AJ Green AND Julio Jones.

I will take that bet. Can't see any of them outproducing AJ or Julio.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I've been trying to read through this thread to determine the main point but I'm having trouble. Is the point that you should not use a first round rookie pick on late round RBs and rather use it on WRs? I would think that the makeup of your team might dictate what position you draft once you get past the point of the no-brainers. Last year I felt my team was loaded at WR so I grabbed James Starks with an early 2nd round pick but I certainly had him on my list in the late first round. The thing I like about taking a flier on RBs is that it seems you find out fairly quickly if you have something or not. With a WR like Cobb, whom you mentioned, it might take years given all the other WRs in front of him.

 

[BigTex]

 

[Fullback Fro]

It seems we keep hearing how Helu, Delone Carter, Powell, Hunter and to some extent Taiwan Jones, Johnny White and Jaquizz Rogers. These are the 4th/5th round gems, gack...

History lesson, In the last 10 years Michael Turner in 2004 is by far the best 4th/5th rounder. The next best are Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs in 2005. Then we get down to the next best are Timmay Hightower, Ryan Torain, Mike Goodson and Michael Bush.

That's it folks, not much to see here. 10 years and 3 players worthy of a 1st round fantasy rookie pick and the best one by far you had to wait 4 years to do squat.

IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.

So are we supposed to analyze, discuss, and draft imaginary players?

 

[Multiple Scores]

Too much weed?

It seems we keep hearing how Helu, Delone Carter, Powell, Hunter and to some extent Taiwan Jones, Johnny White and Jaquizz Rogers. These are the 4th/5th round gems, gack...

History lesson, In the last 10 years Michael Turner in 2004 is by far the best 4th/5th rounder. The next best are Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs in 2005. Then we get down to the next best are Timmay Hightower, Ryan Torain, Mike Goodson and Michael Bush.

That's it folks, not much to see here. 10 years and 3 players worthy of a 1st round fantasy rookie pick and the best one by far you had to wait 4 years to do squat.

IRREFUTABLE PROOF

Enjoy and please give it a rest.

So are we supposed to analyze, discuss, and draft imaginary players?

 

[FavreCo]

I find it comical that the OP is dismissing Helu because he is a 4th rounder, when the incumbent was a 5th rounder, and the coach has a long history of eschewing high draft pick RBs in favor of less touted ones.

Couch Potato, once again, with infinite wisdom. MY. THOUGHTS. EXACTLY.Who is this guy, "Multiple Scores", to come here with his chest puffed out like he's the end all of football knowledge. I draft nothing but rookies and 2nd year players every year and it has served me well thus far. Numbers and statistics, to a point, mean nothing. Anything can happen at anytime, any year.

Didn't see it mentioned yet. How long are we into the RBBC fad that has an overwhelming majority of teams with 2 guys sharing carries and even 3 now. How many teams had RBBC 5-10 years ago? Not many. Thus there probably won't be a stud but there will be late round RB's that get plenty of action. More action than they would have received 5-10 years ago. Pulling out the 2003 stats, RBBC: Atl, Cin, Det, Minn, NE, Oak, Phil,SF, TB, Wash. 16 guys with 250+ carriesThe 2006 Stats: Jets, NE, Colts, Jax, Texans, Dal, Chi, NO, Car. 17 with 250+ carries2009: NE, MIA, Cle, Hou, Den, KC, Oak, Dal, NYG, Wash, Phil, Det, NO, Car, TB, Sea, Ari. Over 1/2 the league. Even Frank Gore started losing carries. 9 players with 250 plus carries.2010: 11 with 250 carries.In the last 5 years, there have only been 2 guys go over 350 carries in a season. Previous to that the average was 2 per year.Then add in the passing game.

 

[beerbarron]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right..

It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

 

[gianmarco]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

JonesGreenIngramThomasLittleWilliamsLeshoureBaldwinHankersonSmithCobbNewtonAnd there's a few others I'd personally take ahead of them as well.....

 

[Go deep]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

Over Helu, probably not, over Carter, i can come up with 20.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

JonesGreenIngramThomasLittleWilliamsLeshoureBaldwinHankersonSmithCobbNewtonAnd there's a few others I'd personally take ahead of them as well.....

You're saying Cobb, Smith, Hankerson, and Baldwin aren't long shots? All are guaranteed to have success and don't come with risk?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

Over Helu, probably not, over Carter, i can come up with 20.

That's not what I asked though. Some guys in this thread are acting like taking a WR or QB at the end of round one guarantees them success. I would say Carter and Helu have as good a shot at success as Hankerson, Cobb, or even Baldwin.

 

[gianmarco]

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

JonesGreenIngramThomasLittleWilliamsLeshoureBaldwinHankersonSmithCobbNewtonAnd there's a few others I'd personally take ahead of them as well.....

You're saying Cobb, Smith, Hankerson, and Baldwin aren't long shots? All are guaranteed to have success and don't come with risk?

Every rookie comes with risk. None are guaranteed to have success. Not even Green, Jones, or Ingram. But I would hardly call those guys "long shots". One of those guys is a 1st round pick. 2 of them are 2nd round picks. The "long shot" is Hankerson and he was still both rated higher and drafted in the 3rd round, i.e. drafted higher than the 4th round guys Carter and Helu. Two other guys, Titus Young and Vereen, were also drafted in the 2nd round and I wouldn't consider "long shots" and I didn't even list them because I think Hankerson is viewed as a legit top prospect by most.

 

[Multiple Scores]

If you believe this then you paid no attention to the history lesson that was the heart of the thread.

I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.

Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?

Over Helu, probably not, over Carter, i can come up with 20.

That's not what I asked though. Some guys in this thread are acting like taking a WR or QB at the end of round one guarantees them success. I would say Carter and Helu have as good a shot at success as Hankerson, Cobb, or even Baldwin.