Cato
Footballguy
I think you make a good point, the success rate of lower round RBs, is not very high. That said, if we consider the reward for a RB to be the greatest, some dynasty GMs, like to invest in higher risk/higher reward stocks. To your point they are less likely to hit. For the sake of discussion, let's sayLower round RBs have a 10% chance of hitting with a reward of ... let's say 100 VBD for giggles.WR/QBs, have a 30% chance with a reward of... let's say 75 VBD for giggles.Is it unwise to play the lower chance stocks? Yeah, probably. But the smart market players can profit from this, take the dropping players at lower ADPs. Also I don't think one can blame the high risk stock players, for when they hit, they hit. (Michael Turner, Terrell Davis.)I think the best built dynasty team portfolio is medium risk, not a great pile of medium risk stocks, but rather a solid base core of low risk players to which one adds high risk players occasionally. The sum average of the team is medium risk, but the potential for high reward is what keeps people playing the high risk picks. I don't think one can blame the low risk stock investors, or the high risk stock investors, for the directions they take. Though, I think you're 100% right in highlighting it for discussion, neither approach is wrong though. Also I recognize your OP, **ONLY** refers to 4-5th round RBs, but the elephant in the room are Foster and Hillis who frankly have lower draft positions then that. We're all trying to catch lightning in a bottle sometimes, and as long as we're not doing it all the time, our roster risk level will probably balance out long term.If you believe this then you paid no attention to the history lesson that was the heart of the thread.
That's not what I asked though. Some guys in this thread are acting like taking a WR or QB at the end of round one guarantees them success. I would say Carter and Helu have as good a shot at success as Hankerson, Cobb, or even Baldwin.Over Helu, probably not, over Carter, i can come up with 20.Can someone list 12 guys that aren't "long shots" that people should draft ahead of Carter and Helu?I think the OPost was stating that to many long shot RB's are going way to high in rookie draft's and with the exception of Helu, he is probably right.. It's nice to hit on that lottery ticket draft pick, just dont use the first round to hit it when you might get the same player later in rd 2.
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Well said
How is Helu, Carter, Powell working out for you? I know Cam, Baldwin and even Murray are working out well for me. For you to keep commenting is embarrassing if you read through the old posts.