Todd Andrews
Footballguy
Started him when Calvin was out!
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How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Man of Zen
- Start date
Saint
Footballguy
After week 5:
Week 1: DHB (6.3 pts) vs TY (5.0 pts)
Week 2: TY (18.4 pts) vs DHB (3.0 pts - Injured and left game)
Week 3: DHB (10.9 pts) vs TY (3.3 pts - groin injury after game?)
Week 4: TY (10.1 pts) vs DHB (6.3 pts)
Week 5: TY (31.0 pts
) vs DHB (0.7 pts 
)
Series is 3-2 after 5 weeks.
Points overall:
TY: 67.8
DHB: 27.2
Week 1: DHB (6.3 pts) vs TY (5.0 pts)
Week 2: TY (18.4 pts) vs DHB (3.0 pts - Injured and left game)
Week 3: DHB (10.9 pts) vs TY (3.3 pts - groin injury after game?)
Week 4: TY (10.1 pts) vs DHB (6.3 pts)
Week 5: TY (31.0 pts
) vs DHB (0.7 pts )Series is 3-2 after 5 weeks.
Points overall:
TY: 67.8
DHB: 27.2
I actually started him *because* he was playing SEA and I figured that Sherman would be busy with Wayne. Not sure if that's how it went down as I didn't watch the game very closely. I don't think this game changes that much, he's still a boom or bust type of player. Although, I would love more consistency.That was pretty amazing to watch. He was so fast and quick, it looked like he was toying with DB's from time to time.
Would have been that much better if he could reliably catch balls that hit him in the hands.
Kudos to the few that started him. I see by online manager stats that not many owners did, this week. Looks like Hilton is indeed emerging, though I doubt it did many much good this week. I'm sure the handful of DHB drafters dropped him weeks ago, and I wish luck to those of you moving Hilton back into your lineups next week.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
On my bench
Oh well
Oh well
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Had him in, switched him out last minute for Nate Washington. Figured that SEA was going to be a little weaker on the road, but they are still amazing, esp. in the def, backfield, and they would still able to take away T.Y.'s straight downfield speed with CB coverage and safety help.
Washington was also a risk with a new QB coming in, but figured they would be far behind and have to throw. Honestly thought Washington and Hilton would have the same statlines (4 for about 50).
Should have went with my gut.
Washington was also a risk with a new QB coming in, but figured they would be far behind and have to throw. Honestly thought Washington and Hilton would have the same statlines (4 for about 50).
Should have went with my gut.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Time to chase those points - and get a 2 for 13 line again.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Does anyone have the TY versus DHB snap counts for last week? TY did his damage (on my bench, of course) on just 5 catches. Trying to gauge if it was fluky or indicative of his time on field.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
That's just seems typical for TY, so I think snap counts might just be misleading anyway.
The most receptions he had in any single game last year was 6. He had several 6/100 stat lines.
need2know
Footballguy
Funny how all those dhb supporters have disappeared. Last weeks game was the first of many for ty this year. There will be some stinkers thrown in, hes not a wr1, but this guy is a stud. Hes a great wr 2/3 because his ceiling is as high as any wr. But you do have to play him every week. Dont look at matchups, you will miss out
Oh Jurb.....where'd you go? How's DHB working out for you?I'd bet my bottom dollar that the reason no one is singing DHB's praises anymore and bragging about what a 'great value pick he was in the 13th round' is that they've now cut him and realized their error. Hilton may be hit or miss, but that sure beats miss or miss worse, which is Bay's entire career.need2know said:
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Wow, very encouraging, thanks. Safe to assume that OC Pep Hamilton is scrapping his base 2TE set due to the injury to Dwayne Allen and knowing he needs his best playmaker on the field? The game was close all day so not like they were in catch up mode.
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Man of Zen
Footballguy
I know I'm one who said DHB looked like the better value at a pricetag of zero. Still does, based on my leauges' results.
The DHB owner cut bait and added the KC defense that week. The Hilton owner hasn't gotten a single decent week out of his investment yet, although I suppose the two decent weeks sitting on the pine will look nice in the post-season recap.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
You guys understand DHB was free and that people were paying for Hilton, right? And how did Hilton work out those first few weeks?
Exactly.
I know I'm one who said DHB looked like the better value at a pricetag of zero. Still does, based on my leauges' results.
The DHB owner cut bait and added the KC defense that week. The Hilton owner hasn't gotten a single decent week out of his investment yet, although I suppose the two decent weeks sitting on the pine will look nice in the post-season recap.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, the injury to Allen certainly changed the complection of things. That was pointed out by myself and several others before the season and once the injury occurred. What's laughable is that every league I play in but one had the Hilton owner benching him. He's been benched due to his underperformance to this point. So yeah, while a few guys are in here pounding their chest after a good week, those of us who said his value was inflated are still laughing. Those points will look good on a season recap. The reality is, they did nothing for owners who had already benched him out of frustration.
Several guys around here were touting Hilton as a high level WR2 who would simply continue his strong run at the end of 2012. He was drafted to be a starter by that group. We have only pointed out that his value was too high and that wasn't likely to happen seeing he couldn't beat out DHB for a starting role on the team. He would be a boom or bust guy week to week. Nothing has proven that false yet.
As I said before though. Now that Allen is out for the year I like the prospects of all 3 WRs in Indy. My main concern is how much they will throw the ball, game in and game out. Indy has been under 30 passing attempts in 3 of 5 games this season. If that continues, then Hilton will no way be a reliable weekly starter.
Johnny Blood
Footballguy
Were people touting him as having potential to finish as a WR2, or to draft him as one? I thought the hype was that you could get a potential WR2 for WR3 price.
I drafted him as WR3 and started him every week. I don't think it's terribly relevant that you've seen lots of people bench him. WR3s are not consistent. That's what makes them WR3s. You draft the ones you like and stick with them for awhile. In fact no WRs are *really* consistent. You pick who you think will score the most points over the season, ignore the weekly ratings, and start them.
Did anyone in this thread actually go into their drafts prepared to take him as their second WR?
I drafted him as WR3 and started him every week. I don't think it's terribly relevant that you've seen lots of people bench him. WR3s are not consistent. That's what makes them WR3s. You draft the ones you like and stick with them for awhile. In fact no WRs are *really* consistent. You pick who you think will score the most points over the season, ignore the weekly ratings, and start them.
Did anyone in this thread actually go into their drafts prepared to take him as their second WR?
Hoss Style
Footballguy
I know I didn't. I've always said that DHB could be a good value and that T.Y.'s hype was getting out of control. But I also said that his run the 2nd half of last season was no joke. I thought he'd have great potential at some point this year if things continued like last year. Turns out the Indy Offense didn't toss the ball around early this year. When they throw, though, Hilton's producing.
I think Hilton's done what many thought he would, so far. If your WR2 isn't performing or has a tough matchup then throw Hilton in and see what happens. I said before the season and I still say - he gets more involved in the offense as it becomes more evident that this offense needs him to be more involved. Via injury, coach's decision, chance in offensive philosophy - whatever the reason - I see him becoming more involved and having more big games. And a few clunkers.
He's a 2nd year WR. Not all of them can be studs their very first year. I'm excited to see how the rest of the season goes. And I can't think of a better guy to have on your bench as a substitute for your starting WRs. He may be your WR2 by years end. I love watching him play and hope he gets more shots to make plays for Indy.
Warrior
Footballguy
I drafted him as a WR2 in almost all of my leagues. And I did so after drafting a QB, handful of RBs, a WR1, and a TE in most cases. I paid 7th round prices for a guy I expected to be y WR2 and it's turned out really well. Fwiw, I grabbed Josh Gordon as my WR3 in most leagues with fill-ins for the first couple of weeks.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
Just wanted to comment on Johnny Bloods point that not many WRs are actually consistant.
I'd say that some are, but very few. In fact, looking at weekly scoring in my league, if you trade out one of Hilton's poor games for a good one then he's a top WR in my league. DeSean Jackson is easily a WR1 in my league, and he's had 3 weekly scores of 3, 4 & 11. The point being that Hilton's not that far off from many WRs ranked higher than him.
Which is about what a WR3/Low WR2 should be, in my opinion. And he could get better.
I'd say that some are, but very few. In fact, looking at weekly scoring in my league, if you trade out one of Hilton's poor games for a good one then he's a top WR in my league. DeSean Jackson is easily a WR1 in my league, and he's had 3 weekly scores of 3, 4 & 11. The point being that Hilton's not that far off from many WRs ranked higher than him.
Which is about what a WR3/Low WR2 should be, in my opinion. And he could get better.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Yeah, DHB is awful - just as predicted. Players that have outperformed DHB so far this year:
Kris Durham
Kevin Ogletree
Marvin Jones
Jermaine Kearse
Dwayne Harris
Ace Sanders
Martin Keshawn
Kris Durham
Kevin Ogletree
Marvin Jones
Jermaine Kearse
Dwayne Harris
Ace Sanders
Martin Keshawn
Saint
Footballguy
These comparisons never make sense to me.... You can pick any player at any given timeframe and do the same thing.... For example, here are the players DHB has outperformed this year, where he was drafted later than them:
Roddy White
Cordarrelle Patterson
Ryan Broyles
Kenny Britt
Riley Cooper
My point is these lists are meaningless. What means something is whether or not he was in your lineup and performed to expectations based on where you drafted. I agree with the other folks... TY was huge last week, no doubt about it. His one week performance though, jumped him over 30 other wide receivers in top performers.... Let's look at how TY and DHB stacked up in terms of WR #s for the last five weeks for a 12-team FPC league with PPR scoring.
TY (Drafted WR29 @ 7.04) DHB (Drafted WR60 @ 14.06)Week: Weekly WR Rank Cumulative WR Rank Weekly WR Rank Cumulative WR Rank 1 WR78 WR78 WR69 WR69 2 WR18 WR40 WR92 WR88 3 WR90 WR63 WR42 WR76 4 WR47 WR57 WR60 WR74 5 WR3 WR28 WR93 WR82Read into the chart what you will, but basically Hilton scored twice above the draft owner's expectations and it is only because of his monster game in Week 5 that he is back around the total point expectation for that draft spot. DHB scored twice above the owner's expectations but overall has performed below expectation for his draft spot. Chances are most TY owners won in week 5, probably won in week 2, and lost in the other 3 weeks, for a record of 2-3, whereas the DHB owners probably never used him at all since he was a bye week filler or a wild card pick in the later rounds.
Johnny Blood
Footballguy
I'm not sure those lists are comparable. I preferred Hilton to DHB, but would have ranked DHB above or tied with all those people except Roddy, who is only underperforming DHB due to unpredictable injury.
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Hoss Style
Footballguy
I always enjoy your posts, Saint. I'm not sure what you're getting at here, though.Saint said:
Are you saying only that DHB has performed better according to his draft position when compared to T.Y.? If so, I agree.
Are you saying that DHB was a better draft pick for a team than T.Y.? If so, I disagree.
I still think T.Y. was drafted too high at the beginning of the season. I actually thought, wrongly, that DHB might of gone too low, as well. But even if T.Y. was drafted too high, I term value as how a player helps your team win.
Take out the factor of who an owner might of missed on in order to draft T.Y. I see your point there. All I'm saying is T.Y. can help you win a game (or lose a game). DHB can only help you lose a game, so far.
I use T.Y. when I need to roll the dice on a big game (maybe my opponent is a powerhouse, or one of his players blew up in the Thursday game, or my team gets hammered with a BYE week or injuries). Roll the dice and put in T.Y.
He shouldn't be used if you need consistancy in your WR spot. But that could change as the year goes on. I see upside here. The only downside I see is the offensive philosophy holding him back - but I think that might be changing a bit?
I think this is an easy win for T.Y. so far. Although I never was in to comparing DHB and Hilton - two drastically different players in my opinion.
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Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, this is pretty funny. Brett Favre is free too but I'm not getting anything out of him in a league either.Congrats on getting an unstartable player for free.
Saint
Footballguy
Here's how I am interpreting what I am reading from the stats. In terms of the overall value of the player in terms of "draft spot", such as TY as WR 29 and DHB as WR60, neither player has performed as expected up through 5 weeks. Although, the huge week for TY in week 5, put him close to expected draft value of WR29. If he performed similarly to his earlier weeks, he would still be hurting his owners. I would suspect that most people that drafted TY in rounds 6/7 have expected TY to be a weekly starter in the lineup, whereas those that drafted DHB did not have the same expectation. This is where the rub occurs.
If a team drafted TY to be an every week starter, they've been hurting so far. with the exception of 2 weeks. If you drafted TY to be a situational upside player, then I think you are in a great position, although I would question if you are drafting a situational player in round 6/7, that seems too early IMO. Based on the FPC draft data used above, I can tell you that the owner that drafted him started him every week for the first 3 weeks, then benched him. He missed last week's huge game as he is trying to improve consistency out of his WR2 spot.
The real question for me: Which TY is showing up next week?
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massraider
Footballguy
Hilton owners didn't ' probably' lose three weeks. If your WR3 didn't perform, you didn't ' probably' lose.
But two weeks this year, he had big games. The kind that help owners win weeks. That's about all you hope for with WR3s, some points, and hopefully the occasional monster game.
The other guy has to prove he is rosterable.
But two weeks this year, he had big games. The kind that help owners win weeks. That's about all you hope for with WR3s, some points, and hopefully the occasional monster game.
The other guy has to prove he is rosterable.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
Had to look it up, but TY is exactly WR 29 in my PPR league right now. DHB is WR 83
cstu
Footballguy
I made a point of telling people that you need to start him every week or else he shouldn't be on your team. If you start him every week as your WR3 you can expect him to outproduce those numbers. It was those who expected consistent WR2 numbers every week who are disappointed by him.
Saint
Footballguy
Yup. In the FPC league, TY is WR28 and DHB is WR82 currently. DHB has severely underperformed where he was drafted as WR60. TY was drafted as WR29 and he is currently at WR28, which is good. The scary part to me is in week 4, he was WR57. What a difference one week makes.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
Ok, seems we are on the same page here. The only thing we disagreed on was if DHB had performed better for his draft position and I honestly hadn't been following DHB at all. I was just guessing. I suppose he's doing worse than I thought.
I held Hilton in my keeper league and projected him as my WR3 or if the situation dictated my WR2 with boom/bust potential. So far I'm happy with his performance. I was never on board with the "super" hype but definately understood the reason for it.
donkshow
Footballguy
Hilton is doing exactly as expected, he's your classic boom bust ala Chris Johnson. The value is in starting him every week knowing he'll get you 4pts some weeks and 24pts other weeks. However, if you try to guess when he'll beast it up, you'll have him on your bench for his stud week.
Really disappointing start to the season for DHB. Not getting separation, dropping passes, etc he's basically invisible out there as a pass catcher. Hilton should start seeing more snaps per game soon, especially when Pep realizes that Indy doesn't have the personnel for a run-heavy scheme
Second Sight
Footballguy
I am watching this aspect very closely. It may be that the Colts already are coming to the realization that they are not a heavy run team that can pound the ball but
it is certainly eating into the passing attempts and, in my opinion, the flow, of the passing game. It makes me a bit uneasy if I am a Wayne or Hilton owner.
With that being said, in regards to Hilton specifically, I think it is becoming evident that Hilton is 1A to Wayne. He is garnering more targets and since he can run inside or outside routes, he has that same versatility. I like Hilton going forward and going down the stretch this season we will see the corner turned where he is no longer a boom or bust player but will soon be a reliable 7+ targets a week player who will produce with that volume.§
cstu
Footballguy
If you started him against Seattle. If you benched him that game he's still in the 50's. I checked 10 leagues and he was only started against Seattle in 2 of them - both were teams were at the bottom of the standing.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
The WR 28 or WR 50 stuff is overblown. In 6 games, he's had two great games and 4 games where he didn't even reach double digits in PPR, including two games that were abysmal. The two games where he was the star were against stout defenses. The Hilton owners likely didn't play them those weeks and started him the other weeks. If that is the assumption, Hilton's probably hurt his owners more than he's helped them. I'd split the difference and allow that most owners benefitted from his week 2 performance, but after two straight clunkers had him on the bench when he blew up against Seattle.
I don't own Hilton, and there's no denying his upside. Having said that, I would not feel very comfortable trading for him knowing his boom/bust hit rate ratio is 33pct/66pct. As a buyer, that'd make me nervous. If I did own him, I'd be selling for lower ceiling, safer options.
I do find it interesting that Irsay commented that he wanted to win more SBs with a run heavy offense as opposed to a pass heavy attack. Makes me think Irsay has more to do with their decision to play conservative than I expected.
Hopefully they adapt and unleash Luck early and when the game is close then switch to the power run game when they have a lead.
I absolutely agree that Hilton is at least equal to Wayne in the WR pecking order. The targets are just about even now
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Thoughts on TY production against the Broncos? Has all the makings of a shootout against a high flying offense and the league's last ranked pass D. Pep won't break our heart and run Trent straight into the line 30 times, will he?
CariocaSean
Footballguy
I don't think the Colts will have the luxury of running Trent 30 times this week. Should be fun and he T.Y. has a good shot at a big game. If Terrance Williams can do it...
Second Sight
Footballguy
I agree that this will be a game where Indy won't have the luxury of running the ball often. THey might hiccup and find themselves down 14 which, against Manning, is like being down 28. They also had the opportunity to learn from MNF this past week that their design of running absolutely interupts the flow of what they do best in the passing gams and that when that running game is not working, they quickly find themselves on the bad side of time possession and score.
The Colts, for the most part, are still a very young team. They don't have the ability yet to turn it on and off when they want to. They need lots of repetition in order to get that passing game flowing. They should take a page from the West Coast Offense manual and set up the run with the pass instead of trying to be tradtional. They would fare better as it would allow them to get their young pass catchers in a groove. Wayne obviously does not need that and Hilton really doesn't appear to much either but Bey and Fleener absolutely look like guys that need to have their brain flowing in the game. It does not appear to come natural to them as it does the others.§
The Colts, for the most part, are still a very young team. They don't have the ability yet to turn it on and off when they want to. They need lots of repetition in order to get that passing game flowing. They should take a page from the West Coast Offense manual and set up the run with the pass instead of trying to be tradtional. They would fare better as it would allow them to get their young pass catchers in a groove. Wayne obviously does not need that and Hilton really doesn't appear to much either but Bey and Fleener absolutely look like guys that need to have their brain flowing in the game. It does not appear to come natural to them as it does the others.§
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I have a good feeling about TY tonight and am rolling with him over Gronk in my flex
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
He sucks is what happened. He is a one trick pony....if he does not catch a bomb he is useless. In a PPR league, I would not touch him with a 10 feet pole.
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