the moops
Footballguy
Hen has shut down numerous viewpoints already.
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How Long Will Twitter Survive With Musk? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
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Footballguy
The late-night emails demanding workers to be "extremely hardcore" and the sudden decision to lock out the entire company also seem like more than business as usual.
What do you mean?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don’t know much about the tech side but I’ve seen some former Twitter employees say the systems in place are quite robust and resilient. They didn’t expect anything like that to happen. Perhaps trying to upgrade the systems and add new features, we might see bugs.
Yeah advertising and revenue has been a long standing problem. Now Musk greatly overpaid and if that comes with a loss in ad revenue, it’s hard to see how it keeps chugging along at the same volume. But we are all guessing here. It’s quite a unique situation.
3C's
Footballguy
There are posts here and in the other thread by a poster or posters which approach "Elon can do no wrong" level, much like a publicist might do.
Interesting. Thanks. Certainly Musk is a polarizing figure but I think it's been a pretty balanced and good discussion. One can support one side without being their publicist.
The General
Footballguy
When do the new features come out?
I THINK the date I heard was 11/29 for Twitter Blue. But I could well be wrong or it could have been changed.
The General
Footballguy
I want to see how this plays out and what/how they do it. I think this is where we see what’s up.
I am a bit surprised that they can run with 20% of the staff or whatever it is.
New features is where they change what they are doing and make more money grow the business like they need to. I believe they have shed advertisers in the short term (although I’d expect them to come back if the eyeballs stay).
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I have no idea how long Twitter can go on as is. I know that it is now highly leveraged in a way that it wasn't before Musk's acquisition. I know that ad revenues are down significantly and that even the pre-acquisition ad revenues would not be sufficient to prevent pretty significant ongoing operating losses considering the debt service.
What I don't know is whether Elon can scrape together more money from banks and other institutional investors even after lighting their investments in the acquisition on fire. Billionaires tend to be able to find financing even when their track records aren't particularly encouraging.
I don't really think Twitter can be killed, though. Even if it goes to bankruptcy and Elon has to sell, I imagine they'll still be something pretty attractive for the trustees to save. And Elon will lose money and face, but he'll still be fine.
What I don't know is whether Elon can scrape together more money from banks and other institutional investors even after lighting their investments in the acquisition on fire. Billionaires tend to be able to find financing even when their track records aren't particularly encouraging.
I don't really think Twitter can be killed, though. Even if it goes to bankruptcy and Elon has to sell, I imagine they'll still be something pretty attractive for the trustees to save. And Elon will lose money and face, but he'll still be fine.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I'm very skeptical of new features making up the shortfall, even conceding that with the exception of Twitter Blue and the rumored payment support, I'm largely ignorant of what new features are even being contemplated.
And that's because I think that users have a pretty settled expectation of what Twitter is and what they want to do with it. And a lot of that brand identity is tied up in the service being free. Heck, "this website is free" is the most common joke made on Twitter.
So maybe Elon has some really intriguing ideas, but I'm just not sold that users will want those ideas implemented on Twitter. Even allowing for the fact that there are big differences between how I use Twitter (follow people involved in some topics I find interesting and occassionally try to make a funny in the comments) and how content creators use Twitter.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting read from an ad company on why they are pulling out of Twitter
The Commish
Footballguy
I can't help but chuckle at this notion that "things are going exactly according to plan". There are a million ways to accomplish what the guy is doing without all the negative impacts both in loss of employees and loss of revenue. THIS is how he envisioned this going? Really? Come on 
That said, twitter's going to be around for a long while...5,10,15 years etc. Will it get gain on any of the platforms above them like Facebook, tik tok, what's app, Instagram and Snapchat? Who knows. It's been remarkable to watch such a stir over such a small market share app like Twitter.
That said, twitter's going to be around for a long while...5,10,15 years etc. Will it get gain on any of the platforms above them like Facebook, tik tok, what's app, Instagram and Snapchat? Who knows. It's been remarkable to watch such a stir over such a small market share app like Twitter.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Market share is small but it was generally recognized as the most intelligent and influential adult social media. TikTok is seen as mindless content for kids, Facebook is for your grandmother to share the equivalent of chain mail and pictures of her grand babies, Snap Chat/What’s App aren’t public so they don’t provide a lot of widespread influence, IG is all ads, thirst traps and creating illusion of a perfect life. Twitter has a lot of garbage but it’s also the first place almost every news story is broken and it has the best jokes. It’s like a non stop love commentary on the world- a shared human thought network.I can't help but chuckle at this notion that "things are going exactly according to plan". There are a million ways to accomplish what the guy is doing without all the negative impacts both in loss of employees and loss of revenue. THIS is how he envisioned this going? Really? Come on
That said, twitter's going to be around for a long while...5,10,15 years etc. Will it get gain on any of the platforms above them like Facebook, tik tok, what's app, Instagram and Snapchat? Who knows. It's been remarkable to watch such a stir over such a small market share app like Twitter.
The General
Footballguy
I don't buy it either but looking forward to the next roll out even though I don't really use this service and no way am paying for it with actual money coming out of my account. I just enjoy the soap opera.
That is kind of a funny take. The majority of posts on Musks are mocking and belittling him and predicting certain doom with very little support to counter that. Meanwhile as this poll shows almost no one really sees the end of Twitter anytime soon. I find most of the mocking of Musk to be highly juvenile, unproductive, and heavily based on unmentionable motives. Now to be called out as Musk can do no wrong, is comical and reinforces a lot of stuff. The man has worked through far bigger crisises to become the most successful business man in history. Predicting doom is very premature. Let him rebuild his team and see what ideas they roll out. It is not a two week process.There are posts here and in the other thread by a poster or posters which approach "Elon can do no wrong" level, much like a publicist might do.
The Commish
Footballguy
All of what I listed have FAR more active users than Twitter. We can lament what these apps "are" but the reality is, the likes of Twitter has less activity than freakin' LinkedIn and Pinterest. When ads are how you drive your revenue, active users are paramount. The irony of course is, even if the bold were true, and I can't even begin to determine how to validate it, this is the area being destroyed the most with the approach. So the one thing it had going for it is under major attack.Market share is small but it was generally recognized as the most intelligent and influential adult social media. TikTok is seen as mindless content for kids, Facebook is for your grandmother to share the equivalent of chain mail and pictures of her grand babies, Snap Chat/What’s App aren’t public so they don’t provide a lot of widespread influence, IG is all ads, thirst traps and creating illusion of a perfect life. Twitter has a lot of garbage but it’s also the first place almost every news story is broken and it has the best jokes. It’s like a non stop love commentary on the world- a shared human thought network.I can't help but chuckle at this notion that "things are going exactly according to plan". There are a million ways to accomplish what the guy is doing without all the negative impacts both in loss of employees and loss of revenue. THIS is how he envisioned this going? Really? Come on
That said, twitter's going to be around for a long while...5,10,15 years etc. Will it get gain on any of the platforms above them like Facebook, tik tok, what's app, Instagram and Snapchat? Who knows. It's been remarkable to watch such a stir over such a small market share app like Twitter.
I agree with this. On the other hand, Twitter has been notoriously and almost comically mismanaged from a business standpoint for a long time. I think it's just as, and perhaps more, likely that Twitter is a materially stronger business in 3 years than it is that the company implodes, though anything is on the table when Musk is this heavily involved.I can't help but chuckle at this notion that "things are going exactly according to plan". There are a million ways to accomplish what the guy is doing without all the negative impacts both in loss of employees and loss of revenue. THIS is how he envisioned this going? Really? Come on
Agreed. There's a lot of garbage but by and large, you're in control. Whenever I hear about people complaining about how terrible Twitter is, my default is most of that's on them. You get to decide mostly what you see based on who you follow. Unlike something like TikTok that's dominated by the algorithm serving you. On the flipside, that's also why it's so easy to grow on TikTok and so difficult to grow on Twitter. You can have zero following and be seen by zillions on TikTok. Way more difficult to get that exposure on Twitter if you don't already have people following you.
But from a consumer's angle, that makes for a much more usable experience as you control what you see.
And because so many people are there, the content creators are there. For real time news, it's fantastic.
NFL game clip videos are posted seconds after the actual play happens. The FTX thing unfolded nearly in real time on Twitter. It's fantastic for a great many things like that.
Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.
Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.
Why would a hedge fund manager hate Elon Musk?
More on this from last week.
The General
Footballguy
Twitter closing shop within a couple years would be a fiasco of Fyre Festival proportions. Continuing on as it currently does in 3 years would also be a pretty big disappointment.That is kind of a funny take. The majority of posts on Musks are mocking and belittling him and predicting certain doom with very little support to counter that. Meanwhile as this poll shows almost no one really sees the end of Twitter anytime soon. I find most of the mocking of Musk to be highly juvenile, unproductive, and heavily based on unmentionable motives. Now to be called out as Musk can do no wrong, is comical and reinforces a lot of stuff. The man has worked through far bigger crisises to become the most successful business man in history. Predicting doom is very premature. Let him rebuild his team and see what ideas they roll out. It is not a two week process.There are posts here and in the other thread by a poster or posters which approach "Elon can do no wrong" level, much like a publicist might do.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Same, and the thing that really makes twitter click for me is that it's an opt-in experience. As a read-only user, I see people who I voluntarily choose to follow and that's it. I can follow people who I personally find interesting, insightful, funny, or whatever based on whatever metrics I choose, and I don't have to answer or apologize to anybody about who I choose to follow. If somebody starts spamming my feed with something I'm not interested in, I can unfollow them and nobody knows or cares. It's great.
I don't follow people who use racial slurs, so I never see that sort of stuff on twitter. I'm sure its out there, but I feel like folks are telling on themselves if they're seeing this stuff now. My TL is almost exactly the same now as it was a month ago.
The reason why I have to put that "almost" qualifier in there is because Musk is making himself the proverbial main character of twitter seemingly every day now. As a result, my feed still contains too much talk about Musk and about twitter itself, which I find interesting but not so interesting that it needs to take up a quarter of my TL or whatever. Musk is an outlier because he has a huge, outsized personality and likes being the center of attention, which kind of ruins the opt-in-ness of the platform if I can't avoid him.
Can you elaborate on that?
I'll be very happy if the product stays pretty much like this for the next 3 years as I get out of it exactly what I'm looking for. (NFL Content)
The General
Footballguy
I think that would be a big failure on Elon's part as the new owner. He wants to transform it into something else that is bigger. If it is the same thing in a few years then what was the point?
Thanks. We'll disagree there. I don't think every business has to be transformed into something different. It's a pretty great product now.
We won't get political with it but I think his point is to moderate differently and call more of the shots there. I think he thinks that's important. And I think he likes being the guy everyone is talking about. Some will see him as the hero. Others clearly see him as the villain.
From a practical business side, the ad business part of Twitter has been terrible for a long time. I think he feels he can improve that some but I don't think that's what he's buying. I think some of the point may be some of the things here. https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak/status/1587489920242909188?s=20&t=fdnhyjrP-Ltg-DINQM5ANg
The General
Footballguy
Elon has said he bought Twitter to "help humanity". If the product remains unchanged other than allowing people to post who have previously been banned then something was missed IMO.
If his actual desire is to use it as platform to promote his other businesses as the guy you posted believes or to be the center of attention that you proposed then have at it, Elon. The price tag for that seems rather steep but he can afford it. I am enjoying the spectacle.
Yes. Please let's drop this tangent that was deleted as it just turns into "you're the publicist / you're a hater" that devolves.
I think we can all agree it'll be interesting to watch it play out.
I think we can all agree it'll be interesting to watch it play out.
massraider
Footballguy
I would very much like to hear who has actually agreed to buy this debt. I wouldn't be surprised if no one has--yet. It's super early.
If you buy that debt, you have to assume Musk plans to make good on that debt which he put on Twitter's books. How many of these banks have been on the other end of a leveraged buyout?
I think it is more likely that Musk puts it in bankruptcy, and buys it back. He'll own it debt-free (That 20 billion in stock he sold is a sunk cost, not debt) and won't have to pay 1-1.5 billion per year in interest. Which he could be paying for a decade trying to turn a profit.
No one believes it was a smart purchase price, but this is a reasonable strategy cut losses, retain ownership, and continue doing what he wants with the company.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Good to see he’s reversed some of the agenda based censorship already.
The General
Footballguy
He's determining who gets to have speech on his platform. Some cases everyone agrees on, others not so much. Some folks have been unbanned to create business/interest IMO.Not sure which Twitter thread to post in
Without trying to be political.... It's interesting how he's unbanning some people but keeping the ban on others
He's also just gotten started and hasn't really had any serious issues with moderating to deal with outside of relatively simple things created by rushed features (the buying of checkmarks).
The Commish
Footballguy
Hes free to do as he wants just like the last guys. The funnier thing to me is the cricket impressions some are now doing instead of being those champions of "free speech"Not sure which Twitter thread to post in
Without trying to be political.... It's interesting how he's unbanning some people but keeping the ban on others
rockaction
Footballguy
LOL
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Wow, social media really does suck.Market share is small but it was generally recognized as the most intelligent and influential adult social media.I can't help but chuckle at this notion that "things are going exactly according to plan". There are a million ways to accomplish what the guy is doing without all the negative impacts both in loss of employees and loss of revenue. THIS is how he envisioned this going? Really? Come on
That said, twitter's going to be around for a long while...5,10,15 years etc. Will it get gain on any of the platforms above them like Facebook, tik tok, what's app, Instagram and Snapchat? Who knows. It's been remarkable to watch such a stir over such a small market share app like Twitter.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Which then begs the question, why did Musk think this was worth paying $44B for?
Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.
bigbottom
Footballguy
Which then begs the question, why did Musk think this was worth paying $44B for?Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.
He did, and then he didn’t.
Battersbox
Footballguy
Back when the deal was struck, nearly everyone thought Twitter was worth $44B or in that ballpark. As a matter of fact, many thought his price was far too low. The market has moved fast this year. And it has affected basically every major tech firm, not just Twitter.Which then begs the question, why did Musk think this was worth paying $44B for?
Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.
If Musk (or any other billionaire) had agreed to buy Nvidia, or Snap, or AMD, or any of a multitude of others back at this time (April) he would have lost far more money than this. The timing was awful for the entire market, for any purchase.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Who is still banned?Not sure which Twitter thread to post in
Without trying to be political.... It's interesting how he's unbanning some people but keeping the ban on others
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
You keep bringing this up which tells me you bought into it. So I'll just ask you this - do you really think Musk essentially dared people to quit without first having an understanding of how the platform worked and without the people in place to keep the ship running? The whole hysteria this past weekend that Twitter wouldn't survive the night without crashing was clear wish casting. Bitter former employees and users who don't like Musk were projecting their personal hopes on the situation. It's the oft repeated scenario of "fired employee who think he was the only reason the place could function, tells everyone who will listen that the place will go under without him". The reality is Twitter was a mess before Musk and has been for some time. Trimming the excess fat is going to be the turning point for the company. They're already running record traffic with a fraction of the staff and overhead. And where the traffic is, the advertising dollars will follow. Companies may virtue signal for awhile, but as soon as the wokesters cast their eyes on a different shiny object, they'll surely be back. Look at how long CBS's tantrum lasted.
djmich
Footballguy
I’d bet that if we fast forward a year it’s easily much more profitable than it was. I’d be surprised if the experience isn’t better. I’d also be surprised if there aren’t a few stumbles along the way.
Agree with others that there’s too much Musk in my Twitter feed these days, although the dude is hilarious.
He’s going a little “too hard/fast” imo, but emphasis on a little and not dissimilar from environments I’ve seen and worked in previously, just this one is on THE global social stage.
Agree with others that there’s too much Musk in my Twitter feed these days, although the dude is hilarious.
He’s going a little “too hard/fast” imo, but emphasis on a little and not dissimilar from environments I’ve seen and worked in previously, just this one is on THE global social stage.
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