How Long Will Twitter Survive With Musk? (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I’d bet that if we fast forward a year it’s easily much more profitable than it was.

There's an extra billion in annual debt servicing compared to previously.

Maybe he rides this out and find new cash infusions from the Saudis or something like that, and it all comes together in a decade. But it's going to be pretty hard to even match last year's net income with that added debt burden.

 

[E Street Brat]

Longer than the PSF

 

[djmich]

I’d bet that if we fast forward a year it’s easily much more profitable than it was.

There's an extra billion in annual debt servicing compared to previously.

Maybe he rides this out and find new cash infusions from the Saudis or something like that, and it all comes together in a decade. But it's going to be pretty hard to even match last year's net income with that added debt burden.

Yes, but I was EBITDA focused

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I agree with this. On the other hand, Twitter has been notoriously and almost comically mismanaged from a business standpoint for a long time. I think it's just as, and perhaps more, likely that Twitter is a materially stronger business in 3 years than it is that the company implodes, though anything is on the table when Musk is this heavily involved.

Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.

Which then begs the question, why did Musk think this was worth paying $44B for?

He didn't, which is why ultimately the sale was enforced through litigation.

 

[djmich]

I agree with this. On the other hand, Twitter has been notoriously and almost comically mismanaged from a business standpoint for a long time. I think it's just as, and perhaps more, likely that Twitter is a materially stronger business in 3 years than it is that the company implodes, though anything is on the table when Musk is this heavily involved.

Agreed. I have a good friend that's a hedge fund manager and he told me it's commonly known the ad business side has been a trainwreck for years. He hates Musk but said it would. be hard for the new owner to do worse with it than the previous management had for years.

Which then begs the question, why did Musk think this was worth paying $44B for?

He didn't, which is why ultimately the sale was enforced through litigation.

I’m not sure the exact dates of when the initial offer was made to when he tried to back out (or negotiate down) but I think what might get lost a little bit is the time element and how much market multiples have changed over the past year.

Nothing is worth what it was 12 months ago, so he may have thought it worth 44B at one point when the going rate on revenue was 6x or whatever but that’s no longer the case. So it doesn’t have to be that he didn’t think the fundamental business wasnt worth it but that the market valuations changed which made the math worse.

 

[Jobber]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

 

[jon_mx]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

 

[bigbottom]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

 

[The General]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

I think to do this they will have to refill many of the engineer spots. They couldn’t figure out how to do colored checkmarks so new features will be a challenge.

I‘d throw some duckets on the stock if it were possible too though betting on Musk.

 

[SWC]

no social media site is worth 44b unless it does a ton of advertising or accumulates and sells user data i think the old twitter was pretty lousy at advertising so it must be that elon is going to sell a hell of a lot of data so this isnt about altruistic free speech bringing back guys like trump and mtg it is about attracting the crowd that follows them and gathering and selling thier data more users equals more data equals more money that is what my spidey gut is telling me this is all about take that to the bank brohans

 

[jon_mx]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

 

[jon_mx]

All this criticism of Twitter, but on a daily basis I see fraudulent advertising on Facebook. Eitger selling some snakeoil cure with fake medical articles or ads claiming some Gucci store is going out of business and selling fake merchandise for 90 percent off. There are so many obvious scams on Facebook and they do nothing to protect their users.

 

[bigbottom]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

 

[jon_mx]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

 

[bigbottom]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

 

[Battersbox]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

I have no idea how much the layoffs shaved of expenses. But regarding debt, it's not crazy to think he can find new equity investors and use that capital to retire the debt. I mean, if there are folks in here who would contribute equity if they were able, perhaps there are hedge fund managers or private equity bros who feel the same? In effect, can't he just sell off equity stakes in the private market to eliminate debt?

 

[jon_mx]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

You are taking a very static short-term view of the situation. This is a company which could be worth zero or could be worth $200 billion in three years. What Musk pays for some debt he incurred to make the purchase and what he paid to get rid of high level execs is not going to determine which way the company goes. In the overall view of things, it is beans. This is not about short term cash flow. This is about what kind of innovative ideas team Musk can come up with and implement to improve the user experience and to attract the best content. All these keyboard warriors trying to crunch numbers is meaningless in the scheme of things. This is an idea game.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans.

Maybe not for a guy like Elon Musk, but we're FBGs here.

 

[massraider]

I have no idea how much the layoffs shaved of expenses. But regarding debt, it's not crazy to think he can find new equity investors and use that capital to retire the debt. I mean, if there are folks in here who would contribute equity if they were able, perhaps there are hedge fund managers or private equity bros who feel the same? In effect, can't he just sell off equity stakes in the private market to eliminate debt?

100%.

I doubt he would even have to go that far. Elon knows many people that can afford to sink a billion they know they won't see again. And many of them I am sure, have a financial interest in Musk succeeding.

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

I saw a tweet with the specific numbers broken down but can't find it.

The rough math is:

- fired 75% of employees, around 5000
- average cost of employee $200k
- that is a billion dollars a year right there
- take out the 3 month severance, that is 750 million first year, 1 billion after that


At the same time, mDAU (monetizable daily active users) is up 4% since early October. Increased 1.6 million last week.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594865247323660290

 

[General Malaise]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

I have no idea how much the layoffs shaved of expenses. But regarding debt, it's not crazy to think he can find new equity investors and use that capital to retire the debt. I mean, if there are folks in here who would contribute equity if they were able, perhaps there are hedge fund managers or private equity bros who feel the same? In effect, can't he just sell off equity stakes in the private market to eliminate debt?

I'm sure Cathie Wood would partake in something like this. She wouldn't be alone. That said, some of these 'bros' are going to want some measure of control if they start handing over capital. He can't run this app like a fiefdom if he has equity partners.

 

[massraider]

He can't run this app like a fiefdom if he has equity partners.

I think he can find plenty of people with money who love what he is doing to Twitter, and I think he can also find some businesses, and countries, that might like a seat the table, and maybe a chance to affect policy.

I think he can find investors who might think losing some money on Twitter might help them make a ton more money somewhere else.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

it must be that elon is going to sell a hell of a lot of data

The new privacy rules and the new hardware from Apple, etc have put a massive dent in this business.

We advertise with FB and have had to dial our spend back probably 50-75% because we can't target like we used to. And there are likely more changes coming.

 

[Desert_Power]

I have no idea how much the layoffs shaved of expenses. But regarding debt, it's not crazy to think he can find new equity investors and use that capital to retire the debt. I mean, if there are folks in here who would contribute equity if they were able, perhaps there are hedge fund managers or private equity bros who feel the same? In effect, can't he just sell off equity stakes in the private market to eliminate debt?

100%.

I doubt he would even have to go that far. Elon knows many people that can afford to sink a billion they know they won't see again. And many of them I am sure, have a financial interest in Musk succeeding.

Musk could even buy the debt back himself if he really wanted to. A sick own of the Wall Street firms that underwrote it for a measly $7B more?

 

[The Commish]

Let's just speculate and throw out random comments as if they are "fact" and not really think about what's actually going on. @bigbottom , you're doing it wrong GB.

 

[bigbottom]

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

I saw a tweet with the specific numbers broken down but can't find it.

The rough math is:

- fired 75% of employees, around 5000
- average cost of employee $200k
- that is a billion dollars a year right there
- take out the 3 month severance, that is 750 million first year, 1 billion after that


At the same time, mDAU (monetizable daily active users) is up 4% since early October. Increased 1.6 million last week.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594865247323660290

Thanks. This is helpful. Assuming these numbers are true, that resoundingly refutes jonmx’s assertion that he has already eliminated half of Twitter’s expenses. The cuts don’t even cover the increase in debt service expenses.

 

[mr. furley]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

he actually just cracked 100 billion today. it was in the news. not 200 billion. a lot of money, sure, but you've doubled his net worth.

 

[bigbottom]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

You are taking a very static short-term view of the situation. This is a company which could be worth zero or could be worth $200 billion in three years. What Musk pays for some debt he incurred to make the purchase and what he paid to get rid of high level execs is not going to determine which way the company goes. In the overall view of things, it is beans. This is not about short term cash flow. This is about what kind of innovative ideas team Musk can come up with and implement to improve the user experience and to attract the best content. All these keyboard warriors trying to crunch numbers is meaningless in the scheme of things. This is an idea game.

You’re reading far too much into my posts. You were the one who stated that he had already eliminated half of Twitter’s expenses. I simply asked if you were basing that assertion on actual numbers or just floating an opinion. It’s clear that it’s the latter. Sure that debt may be paid off at some point in the future, but it’s a massive expense right now and more than offsets the cuts he’s made this far. Again, it was your assertion (not mine) that he had already cut half (past tense) of the company’s expenses.

 

[bigbottom]

I have no idea how much the layoffs shaved of expenses. But regarding debt, it's not crazy to think he can find new equity investors and use that capital to retire the debt. I mean, if there are folks in here who would contribute equity if they were able, perhaps there are hedge fund managers or private equity bros who feel the same? In effect, can't he just sell off equity stakes in the private market to eliminate debt?

100%.

I doubt he would even have to go that far. Elon knows many people that can afford to sink a billion they know they won't see again. And many of them I am sure, have a financial interest in Musk succeeding.

Musk could even buy the debt back himself if he really wanted to. A sick own of the Wall Street firms that underwrote it for a measly $7B more?

I’ve heard this floated before. Would it be permissible for the beneficial owner to buy back his debt at a substantial discount?

 

[thecatch]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

he actually just cracked 100 billion today. it was in the news. not 200 billion. a lot of money, sure, but you've doubled his net worth.

Unless you're seeing a news story I'm not, it looks like he's recently lost $100 billion in Tesla stock valuation. But he's still worth ~$170 billion.

 

[mr. furley]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

he actually just cracked 100 billion today. it was in the news. not 200 billion. a lot of money, sure, but you've doubled his net worth.

Unless you're seeing a news story I'm not, it looks like he's recently lost $100 billion in Tesla stock valuation. But he's still worth ~$170 billion.

aye, you're right. i saw "net worth 100 billion" and apparently misunderstood.

Fortune agrees. he has lost about 100bb this year and his net worth between 170 - 182 bb. i stand corrected.

eta: article also says his net worth was estimated at 340bb in November 2021. so he has halved it in a year. impressive.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Hard to believe anyone objectively looking at the purchase of Twitter and Musk’s performance since taking over would defend it. Change Musk’s name to “Executive X” and there would be no defense at all based on the facts as we know them. Everything relies on the magic of Elon. Fascinating.

Interesting that although some critics claimed Twitter’s moderation was politically biased, Twitter went to great lengths to maintain neutrality and set standards as clear as possible to maintain objectivity. Then Musk buys it and immediately openly politicizes the entire platform.

I haven't noticed any change at all to my twitter feed. Zero. None whatsoever. It is exactly the same as it was six months ago, at least as far as I can tell.

If you feel like your feed has a vibe you don't like, change who you follow. It's not that hard.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Similar threads:

Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings

2005 FBG/NFL Mock Draft Rounds 2 and 3

 

[Desert_Power]

I have no idea how much the layoffs shaved of expenses. But regarding debt, it's not crazy to think he can find new equity investors and use that capital to retire the debt. I mean, if there are folks in here who would contribute equity if they were able, perhaps there are hedge fund managers or private equity bros who feel the same? In effect, can't he just sell off equity stakes in the private market to eliminate debt?

100%.

I doubt he would even have to go that far. Elon knows many people that can afford to sink a billion they know they won't see again. And many of them I am sure, have a financial interest in Musk succeeding.

Musk could even buy the debt back himself if he really wanted to. A sick own of the Wall Street firms that underwrote it for a measly $7B more?

I’ve heard this floated before. Would it be permissible for the beneficial owner to buy back his debt at a substantial discount?

​

I think so. Per WSJ:

Twitter’s financial challenges could result in the company filing for bankruptcy, raising equity or buying back some debt from its lenders, analysts and academics said.

If Twitter files for bankruptcy, as Mr. Musk warned was possible in an all-hands meeting earlier this month, his $27 billion investment would likely be wiped out because equity holders are the last to be paid when a company restructures.

Buying back debt from lenders at a steep discount would help the company reduce its debt load and interest costs as well as its valuation, which would be beneficial in the long run, Mr. Davies said.

“I don’t think they can issue any more debt,” Mr. Davies said. “It’s a really, really tough structure.”

The company could also replace some of the debt with equity, both from Mr. Musk and from outside investors, said David Kass, a finance professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business. For that, Mr. Musk would need to persuade potential investors that he has a viable long-term business plan, he said. Replacing debt could enable the company to generate cash. Mr. Musk has said some of his latest Tesla Inc. stock sale, yielding almost $4 billion in cash, was because of Twitter.

If successful, the company could generate positive free cash flow in two or three years, which it could use to pay down the residual debt and eventually go public again, Mr. Kass said. “The prospect of an eventual IPO within three to five years would be a very attractive enticement for large funds,” he said.

 

[jon_mx]

The estimate is that Twitter has gone from 7500 employees to 2300 employees. Assuming a per employee expense of roughly $250k per year, that means his costs went from $1,875 million down to $575 million....a reduction of $1.3 billion. Now I expect Musk to hire about 1,000 new employees...but still $1 billion in savings over the previous level.

 

[FBG Moderator]

Posts were deleted. Keep politics out of the FFA.

 

[jon_mx]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

You are taking a very static short-term view of the situation. This is a company which could be worth zero or could be worth $200 billion in three years. What Musk pays for some debt he incurred to make the purchase and what he paid to get rid of high level execs is not going to determine which way the company goes. In the overall view of things, it is beans. This is not about short term cash flow. This is about what kind of innovative ideas team Musk can come up with and implement to improve the user experience and to attract the best content. All these keyboard warriors trying to crunch numbers is meaningless in the scheme of things. This is an idea game.

You’re reading far too much into my posts. You were the one who stated that he had already eliminated half of Twitter’s expenses. I simply asked if you were basing that assertion on actual numbers or just floating an opinion. It’s clear that it’s the latter. Sure that debt may be paid off at some point in the future, but it’s a massive expense right now and more than offsets the cuts he’s made this far. Again, it was your assertion (not mine) that he had already cut half (past tense) of the company’s expenses.

My assertion was just considering operating costs. Not financing costs, capital costs, equipment, depreciation.

 

[bigbottom]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

It’s a private platform, and Musk can do what he likes. And so can (will) advertisers. I was a money pit before the purchase, and is MUCH more so now.

Musk just eliminated over half of his expenses. I wish his stock was public, because now woukd be a great time to buy. Don't be surprised if Musk significantly expands the utility of the platform and starts to compete with YouTube.

How are you estimating the bolded? And are you taking into account that he increased Twitter’s annual debt service expense from $50 million to $1 billion?

Mostly looking at his payroll costs. Those loans won't stay on the books longterm. I woukd expect by the end of next year they will be gone.

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

As for the debt service expense, what leads you to conclude that the debt will be paid off by next year?

Not trying to bust your chops here, just trying to understand whether your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses by half is supported by actual numbers or is more in the nature of an opinion.

Musk is worth nearly $200 billion. Finding $13 billion over a year won't be that hard. You are too focused on short term one-time expenses, which are small beans if Musk develops a good business model which rewards content providers and grows its user base.

A billion dollar annual debt service expense is not small beans. And it’s a current expense for Twitter. Again, do you have any numbers to support your assertion that he has already cut half of Twitter’s overall expenses? Or did you just mean that he has cut over half of Twitter’s labor expense?

You are taking a very static short-term view of the situation. This is a company which could be worth zero or could be worth $200 billion in three years. What Musk pays for some debt he incurred to make the purchase and what he paid to get rid of high level execs is not going to determine which way the company goes. In the overall view of things, it is beans. This is not about short term cash flow. This is about what kind of innovative ideas team Musk can come up with and implement to improve the user experience and to attract the best content. All these keyboard warriors trying to crunch numbers is meaningless in the scheme of things. This is an idea game.

You’re reading far too much into my posts. You were the one who stated that he had already eliminated half of Twitter’s expenses. I simply asked if you were basing that assertion on actual numbers or just floating an opinion. It’s clear that it’s the latter. Sure that debt may be paid off at some point in the future, but it’s a massive expense right now and more than offsets the cuts he’s made this far. Again, it was your assertion (not mine) that he had already cut half (past tense) of the company’s expenses.

My assertion was just considering operating costs. Not financing costs, capital costs, equipment, depreciation.

Understood. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[KGB]

I think all replies to this thread should be 280 characters or less.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think all replies to this thread should be 280 characters or less.

Post of the day.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Posts were deleted. Keep politics out of the FFA.

Good luck. Everything about Twitter is political. They banned a duly elected sitting President, (who, apparently, we can't even name) along with many conservative voices. They Banned a satire account for naming Levine "Man of the Year", which is what got Musk's attention to begin with. Now Pfizer has pulled their advertising. Pfizer didn't need to push their vaccine - but they did need to suppress criticism. We're watching the biggest online tantrum of the left since 2016.

You actually want to discuss if Twitter will "survive" WITHOUT any political discussion? Impossible. Lock the thread and give the OP a time out.

 

[Joe Bryant]

eta: article also says his net worth was estimated at 340bb in November 2021. so he has halved it in a year. impressive.

Agreed. It's been a rough year for lots of people.

Mark Zuckerberg has shed $90 billion in 2022 while Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk have both lost $58 billion as gloomy earnings reports leave tech stocks reeling​

Another listing here

 

[Joe Bryant]

Good luck. Everything about Twitter is political. They banned a duly elected sitting President, (who, apparently, we can't even name) along with many conservative voices. They Banned a satire account for naming Levine "Man of the Year", which is what got Musk's attention to begin with. Now Pfizer has pulled their advertising. Pfizer didn't need to push their vaccine - but they did need to suppress criticism. We're watching the biggest online tantrum of the left since 2016.

You actually want to discuss if Twitter will "survive" WITHOUT any political discussion? Impossible. Lock the thread and give the OP a time out.

That's probably where both threads are headed. But just the timeout for the OP in this one.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Similar threads:

Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings

2005 FBG/NFL Mock Draft Rounds 2 and 3

That FBG Algorithm working hard...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Good luck. Everything about Twitter is political

I think it’s just that way for some posters/people. They can’t see anything without their political bias. It’s kind of sad.

 

[The General]

Well ok then.

 

[D-Day]

The problem with selling equity in twitter is the valuation. I would suspect the current valuation is much much lower than what Musk paid, and he may not want to sell a % at a loss when he can sell other assets to fund twitter. Paying off the debt may not be a priority because we don't know what the debt structure is. The interest rate may be too beneficial to pay off early.

 

[belljr]

The problem with selling equity in twitter is the valuation. I would suspect the current valuation is much much lower than what Musk paid, and he may not want to sell a % at a loss when he can sell other assets to fund twitter. Paying off the debt may not be a priority because we don't know what the debt structure is. The interest rate may be too beneficial to pay off early.

I wonder if after things settle down if he then will go back to and offer IPO

 

[Desert_Power]

The problem with selling equity in twitter is the valuation. I would suspect the current valuation is much much lower than what Musk paid, and he may not want to sell a % at a loss when he can sell other assets to fund twitter. Paying off the debt may not be a priority because we don't know what the debt structure is. The interest rate may be too beneficial to pay off early.

On mobile, but I posted a thread with the capital structure in the other Twitter thread

 

[Sammy3469]

How much, in dollars, has he cut from his payroll costs, and what percentage is that of Twitter’s overall annual expenses? Keep in mind that he’s paying out golden parachutes to a number of the executives, and three months severance apparently to everyone else, and he’s already looking to hire more people.

I saw a tweet with the specific numbers broken down but can't find it.

The rough math is:

- fired 75% of employees, around 5000
- average cost of employee $200k
- that is a billion dollars a year right there
- take out the 3 month severance, that is 750 million first year, 1 billion after that


At the same time, mDAU (monetizable daily active users) is up 4% since early October. Increased 1.6 million last week.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1594865247323660290

Thanks. This is helpful. Assuming these numbers are true, that resoundingly refutes jonmx’s assertion that he has already eliminated half of Twitter’s expenses. The cuts don’t even cover the increase in debt service expenses.

With the increase in rates, the debt service is somewhere from 1.2 to 1.7 billion annually (there's a 1 year note that also has to refinance). That's up from 23.3 million before the takeover. Firing the folks basically covers 45-75% or so of the new interest nut. That's on top of Twitter losing 230 million last year. I know some of his co-investors are in it for the Elon-call, but at this point this is still bleeding anywhere from $500 million to a billion a year.

The only real way out of this is if Elon and his pals buy up the debt for 60 cents on the dollar from the banks and give them equity which certainly can and probably will happen; but it'll only happen at a valuation that dilutes the equity holders (ie Elon and crew).