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It is, I promise.
I did some crazy analysis of my league and found that about 10% of FF is skill. Here's how I figured it out:I took the Pythagorean Record formula to calculate the record of each team in my league. I then took the difference, positive or negative, between the actual and Pythagorean records. This gives me what you can loosely call the skill bonus of the team. I took the absolute value of the skill bonus of each team and divided that by the # of games in the league. Yeah, it sucks but it is something. It indicates one of two contradictory things to me:1) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through luck.2) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through skill.Either way, it is about 10%.Jethro Q. Dynastitty Leeg Championship features none of the Big 4 draughtees (LJ/LT/SA/Tiki)LT owner (a staff member here) lost to a team that fielded Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs at RBJust goes to show you... you never ####### know... aka, It's All Luck
Interesting. In my experience "skill" in fantasy football involves two major components:1. Drafting people who have jobs, preferably in the NFL2. Setting your lineupBy my estimations about 90% of fantasy football contestants actually do these things, so I'm sure that falls into your theory somehow.I did some crazy analysis of my league and found that about 10% of FF is skill. Here's how I figured it out:I took the Pythagorean Record formula to calculate the record of each team in my league. I then took the difference, positive or negative, between the actual and Pythagorean records. This gives me what you can loosely call the skill bonus of the team. I took the absolute value of the skill bonus of each team and divided that by the # of games in the league. Yeah, it sucks but it is something. It indicates one of two contradictory things to me:1) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through luck.2) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through skill.Either way, it is about 10%.Jethro Q. Dynastitty Leeg Championship features none of the Big 4 draughtees (LJ/LT/SA/Tiki)LT owner (a staff member here) lost to a team that fielded Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs at RBJust goes to show you... you never ####### know... aka, It's All Luck
You miss the point my friend.Interesting. In my experience "skill" in fantasy football involves two major components:1. Drafting people who have jobs, preferably in the NFL2. Setting your lineupBy my estimations about 90% of fantasy football contestants actually do these things, so I'm sure that falls into your theory somehow.I did some crazy analysis of my league and found that about 10% of FF is skill. Here's how I figured it out:I took the Pythagorean Record formula to calculate the record of each team in my league. I then took the difference, positive or negative, between the actual and Pythagorean records. This gives me what you can loosely call the skill bonus of the team. I took the absolute value of the skill bonus of each team and divided that by the # of games in the league. Yeah, it sucks but it is something. It indicates one of two contradictory things to me:1) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through luck.2) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through skill.Either way, it is about 10%.Jethro Q. Dynastitty Leeg Championship features none of the Big 4 draughtees (LJ/LT/SA/Tiki)LT owner (a staff member here) lost to a team that fielded Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs at RB
EdwardCat, I did the same analysis, and it came out to 15% for me. Hmmm, our numbers must be off!You miss the point my friend.Interesting. In my experience "skill" in fantasy football involves two major components:1. Drafting people who have jobs, preferably in the NFL2. Setting your lineupBy my estimations about 90% of fantasy football contestants actually do these things, so I'm sure that falls into your theory somehow.I did some crazy analysis of my league and found that about 10% of FF is skill. Here's how I figured it out:I took the Pythagorean Record formula to calculate the record of each team in my league. I then took the difference, positive or negative, between the actual and Pythagorean records. This gives me what you can loosely call the skill bonus of the team. I took the absolute value of the skill bonus of each team and divided that by the # of games in the league. Yeah, it sucks but it is something. It indicates one of two contradictory things to me:1) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through luck.2) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through skill.Either way, it is about 10%.Jethro Q. Dynastitty Leeg Championship features none of the Big 4 draughtees (LJ/LT/SA/Tiki)LT owner (a staff member here) lost to a team that fielded Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs at RB
We may have different definitions of skill. I believe many fantasy football contestants confuse luck with skill because the luck worked in their favor. Our theories still work, because of my 90% of contestants who have the necessary skill - that is, they do not draft Domanick Davis, Marshall Faulk or Iron Head Heyward, and they set their lineups weekly - between those contestants it is 100% luck.You miss the point my friend.Interesting. In my experience "skill" in fantasy football involves two major components:1. Drafting people who have jobs, preferably in the NFL2. Setting your lineupBy my estimations about 90% of fantasy football contestants actually do these things, so I'm sure that falls into your theory somehow.I did some crazy analysis of my league and found that about 10% of FF is skill. Here's how I figured it out:I took the Pythagorean Record formula to calculate the record of each team in my league. I then took the difference, positive or negative, between the actual and Pythagorean records. This gives me what you can loosely call the skill bonus of the team. I took the absolute value of the skill bonus of each team and divided that by the # of games in the league. Yeah, it sucks but it is something. It indicates one of two contradictory things to me:1) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through luck.2) The % of games where a team exceeded or undermined their projected record through skill.Either way, it is about 10%.Jethro Q. Dynastitty Leeg Championship features none of the Big 4 draughtees (LJ/LT/SA/Tiki)LT owner (a staff member here) lost to a team that fielded Tatum Bell and Brandon Jacobs at RB
Great question VG. The league is about 10-12 years old...about 3 years ago we implemented an idea where we could have the option to keep whoever wedrafted in the 6th round. We also have limited roster spots...what I posted is the min/max at each slot. We can only carry 5 RB, 6 WR, etc...so I started grabbing guys that were not necesarily going to pay off as rookies but I felt down the road had potential. I started with Vick, grabbed LJ when he was backing up Priest, I missed the playoffs the last couple of seasons after being a regular in the playofs the years before. Now I have a decided advantage over the rest of the league...it's been a really wild year.Shaun Alexander went 1.01, Peyton Manning went 1.02...QBs usually weigh heavy in this league. McNabb not LT was winning a lot of my games early in the season. And if you want to know why I haven't cut McNabb...I was simply saving him in case a QB was on the WW that I wanted to insert in the playoffs. That has not happened but you never know. Romo and Vick have been a decent combo down the stretch.The 6th round of most drafts usually see WR and QBs snatched up. This league is like that as well. Guys like Palmer, Eli, and a lot of the 10-25 preseason ranked WR are already on rosters. It makes the drafts very interesting. I have tried to secure the 1st pick in most years in the 6th round. Whoever had it if I didn't draw the slot, I usually trade down in the 4th or 5th to get it. Instead of grabbing mid range WR I usually try for a RB. LJ paid off. I did take Lee Evans this year...probably will send him back in the pool as I am sure he will be around in those mid rounds again next season.
I had the 8th pick in our 10 team PPR league, and didn't manage to snag LT, SA or LJ, but am in the championship game this coming weekend. My complete roster is in my signature, and the roster I started this week to beat the #1 seed and advance to the title game is:QB - J. GarciaRB - S. JacksonRB - R. BushWR - D. DriverWR - R. WilliamsTE - T. HeapK - J. CarneyDT - PatriotsMy opponent in the title game does have LT, so I've got a tough game ahead. The #1 seed that I beat to advance has both LJ and SA, so they're done in our league for the year.
(KJs injury hurt)
Jzilla, over the years, someone on this board once said, FFL is alot like poker. More skill than bad players want to admit and more luck than good players want to admit. something like that. I'm in 4 superbowls, the one I care about most is in my sig:
