Increased Completion Percentage Correlated With Uptick in Wins? (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

hope this isn't a honda...

interesting tool if the linkage isn't trivial...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/stor...&id=2881407

 

[Bracie Smathers]

hope this isn't a honda...

interesting tool if the linkage isn't trivial...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/stor...&id=2881407

Note who ranks #1 and who ranks #5 both seem to fly in the face of Clayon's completion percentage sabermetric conclusions.
NFL Leaders in %Pass Completion (Thru games of Dec. 31, 2006) (14 Att/Game) Rank Player Team 1 David Carr Hou 68.3 ( 302/442 ) 2 Tony Romo Dal 65.3 ( 220/337 ) 3 Peyton Manning Ind 65.0 ( 362/557 ) 4 Chad Pennington NYJ 64.5 ( 313/485 ) 5 Charlie Frye Cle 64.3 ( 252/392 ) 6 Drew Brees NO 64.3 ( 356/554 ) 7 Steve McNair Bal 63.0 ( 295/468 ) 8 Marc Bulger StL 62.9 ( 370/588 ) 9 J.P. Losman Buf 62.5 ( 268/429 ) 10 Jon Kitna Det 62.4 ( 372/596 ) 11t Carson Palmer Cin 62.3 ( 324/520 ) 11t Mark Brunell Was 62.3 ( 162/260 ) 13 Tom Brady NE 61.8 ( 319/516 ) 14 Philip Rivers SD 61.7 ( 284/460 ) 15 Brad Johnson Min 61.5 ( 270/439 ) 16 Jake Delhomme Car 61.0 ( 263/431 ) 17 Damon Huard KC 60.7 ( 148/244 ) 18 David Garrard Jac 60.2 ( 145/241 ) 19 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 59.7 ( 280/469 ) 20 Alex Smith SF 58.1 ( 257/442 ) Clayton throws in that a QB has to also have a 'respectable' yards per completion to go along with a completion percentage leap of over 5% Look at Carr's yards per attempt and completion percentage over the last two seasons.

8, David Carr, QB, Houston Texans

Career Passing Stats Year Team G Att Cmp Cmp% Yds Yd/A TD Int Sacked Yds Rating 2005 Hou 16 423 256 60.5 2488 5.9 14 11 68 424 77.2 2006 Hou 16 442 302 68.3 2767 6.3 11 12 41 240 82.1 Then look at Frye.

9, Charlie Frye, QB, Cleveland Browns

Career Passing Stats Year Team G Att Cmp Cmp% Yds Yd/A TD Int Sacked Yds Rating 2005 Cle 7 164 98 59.8 1002 6.1 4 5 22 135 72.8 2006 Cle 13 392 252 64.3 2454 6.3 10 17 44 262 72.2 Both Carr and Frye had leaps in their completion percentage and both increased their yards per completion yet both saw thier QB passer ratings go down and both saw their teams lose more games last year.

I'm not so sure the conclusions that Clayton has drawn are universally valid on this one.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

He does say the ypa need to be kept respectable (mid 6s and higher) and neither Carr nor Frye do.

 

[coolnerd]

The Texans actually won 4 games in 2006 (6) than 2005 (2), but that merely translates from aa horrible football team to another bad one. Both years reflect a passing game that was at times efficient (primarily late in games), but was rarely effective in generating difference making plays i.e. low TD numbers and low yards per attempt/completion. In this case, the team should actually improve by having a lower completion percentage, but a higher ypa/c by getting the ball down field more effectively and playing closer games.

Overall, imo these numbers are more reflective than predictive. His conclusion is that if a team passes more efficiently and makes at least a decent number of difference making plays then the team will improve. Not really easy to just predict increase in either category.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

So he's basically saying "if you can complete a high percentage of passes AND get lots of yards with those attempts, you will win games".

DUH

 

[SuperJohn96]

[Madden]

You see, if you score more points than the other team, that's going to win you some games. You need the more points.

[/Madden]

 

[redman]

I think that having a turkey neck is conducive to being a geeky football reporter.

 

[chris1969]

[Madden]You see, if you score more points than the other team, that's going to win you some games. You need the more points.[/Madden]

This thread needs a telestrator.

 

[duaneok66]

we have the guys at FootballOutsiders.com who publish the brilliant Pro Football Prospectus series, and Clayton gives us this???

welcome to Teletubbies . . .

 

[Bob Magaw]

i think madden did his doctoral thesis on correlation between scoring more than opponents leading to more wins... it was magisterial...

 

[SSOG]

Comp% is such a flawed and poor statistic. Yards Per Attempt is SO MUCH better than comp%, because it adjusts for offense. Let's say you have a QB who throws 5 yard curls on every play and completes 80%, and another QB who throws 20 yard bombs on every play but only completes 40%. Which QB is better? Comparing Comp% in this instance is so totally useless (unless you expect a QB to be able to complete as many passes on 20 yard fly routes as on 5 yard curl routes), but you can compare the YPA, which AUTOMATICALLY ADJUSTS for Comp% and also factors in the depth of the throws.

I believe it was Bill James who determined that, among all simple statistics in football (simple statistics being defined as any of the single statistics the NFL officially tracks or any combination of two statistics the NFL tracks via addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division), no other statistic correlated better with winning than YPA and YPA Allowed (and yes, that includes comp%).

I really wish the NFL would do away with all this comp% talk in broadcasts and articles. It's emphasized far too much- especially in the Passer Rating formula, which double-counts it (once in the comp% item and once again in the YPA item).