LittlePhatty
Footballguy
His college highlights seem to lean that way too - lots of direction changes and bouncing around. Not a good sign, but he's on my deep-bench roster anyway just in case.
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Marlon Mack, RB, DEN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ShamrockPride
- Start date
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
If I'm Indy, I'm thinking about putting him in the backfield with Luck and the still-young WRs in an effort to see what we got for next year. Love me some Gore but that door is just about closed.
It's not like it's a guarantee Charles would be the starter in the event CJ went down. They have 2 capable backs behind him. Charles isn't Mr Durability either.
if Mack makes this 60/40 he will be a great flex borderline RB2 imo
OK, but if Gore made it 100/0, he too will be a great RB2.
My scenario is only slightly less plausible than yours, barring injury.
I’d be shocked if Mack gets 60% of the carries over a healthy Gore. That’s just wishful thinking.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I think Houston and Denver look brutal against the rush, but nothing else really sticks out. 2 games left against Jacksonville is pretty nice.
Rush D Rank
wk 6 - #17 - @TEN
wk 7 - #32 - JAX
wk 8 - #9 - @CIN
wk 9 - #4 - @HOU
wk 10 - #15 - PIT
wk 12 - #17 - TEN
wk 13 - #32 - @JAX
wk 14 - #12 - @BUF
wk 15 - #1 - DEN
wk 16 - #22 - @BAL
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Weebs210
Footballguy
I disagree. It's not like Gore has been giving them a reason to keep trotting him out there. Mack has taken advantage of every opportunity they've given him and has outproduced Gore running the ball. Last week it was 14 Gore 9 Mack. Those could easily be flip flopped if Mack keeps producing and Gore doesn't.
That's 60/40
Gore is the same player the Colts have given 250+ carries to for the last two years. This year he's on pace for 240.
There's no evidence (that I've seen) to suggest someone else is suddenly going to take the majority of the work away from him.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
There's more to a rb than running. Keeping Luck alive takes priority above all else. Gore can do that. Mack can't. Not yet.
The Frankman
Footballguy
I get the every down back thing... but not even a 3rd down back? WTH is Mack poor in pass protection or something? Or is Pagano being an idiot?
in2win
Footballguy
Yet wasn't Andrew Luck one of the most sacked and hurried NFL QBS the last few years?
I know last year was bad
Why could they be easily flip-flopped? There's nothing to suggest that, except you want it to happen.
I could say that Matt Ryan could easily flip flop back to his MVP production of last year but there is nothing to support that statement.
Saying something doesn't make it true, nor does wishing for it.
I'm sure the Colts will keep everything the same if Mack keeps producing and Gore doesn't. You're acting like Gore doesn't have 3.2 y/pa. That's terrible.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
You're now comparing a shift in usage between 2 RBs to QB production. He's simply saying that Mack has been more effective when given an opportunity, and taking carries from Gore and giving them to Mack isn't unrealistic.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
This has never been a priority in IND. But even if they did come to their senses and decide that they need to protect their QB, Luck won't be in for at least 3 to 4 weeks. In the meantime, the team is at 2-3 and will be chasing Houston. If they're going to win with Brissett, they're going to need some production from somewhere. I don't think it's out of the question for Mack to become more involved. However, I have no trust in Pagano (I thought he and GM Grigson should've been fired long ago).
The more realistic approach would be that Mack stays at the same or gets slightly more work than he has. We all want to see the young kids get their chance, but generally they're eased into these scenarios slowly. They know what they have in Gore and while he isn't busting through defenses or winning games for them, he isn't going to make many costly mistakes that cost them games either. You can't say for certain that Mack won't make those mistakes.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
For those who have more knowledge on Mack, is there a possibility he develops into a receiving back this year? I'm curious if there could be value when Luck returns that would mitigate a lot of the very valid points offered about Gore's utter consistency.
You're acting like Gore isn't the established vet & Mack isn't a rookie who tries to bounce EVERY run outside & has been stuffed for no yards gained or lost yardage on 44% of his runs. Indy's line shares some of that blame, but Gore has only been stuffed like that 25% of the time (on 3x the carries). Sure, every once in a while, Mack can bust a big one, but most coaches want a RB who won't put them in negative down/distance plays.
You're also ignoring the fact that Mack has played 3 games and sucked in two of them. 2.4 YPC in week 1, and -2.0 YPC in week 2. Yeah, he had 3 big runs this last week, but he hasn't performed "every chance he got" & outperformed Gore all season. He had a great game, but it was one game & until he learns to run plays as they are designed, earns the coaches trust in protecting the QB (especially when Luck gets back) & becomes more consistent, I doubt he will become the lead back.
There is obviously a better than zero % chance that Mack will become the lead back in a 60/40 split. But there has been NOTHING to suggest that this is going to happen anytime soon, and just because you want it to happen doesn't mean it will. There is a better than zero % chance that I will win the lottery, but I'm going out to buy a yacht based on those long odds. I might buy a ticket & see what happens, but it would be foolish to make plans for that money right now, just as it's foolish to suggest that Mack could easily take the lead job in Ind.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Re: Pass Protection
Marlon Mack is Colts' best RB playmaker since Peyton Manning years
Re: Heading for the corner store
Week 5 Rookie Report: The Marlon Mack Saga
Marlon Mack is Colts' best RB playmaker since Peyton Manning years
Re: Heading for the corner store
Week 5 Rookie Report: The Marlon Mack Saga
Exactly, and to further illustrate what I posted earlier, Mack has 4 good/great runs (15+ yards), 3 average/good runs (between 4-14 yards), and 18 BAD runs (3 yards or less). Of those 18 bad runs, 11 of them have been for 0 or negative yardage. We're seeing the highlights and going "Wow!" I'm sure the coaches are looking at the fact that 72% of the time Mack fails to get more than 3 yards and saying "that's got to get better."
Seems like Pagano doesn't think Mack should easily be getting 60% of the touches just yet.
http://fftoday.com/news/index.php?Item=11929
http://fftoday.com/news/index.php?Item=11929
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
As opposed to Frank Gore’s 3.0 ypc or Robert Turbin’s half yard and a cloud of dust?Bayhawks said:
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Honestly, I don’t disagree that Mack for the time being will be a satellite type option and not a 25 carry/game guy. But who is anymore. Let’s not kid ourselves that the Colts think he’s a worse off option than Gore or Turbin based off of unproductive carries though. If he gets 12-15 touches he’s a solid flex and potential #2 back in today’s NFL.
Yeah. 3 yards + 3 yards = a manageable 3rd & 4.
0 yards + -2 yards = an unlikely 3rd & 12.
Which one do you think a coach prefers?
Let’s also not kid ourselves & pretend like his HC hasn’t said that he’s not ready for a bigger role.
WiDDoW_MaKeR
Footballguy
To be fair... the coach said in fact that he has earned a bigger role. The coach said that he isn't ready to be an every down back or a 3rd down back yet. That's a lot different than not being ready for a bigger role. They could easily get him more touches on 1st and 2nd down.
True; was typing on my phone & was too lazy to type out “every back or 3rd down” role.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’m not sure what you’re arguing here... do you really believe that one dimensional RB’s that can’t move an offense offer something in today’s NFL? Your situation rarely ends up like that on either side of the coin. It’s why Latavius Murray gave way to McKinnon in the Vikings game last week. I conceded to your point that Mack probably won’t (and most likely shouldn’t) see 20 carries but if you want to continue to defend a 34 year old RB who can’t catch and Robert Turbin... well, that’s just a poor hill to die on.
Not doing that, just pointing out that coaches don’t care about FF owners who look at highlights of their rookie RB and say “he’ll take 60% of the work,” when their lowlights (which posters in this thread ignore) are really low. Coaches are typically risk-averse & if they have to choose between a guy who will put them in negative yardage situations a lot but make an occasional big play and a guy who will make fewer big plays but also fewer negative plays, they typically choose the latter; and Gore is the latter. Pagano has said this just this week, but some posters ignore this and pretend that what they hope will happen will “easily” take place.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
One of the most annoying things about the Shark Pool is the threads being constantly bumped as the same posters go back-and-forth about what they THINK will happen. It's all speculation, we made our stances known,.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Carries? If both are healthy, Gore. Touches and TD’s? I would feel comfortable predicting Mack. Gore is not getting touches when they hit the 20 and Gore can’t catch the ball. He’s an exciting upside flex.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Disagree with you saying that Gore can't catch the ball.
He has been underutilized as a receiver by Harbaugh in the past, but it doesn't have anything to do with his ability.
I guess I should go out and buy a lottery ticket then...
ESPN’s Mike Wells expects Marlon Mack to have an "increased workload" on Monday night against the Titans.
This falls with Chuck Pagano’s plan to get Mack more carries. Mack led Indy to an overtime win last week, adding a big-play threat to an offense that’s lacked splash plays without Andrew Luck. The Colts have misplaced loyalty to Frank Gore, a 34-year-old on an expired deal with three straight sub-4.0 YPC seasons . Mack was a workhorse for star HC Willie Taggart at USF — starting 36-of-36 games — and is miscast in a change-up role. The Colts need to make the move to Mack if they want to get him double-digit starts — a streak he’s had since college. Mack is the future in Indy and deserves to start.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Looking back, seems I have a misconception about Gore’s career. He did have some nice dual threat season’s. I guess it’s just hard for me to fathom a 34 year old on his definitive last legs as taking on a full three down role. They’ve already pulled him as the goal line back. It really isn’t for lack of playmakers because Hilton and Moncrief offer some home run ability. It’s just with Brissett they need all the help they can get to score TD’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mack was actually less involved (or less productive this week). I think he is an indefinite hold over a lot of other players though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Frank Gore had 58 targets for the Colts in 2015 and 47 targets in 2016 averages out to 3.2 targets per game over the last two seasons. He caught 72 of those targets 69% which is slightly below average for a RB. He caught 58.6% of his targets in 2015 then 80.9% of his targets in 2016. The yards per reception was 7.9 and 7.3 respectively which is slightly above average for a RB.
This year Gore has 11 targets 8 receptions 73% catch rate (average for a RB) and 10.3 yards per reception (above average for a RB). This is 2.2 targets per game so far, so one target less per game than the previous two seasons with the Colts. Gores longest reception so far this year was 26 yards.
5 games is a small sample, I could easily see Gore finishing with 3.2 targets per game again if he is targeted more frequently in games ahead.
Robert Turbin has 6 targets 5 receptions 83.3% catch rate (above average) 3.8 yards per reception (below average). with a long of 11 yards.
Marlon Mack in 3 games has 3 targets 3 receptions 100% catch rate (above average) 11.3 yards per reception (above average) with a long of 21 yards.
I think Turbin and Gore are more reliable in pass protection, so I don't really see why Mack would take over the role as their receiving RB any time soon.
This year Gore has 11 targets 8 receptions 73% catch rate (average for a RB) and 10.3 yards per reception (above average for a RB). This is 2.2 targets per game so far, so one target less per game than the previous two seasons with the Colts. Gores longest reception so far this year was 26 yards.
5 games is a small sample, I could easily see Gore finishing with 3.2 targets per game again if he is targeted more frequently in games ahead.
Robert Turbin has 6 targets 5 receptions 83.3% catch rate (above average) 3.8 yards per reception (below average). with a long of 11 yards.
Marlon Mack in 3 games has 3 targets 3 receptions 100% catch rate (above average) 11.3 yards per reception (above average) with a long of 21 yards.
I think Turbin and Gore are more reliable in pass protection, so I don't really see why Mack would take over the role as their receiving RB any time soon.
1-increases touches isn’t a 60/40 split on Mack’s favor, which is what the original post I responded to said (I don’t remember if it was your post or not)
2-Who is more credible with regards to PT on the Indianapolis Colts? A reporter from ESPN, or the HC of the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS? Hmmm, that’s a tough one.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
When did they do this?
Gore has 2 rushing TD so far this year.
I agree that Mack offers some explosive play ability that Gore may not offer at this point of his career. So reason to have Mack get some opportunity, and as Pagano says perhaps more opportunities moving forward. I just don't see any reason why they would play Mack over Gore who is more reliable and proven than Mack.
When/if Andrew Luck comes back I would think pass protection will be of even greater importance, thus reliance on Gore at that time because of that.
eta - I don't think very highly of Pagano as a coach. The above assumes rational coaching which might not apply to him.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Gore has zero goal line carries and 10 red zone carries this year (or 2 per game). Marlon Mack has 4 RZ carries and 3 goal line carries, Robert Turbin has 6 RZ carries and 3 goal line carries.
This also shows us how bad Indy is at getting in the Red Zone I think.
Edit to add: completely agree about Pagano. Awful head coach. I don’t think Chud is a bad OC though.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Interesting. What is your source for the goal line information?
I don't usually pay attention to red zone splits, but looking it up on PFR seems accurate.
I see 9 rushing attempts for Gore in the red zone 1 target. 3 attempts from within 10 yards of the goal line.
Mack 4 rushing attempts in the red zone. 3 attempts from within 10 yards of the goal line.
Its not entirely clear to me if those numbers overlap? Or if they are differentiated or not. I think overlap but I could be wrong about that.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
It was brought up on a rotoworld podcast. There is indeed ~ 3 carries within the 5 by Gore on the season at a glance on Pro Football Reference (so I’m not sure what defines “goal line carry” and “red zone carry”). I think the bigger point is the RB position for Indy is relatively fluid right now. I think Gore knows this too, he was one of the first people to celebrate with Mack last week on his TD.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think its remarkable that Mack has gotten the opportunities he has in that situation.
Mack has some ball security issues that some coaches might not be comfortable with him in those situations. That does not seem to be the case here though as he has had 4 opportunities in 3 games in that situation.
From watching Mack I think he does a really nice job switching the ball to either hand while he is running. He does this more than I see most other RB do. That can make a coach nervous about him exposing the ball while he is switching it to the other hand, if a defender hits him while he is doing this, it is more likely to get the ball knocked out. On the positive side of this, I think it shows good awareness by Mack to switch the ball away from defenders and enable him to use either hand to stiff arm defenders, making his stiff arms more effective because of it.
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rschroeder1
Footballguy
For redraft purposes, I think previous posts here have outlined a number of reasons why it's unlikely (but not impossible) that Mack becomes the lead back this season. I do wonder though if the Colts have designs on a Tarik Cohen-lite role for Mack, in particular if/when Luck returns. While I can't claim to have ever watched a college game of his, he did catch 65 balls in three years at USF. He just seems like the type of player that you might not use as the designated receiving back, i.e. in 3rd down passing situations, but a guy that you're going to make an attempt to get the ball into his hands in different situations. While he definitely is unpolished, the burst he has seems remarkable. I'm inclined to hold to see if this plays out.
However, as @Biabreakable has noted, there may be very good reasons this scenario doesn't develop because of Pagano's coaching philosophy.
However, as @Biabreakable has noted, there may be very good reasons this scenario doesn't develop because of Pagano's coaching philosophy.
