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Marlon Mack, RB, DEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ShamrockPride
- Start date
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Mack is far from a superstar, and isn't a great RB1 or even clear-cut RB2, but hard to see how he can't add value to an FF squad as a low-end RB2/flex with upside.
Colts bolstered their line significntly, and as far as Mack's competition goes, Wilkins looks like a finesse/COP back who despite his size, doesn't have speed or ability to move piles, and Hines also seems like an all-purpose smaller back who is more of an athlete than prototypical RB.
This is not to say either Hines or Wilkins can shine, or that Mack won't get mired in a potential RBBC, but Mack seems the clear forerunner in terms of both skillset and experience to be a 2-down back, with upside given that the competition behind him doesn't seem compelling.
Colts may still sign an RB and things might change, but right now, Mack seems like later round value for my squad.
Colts bolstered their line significntly, and as far as Mack's competition goes, Wilkins looks like a finesse/COP back who despite his size, doesn't have speed or ability to move piles, and Hines also seems like an all-purpose smaller back who is more of an athlete than prototypical RB.
This is not to say either Hines or Wilkins can shine, or that Mack won't get mired in a potential RBBC, but Mack seems the clear forerunner in terms of both skillset and experience to be a 2-down back, with upside given that the competition behind him doesn't seem compelling.
Colts may still sign an RB and things might change, but right now, Mack seems like later round value for my squad.
nirad3
Footballguy
good analysis and I think you might be undervaluing Mack. maybe wishful thinking as a Mack owner but I don't see Hines/Wilkins cutting into carries and Mack should be able to catch the ball out of the backfield
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I may indeed be undervaluing Mack, and we all may be undervaluing what Hines/Wilkins can bring to the table on this team and at this level. Time will tell, as always.
I do think, given all info we have right now, we're aligned in thinking that the cow to have in this pasture right now is Mack, and I'll be looking to scoop him as a value play at the right ADP.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
What FA RB could the Colts sign that would change your rating of Mack? The only one out there imo is DeMarco Murray..... I just find it hard to believe IND would go in that direction. Or that Murray would be interested in playing for a team that far away from the playoffs.
I think Murray could help a lot of teams but IND seems like one of the destinations that makes the least amount of sense.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Hopefully Mack has improved from last year. You can't keep handing the ball to a guy that doesn't get past the line of scrimmage 33% of the time, it just sets up your offense in bad situations way too often. With Luck back and an improved o-line there's hope, I just can't imagine going into the season without someone who can fall forward for 2-3 yards on a consistent basis.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like the song you made up for him better than the song the OP is referring to in the title.
Stick with your version.
Borden
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Its a pretty good New Jack Swing jam.
But he did the Mack the Monster Mack still more enjoyable to me.
If he keeps going off script he is going to get mack the knifed though.
the lone star
Footballguy
Was kinda hoping they'd keep Matt Jones and he could perhaps secure a sizable role with the team. I like Mack more than Jones, but I think Luck would have liked Jones a bit.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Unless at least two other AFC South teams get hit by injuries I can't say I agree with that.
Luck was able to carry the entire franchise on his back.... in 2014. Until I see him play at that level again I'm not going to assume he'll get back to that level. Since then the franchise hasn't finished above .500 in a season(20-28). Las Vegas has them at 6.5 wins so it's not just me.
I think it's very unlikely the Colts sign Demarco Murray. Chris Ballard has said (multiple times this off season) that he wants to build through the draft and that bringing in high price veterans can stunt the development of their young players. I don't think Ballard would have used two mid round picks on RBs if he was interested in bringing in a free agent.
I would guess the Colts employ a RBBC at least early in the season until Mack, Hines, or Wilkins can separate themselves from the others.
Don’t forget that the 2 years prior, including the year he was drafted #1 overall, he also led them to the playoffs. Think about that, he led a team to the playoffs that was the worst team in the league in the previous year. He has the ability to do it. A new coach and a much improved offensive line and defense, they have a shot. Luck can have a shoot out with the the best of them if he gets back to form
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Murray could still do better as a 2-down back than Mack (and honestly he's not in the position to really be picky about the teams he goes to). I could see them bring in Orleans Darkwa, Benny Cunningham, Andre Ellington, or Alfred Blue to mire Mack in a pure timeshare. Shane Vereen has a different skillset but him and a guy like Terrance West could also take carries away from Mack to the point where his fantasy value may not be worthwhile based on volume. Guys like Peterson and Lacy are still out there but I think they are washed.
Essentially, I think the Colts could and should kick the tires on a FA back, bring someone in to at least provide competition and some more relative depth, any of whom, if they still have gas in the tank could render Mack's value less than ideal.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Blue re-signed with Houston and those other guys are journeyman bums. If they forced a timeshare it would mean Mack wasn't good enough to be the feature back anyway (which may be the case). Plus they do have a veteran back in Robert Turbin who is just as good/bad as any of the guys you mentioned. I doubt they add anyone else.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think Murray would easily get the carries until he got hurt were he to sign. The rest are journeyman bums, but Murray still has enough left to siphon off early down carries. Nothing is pointing to Mack being the man anyway- they’ve alluded to splitting carries, with turbins name being mentioned in the same breath. If you can’t keep turbin on the bench, how good can you be? Like the oline additions and defensive additions but the rest of the offense hasn’t really stepped forward. Lucks health is unclear at this point, they added Ebron but not much at wr (dez, Marshall, maclin perhaps?), and Hines at rb. If I were a colts fan I’d be a little worried. Even if luck plays he won’t have a lot of weapons, and I don’t see a run game materializing from Mack, Hines, and turbin. These guys aren’t out of the offseason woods yet, but if they make it they will have little more than flex value imo.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was talking about the guys he mentioned as depth not Murray - but I think Murray is on his last legs and I don't see a young rebuilding team like Indy signing him anyway.
I don't think we really know how this backfield will shape up yet and while Mack is the incumbent, since it was under a totally different coaching staff his experience doesn't really give him much of an advantage over Hines or Wilkins.
I agree that if Mack doesn't keep Turbin on the bench its the same thing as losing significant touches to Orleans Darkwa, Benny Cunningham and Andre Ellington - it would mean he's not good enough to be a feature back.
I do think Mack is the most complete back out of the current stable and I would expect him to lead the committee but he's far from proven and he still needs to change the way he carries the ball or turnovers will be an issue. In the league I do own him I also drafted Hines and Wilkins (who come relatively cheaply in rookie drafts) as all of a sudden - provided Luck is healthy this looks like a pretty good situation with the additions to the o-line. Honestly I don't think Jacoby Brissett is so bad and with gaining some experience and with his ability to rub the ball I still like whoever emerges in Indy even without Luck.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
This is the point. Mack has talent, but hasn't proven to me he is a feature back as opposed to a committee back. He's only had one year in the league behind one of the most durable and consistent backs this era, so he may step up now that Gore has moved on. But from what I've seen Mack's game is more around slippery elusiveness and not the kind of north/south inside the tackles guy that is more a prototypical feature back.
While the other guys I mentioned are not stellar, at this point they are more proven than any of the other guys in the Colts' backfield right now, and I don't think I can say Mack's game is clearly head-and-shoulders above any of them to the point where it wouldn't be a full-blown committee if any of them sign.
We'll see -- Mack is certainly in the position to step up and take the job. If the Colts don't sign anyone else, I think the value is there.
How about
Ms Marlon Mack Mack Mack
The running back back back
At least until til til
He gives up a sack sack sack
You’re all so high high high
He’s just a guy guy guy
He’ll lose the job job job
By mid July ly ly
Borden
Footballguy
Fred Lane
Footballguy
Watch out Marlon Mack Mack Mack
Behind your back back back
Cause on the lines lines lines
Is Nyheim Hines Hines Hines
If you can't block block block
And Luck gets sacked sacked sacked
Then Mack the Knife Knife Knife
Meet chopping block block block
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, I think the is the crux of your argument: Mack and anybody with a pulse is going to split carries.
Most of the guys you mentioned will need an injury just to get a job in the NFL this season imo. Darkwa(assuming the surgery from two days ago goes well) is the lone name that you mentioned that is still young, will be cheap..... I can see him maybe stealing carries but I disagree with most of the other players on the list. Anyone that can get 4.4y/c behind that train wreck OL in NY deserves a chance. Also saw that Tion Green got released by DET after getting caught up in a numbers game there. He showed a few flashes last season imo, again in an almost impossible situation to produce. Both were completely undrafted last year though so I would expect either to be on the roster bubble until the final cut down day.
But I also think the "north/south inside the tackles guy that is more a prototypical feature back" is a bit outdated. Maybe that still has a place on a team like JAX, but I have seen JAX and, despite all the folks that think IND is a playoff contender, this Colts team is no JAX.
Borden
Footballguy
***Off-Topic****BoltBacker said:
Removing the defence for a second, Jax is setting up their offense nicely to have a back like Fournette. Lee, Chark and Westbrook all have a lot of speed. So if a team puts smaller corners on the field to keep up with them then those DBs have to pray that the front 7 gets to Fournette first. It’s kind of a fun offense.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
32% of Macks runs as a rookie went for 0 or negative yards last year. Just backing up what we have seen of him at the college level as well.
I think he needs to fix that or Reich (and any other coach) is going to get sick of consistently being behind schedule producing 1st downs.
I think he needs to fix that or Reich (and any other coach) is going to get sick of consistently being behind schedule producing 1st downs.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Using a magazine called pro forecast fantasy football that I was reading while camping last week actually. I assume it is accurate but I cannot easily verify it with PFR splits or anything.
On the positive side of this Mack did have 6 runs of 20+ yards (6% of his runs) which tied for 11th with a bunch of other RB last year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
32 NFL observations, Week 15
Excerpt:
Mack can be explosive with some long runs but on the flip side he had around a third of his carries last year that failed to generate positive yardage.
Mack had only one fumble last year; however, he had some issues with fumbles in college.
Marlon Mack combine profile on NFL.com
Excerpt:
I like him and his outlook this year but there are some yellow flags to be aware of.
Excerpt:
Mack can be explosive with some long runs but on the flip side he had around a third of his carries last year that failed to generate positive yardage.
Mack had only one fumble last year; however, he had some issues with fumbles in college.
Marlon Mack combine profile on NFL.com
Excerpt:
I like him and his outlook this year but there are some yellow flags to be aware of.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
What do we have another Chris Davis?
Chaka
Footballguy
The offensive line in Indy last season was pretty terrible. And all props in the world to Brisset but he doesn't keep defenses honest the way a guy like Luck can.
Only point is there is not much similarity between the 2017 & 2018 Colts.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Interesting(and very old school).Biabreakable said:
Did they happen to list how many runs Mixon had for 0 or negative yards? I was just curious. To me those two guys aren't very far apart but FF drafters seem to disagree with me vehemently. I was just trying to find differentiating factors to explain why one guy is being so embraced by the FF community and the other is being relatively ignored.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
1. Draft degree (Mixon)
2. Mixon played behind the 5th worst OL last year. This will be improved this year.
3. Competition: Mixon got a little over 60% share last year which should increase but Gio is not going anywhere.
4. Competition B: If the Colts have confidence in Mack then why did they draft not one but two running backs. There’s too much uncertainty for anyone to take that chance right now.
5. I own both so I hope they both produce at a high level but the arrow points to Mixon on both expectations and opportunities.
Tex
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Not to nitpick, but the Bengals drafted a RB 8 picks after the colts selected there first RB in the draft. Gio also is better than any RB on the colts roster, at least before the draft.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah it is an interesting stat that I don't have complete data for to try to put this into context or historical context. It would be interesting I think to look at all the RB and how often they might gain 0 or less yards on their rushing attempts.
As the article states, 32% was the second worst in the league, (which makes me wonder who was worse than Mack) in 2017. Looking at the last 3-5 years of this would give it more context than this, but I think it is fair to say that 32% is in the bottom 10% or so of RB if we did look at a larger time frame.
I think a lot of coaches will bench a RB if they gain 0 or lose yards this frequently, so not many RB would get the chance to do worse than Mack as far as this goes. They wouldn't get the opportunity to do worse than this.
It is a stat that actually reflects what myself and others saw Mack doing with a high frequency. Trying to reverse field instead of putting his head down and taking 2-3 yards when the defense plays well instead of trying to create a big play by running against the play design.
That creativity and the big plays are something you want the RB to do to a certain degree and you do not want to coach that out of the player, however the losses and zero yard gains are something coaches want to limit. The two things are somewhat related. I am not sure how you coach Mack to get rid of the negative plays, but still keep the positive ones.
I don't really know of a comprehensive way to look at this for all RB.
On PFR you can get a list of the players total plays and then could count them to find the number of times Mixon did this. PFR does at least put the plays in order, the longest yards to the fewest.
Joe Mixon
I kind of knew this anyways, but the most frequent outcome of a rushing play is a RB gaining 2 or 3 yards.
For Joe Mixon I count 39 times he gained 0 or less yards last season. This was 21.9% of Mixons runs. So about 10% less frequently than Marlon Mack.
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I have those numbers saved somewhere but I can’t find them! It’s so frustrating when trying to find something you just had a few days ago!
Tex
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed. The Colts offensive line may be in the top half of the league now if Nelson pans out as expected. Where do you think their offensive line rank compared to the other 31 teams?Chaka said:
Andrew Luck being healthy would change the whole offense, making the Colts a top 10ish offense in the league I think. That is a huge difference.
Mack or any RB should be able to thrive under such circumstances and if Mack can secure the job he should perform better than last season, even if he doesn't improve individually at all.
The stat of 32% of Macks runs going for 0 yards or less is just one of those rare occasions where the stat actually reflects what people are seeing when watching him play is the main reason I brought it up. It illustrates Macks tendency to try to reverse field and try to make something happen if he doesn't like how the play design is developing.
It shows that Mack was still doing this at the NFL level as well.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If you find it please share I think that would be interesting to see.
I am not sure how to do a search for this information on PFR. The plays for every player could be downloaded to excel and then queried by play, but I don't think I can search for plays on PFR with their season search tools, or I just don't know how to do it.
Doing a search of RB who had 90 or more rushing attempts reveals this list.
If I sort by yards per carry the RB who were worse than Mack with similar or more attempts were
Jerrick McKinnon - Starter for 49ers
Lamar Miller - Starter for Texans
Christian McCaffrey - Starter for Panthers
Matt Forte - part of RBBC old
Frank Gore - part of RBBC old
Mike Gillislee - part of RBBC might not make the team
Jamaal Williams - part of RBBC
DeMarco Murray - Retired
Kerwynn Williams - Backup
Joe Mixon - Starter for Bengals
Samajae Perine - Backup
Johnathan Stewart - Backup
Chris Ivory - Backup
Adrian Peterson - Looking for a team
Ameer Abdullah - Backup
Doug Martin - Backup maybe RBBC
I suppose we could look at the frequency of these players having runs of 0 or less yards for a comparison.
McKinnon, Mack, Miller, McCaffrey, Mixon and maybe Jamaal Williams are all RB who had below average ypc with 90 or more rushing attempts. Over half of these players are not expected to be starters in 2018. Most of these players do not have the same high percentage of runs that go for 0 or less yards, but they also are not creating the big plays that Mack did as frequently either, or they would have higher ypc than he did.
Of course 6 runs of 20+ yards out of 90 attempts would likely decrease in frequency (6%) if Mack were given more carries, like many of these other RB were. Small sample size with Macks 93 rushing attempts cuts both ways here.
It is hard for me to envision Mack having 200+ rushing attempts if he does not reduce the frequency of 0 or less yard runs.
I think there is a risk of Mack being benched or being used in a RBBC because of this, they can't have 64 plays of 0 or less yards it would be if they gave Mack 200 rushing attempts and this didn't change.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I only own Mack in one league, and I'm not super high on him by any means, but I will say is that sometimes it takes RBs like Mack a season to learn how to run in the NFL. I remember watching LeSeaon McCoy and to a lesser extent Ray Rice, dance behind the line too much, run to the outside, and try to out-juke defenders instead of exploding for the positive yards that were there.Faust said:
For Mack's sake hopefully he learns that sometimes it's better to take the three/four yards than try and make a big play.
