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"Mass Casualty Event" in Las Vegas (1 Viewer)

Max Power said:
So this guys makes stops in foreign (middle east) ports and then gets the ok to buy 30+ guns?  I know they say he wasn't associated with ISIS, but those two facts together are a little concerning. Doesn't someone monitor this?
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What's worse is that there are reports he went to a few pizza shops on that cruise.  How did we not know?

 
Fat Nick said:
No that I know of, or saw/heard in video.  That's kind of my point.  No doubt Aldean was pulled off stage, and I'm fine with that...but you can make an announcement, even a minute later so people know what's going on.  Basically, the majority of these folks didn't know they were the target until they saw somebody near them get shot.  It was basically word-of-mouth.
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Seriously?  NOBODY knew what was going on. Or where it was coming from. Or who was the target. It was total chaos. You guys make it sound like there was a very calm handful of omniscient folks sitting back in a control room able to make announcements like a flight attendant. Give me a break. 

 
dschuler said:
Wrong, he wasn’t a very good player, according to the some of the better video poker players in the game who knew him.

Paddocks no poker pro
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I don't think anyone is claiming he is a poker pro.  The claim by the 'real' poker player that winning at video poker takes a lot of luck is kind of ignorant.  There is a reason it is one of the top choices by advantage players.  It can be manipulated with casino incentives to be a +ev game.

 
Short Corner said:
I don't think anyone is claiming he is a poker pro.  The claim by the 'real' poker player that winning at video poker takes a lot of luck is kind of ignorant.  There is a reason it is one of the top choices by advantage players.  It can be manipulated with casino incentives to be a +ev game.
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How can you supposedly make millions of dollars methodically exploiting machines and not be a pro? 

Do you have to make a billion dollars to be a pro?  What’s your cutoff?

 
Those video poker machines with the high payouts are low stakes. It is a grind and I dount anyone could play perfect enough anf long enough to bank 5 million on those machines

 
comfortably numb said:
According to vegasinsider.com 1.3M in a calendar year is the pro status marker line
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Exactly.  So he makes millions of dollars per year allegedly playing a game that can only be beaten by grinding it out day after day, and the video poker sharks claim he’s not a great player.  Add to that the fact he takes several cruises per year and travels frequently and none of it seems to add up.  It’s not even remotely possible to make that much money at video poker unless you are a daily grinder and one of the very best in the world, whereas it was more of a hobby to the people who knew him. 

 
dschuler said:
Exactly.  So he makes millions of dollars per year allegedly playing a game that can only be beaten by grinding it out day after day, and the video poker sharks claim he’s not a great player.  Add to that the fact he takes several cruises per year and travels frequently and none of it seems to add up.  It’s not even remotely possible to make that much money at video poker unless you are a daily grinder and one of the very best in the world, whereas it was more of a hobby to the people who knew him. 
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Yep!

I'm kinda drunk right now and made all that other stuff up though.

 
the moops said:
Those video poker machines with the high payouts are low stakes. It is a grind and I dount anyone could play perfect enough anf long enough to bank 5 million on those machines
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It's not that difficult to play perfect.  Having sufficient BR and finding the right machines are more important.  You have to find the progressives that haven't been hit in a while.

 
Short Corner said:
the moops said:
Those video poker machines with the high payouts are low stakes. It is a grind and I dount anyone could play perfect enough anf long enough to bank 5 million on those machines
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It's not that difficult to play perfect.  Having sufficient BR and finding the right machines are more important.  You have to find the progressives that haven't been hit in a while.
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From the NYT article I just posted:
 

Playing a slot machine can be mindless and is usually a guaranteed win for the casino. That is not what Mr. Paddock played. His game, video poker, requires some skill. Players have to know the history of a particular machine. They can do that by reading a pay table, which tells them what each possible winning hand pays out.

One of the ways that video poker players get an advantage is to play casino promotions, which essentially pay out bonuses to winners, said Richard Munchkin, author of “Gambling Wizards: Conversations With the World’s Greatest Gamblers.” A gambler like Mr. Paddock will often “lock” a machine, meaning he or she monopolizes it and makes sure no one else uses it during a gambling session.

For one casino promotion, Mr. Paddock showed up two hours early, locked two machines and played them for 14 hours straight, Mr. Munchkin said, based on information he had compiled from other gamblers who were there at the time. The promotion lasted 12 hours, he said, “but he wanted to play for two hours before anybody got those machines. He knew they were the best machines based on pay tables.”

Mr. Paddock “knew the house advantage down to a tenth of a percent,” he said.
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I read a couple articles on his gambling habits, sounded like the dude was an automaton. Doug's article quote substantiates that. He had a system and knew how to exploit the casinos (as much as you can i suppose). He also enjoyed the perks of being a high roller so it was like he was partying/vacationing on the casinos dime while scratching out a living $25 a hand. He was a numbers guy and a heavy drinker so you could see how this lifestyle would appeal to him.

Still doesnt explain why he went bat#### crazy and shot up a concert.

 
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Hit our area hard. 31 year old mother of 3 who was a server at Mastro's steakhouse down the street from us, 50 year old who's brother coached girls softball against my daughters, school teacher a few miles from here, etc. So sad

 
I attended the Michigan-Michigan State game yesterday.  Been to a hundred Michigan games in my life and it never ceases to amaze me the mass of people walking around the stadium.

First of all there were about 10 times more police than I ever remembered seeing.  Second  around the stadium were SWAT officers in full combat gear carrying machine guns in plain sight.  I saw at least 10 of them and there had to be more.  Reminded me of being in Playa Del Carmen where the police stand in the street heavily armed.

I guess this is the way it will be from here on.

 
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It is beyond strange that they haven't at least released a motive, only hours away from it being a week since. 

 
jplvr said:
It is beyond strange that they haven't at least released a motive, only hours away from it being a week since. 
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just two days ago they announced a marketing blitz in Vegas asking for help from anyone who might have info.   It appears they are coming up empty

 
jplvr said:
It is beyond strange that they haven't at least released a motive, only hours away from it being a week since. 
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Did they ever find a motive for the Sandy Hook shooting? There was speculation, but I don't recall a specific one.

 
Pyschopath. Been battling demons a long time. Recently prescribed Valium. Obviously planned it out. It's either an Isis op or he just lost his ####. 

 
My guess is that the $5 million figure is from multiple types of gambling....not just video poker. Even if you had a slight edge, that's a pretty ridiculous amount of money to win solely from video poker.

 
Video of the brother is tough.  It's hard to discern how much of that is "crazy" and how much of that is watching him cope with the realization of what his brother was capable of and did right there on camera.  Just a bad situation all around....not a chance I'd be talking to anyone but my wife and a therapist at this point.

 
eoMMan said:
My guess is that the $5 million figure is from multiple types of gambling....not just video poker. Even if you had a slight edge, that's a pretty ridiculous amount of money to win solely from video poker.
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I think people are confused about the numbers. He played video poker for high stakes comps, trying to break even on the machine. He even said he went to Vegas less since 2007 because the casinos got tighter on their comps after the economic collapse. The casinos only care(d) about how much money you fed into the machine, so to them, a guy who can play $1 mil a day is a high roller, even if he just breaks even. 

As an accountant, all of those flagged transactions were good for him, especially st VP where everything is tracked. I'm guessing comps aren't even taxable, but that part is a total guess on my part.  

 
jplvr said:
I think people are confused about the numbers. He played video poker for high stakes comps, trying to break even on the machine. He even said he went to Vegas less since 2007 because the casinos got tighter on their comps after the economic collapse. The casinos only care(d) about how much money you fed into the machine, so to them, a guy who can play $1 mil a day is a high roller, even if he just breaks even. 

As an accountant, all of those flagged transactions were good for him, especially st VP where everything is tracked. I'm guessing comps aren't even taxable, but that part is a total guess on my part.  
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Taxable from whose end?  I think comps are not able to be written off by casinos either and they dont 1099 you for them or anything.  

 
1 week and counting and we have yet to see one picture/video of this guy ever setting foot in a casino, but we know he basically spent half his time and made a living by gambling in casinos? 

Hate to say it, but I'm starting to question things.  :tinfoilhat:  

 
culdeus said:
Taxable from whose end?  I think comps are not able to be written off by casinos either and they dont 1099 you for them or anything.  
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So... are you agreeing or disagreeing?  My only point was that I'd guess this guy, an accountant, wasn't getting taxed for comps.

 
jb1020 said:
1 week and counting and we have yet to see one picture/video of this guy ever setting foot in a casino, but we know he basically spent half his time and made a living by gambling in casinos? 

Hate to say it, but I'm starting to question things.  :tinfoilhat:  
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You want to watch videos of this guy playing video poker for 12 hours at a time?  

 
jplvr said:
So... are you agreeing or disagreeing?  My only point was that I'd guess this guy, an accountant, wasn't getting taxed for comps.
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Right, but the way you wrote that it wasn't clear whom you thought would be taxable.  No, casinos do not 1099 you for comps.

 
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