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NFL Betting - (more focused than general thread) (1 Viewer)

Tonight's games are not very exciting and I am a lifelong Bronco fan. I am seeing the under in the Bronco game--I see both teams just slogging it away--especially considering Denver will probably be without two of its WRs (both game time decisions). I need to find a prop bet for the number of punts and see what that looks like--because I would bet the over. I would take Ten and the points because I bet Denver struggles to score more than 10-13 points.  The only money I put down tonight was Melvin Gordon to score because I bet this is an ugly game, but I won't bet on the other team against my Broncos. 

 
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Courtjester said:
Tonight's games are not very exciting and I am a lifelong Bronco fan. I am seeing the under in the Bronco game--I see both teams just slogging it away--especially considering Denver will probably be without two of its WRs (both game time decisions). I need to find a prop bet for the number of punts and see what that looks like--because I would bet the over. I would take Ten and the points because I bet Denver struggles to score more than 10-13 points.  The only money I put down tonight was Melvin Gordon to score because I bet this is an ugly game, but I won't bet on the other team against my Broncos. 
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Tenn is -3.  

I don't understand the Gordon signing, Lindsey runs hard.  

 
Pittsburgh -6 seems too easy to me. And when I see something that seems too easy  I usually play it and lose
 

Does anyone like NYG?

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Why? What if the number is good for all four of them?
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Good point, but I'm not shopping or whatever it's called.  I missed all the previous games but would still like some year-long action.  A couple grand on two teams to follow is just about right for me.  Spreading it out to 4 makes each team a little less interesting.

Of those remaining, what are your top two?

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Good point, but I'm not shopping or whatever it's called.  I missed all the previous games but would still like some year-long action.  A couple grand on two teams to follow is just about right for me.  Spreading it out to 4 makes each team a little less interesting.

Of those remaining, what are your top two?
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Denver under 7.5 if you can get it should be solid without Von Miller.  Don't know what the Giants over is, but that is a pretty soft division.  Pitt is too reliant on the QB staying healthy, under if anything.  Tenn, slight lean to over, weak division also.

 
FairWarning said:
Denver under 7.5 if you can get it should be solid without Von Miller.  Don't know what the Giants over is, but that is a pretty soft division.  Pitt is too reliant on the QB staying healthy, under if anything.  Tenn, slight lean to over, weak division also.
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Denver can be had at 7.5 no problem, but the under has been hit hard obviously and I'm not laying -145.  I read it opened at 8 in the spring, btw.

Giants are 6.5 -155 for the Under.  Again, not laying that kind of juice.  It's either an over bet, which is where I'm leaning, or nothing.

Tenn I have no clue on, I don't know what to think of Tanneyhill.

 
A  trend for tonight's Steelers game: When the Steelers are favorites by 3+ points under Mike Tomlin the UNDER has hit 20 of the last 21 times. :shrug:  

 The Steelers are 1-19-1 O/U as an away favorite of 3 or more.

 
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Rodrigo Duterte said:
Broncos O 7 1/2 +125

Giants 0 6.5 +135
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Rodrigo Duterte said:
Denver can be had at 7.5 no problem, but the under has been hit hard obviously and I'm not laying -145.  

Giants are 6.5 -155 for the Under.  Again, not laying that kind of juice. 
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Mildly pedantic but it kinda irks me when people talk about a lot of juice on favorites.  +125/-145 or +135/-155 on those futures isn't a lot of juice, that's actually a pretty good spread on markets like those.  There's less vig there than you'd find on a typical -110 NFL spread.  It's just a reflection of what the market makes those probabilities out to be; whether or not it's a good price depends on what you think the probabilities are.  

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Mildly pedantic but it kinda irks me when people talk about a lot of juice on favorites.  +125/-145 or +135/-155 on those futures isn't a lot of juice, that's actually a pretty good spread on markets like those.  There's less vig there than you'd find on a typical -110 NFL spread.  It's just a reflection of what the market makes those probabilities out to be; whether or not it's a good price depends on what you think the probabilities are.  
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I hear ya, but that's not what I meant.  I realize those spreads are fine.  Semantics I guess, but what I mean is that I'd rather not lay/pay a premium (better word?), it's not about the spread.  Especially on a team like Pitt who takes a lot of public money.

I laid off Pitt altogether.  Took the Giants over 6.5 +135.

Still deciding on the last two teams.

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Good point, but I'm not shopping or whatever it's called.  I missed all the previous games but would still like some year-long action.  A couple grand on two teams to follow is just about right for me.  Spreading it out to 4 makes each team a little less interesting.

Of those remaining, what are your top two?
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I'm the wrong person to ask.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
If I was betting the main markets tonight I like under 54.5.  
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FairWarning said:
No preseason would be the biggest reason for me to play under.  No one will be sharp for a couple weeks or so.  Heck a 34-20 game is high scoring, but a loser.

Played Tenn -2-120 at Denver Monday night.  Think this game goes to -3.  Denver has lost Von Miller for the season, and now Courtland Sutton hurt his shoulder.  
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whoa.

i won KC + 101, so I am also pretty sharp

 
Cincinnati +6

This line opened at 7.5.  I think Burrow showed poise in his first game and doesn't look like your typical rookie QB. I'm going against the Browns again this week. They are still a mess. In a battle for Ohio, I think this will be a fairly close game. 

 
YTD 2-1

Week 2

Buffalo -5.5. Either Miami wins this outright or Buffalo will win and cover. Not quite sure how Miami wins this outright.

SF -7. San Fran coming off a loss and playing the Jets this week, anything less than a double digit spread and the Niners is the pick. Granted the Niners are travelling cross country for this game but they are not travelling to Mars. 

Sea -4. Still not sold on New England despite their week 1 win. Cam can't score every New England touchdown and Seattle looks like the offense is finally being opened up this year.

NYG +6. Figure the Bears are getting too much credit for their week 1 win here as not much separates these two teams.

GB -6. Packers looked awfully good last week against Minnesota and the Lions are no better.

 
brianj74 said:
YTD 2-1

Week 2

Buffalo -5.5. Either Miami wins this outright or Buffalo will win and cover. Not quite sure how Miami wins this outright.

SF -7. San Fran coming off a loss and playing the Jets this week, anything less than a double digit spread and the Niners is the pick. Granted the Niners are travelling cross country for this game but they are not travelling to Mars. 

Sea -4. Still not sold on New England despite their week 1 win. Cam can't score every New England touchdown and Seattle looks like the offense is finally being opened up this year.

NYG +6. Figure the Bears are getting too much credit for their week 1 win here as not much separates these two teams.

GB -6. Packers looked awfully good last week against Minnesota and the Lions are no better.
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My model actually likes the Jets +7 this week against SF, and would love it if it somehow got to double digits (without major injury news or something).  Also leans towards NE +4 being the pick.  No strong opinion on the other three you listed here. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
What model is that? Curious as that looks like an easy win to this Jets' fan. I know when things look "easy" they generally are not though.
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Funny story, it's actually a pretty simple model I built years ago and had mostly forgotten about. Last year I had some entries in various handicapping pools that popped up in legal sportsbooks, and dusted off the model to make the picks for one of them so I wasn't just making the same picks everywhere. I had (and still have) no illusions that this is a profitable model or anything, but I just picked whatever it spit out and ended up winning the whole contest for a nice payday. 

This early in the season it's still largely weighting data from last year and I haven't done any work to adjust for all the offseason moves so I have even less confidence in it now than I normally would. I manually fudged the numbers a bit to account for major personnel changes but otherwise just ran it as normal with week 1 and prior years data as the inputs. I'm not really an NFL capper and don't typically bet sides but I enjoy participating in the discussion.  

In general I'm of the opinion that if you think a non-opening NFL spread is off by 3+ points, you're most likely wrong and the market is right.  Yeah the 49ers were just in the Super Bowl and the Jets are the Jets but the market thinks it's about a TD - if you gave me NYJ +10 or whatever I'd blindly bet that every single time.  

 
eoMMan said:
Cincinnati +6

This line opened at 7.5.  I think Burrow showed poise in his first game and doesn't look like your typical rookie QB. I'm going against the Browns again this week. They are still a mess. In a battle for Ohio, I think this will be a fairly close game. 
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I heard a stat on the radio today that the Browns have had 7 straight nationally televised prime time games that have landed on the under side of the total.  I am being tempted to bet the under on the 45 pt total, but then I remember how bad the defenses are... 

 
I think Cleveland is better than they looked vs Baltimore. Running game especially, like Chubb and Hunt to both pile up rushing yards

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
In general I'm of the opinion that if you think a non-opening NFL spread is off by 3+ points, you're most likely wrong and the market is right. 
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I've been seriously handicapping boxing this year, and I run into the same thing, although boxing is by no means as tough to beat as the NFL so there are some pretty bad prices (Bet365 getting a new trader has tightened the opening price considerably, unfortunately). There are McGregor/Mayweather-eqsue differences pretty regularly where the market's off 15-20% from where I make it.

Usually i try and take a step back and ask myself to try and figure out what I don't know. What are unknown variables, what might I be missing, etc. It's also a sport where there's a massive amount of uncertainty (even more than a pre-seasonless NFL), so I will usually temper my number, giving credit to the line and the fact that the linemaker (and other good bettors) are seeing a largely-subjective market differently than I am. Occasionally i just whiff badly. Most times I'm on the right side, but not by as much as I thought, and what I project to be an easy win turns into a draw (sometimes with a last-second knockdown ://///) or a win I have to sweat.

Just constantly tell yourself that you're a moron at worst, half-a-moron at best. Works for me.

 
I won a few bucks on Cle Monday night. Signed up for a sportsbook and have a few bets in, two with offers of free and boost odds....I used to do well when I played fantasy football due to the research and up to date info...If one of my freebies come in playing with house money for a while. Biggie won't know until about Oct 29 or thereabouts...lol. Green Bay looked good to me but haven't put any down yet.

. 

 
brianj74 said:
YTD 2-1

Week 2

Buffalo -5.5. Either Miami wins this outright or Buffalo will win and cover. Not quite sure how Miami wins this outright.

SF -7. San Fran coming off a loss and playing the Jets this week, anything less than a double digit spread and the Niners is the pick. Granted the Niners are travelling cross country for this game but they are not travelling to Mars. 

Sea -4. Still not sold on New England despite their week 1 win. Cam can't score every New England touchdown and Seattle looks like the offense is finally being opened up this year.

NYG +6. Figure the Bears are getting too much credit for their week 1 win here as not much separates these two teams.

GB -6. Packers looked awfully good last week against Minnesota and the Lions are no better.
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:goodposting:  

 
YTD: 6-2

Week 3

Rams +2.5. Consecutive road games is tough for the Rams but the Bills have not played a legit offense yet (Jets and Dolphins).  Should be a close game but will take the dog here.

NE -6. Tough road game here for the Raiders (short week, flying cross country and playing a NE team coming off a loss). 

Pittsburgh -4. Houston opens the season versus KC, Baltimore and now Pittsburgh. Steelers did not look great versus the Broncos last week but they right the ship this week.

TB-6. Tampa looked much better in week 2 than in week 1 and will look even better in week 3 with a win over Denver.

Dal +5. Not much separates these two teams (Dallas and Seattle).  Will take the dog in a shootout.

GB+3. Saints have not looked right all year. Michael Thomas is missing and Drew Brees seemingly cannot throw a pass downfield anymore. 

 
brianj74 said:
YTD: 6-2

Week 3

Rams +2.5. Consecutive road games is tough for the Rams but the Bills have not played a legit offense yet (Jets and Dolphins).  Should be a close game but will take the dog here.

NE -6. Tough road game here for the Raiders (short week, flying cross country and playing a NE team coming off a loss). 

Pittsburgh -4. Houston opens the season versus KC, Baltimore and now Pittsburgh. Steelers did not look great versus the Broncos last week but they right the ship this week.

TB-6. Tampa looked much better in week 2 than in week 1 and will look even better in week 3 with a win over Denver.

Dal +5. Not much separates these two teams (Dallas and Seattle).  Will take the dog in a shootout.

GB+3. Saints have not looked right all year. Michael Thomas is missing and Drew Brees seemingly cannot throw a pass downfield anymore. 
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I like all of these. :thumbup:

One thing I'm really interested in this year is the value of home field advantage.  I don't have a great idea yet how much limited/no fans in attendance makes a difference on what the lines should be (I suspect not much, but I don't really have a solid basis for that). 

 
How do you guys feel about Atlanta (-3) at home vs. Chicago. I can't think that these teams are as bad and good as their records indicate. Atlanta has a 13-point loss and a 1-point loss and is a must-win game at home for them. Should be quite motivated. Am I missing something from the Bears side here? Are they actually decent? Or is Atlanta's defense really that bad?

 
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Harris said:
How do you guys feel about Atlanta (-3) at home vs. Chicago. I can't think that these teams are as bad and good as their records indicate. Atlanta has a 3-point loss and a 1-point loss and is a must-win game at home for them. Should be quite motivated. Am I missing something from the Bears side here? Are they actually decent? Or is Atlanta's defense really that bad?
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The line confused me as well so I avoided it lol. I thought for sure it should be closer to -6 because their offense is so much better than Chicago's and the Bears are dealing with some injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I think Atlanta cruises with or without Julio though. 

 
Harris said:
How do you guys feel about Atlanta (-3) at home vs. Chicago. I can't think that these teams are as bad and good as their records indicate. Atlanta has a 3-point loss and a 1-point loss and is a must-win game at home for them. Should be quite motivated. Am I missing something from the Bears side here? Are they actually decent? Or is Atlanta's defense really that bad?
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Atlanta lost by 13 in week 1, not 3.  But yeah, this is one where the raw numbers might be a little wonky because the Falcons have faced two good offenses and the Bears have benefitted from playing two bad ones.  If I had to pick I'd take ATL -3.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Atlanta lost by 13 in week 1, not 3.  But yeah, this is one where the raw numbers might be a little wonky because the Falcons have faced two good offenses and the Bears have benefitted from playing two bad ones.  If I had to pick I'd take ATL -3.
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Oh thanks added the 1- back in there. If this was in Chicago I'd say maybe it makes more sense to me but Atlanta at home too. I have to imagine this line moves to -4 or -5 prior to kickoff. Chicago has shown me nothing so far.

 
Harris said:
Oh thanks added the 1- back in there. If this was in Chicago I'd say maybe it makes more sense to me but Atlanta at home too. I have to imagine this line moves to -4 or -5 prior to kickoff. Chicago has shown me nothing so far.
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Oh. So the Falcons are actually terrible.

 
 I had the Bears moneyline...forgot I had place a 2nd bet other than my free bet offer. I hope I don't give 40% away on KC moneyline.

 
brianj74 said:
YTD: 6-2

Week 3

Rams +2.5. Consecutive road games is tough for the Rams but the Bills have not played a legit offense yet (Jets and Dolphins).  Should be a close game but will take the dog here.

NE -6. Tough road game here for the Raiders (short week, flying cross country and playing a NE team coming off a loss). 

Pittsburgh -4. Houston opens the season versus KC, Baltimore and now Pittsburgh. Steelers did not look great versus the Broncos last week but they right the ship this week.

TB-6. Tampa looked much better in week 2 than in week 1 and will look even better in week 3 with a win over Denver.

Dal +5. Not much separates these two teams (Dallas and Seattle).  Will take the dog in a shootout.

GB+3. Saints have not looked right all year. Michael Thomas is missing and Drew Brees seemingly cannot throw a pass downfield anymore. 
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Nice work! 👍🏽 

 
any thoughts on Broncos - Jets tonight? Jets are -1 ?? How can the Jets be favored over anyone. It feels like they are tanking on purpose to get Gase fired. 

Also real low total sitting at 41. Still seems like a lot for these teams.

 
YTD: 10-4

Week 4

Tampa -7. The Bucs seem to be rolling now and the the Chargers QB Justin Herbert came back to earth last week and he gets a top defense this week. 

Seattle -7. Will not bet against Seattle until proven otherwise and Miami has nothing that makes me worried (I know, I bet against Seattle last week).

Dallas -5.5. If the Browns running game piles up huge numbers here, Dallas could be in trouble. I figure Dallas will do enough here to cover this modest line.

Indy -2.5.  The Bears are the worst 3-0 team in the league. What Nick Foles shows up this week is anyone's guess.

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
any thoughts on Broncos - Jets tonight? Jets are -1 ?? How can the Jets be favored over anyone. It feels like they are tanking on purpose to get Gase fired. 

Also real low total sitting at 41. Still seems like a lot for these teams.
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When it was pick, I seven point teased Jets/Under.  Have a hard time seeing Brett Rypien beating any nfl team by 7.

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
Also real low total sitting at 41. Still seems like a lot for these teams.
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No opinion on the spread but yeah I like the under there.  I have it at about 38, best NFL capper I know personally makes it 39, and books are gonna shade it a bit higher because most of the money will be on the over regardless.    

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
No opinion on the spread but yeah I like the under there.  I have it at about 38, best NFL capper I know personally makes it 39, and books are gonna shade it a bit higher because most of the money will be on the over regardless.    
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41 at DK right now

Are we expecting it to go up?

 
Haven't bet much in a couple years, but under 57 on the packers/Falcons game was just too off to pass on for me.  Packers top 2 WRs out and Atlantas entire WR group is hampered.  

The total probably should have been like 45.  Let's hope it holds.

 
Headed to Vegas next weekend so interested in any leans. At first glance I like:

Cincy +13 vs Balt (Seems high)

AZ -6.5 vs Jets (Because, the Jets)

Jax +6.5 vs Hou (seems like a tight game)

Miami +8 vs SF (walking wounded)

 
3 hour lunch said:
Headed to Vegas next weekend so interested in any leans. At first glance I like:

Cincy +13 vs Balt (Seems high)

AZ -6.5 vs Jets (Because, the Jets)

Jax +6.5 vs Hou (seems like a tight game)

Miami +8 vs SF (walking wounded)
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Wong teaser for ya, Rams and Browns.  

Rams would be -1.5 at Washington, and the Browns would be +8.5 against the Colts

 
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brianj74 said:
YTD: 10-4

Week 4

Tampa -7. The Bucs seem to be rolling now and the the Chargers QB Justin Herbert came back to earth last week and he gets a top defense this week. 

Seattle -7. Will not bet against Seattle until proven otherwise and Miami has nothing that makes me worried (I know, I bet against Seattle last week).

Dallas -5.5. If the Browns running game piles up huge numbers here, Dallas could be in trouble. I figure Dallas will do enough here to cover this modest line.

Indy -2.5.  The Bears are the worst 3-0 team in the league. What Nick Foles shows up this week is anyone's guess.
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2-1-1 for 12-6-1

@TripItUp Brian is giving you more than you could have hoped for.

 
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