*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (2 Viewers)

[Coeur de Lion]

But the two way threats at QB are not producing enough rushing yards ATM. They are producing enough to extend the plateau of QB1s, but not enough to increase the number of elite QB. That was really only 2011-2012. We already reverted back to the mean, here. If Kaep, Wilson, RG3, JFootball can hit McNabb-like passing stats of about 3800 and still get 500 on the ground, then yes we will have a lot of elite QBs but that hasn't happened yet.

And look at what happened with Cam. He was getting the 3800+ and all the rushing, but the team decided in order to win, let's be more conservative, and his passing went down. His eliteness comes down to being bulletproof in short yardage rushing.

If you think Foles is Peyton you should probably draft him in the first of a startup. A decade of Peyton was probably 700 VBD, which is equivalent to a mid WR1 without the risk or variability year to year. Money in the bank.

I am a big proponent of investing in QB in dynasty, but the uniqueness of RG3 (healthy), RW (defense), CK (defense), and NF's (depends on coach) situation puts some doubt in my strategy. In turn I'm just super into getting Luck ATM.

Good insight -- and I agree with 99% of it. I'm definitely not ready to call any of this young crop Peyton Manning 2.0 -- not even Luck as of now. I'm 100% sold on Luck's talent, but it also takes a passing system and good weapons to put up elite QB1 numbers -- and that's way harder to project moving forward, IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

But the two way threats at QB are not producing enough rushing yards ATM. They are producing enough to extend the plateau of QB1s, but not enough to increase the number of elite QB. That was really only 2011-2012.

2012-2013, too (PPG). 2 of the 3 NFL seasons since Newton was drafted, and by two different players.

 

[maxhyde]

14 Team PPR (1.5 for TEs) with devy players, so 1sts are devalued

Team A gave up:

Foles, Nick PHI QB

Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB

Jones, Jacoby BAL WR

Team B gave up:

Palmer, Carson ARI QB

Britt, Kenny TEN WR

Robinson, Adrien NYG TE

Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.13

Foles has been going cheap in this thread.

Just not much of a market for QBs in general in start 1 leagues. The position is too deep to pay fair prices for anyone, IMO. I like Foles, but why pay for him when guys like Cutler, Rivers, Roethlisberger can be had basically for free?

Agreed.

 

[thriftyrocker]

But the two way threats at QB are not producing enough rushing yards ATM. They are producing enough to extend the plateau of QB1s, but not enough to increase the number of elite QB. That was really only 2011-2012.

2012-2013, too (PPG). 2 of the 3 NFL seasons since Newton was drafted, and by two different players.

Yeah I meant both the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Not the 2011 season extending into the playoffs.

 

[solorca]

Gave - Colston/Marvin Jones

Received - Bowe/Moreno

 

[Jrodicus]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

 

[cstu]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

 

[maxhyde]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

...and maybe one of Steater and Miller turn out.

I will take 2.01 and the players

 

[cstu]

But the two way threats at QB are not producing enough rushing yards ATM. They are producing enough to extend the plateau of QB1s, but not enough to increase the number of elite QB. That was really only 2011-2012. We already reverted back to the mean, here. If Kaep, Wilson, RG3, JFootball can hit McNabb-like passing stats of about 3800 and still get 500 on the ground, then yes we will have a lot of elite QBs but that hasn't happened yet.

And look at what happened with Cam. He was getting the 3800+ and all the rushing, but the team decided in order to win, let's be more conservative, and his passing went down. His eliteness comes down to being bulletproof in short yardage rushing.

If you think Foles is Peyton you should probably draft him in the first of a startup. A decade of Peyton was probably 700 VBD, which is equivalent to a mid WR1 without the risk or variability year to year. Money in the bank.

I am a big proponent of investing in QB in dynasty, but the uniqueness of RG3 (healthy), RW (defense), CK (defense), and NF's (depends on coach) situation puts some doubt in my strategy. In turn I'm just super into getting Luck ATM.

Good insight -- and I agree with 99% of it. I'm definitely not ready to call any of this young crop Peyton Manning 2.0 -- not even Luck as of now. I'm 100% sold on Luck's talent, but it also takes a passing system and good weapons to put up elite QB1 numbers -- and that's way harder to project moving forward, IMO.

Luck is unfortunately becoming Aikman-like. I believe he's got a good chance to be a HOF'er but I'm not convinced his fantasy value with be as high as his NFL value.

 

[Concept Coop]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats. Of course, health is the major concern. But I'll take a risky, young RB1 over those spare parts without hesitation.

 

[Concept Coop]

Luck is unfortunately becoming Aikman-like. I believe he's got a good chance to be a HOF'er but I'm not convinced his fantasy value with be as high as his NFL value.

I think there is an argument that Wilson is becoming Aikman like, but not Luck. The Colts have thrown the ball plenty and are likely to continue. Luck just needs weapons.

 

[maxhyde]

Gave - Colston/Marvin Jones

Received - Bowe/Moreno

Bowe and Moreno

 

[thriftyrocker]

Luck is unfortunately becoming Aikman-like. I believe he's got a good chance to be a HOF'er but I'm not convinced his fantasy value with be as high as his NFL value.

Aikman only had 2 QB1 years in his career. Luck has 2 QB1 years in his first 2 years.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats.

I doubt his target level from 2013 is sustainable over a bigger sample size -- RB20 I can see, maybe a bit higher, but even a RB like Sproles hasn't been able to see targets like Vereen had last year with any consistency. And it's hard to see NE standing completely pat at the skill positions through both FA and the draft.

 

[maxhyde]

Luck is unfortunately becoming Aikman-like. I believe he's got a good chance to be a HOF'er but I'm not convinced his fantasy value with be as high as his NFL value.

I think there is an argument that Wilson is becoming Aikman like, but not Luck. The Colts have thrown the ball plenty and are likely to continue. Luck just needs weapons.

Hard to say Luck is becoming Aikman-like after 2 seasons.

I would like to see him have more than Reggie Wayne as a solid WR option...Hilton is too hit and miss

 

[EBF]

You'll have to unpack that Luck-Aikman comparison for me. Aikman played on great teams surrounded by Pro Bowl talent. He was a game manager who threw the ball more than 500 times in a season exactly once in his NFL career (518 attempts in 1997). Luck has played on crap teams where he's had to carry the whole offense on his back. He had 627 pass attempts as a rookie and 570 last season. The only way he's like Aikman is career YPA, but then he's still developing, he doesn't play with the same caliber of OL/WR/TE/RB, and he doesn't have the luxury of picking his spots as a passer.

Wilson is more comparable to Aikman in terms of supporting cast, but he's averaged 7.9 and 8.2 YPA through two seasons. Both as good or better than the best season of Aikman's 12 year career. That's with very pedestrian weapons at WR/TE. I think he'll continue to be a mediocre FF option as long as Seattle continues to be a run-first offense, but at least he's shown glimpses of being a guy who could be a prolific passer.

 

[Concept Coop]

I doubt his target level from 2013 is sustainable over a bigger sample size -- RB20 I can see, maybe a bit higher, but even a RB like Sproles hasn't been able to see targets like Vereen had last year with any consistency. And it's hard to see NE standing completely pat at the skill positions through both FA and the draft.

The Patriots have done it for years now. It was just split between Vereen/Woodhead/Bolden.

His 2013 reception rate was 94/16. I'm only counting on 70-80/16, while on the field. I just expect his rushing attempts to rise and offset that dip.

 

[maxhyde]

You'll have to unpack that Luck-Aikman comparison for me. Aikman played on great teams surrounded by Pro Bowl talent. He was a game manager who threw the ball more than 500 times in a season exactly once in his NFL career (518 attempts in 1997). Luck has played on crap teams where he's had to carry the whole offense on his back. He had 627 pass attempts as a rookie and 570 last season. The only way he's like Aikman is career YPA, but then he's still developing, he doesn't play with the same caliber of OL/WR/TE/RB, and he doesn't have the luxury of picking his spots as a passer.

Wilson is more comparable to Aikman in terms of supporting cast, but he's averaged 7.9 and 8.2 YPA through two seasons. Both as good or better than the best season of Aikman's 12 year career. That's with very pedestrian weapons at WR/TE. I think he'll continue to be a mediocre FF option as long as Seattle continues to be a run-first offense, but at least he's shown glimpses of being a guy who could be a prolific passer.

I think the evolution of the passing game has altered what is a top QB today. Aikman was a game manager? Or they could win by handing to arguably the greatest RB in the game. Hard to say what any QB could have been or would be if their circumstances were different but they aren't.

Anyway I agree with the main point. no comparing Luck and Aikman, different era and different types of offenses dominate the league. Luck is for real in my opinion. Guy has poise, smarts and athleticism along with a great arm. He has done more with less than I think most expected and it stands to reason as the Colts build around him he will progress as well.

 

[maxhyde]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats. Of course, health is the major concern. But I'll take a risky, young RB1 over those spare parts without hesitation.

So simply out of curiousity in terms of draft pick compensation where is Vereen for you then? 1.06?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Luck shouldn't be compared to Aikman as a FF QB, I agree. My personal question on him revolves around whether he'll be a mid QB1 vs a true difference making QB1 for the next decade plus. Obviously that has lots of value either way. But I'm less certain that I want to pay significantly for the tail of the low side of that production (if that's what happens) when I can probably get reasonably close to the same with a series of cheap patches.

 

[ghostguy123]

If thats all you can get for Foles, just keep him

 

[solorca]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats. Of course, health is the major concern. But I'll take a risky, young RB1 over those spare parts without hesitation.

So simply out of curiousity in terms of draft pick compensation where is Vereen for you then? 1.06?

Just to throw in the current ADP argument, Vereen is going behind Watkins and in the same range as Evans. So he'd be at the 1.03 in terms of pure ADP.

Personally, I'd let him go for the 1.06 or higher, most likely.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Worth mentioning that Foles faced probably the weakest pass defense SOS of any QB in NFL history last year. By a fair bit too. It looks tougher on paper this year, but still not bad.

I probably spent more time trying to figure Foles out this year than any player I've ever looked at, basically trying to decide whether to keep him or move him.

At the end of the day it could go two ways IMO...

Either he's Big Ben 2.0 (minus all the early-career injuries, ####faced-in-Pittsburgh-bars stupidity, and rapey stuff), namely an above-average big-guy QB who moves around a bit and takes a lot of sacks in exchange for making plays, or he's a later-drafted QB that landed in an up-and-coming offensive dynasty that suits him to a T and he spends the coming decade as a high-end QB1 -- like Tom Brady.

Given the general lack of markets for QBs I decided to hold and hope for the latter. But given the price I paid I'd be more than happy with Roethlisberger+.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Given the general lack of markets for QBs I decided to hold and hope for the latter. But given the price I paid I'd be more than happy with Roethlisberger+.

Good analysis. To continue on those thoughts, though, we called Freeman a young Big Ben a couple years ago. I think Ben and Freeman succeed a lot due to grit that Foles doesn't have. Foles broke out because he was able to understand the offense and make the reads. He is a cerebral player like Brady. That doesn't mean he is as good as Brady, but he's a classroom QB, not a sandlot QB. This kind of underscores that yeah, you can give him an offense and some time, and he'll do alright for you. His NFL career is not limited by Chip. But whether he is any more married to the Chip "dynasty" fledgling than ASmith was to Harbaugh is very much TBD.

 

[Concept Coop]

So simply out of curiousity in terms of draft pick compensation where is Vereen for you then? 1.06?

A lot depends on the league and team. Right now, I think there will be 3-4 RBs in this class that I value as much, or more than Vereen. In most standard leagues, that would be in the 1.05-1.08 range. Anything higher than 1.05 is a no-brainer; anything lower than 1.08 is a no-brainer for the opposite reason.

Tl;dr: Yes. Rgiht around 1.05-1.07.

 

[EBF]

Foles is a tough dude. Got lit up at Arizona and never seemed fazed by it. He's not as evasive in the pocket as Roethlisberger, but he's certainly "gritty" enough.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Foles is a tough dude. Got lit up at Arizona and never seemed fazed by it. He's not as evasive in the pocket as Roethlisberger, but he's certainly "gritty" enough.

Eli and Brady get up from hits too, but that's not what I'm talking about. I am talking about what makes them successful. Eli and Brady are not cowboys. Foles is not on the Favre spectrum he is on the Brady spectrum.

 

[cstu]

Luck shouldn't be compared to Aikman as a FF QB, I agree. My personal question on him revolves around whether he'll be a mid QB1 vs a true difference making QB1 for the next decade plus. Obviously that has lots of value either way. But I'm less certain that I want to pay significantly for the tail of the low side of that production (if that's what happens) when I can probably get reasonably close to the same with a series of cheap patches.

Aikman is my prototype for a great QB who doesn't put up great numbers. Luck could be the #1 QB someday but I feel like he's limited by the offense.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't know how anyone could watch the Chiefs/Colts playoff game and not see Luck doing that every week once he is promoted to QB/OC.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't know how anyone could watch the Chiefs/Colts playoff game and not see Luck doing that every week once he is promoted to QB/OC.

I could absolutely see that happening. But they might also try to be more balanced if they can find a RB and improve that line. Hard to say which is more likely IMO. Luck will be great either way, but moving forward there are pretty likely to be dudes chucking the rock 650+ times with increasing regularity, based on system / necessity and not solely on talent.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Not to be argumentative, but you're saying teams will try to replicate the team that lost with the 2nd greatest QB of all time instead of the team that won with a 3rd round pick at QB. If you look at the QBs coming in - EJ, Geno, Manziel, Bortles, TB, Winston, Mariota, Hundley, Hackenberg - I don't see the supply.

All the Peyton teams had balance, except a few years where Addai was terrible. Balance isn't a dirty word if Luck becomes 90% of what he was supposed to be.

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't know how anyone could watch the Chiefs/Colts playoff game and not see Luck doing that every week once he is promoted to QB/OC.

I could absolutely see that happening. But they might also try to be more balanced if they can find a RB and improve that line. Hard to say which is more likely IMO. Luck will be great either way, but moving forward there are pretty likely to be dudes chucking the rock 650+ times with increasing regularity, based on system / necessity and not solely on talent.

That and Luck hasn't exactly had the benefit of legit weapons like some of the other QBs, not to mention he just played his 2nd year. He is.....................pretty far ahead of schedule compared to all the other top end QBs except Peyton right now.

Is he limited by the offense?? Maybe, but things change quickly in the NFL. He might have a run happy OC today and a throw in 60 times a game OC tomorrow.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Not to be argumentative, but you're saying teams will try to replicate the team that lost with the 2nd greatest QB of all time instead of the team that won with a 3rd round pick at QB. If you look at the QBs coming in - EJ, Geno, Manziel, Bortles, TB, Winston, Mariota, Hundley, Hackenberg - I don't see the supply.

All the Peyton teams had balance, except a few years where Addai was terrible. Balance isn't a dirty word if Luck becomes 90% of what he was supposed to be.

Not reading you as argumentative -- it's an interesting discussion and worth having. Overall, I definitely do see more teams throwing the ball more moving forward, regardless of who won the Super Bowl this year. It'll extend the pool of lower QB1s. Luck will still be better than those guys certainly, but by how much? Manning's long run of 4000 - 4500 / 30 wouldn't be worth as much today as it was when it was actually happening, when merely good QBs like Stafford, Newton, RGIII can dwarf those numbers d/t situation or running ability.

I'm not down on Luck specifically at all. I'd hesitate to pay cornerstone prices for any QB right now.

 

[Jrodicus]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats. Of course, health is the major concern. But I'll take a risky, young RB1 over those spare parts without hesitation.

I think I sold low on Vereen as well, but I might be able to use the pieces I got back to move up in the draft.

 

[maxhyde]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats. Of course, health is the major concern. But I'll take a risky, young RB1 over those spare parts without hesitation.

I think I sold low on Vereen as well, but I might be able to use the pieces I got back to move up in the draft.

I think you got great value even if not all in one piece.

its a clear win if either Streater or Miller can become a decent FLEX option or better which isn't unreasonable. The 2.01 is a pretty solid pick this year

 

[cstu]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

I like your odds of getting a player comparable to Vereen at 2.01.

I'm on the other side. Vereen will be an RB1 on a PPG basis, while healthy, in PPR formats. Of course, health is the major concern. But I'll take a risky, young RB1 over those spare parts without hesitation.

I think I sold low on Vereen as well, but I might be able to use the pieces I got back to move up in the draft.

You only sold low if one of the other 11 owners value him at his extremely high start up ADP. He's worth taking a chance on but he's also a 25 yo RB who has played 8 games a year in his 3 year career.

 

[Concept Coop]

You only sold low if one of the other 11 owners value him at his extremely high start up ADP. He's worth taking a chance on but he's also a 25 yo RB who has played 8 games a year in his 3 year career.

According to DLF, you could sell him at half of his ADP value and get more than this.

 

[cstu]

You only sold low if one of the other 11 owners value him at his extremely high start up ADP. He's worth taking a chance on but he's also a 25 yo RB who has played 8 games a year in his 3 year career.

According to DLF, you could sell him at half of his ADP value and get more than this.

No one in our league wanted him for that.

 

[Concept Coop]

No one in our league wanted him for that.

Yeah, it will vary from league to league. The last time I tried to acquire him, I was told he would cost 1.05, Patterson, Tavon +, or Montee Ball +.

Perhaps I'm too low on Miller, but I see the 2.01 as the biggest part on that side, and even in a strong class, that's not close to Vereen, IMO.

 

[cstu]

No one in our league wanted him for that.

Yeah, it will vary from league to league. The last time I tried to acquire him, I was told he would cost 1.05, Patterson, Tavon +, or Montee Ball +.

Perhaps I'm too low on Miller, but I see the 2.01 as the biggest part on that side, and even in a strong class, that's not close to Vereen, IMO.

I expect 7 WR's to go in the 1st round of rookie drafts, plus Ebron. At worst you get one of the #4 RB, #2 TE, or #1 QB. I'll take my chances on that over Vereen.

It would also be easy to package one of the players to move up into the 1st and get the player you want.

 

[Concept Coop]

I expect 7 WR's to go in the 1st round of rookie drafts, plus Ebron. At worst you get the #4 RB, #2 TE, or #1 QB. I'll take my chances on that over Vereen.

The #4 RB won't fall to 2.01 in any of my leagues. There will be some nice names at 2.01--Manziel, Teddy, Amaro, Cooks, Mathews, etc--but I don't see anything I'd take over Vereen.

We just don't agree on his actual value, which is fine. We'll see.

 

[starks]

Traded away 1.11 for Christine Michael and Shane Vereen

 

[Concept Coop]

Traded away 1.11 for Christine Michael and Shane Vereen

 

[msudaisy26]

I don't know how anyone could watch the Chiefs/Colts playoff game and not see Luck doing that every week once he is promoted to QB/OC.

I could absolutely see that happening. But they might also try to be more balanced if they can find a RB and improve that line. Hard to say which is more likely IMO. Luck will be great either way, but moving forward there are pretty likely to be dudes chucking the rock 650+ times with increasing regularity, based on system / necessity and not solely on talent.

That and Luck hasn't exactly had the benefit of legit weapons like some of the other QBs, not to mention he just played his 2nd year. He is.....................pretty far ahead of schedule compared to all the other top end QBs except Peyton right now.

Is he limited by the offense?? Maybe, but things change quickly in the NFL. He might have a run happy OC today and a throw in 60 times a game OC tomorrow.

He is ahead of Peyton in terms of Peyton's 2nd year versus Luck's second year.

 

[JohnnyU]

Traded away 1.11 for Christine Michael and Shane Vereen

Nicely done.

 

[One More Rep]

Vereen

For

Miller, Streater, 2.01

Vereen

 

[maxhyde]

You only sold low if one of the other 11 owners value him at his extremely high start up ADP. He's worth taking a chance on but he's also a 25 yo RB who has played 8 games a year in his 3 year career.

According to DLF, you could sell him at half of his ADP value and get more than this.

No one in our league wanted him for that.

No one anywhere wants him for that except in a start up where you take youth before production

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't know how anyone could watch the Chiefs/Colts playoff game and not see Luck doing that every week once he is promoted to QB/OC.

I could absolutely see that happening. But they might also try to be more balanced if they can find a RB and improve that line. Hard to say which is more likely IMO. Luck will be great either way, but moving forward there are pretty likely to be dudes chucking the rock 650+ times with increasing regularity, based on system / necessity and not solely on talent.

That and Luck hasn't exactly had the benefit of legit weapons like some of the other QBs, not to mention he just played his 2nd year. He is.....................pretty far ahead of schedule compared to all the other top end QBs except Peyton right now.

Is he limited by the offense?? Maybe, but things change quickly in the NFL. He might have a run happy OC today and a throw in 60 times a game OC tomorrow.

He is ahead of Peyton in terms of Peyton's 2nd year versus Luck's second year.

Not relative to the rest of the league though. You can't just look at numbers from 15 years ago and compare.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

12 team PPR.

Gave:

Julian Edelman

2016 2nd

Got:

2.05

2015 1st (hopefully late-ish, it's mine that I had previously dealt)

 

[One More Rep]

12 team PPR.

Gave:

Julian Edelman

2016 2nd

Got:

2.05

2015 1st (hopefully late-ish, it's mine that I had previously dealt)

Nice deal for you