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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)

Today in my 16 team TE Premium PPR:

I would lean 1.08 over Hilton in a 12-teamer. 16 teams increases the value of the sure thing. But still think that is basically a toss-up. What is the total FAAB budget, $100? $1000?
$50 is what each team gets to begin each new season.

I'm the owner who gave T.Y. and $25 for the 1.08. For me it's a numbers game and that became my 6th first round pick of the draft. I was buying an increase in probability to 'hit' on my picks.
50% of FAAB seems like a lot, but if you prefer 1.08 to Hilton I don't necessarily see a problem with it.

Not sure if I understand the increase on hitting of picks as I would think the outcome would be independent of the others - but I can understand just preferring the talent available there. If you have 5 other 1sts, that also increases your roster's age consistency (i.e. next couple years of Hilton might be wasted).
The way I see it, there are about 9 WRs who all have a legitimate chance of being best WR in the class. So I want as many top 9 picks as I can get but I don't want a top 3 pick because I'm higher on consensus 6-9 WRs. The more opportunities I have in the top 9, the better my chances of hitting on the right player(s). This is a deep class, but the reality is that probably only a few actually become elite WRs. So that leaves (realistically) 3/9 who will actually become fantasy elite WRs. I'm not foolish enough to believe I can predict the correct 3, so all I can do is increase the number of picks I have in the first round.

Before this trade I had 5 of top 14 picks or 36% of the available players from the top 14. Adding a 6th pick now gives me 43% of the top 14 opportunities. That's where I paid to increase my odds. I also believe that the few WRs who do "hit" from this draft will be better than T.Y. So IF I hit I do believe those hits will surpass T.Y. for fantasy purposes.

 
Today in my 16 team TE Premium PPR:

I would lean 1.08 over Hilton in a 12-teamer. 16 teams increases the value of the sure thing. But still think that is basically a toss-up. What is the total FAAB budget, $100? $1000?
$50 is what each team gets to begin each new season.

I'm the owner who gave T.Y. and $25 for the 1.08. For me it's a numbers game and that became my 6th first round pick of the draft. I was buying an increase in probability to 'hit' on my picks.
50% of FAAB seems like a lot, but if you prefer 1.08 to Hilton I don't necessarily see a problem with it.

Not sure if I understand the increase on hitting of picks as I would think the outcome would be independent of the others - but I can understand just preferring the talent available there. If you have 5 other 1sts, that also increases your roster's age consistency (i.e. next couple years of Hilton might be wasted).
The way I see it, there are about 9 WRs who all have a legitimate chance of being best WR in the class. So I want as many top 9 picks as I can get but I don't want a top 3 pick because I'm higher on consensus 6-9 WRs. The more opportunities I have in the top 9, the better my chances of hitting on the right player(s). This is a deep class, but the reality is that probably only a few actually become elite WRs. So that leaves (realistically) 3/9 who will actually become fantasy elite WRs. I'm not foolish enough to believe I can predict the correct 3, so all I can do is increase the number of picks I have in the first round.

Before this trade I had 5 of top 14 picks or 36% of the available players from the top 14. Adding a 6th pick now gives me 43% of the top 14 opportunities. That's where I paid to increase my odds. I also believe that the few WRs who do "hit" from this draft will be better than T.Y. So IF I hit I do believe those hits will surpass T.Y. for fantasy purposes.
Thanks for breaking out your thinking. Based on those figures, the way I would decide is 1/3 of elite WR (since 1.08 is independent of other picks) vs. Hilton.

 
14 team dynasty PPR .75/1/1.25 with devys

I made two big trades in the last week.

1) I gave: Cobb

I got: Brandin Cooks, Bowe, 2015 1st, 2015 devy, $200 BB (both picks are a middle tier team)

Why? Cobb is an UFA and they drafted 3 WRs that made me nervous. Cooks is in a perfect situation and is a more athletic version of Cobb.

2) I gave: Gore, Boldin, 2015 1st(middle), 2015 2nd(early), 2015 devy(middle), 2015 devy(later), $50 BB

I got: Lynch, Turbin

Why? I won the league last year and I think getting Lynch completes my team to make a run again.

My team now

QB-Luck, A. Smith

RB- Lynch, Foster, Pierre, DMC, Dwill, Turbin, A. Brown

WR- Jeffery, A. Brown, Cooks, Jennings, Bowe, M. Lee, P. Richardson

TE- Graham, Rivera

D- Seattle

Devys- Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon

Picks- No draft picks, 3 devys(1 late and 2 early)

 
14 team dynasty PPR .75/1/1.25 with devys

I made two big trades in the last week.

1) I gave: Cobb

I got: Brandin Cooks, Bowe, 2015 1st, 2015 devy, $200 BB (both picks are a middle tier team)

Why? Cobb is an UFA and they drafted 3 WRs that made me nervous. Cooks is in a perfect situation and is a more athletic version of Cobb.

2) I gave: Gore, Boldin, 2015 1st(middle), 2015 2nd(early), 2015 devy(middle), 2015 devy(later), $50 BB

I got: Lynch, Turbin

Why? I won the league last year and I think getting Lynch completes my team to make a run again.

My team now

QB-Luck, A. Smith

RB- Lynch, Foster, Pierre, DMC, Dwill, Turbin, A. Brown

WR- Jeffery, A. Brown, Cooks, Jennings, Bowe, M. Lee, P. Richardson

TE- Graham, Rivera

D- Seattle

Devys- Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon

Picks- No draft picks, 3 devys(1 late and 2 early)
I like it.

Risky move with Cobb but I like Cooks and you seem to have the depth to pull it off.

Buying Lynch is a solid move imo even if only a rental

 
12 team PPR, standard scoring

Team A gets: R.Bush, Bowe, 1.11 and 1.12

Team B gets: 1.02, 3.02
Thats a lot for Evans
You won't miss any of it if he hits.
I was the side getting Evans. For me, its the old 4 quarters for a dollar deal. I expect Evans to be a stud. The 2 draft picks may pan out, they may not (Evans is much more likely to hit than whatever I would get at those 2 spots). Bowe was basically roster fodder for me. Bush is really the only one I might miss today, but he's obviously getting up there and his role is going to be scaled back this year. I have J.Bell as I think he will be the higher producer between the 2 this year.

 
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.

 
12 Team PPR

Gave:

Marqise Lee

Jeremy Maclin

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Got:

CJ Spiller

Zach Ertz

3.01 (took Isaiah Crowell)

Lee/Maclin were my WR6/7 and all I had at RB were Gio/Sankey/L.Miller.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
EBF said:
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.
I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
EBF said:
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.
I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.
There's a lot of room between "late 1st" and "not bottom 4-5". I agree with him, that isn't a "late 1st" team on paper right now.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
EBF said:
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.
I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.
There's a lot of room between "late 1st" and "not bottom 4-5". I agree with him, that isn't a "late 1st" team on paper right now.
In all fairness he said "gambling that my first will be a late one next year." He never said he was banking on that.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
EBF said:
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.
I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.
There's a lot of room between "late 1st" and "not bottom 4-5". I agree with him, that isn't a "late 1st" team on paper right now.
In all fairness he said "gambling that my first will be a late one next year." He never said he was banking on that.
Yeah, I didn't make the 1st reply, just saying there's a difference between the two.

 
I find the Gordon offers all really interesting as value is completely dependent on how you feel the league rules (which nobody knows yet). Then, you have an added layer of how you feel Gordon will behave when he does come back. Is he a lifetime bad decision maker, an adict, or just a young kid that needs to mature and this is his wake up call. This one went down in a league I'm in, as I was also negotiating with the Gordon owner, but wouldn't give up Kaep and 1.5 to get him.

Crabtree

1.11

5..03

for

Gordon

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
EBF said:
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.
I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.
Graham is a bonafide stud of course, but Luck and Fitz are really just solid starters that are good for consistent points on teams that are very strong elsewhere. Luck, of course, could make that big turn at any moment to become an elite FF stud, but he hasn't yet. QB7 last year in PPG and a full 4+ ppg behind the truly elite QBs. Not really a difference maker to this point in his career.

Cameron started really strong but faded big-time after the first month of the season. The return of Hoyer could propel him back into elite status (he was at his best with Hoyer in there), but it's far from a guarantee. The rest of the roster is a lot of hope. The fact that you're listing Moncrief, who is likely to be a part-time WR4 on his own team this year, and Ebron, a rookie at a position where rookies rarely every contribute majorly, amongst your guys competing for playing time is telling. To be fair though, I have never played in a 1.5 TE ppr league so that could be boosting those guy's value a lot higher than I'm giving them credit for.

Of course, this is fantasy football where preseason rankings mean little so that could very well be a championship team. It just looks to me like it would take a lot of good fortune and several major breakouts from those guys for that to be anywhere near a late pick, not something I'm sure I'd bank/gamble on when moving the pick.

That said, I think the trade itself is pretty fair. Even if the pick next year is early or mid it might not net a better prospect than Mason.

 
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The rest of the roster is a lot of hope. The fact that you're listing Moncrief, who is likely to be a part-time WR4 on his own team this year, and Ebron, a rookie at a position where rookies rarely every contribute majorly, amongst your guys competing for playing time is telling. To be fair though, I have never played in a 1.5 TE ppr league so that could be boosting those guy's value a lot higher than I'm giving them credit for.

Of course, this is fantasy football where preseason rankings mean little so that could very well be a championship team. It just looks to me like it would take a lot of good fortune and several major breakouts from those guys for that to be anywhere near a late pick.
Well, I wasn't going to list my entire roster. Just a few key guys. It is a little deeper than I let on:

QB - Luck

RB - Gerhart, T Rich, Hill, B Brown, Mason, Greene, Pierce

WR/TE - Graham, Cameron, Fitz, Eifert, Ebron, Stevie, M Williams, Gresham, Holmes, Ausberry, Moncrief, L Willson

Everyone always likes his own team more than other owners do, but with the 1.5 PPR for TE I expect this to be a playoff team if everyone stays healthy. Luck, Gerhart, Graham, Cameron, and Fitz should be a nice core to anchor to. I have enough "stuff" beyond those guys that I should be able to fill out the remainder of a starting lineup. Understand that I'm more of a believer in Gerhart and Cameron than a lot of people, so I'm operating from the standpoint that those guys are going to produce. I have lots and lots of young guys who have the ability to pop (i.e. Pierce, Eifert, Ebron, Trent, Ausberry, Mason, Bryce).

In a 14 team league with deep lineups where everyone will have trouble fielding a team without holes, I don't see this team as likely to end up with such a high rookie pick that I regret that trade barring a slew of injuries, which is always possible.

And yes, 1.5 PPR for TE makes a massive difference.

 
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I find the Gordon offers all really interesting as value is completely dependent on how you feel the league rules (which nobody knows yet). Then, you have an added layer of how you feel Gordon will behave when he does come back. Is he a lifetime bad decision maker, an adict, or just a young kid that needs to mature and this is his wake up call. This one went down in a league I'm in, as I was also negotiating with the Gordon owner, but wouldn't give up Kaep and 1.5 to get him.

Crabtree

1.11

5..03

for

Gordon
Pretty good for Gordon considering some other firesale prices we have seen

12 team ppr QB - 2 RB - 3 WR - TE - FL

Like Floyd better but Cooks is definitely intriguing in that landing spot

 
FreeBaGeL said:
EBF said:
14 team w/ dev players. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX. .5/1/1.5 PPR for RB/WR/TE.

Gave:

1.08 dev pick

2015 1st

Got:

RB Tre Mason

Couple decent options in the devy pool. This is a draft-eligible devy only, so Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis, Karlos, etc. are all still out there. I didn't anticipate anyone falling to 1.08 that I'm very high on. Gambling that my first will be a late one next year. Had a horrible season in 2013, but have a pretty good roster of Luck/TRich/Gerhart/Fitzgerald/Graham/Cameron/Eifert/Ebron/Moncrief/etc.
A reasonable trade since the 2015 1st will be dinged by the devy players being gone.

I'm not sure I would be banking on that 2015 1st being a late one though. It's going to take several of those players having huge breakout years for that to happen.
I see Luck, Fitz, Graham, and Cameron as pretty strong redraft options. It's more uncertain with TRich, Gerhart, and Eifert, but if 1-2 of those guys are decent then I don't see my team in the bottom 4-5 this next year.

Late 1sts actually had a lot of value in this league this year (Mason went 1.13 and Hill 1.14), but I don't think next year's pool is nearly as deep.
Graham is a bonafide stud of course, but Luck and Fitz are really just solid starters that are good for consistent points on teams that are very strong elsewhere. Luck, of course, could make that big turn at any moment to become an elite FF stud, but he hasn't yet. QB7 last year in PPG and a full 4+ ppg behind the truly elite QBs. Not really a difference maker to this point in his career.

Cameron started really strong but faded big-time after the first month of the season. The return of Hoyer could propel him back into elite status (he was at his best with Hoyer in there), but it's far from a guarantee. The rest of the roster is a lot of hope. The fact that you're listing Moncrief, who is likely to be a part-time WR4 on his own team this year, and Ebron, a rookie at a position where rookies rarely every contribute majorly, amongst your guys competing for playing time is telling. To be fair though, I have never played in a 1.5 TE ppr league so that could be boosting those guy's value a lot higher than I'm giving them credit for.

Of course, this is fantasy football where preseason rankings mean little so that could very well be a championship team. It just looks to me like it would take a lot of good fortune and several major breakouts from those guys for that to be anywhere near a late pick, not something I'm sure I'd bank/gamble on when moving the pick.

That said, I think the trade itself is pretty fair. Even if the pick next year is early or mid it might not net a better prospect than Mason.
A little too much for Mason imo. Also, although I like the roster for dynasty, I do think the 2015 1st will be an earlier one rather than later (for the same reasons indicated above).

 
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I like Cooks but he seems like option 3/4 in that offense
Out of curiosity, who do you think options 2 and 3 are?
Colston and Pierre Thomas, I'd guess, for next year at least and maybe a bit beyond. Stills is young and mildly promising as far as long term.
There will be no shortage of targets in that offense, IMO. They had 2 RBs with 70+ receptions (lost one). Being 3/4th in that offense is a positive, not a negative.

 
I like Cooks but he seems like option 3/4 in that offense
Out of curiosity, who do you think options 2 and 3 are?
Colston and Pierre Thomas, I'd guess, for next year at least and maybe a bit beyond. Stills is young and mildly promising as far as long term.
There will be no shortage of targets in that offense, IMO. They had 2 RBs with 70+ receptions (lost one). Being 3/4th in that offense is a positive, not a negative.
I think Cooks has a fast path to "Devery Henderson plus" status, and could be fantasy relevant as early as his rookie season. But I also think his upside is capped a bit in that offense, and by Brees' age. I think people are really high on him because he's a very good talent going to a great offense, but I'm not that into him for some reason.
 
I find the Gordon offers all really interesting as value is completely dependent on how you feel the league rules (which nobody knows yet). Then, you have an added layer of how you feel Gordon will behave when he does come back. Is he a lifetime bad decision maker, an adict, or just a young kid that needs to mature and this is his wake up call. This one went down in a league I'm in, as I was also negotiating with the Gordon owner, but wouldn't give up Kaep and 1.5 to get him.

Crabtree

1.11

5..03

for

Gordon
I don't think I'd trade Crabtree straight up for Gordon right now
 
12 team PPR qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/flex/k/def

Team A:

Josh Gordon

2015 4th

2016 2nd

BJGE

Team B:

2015 1st

2016 1st

Frank Gore

CJ Anderson

2016 4th

2016 5th

 

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