Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
The way I see it, there are about 9 WRs who all have a legitimate chance of being best WR in the class. So I want as many top 9 picks as I can get but I don't want a top 3 pick because I'm higher on consensus 6-9 WRs. The more opportunities I have in the top 9, the better my chances of hitting on the right player(s). This is a deep class, but the reality is that probably only a few actually become elite WRs. So that leaves (realistically) 3/9 who will actually become fantasy elite WRs. I'm not foolish enough to believe I can predict the correct 3, so all I can do is increase the number of picks I have in the first round.50% of FAAB seems like a lot, but if you prefer 1.08 to Hilton I don't necessarily see a problem with it.$50 is what each team gets to begin each new season.I would lean 1.08 over Hilton in a 12-teamer. 16 teams increases the value of the sure thing. But still think that is basically a toss-up. What is the total FAAB budget, $100? $1000?Today in my 16 team TE Premium PPR:
- Team A | gave up Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.08
- Team B | gave up Hilton, T.Y. IND WR
- $25
I'm the owner who gave T.Y. and $25 for the 1.08. For me it's a numbers game and that became my 6th first round pick of the draft. I was buying an increase in probability to 'hit' on my picks.
Not sure if I understand the increase on hitting of picks as I would think the outcome would be independent of the others - but I can understand just preferring the talent available there. If you have 5 other 1sts, that also increases your roster's age consistency (i.e. next couple years of Hilton might be wasted).
Before this trade I had 5 of top 14 picks or 36% of the available players from the top 14. Adding a 6th pick now gives me 43% of the top 14 opportunities. That's where I paid to increase my odds. I also believe that the few WRs who do "hit" from this draft will be better than T.Y. So IF I hit I do believe those hits will surpass T.Y. for fantasy purposes.