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***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Nothing better to do during halftime than gratuitously post my team.
Aaron Rodgers $31
Kyle Orton $14
Simple. Small risk of Orton getting benched at the end of the year, whatever.
Ray Rice $35
Reggie Bush $15
Pierre Thomas $7
Jerome Harrison $5
Ben Tate $3
Derrick Ward $3
Isaac Redman $2
Everyone has Ray Rice. I went cheapo otherwise but with even .5 PPR Bush and Thomas should put up solid weeks. Only a $6 outlay = decent points if Foster misses games. I love Redman for $2, backing up a guy who just racked up ~400 touches on a SB run. Harrison may turn out to be a scrub, but he may also may get 50% of Detroit's rushes.
Larry Fitzgerald $28
Dez Bryant $21
Lee Evans $10
Lance Moore $10
Malcom Floyd $8
Bernard Berrian $5
Antonio Brown $3
Dexter McCluster $2
Everyone has Fitzgerald. Originally I had a lot of "catchy" PPR types in here but I switched those out for more big TD scorers. I need Bryant to be a WR1 for a WR2 price, but after that I just need some long TDs from Evans and Berrian. Floyd is cheap, not sure if Crayton is starting over him, but Floyd will score TDs too.
Brandon Pettigrew $11
Aaron Hernandez $10
I would rather have 3 TEs of course, but both of these guys should be at 70+ catches.
5 kickers
4 defense at $3 each
Aaron Rodgers $31
Kyle Orton $14
Simple. Small risk of Orton getting benched at the end of the year, whatever.
Ray Rice $35
Reggie Bush $15
Pierre Thomas $7
Jerome Harrison $5
Ben Tate $3
Derrick Ward $3
Isaac Redman $2
Everyone has Ray Rice. I went cheapo otherwise but with even .5 PPR Bush and Thomas should put up solid weeks. Only a $6 outlay = decent points if Foster misses games. I love Redman for $2, backing up a guy who just racked up ~400 touches on a SB run. Harrison may turn out to be a scrub, but he may also may get 50% of Detroit's rushes.
Larry Fitzgerald $28
Dez Bryant $21
Lee Evans $10
Lance Moore $10
Malcom Floyd $8
Bernard Berrian $5
Antonio Brown $3
Dexter McCluster $2
Everyone has Fitzgerald. Originally I had a lot of "catchy" PPR types in here but I switched those out for more big TD scorers. I need Bryant to be a WR1 for a WR2 price, but after that I just need some long TDs from Evans and Berrian. Floyd is cheap, not sure if Crayton is starting over him, but Floyd will score TDs too.
Brandon Pettigrew $11
Aaron Hernandez $10
I would rather have 3 TEs of course, but both of these guys should be at 70+ catches.
5 kickers
4 defense at $3 each
chocula
Footballguy
This is what I ended up with:
Philip Rivers $24
Sam Bradford $17
I have Bradford in another league and have a feeling about him this year. The guy with Rivers seems to beat me every year, so I wanted him this year. Again, I think Rivers is in for a monster year.
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Michael Turner $27
Knowshon Moreno $18
Tim Hightower $14
Danny Woodhead $10
Javon Ringer $3
Ben Tate $3
Marion Barber $3
I am the long shot to make it with this set of RBs. Atlanta has a great pass game and will open things up for Turner.
The rest are possible upside guys just taking a chance that there will be an injury.
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Vincent Jackson $25
Jeremy Maclin $20
Mike Sims-Walker $11
Plaxico Burress $10
Lee Evans $10
Jacoby Jones $6
Mohamed Massaquoi $4
I cannot decide why everyone is down on Maclin this year. I think he will have a good year.
Lee Evans burnt me every year in Buffalo, so he owns me a good season.
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Owen Daniels $12
Aaron Hernandez $10
Thought 2 good TE would be sufficient.
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Matt Bryant $4
Rob Bironas $3
Same as TE
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Pittsburgh Steelers $9
Philadelphia Eagles $7
The Eagles have taken me to the championship game before. Might as well happen this year as well.
Philip Rivers $24
Sam Bradford $17
I have Bradford in another league and have a feeling about him this year. The guy with Rivers seems to beat me every year, so I wanted him this year. Again, I think Rivers is in for a monster year.
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Michael Turner $27
Knowshon Moreno $18
Tim Hightower $14
Danny Woodhead $10
Javon Ringer $3
Ben Tate $3
Marion Barber $3
I am the long shot to make it with this set of RBs. Atlanta has a great pass game and will open things up for Turner.
The rest are possible upside guys just taking a chance that there will be an injury.
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Vincent Jackson $25
Jeremy Maclin $20
Mike Sims-Walker $11
Plaxico Burress $10
Lee Evans $10
Jacoby Jones $6
Mohamed Massaquoi $4
I cannot decide why everyone is down on Maclin this year. I think he will have a good year.
Lee Evans burnt me every year in Buffalo, so he owns me a good season.
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Owen Daniels $12
Aaron Hernandez $10
Thought 2 good TE would be sufficient.
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Matt Bryant $4
Rob Bironas $3
Same as TE
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Pittsburgh Steelers $9
Philadelphia Eagles $7
The Eagles have taken me to the championship game before. Might as well happen this year as well.
Saint
Footballguy
I don't have either, yet I have a sneaky suspicion we will both survive the cuts this week.I have Rodgers and Nelson.Championship
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Less than 3% of owners have Chris Johnson...wow, that's surprising to me.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
QB: P Rivers SD/6 $24
QB: B Roethlisburger PIT/11 $23
Go heavy or go home. Didn't want to spend the money on 3QBs and didn't feel safe with McCoy or Stafford, even though they should both be good. Went with two dependable guys who don't miss much action. And yes, now that I've said that Rivers will be hurt for Ben's week 11 Bye if I make that far.
RB: F Jones DAL/5 $23
RB: J Starks GB/8 $16
RB: W McGahee DEN/6 $11
RB: B Scott CIN/7 $9
RB: D Karim JAX/9 $3
RB: B Tate HOU/11 $3
RB: T Jones OAK/8 $2
Not a fan of RB studs in this contest. Like Jones a lot this year so I made him my centerpiece. I think Starks will have that job by week 5. Not a fan of Moreno so McGahee seems like a good risk to me. I echo everyone else who thinks that Scott is both better and slightly less crazy than Benson, so hoping he takes over this year. I'm going very heavy in all my leagues on MJD breaking down this year. Had Jennings in a lot of leagues and now have Karim in a lot of leagues. Just a gut feel. Tate or Ward was a tough choice. I decided to go upside over dependability. I love Jones' talent and he is my Top 250 lottery ticket.
WR: S Holmes NYJ/8 $24
WR: D Bryant DAL/5 $21
WR: H Ward PIT/11 $14
WR: A Roberts ARI/6 $9
WR: J Simpson CIN/7 $8
WR: D Williams TEN/6 $4
WR: D Moore OAK/8 $3
WR: A Brown PIT/11 $3
I think WR depth is big here. Knew I had to have Bryant and that he would be popular, so took Holmes as the "stud" figuring he would be more unique. Ward is getting up there but he's steady and paired him with Antonio Brown. I eat week 11 Byes for breakfast. Like Roberts and think he emerges over Doucet and Simpson seems like a douchey pick, if you will. For the last WR spot I had Cobb for awhile (damn), then Harry Douglas, but decided to go "off the plantation" with Damien Williams. Hey. You never know.
TE: J Graham NO/11 $15
TE: A Hernandez NE/7 $10
TE: L Kendricks STL/5 $6
TE: T Scheffler DET/9 $3
Wanted 4 TEs and two good ones. Love Graham this year (although I wish he got more looks tonight) and figured the Bye would scare folks off. Hernandez and Gronkowski are a toss up for me so I went with the cheaper option. Knew Kendricks would be heavily owned so I got on the K Train. I had Evan Moore for a long time as the 4th TE but he has the same Bye as Kendricks and I wanted 3 TEs playing every week so I went with Scheffler over Tamme based on the Manning injury concerns.
PK: N Folk NYJ/8 $3
PK: R Lindell BUF/7 $2
PK: S Suisham PIT/11 $3
DEF: St Louis STL/5 $3
DEF: Arizona ARI/6 $3
DEF: Buffalo BUF/7 $2
Wanted three each for $8 each. Tried to get the best I could, with some differentiation, while working in my Bills.
Good luck to everyone. Great contest!
QB: B Roethlisburger PIT/11 $23
Go heavy or go home. Didn't want to spend the money on 3QBs and didn't feel safe with McCoy or Stafford, even though they should both be good. Went with two dependable guys who don't miss much action. And yes, now that I've said that Rivers will be hurt for Ben's week 11 Bye if I make that far.
RB: F Jones DAL/5 $23
RB: J Starks GB/8 $16
RB: W McGahee DEN/6 $11
RB: B Scott CIN/7 $9
RB: D Karim JAX/9 $3
RB: B Tate HOU/11 $3
RB: T Jones OAK/8 $2
Not a fan of RB studs in this contest. Like Jones a lot this year so I made him my centerpiece. I think Starks will have that job by week 5. Not a fan of Moreno so McGahee seems like a good risk to me. I echo everyone else who thinks that Scott is both better and slightly less crazy than Benson, so hoping he takes over this year. I'm going very heavy in all my leagues on MJD breaking down this year. Had Jennings in a lot of leagues and now have Karim in a lot of leagues. Just a gut feel. Tate or Ward was a tough choice. I decided to go upside over dependability. I love Jones' talent and he is my Top 250 lottery ticket.
WR: S Holmes NYJ/8 $24
WR: D Bryant DAL/5 $21
WR: H Ward PIT/11 $14
WR: A Roberts ARI/6 $9
WR: J Simpson CIN/7 $8
WR: D Williams TEN/6 $4
WR: D Moore OAK/8 $3
WR: A Brown PIT/11 $3
I think WR depth is big here. Knew I had to have Bryant and that he would be popular, so took Holmes as the "stud" figuring he would be more unique. Ward is getting up there but he's steady and paired him with Antonio Brown. I eat week 11 Byes for breakfast. Like Roberts and think he emerges over Doucet and Simpson seems like a douchey pick, if you will. For the last WR spot I had Cobb for awhile (damn), then Harry Douglas, but decided to go "off the plantation" with Damien Williams. Hey. You never know.
TE: J Graham NO/11 $15
TE: A Hernandez NE/7 $10
TE: L Kendricks STL/5 $6
TE: T Scheffler DET/9 $3
Wanted 4 TEs and two good ones. Love Graham this year (although I wish he got more looks tonight) and figured the Bye would scare folks off. Hernandez and Gronkowski are a toss up for me so I went with the cheaper option. Knew Kendricks would be heavily owned so I got on the K Train. I had Evan Moore for a long time as the 4th TE but he has the same Bye as Kendricks and I wanted 3 TEs playing every week so I went with Scheffler over Tamme based on the Manning injury concerns.
PK: N Folk NYJ/8 $3
PK: R Lindell BUF/7 $2
PK: S Suisham PIT/11 $3
DEF: St Louis STL/5 $3
DEF: Arizona ARI/6 $3
DEF: Buffalo BUF/7 $2
Wanted three each for $8 each. Tried to get the best I could, with some differentiation, while working in my Bills.
Good luck to everyone. Great contest!
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Will take a couple minutes and comment on my team this year. Total roster size ended up at 27 which is up from the 26 I had last year. Briefly had a 30-man look but chickened out.
3 QBS - $48
QB - Brady $27 9.8% owned
QB - Hasselbeck $11 1.9%
QB - McCoy $10 22.2%
I'm a 3 QB proponent and almost spent even more than the comparatively high $48 until I got scared of how thin my WRs looked. Pretty much was Rivers/Stafford/McCoy in most permutations until the last day when things radically changed. Toyed with Dalton briefly instead of McCoy but just couldn't pull the trigger - I think they'll run way too much. Also looked at some Stafford/Kolb/McCoy scenarios too. Looked over my byes and realized 2 of my studs were off the same week (Rivers/Fitzgerald) and started to tinker as I disliked that a lot. Ended up with Brady who's a bit over priced but will score a ton and it's good to have at least a couple of guys like that IMO. Hasselbeck literally was the last decision I made. I looked through the QBs and really wanted to boost WR. I thought about it, especially with a wide open division, and came to the conclusion that he'd be a decent option (and one likely less owned). That Hasselbeck pick might be what kills me. I think the Pats will have ridiculous passing numbers. It seems the Browns fans are ecstatic about McCoy and frankly that schedule is ridiculous - easy play even though I knew he'd be heavily owned.
6 RBs - $80
RB - ADP $37 8.7%
RB - Benson $17 4.6%
RB - Hightower $14 37.4%
RB - P Thomas $7 15.7%
RB - M Barber $3 13.8%
RB - Redman $2 10.7%
Had 7 for a while - notably your Tate and Howling types at the bottom. ADP is a staple on my teams in this contest it seems - he's still top notch and I really think things will get better after last year's mess. They'll use him more. Benson I figured would be unpopular but he's the bell cow - safe to get a ton of yards and will get the bulk of goal-line carries. He does hurt a little bit in PPR (though it seems the new OC is more inclined to get him in the passing game). Hightower is going to do well in that offense and is a great pass catcher. Between him and Benson I like my RB 2 and feel okay about it on Peterson's week 9 bye. Pierre Thomas (as seen tonight) will get a respectable amount of carries and actually more catches out of the backfield. For $7 he's a good buy. Barber (though now I understand he's hurt) seemed a decent gamble at $3 (and there's some Bear-fan enthusiasm there). Redman is going to get more carries than any of his neighbors in the $2 neighborhood IMO. The soft schedule the Steelers have is also conducive to him getting some garbage-time TDs. He's
if Mendenhall gets hurt. Feel good about this bunch.
8 WRs - $77
WR - V Jackson $25 30.3%
WR - S Moss $16 11.5%
WR - Burress $10 13.7%
WR - L Evans $10 18.8%
WR - Burleson $8 30.3%
WR - A Brown $3 30.8%
WR - D Moore $3 26.5%
WR - Cribbs $2 7.2%
I had some permutations that had as many as 10 WRs like many people on here seem to prefer. Josh Morgan was on a lot of these versions for example. The Burress/Evans pairing were my #2 and #3 very late in the process and then I just got scared that I was blowing it and going with too much uncertainty and moved things around to get Santana Moss in the mix. Part of this was switching from Fitzgerald to Vincent Jackson (who is more popular in the contest than I would have expected). With VJax/Moss/Burress/Evans/Burleson I feel like I'll get 3 solid scores every week. Brown and Moore (especially more) have decent potential to sneak and count some weeks (even though they are way popular). Cribbs seemed the best of the $2 options - hopefully he'll blow up a couple times and matter. I chose Burress and Evans at $10 over Lance Moore as I'll admit the injury situation spooked me a tiny bit. The least unique group of mine in the game it appears.
4 TEs - $29
TE - O Daniels $12 25.0%
TE - Hernandez $10 23.6%
TE - F Davis $5 5.2%
TE - E Moore $2 13.4%
I've always tended to run counter to the prevailing wisdom of past seasons that dictated heavy spending. This year seems to have brought the market into line as there is a ton of talent at this position making a solid group affordable. Was mostly doing 3 TEs with various combinations of Daniels/Hernandez/Celek/Gresham/Graham and the occasional Tony Gonzalez. Took a deeper look and saw the potential of Fred Davis (which a number of other
on here seem to have realized and the bargain bin potential of Moore. Stayed away from Winslow who was my seriously unpopular pick last year but more because I think he's just a touch overpriced. Anyhow, this isn't the most unique group either now that I think about it, though I'm curious if I'm the only guy with exactly these 4.
3 PKs - $7
PK - Suisham $3 20.3%
PK - Nugent $2 3.4%
PK - Feely $2 23.9%
I always do the 3 PK thing as you never know with injuries and it's just a safer play all the way around. I'm very much of the kickers are kickers mindset. Suisham is an obvious bargain. Don't really love going on $7 here, would've preferred $8 or $9. Nugent has good range - as long as he stays healthy. He has looked good in preseason so there's hope there. Feely is a good buy at $2 - as long as he can keep the job. That schedule should give him lots a FG chances.
They have 3 different bye weeks which is as important a consideration as anything.
3 TDs - $9
TD - Dallas $4 12.8%
TD - Arizona $3 14.5%
TD - Buffalo $2 12.1%
Again I think this is a position where having 3 guys is an important diversification tactic. They are pretty much the best options at their given price points. They all have different byes which is as important a consideration as anything.
Here's hoping this crew takes me to the promised land!
-QG
3 QBS - $48
QB - Brady $27 9.8% owned
QB - Hasselbeck $11 1.9%
QB - McCoy $10 22.2%
I'm a 3 QB proponent and almost spent even more than the comparatively high $48 until I got scared of how thin my WRs looked. Pretty much was Rivers/Stafford/McCoy in most permutations until the last day when things radically changed. Toyed with Dalton briefly instead of McCoy but just couldn't pull the trigger - I think they'll run way too much. Also looked at some Stafford/Kolb/McCoy scenarios too. Looked over my byes and realized 2 of my studs were off the same week (Rivers/Fitzgerald) and started to tinker as I disliked that a lot. Ended up with Brady who's a bit over priced but will score a ton and it's good to have at least a couple of guys like that IMO. Hasselbeck literally was the last decision I made. I looked through the QBs and really wanted to boost WR. I thought about it, especially with a wide open division, and came to the conclusion that he'd be a decent option (and one likely less owned). That Hasselbeck pick might be what kills me. I think the Pats will have ridiculous passing numbers. It seems the Browns fans are ecstatic about McCoy and frankly that schedule is ridiculous - easy play even though I knew he'd be heavily owned.
6 RBs - $80
RB - ADP $37 8.7%
RB - Benson $17 4.6%
RB - Hightower $14 37.4%
RB - P Thomas $7 15.7%
RB - M Barber $3 13.8%
RB - Redman $2 10.7%
Had 7 for a while - notably your Tate and Howling types at the bottom. ADP is a staple on my teams in this contest it seems - he's still top notch and I really think things will get better after last year's mess. They'll use him more. Benson I figured would be unpopular but he's the bell cow - safe to get a ton of yards and will get the bulk of goal-line carries. He does hurt a little bit in PPR (though it seems the new OC is more inclined to get him in the passing game). Hightower is going to do well in that offense and is a great pass catcher. Between him and Benson I like my RB 2 and feel okay about it on Peterson's week 9 bye. Pierre Thomas (as seen tonight) will get a respectable amount of carries and actually more catches out of the backfield. For $7 he's a good buy. Barber (though now I understand he's hurt) seemed a decent gamble at $3 (and there's some Bear-fan enthusiasm there). Redman is going to get more carries than any of his neighbors in the $2 neighborhood IMO. The soft schedule the Steelers have is also conducive to him getting some garbage-time TDs. He's
if Mendenhall gets hurt. Feel good about this bunch.8 WRs - $77
WR - V Jackson $25 30.3%
WR - S Moss $16 11.5%
WR - Burress $10 13.7%
WR - L Evans $10 18.8%
WR - Burleson $8 30.3%
WR - A Brown $3 30.8%
WR - D Moore $3 26.5%
WR - Cribbs $2 7.2%
I had some permutations that had as many as 10 WRs like many people on here seem to prefer. Josh Morgan was on a lot of these versions for example. The Burress/Evans pairing were my #2 and #3 very late in the process and then I just got scared that I was blowing it and going with too much uncertainty and moved things around to get Santana Moss in the mix. Part of this was switching from Fitzgerald to Vincent Jackson (who is more popular in the contest than I would have expected). With VJax/Moss/Burress/Evans/Burleson I feel like I'll get 3 solid scores every week. Brown and Moore (especially more) have decent potential to sneak and count some weeks (even though they are way popular). Cribbs seemed the best of the $2 options - hopefully he'll blow up a couple times and matter. I chose Burress and Evans at $10 over Lance Moore as I'll admit the injury situation spooked me a tiny bit. The least unique group of mine in the game it appears.
4 TEs - $29
TE - O Daniels $12 25.0%
TE - Hernandez $10 23.6%
TE - F Davis $5 5.2%
TE - E Moore $2 13.4%
I've always tended to run counter to the prevailing wisdom of past seasons that dictated heavy spending. This year seems to have brought the market into line as there is a ton of talent at this position making a solid group affordable. Was mostly doing 3 TEs with various combinations of Daniels/Hernandez/Celek/Gresham/Graham and the occasional Tony Gonzalez. Took a deeper look and saw the potential of Fred Davis (which a number of other
on here seem to have realized and the bargain bin potential of Moore. Stayed away from Winslow who was my seriously unpopular pick last year but more because I think he's just a touch overpriced. Anyhow, this isn't the most unique group either now that I think about it, though I'm curious if I'm the only guy with exactly these 4.3 PKs - $7
PK - Suisham $3 20.3%
PK - Nugent $2 3.4%
PK - Feely $2 23.9%
I always do the 3 PK thing as you never know with injuries and it's just a safer play all the way around. I'm very much of the kickers are kickers mindset. Suisham is an obvious bargain. Don't really love going on $7 here, would've preferred $8 or $9. Nugent has good range - as long as he stays healthy. He has looked good in preseason so there's hope there. Feely is a good buy at $2 - as long as he can keep the job. That schedule should give him lots a FG chances.
They have 3 different bye weeks which is as important a consideration as anything.
3 TDs - $9
TD - Dallas $4 12.8%
TD - Arizona $3 14.5%
TD - Buffalo $2 12.1%
Again I think this is a position where having 3 guys is an important diversification tactic. They are pretty much the best options at their given price points. They all have different byes which is as important a consideration as anything.
Here's hoping this crew takes me to the promised land!
-QG
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jacobo_moses
Footballguy
I have Jordy Nelson and Jimmy Graham on my team. Pretty happy about that.
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
I went with 30 of the most unoriginal players in this contest. Here are my guys who are under 10% owned.
QB: Brady 9.8% (2 total QBs)
RB: Taiwan Jones 4.0% (9 total RBs....my other 8 are all in the top 16 owned)
WR: Harry Douglas 9.2 %, Brandon Lloyd 8.2%, Earl Bennett 5.9%, Braylon Edwards 5.6%
(9 total WRs)
TE: 0 (I picked 4 out of the top five owned)
K: Connor Barth 3.5% (3 total kickers....including the top two owned)
DEF: New England Patriots 6.9% (3 total def)
22 out of the 30 players I picked are over 10% ownership. And I don't really see a differance maker outside of Brady. This team is poised to make a deep run, but fizzle out by week 12.
My only hope is for a few popular players to have a horrible first 8 games and hope that my depth of 30 gets me through.
****I need to spend less time in this forum before the contest starts to help get a more unique team****
QB: Brady 9.8% (2 total QBs)
RB: Taiwan Jones 4.0% (9 total RBs....my other 8 are all in the top 16 owned)
WR: Harry Douglas 9.2 %, Brandon Lloyd 8.2%, Earl Bennett 5.9%, Braylon Edwards 5.6%
(9 total WRs)
TE: 0 (I picked 4 out of the top five owned)
K: Connor Barth 3.5% (3 total kickers....including the top two owned)
DEF: New England Patriots 6.9% (3 total def)
22 out of the 30 players I picked are over 10% ownership. And I don't really see a differance maker outside of Brady. This team is poised to make a deep run, but fizzle out by week 12.
My only hope is for a few popular players to have a horrible first 8 games and hope that my depth of 30 gets me through.
****I need to spend less time in this forum before the contest starts to help get a more unique team****
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
Am I correct in the thinking that a unique team has a better chance at winning it all if it can make it to the final 250?
And a team that is not unique has a better chance to make it deep in the contest, but less of a chance to win it all?
And a team that is not unique has a better chance to make it deep in the contest, but less of a chance to win it all?
CalBear
Footballguy
Not really.
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HairySasquatch
Footballguy
So what kind of team would be optimal? Finding the players that are going to have top ten years at their position no matter what % of ownership those players have? Then finding a couple unique players that will separate your team from the herd?
CalBear
Footballguy
The optimal team will survive to the final 250, and score the most points in the finals. To survive to the final 250, you need consistent scoring. To score the most points in the finals, you need high scoring. Uniqueness is not a major factor in either case.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Not a major factor, like value, but still a factor. How small of a factor is the debate. Some like uniqueness more than others.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Thanks for this post Iggy. The numbers that jump out the most to me are the extremely large percentage of RBs on bye week 5. I fully expected this from the posts before the lock, but this confirms it.Other interesting numbers:- 3859 entries with TE1 with bye week 11, around double the number of any other week.- 3962 entries with WR1 with bye week 6, around triple the number of any other week.
CalBear
Footballguy
If you look at your top five players, they will be unique, or at most one or two other people will have them. When you consider the entirety of a 30-person roster (because of course you're using 30 people, right?) you have to figure that the likelihood that your roster is meaningfully tied to anyone else's is infinitesimally small.Think about it this way: Player A is widely held (on 35% of teams). Is it better for you to have him or not to have him? It seems obvious that the answer depends on how many points Player A scores. If he's an above-average scorer, you want him on your team, because otherwise you'll be fighting against a large number of teams whenever he scores well. If he's a below-average scorer, you don't want him on your team, because you'll be able to use that roster spot to your advantage over all the teams who are stuck with an unproductive player.You want players who score points.
wollac
Footballguy
No comments needed, you are staring at perfection:
Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Philip Rivers $24 0.00 bye Matthew Stafford $18 0.00 bye Mark Sanchez $14 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Felix Jones $23 0.00 bye Reggie Bush $15 0.00 bye Pierre Thomas $7 0.00 bye Jerome Harrison $5 0.00 bye Marion Barber $3 0.00 bye LaRod Stephens-Howling $2 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Vincent Jackson $25 0.00 bye Dez Bryant $21 0.00 bye Lance Moore $10 0.00 bye Nate Burleson $8 0.00 bye Malcom Floyd $8 0.00 bye Mohamed Massaquoi $4 0.00 bye Denarius Moore $3 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Owen Daniels $12 0.00 bye Aaron Hernandez $10 0.00 bye Lance Kendricks $6 0.00 bye Fred Davis $5 0.00 bye Evan Moore $2 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Nick Folk $3 0.00 bye Lawrence Tynes $3 0.00 bye Shaun Suisham $3 0.00 bye Olindo Mare $2 0.00 bye Jay Feely $2 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Dallas Cowboys $4 0.00 bye Carolina Panthers $3 0.00 bye Arizona Cardinals $3 0.00 bye Buffalo Bills $2 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Touchdown There
Footballguy
Everyone likes points, but uniqueness never hurts.
massraider
Footballguy
I feel like when you down to 250, the guy that walks away with the 20 grand can point to his kickers and defenses as the difference.
Either that, or the $3 player that didn't do diddly all year, and blows up for just a couple of teams the last month of the season.
Either that, or the $3 player that didn't do diddly all year, and blows up for just a couple of teams the last month of the season.
therokie0070
Footballguy
Well every year I only take one top RB and WR and then try to find diamonds in the rough, well I consistently make it to week 12-13 and miss the cut so this year I decided to go with the Dream team and hope I hit a homerun!!!
Philip Rivers $24
Colt McCoy $10
Ray Rice $35
LeSean McCoy $34
Chris Wells $16
Andre Johnson $33
Hakeem Nicks $29
Vincent Jackson $25
Nate Burleson $8
Dexter McCluster $2
Owen Daniels $12
Lance Kendricks $6
Nick Folk $3
Shaun Suisham $3
Jay Feely $2
Houston Texans $3
Arizona Cardinals $3
Jacksonville Jaguars $2
Philip Rivers $24
Colt McCoy $10
Ray Rice $35
LeSean McCoy $34
Chris Wells $16
Andre Johnson $33
Hakeem Nicks $29
Vincent Jackson $25
Nate Burleson $8
Dexter McCluster $2
Owen Daniels $12
Lance Kendricks $6
Nick Folk $3
Shaun Suisham $3
Jay Feely $2
Houston Texans $3
Arizona Cardinals $3
Jacksonville Jaguars $2
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
CalBear's right. Points >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> uniqueness.The fact is that there are like a quadrillion possible legal rosters in this contest, and only 10,000 entries. Every one of them is unique. That's why every year this thread is full of posts like, "I'm the only person who owns W, X, Y, and Z!" Everyone's unique if you look at just their top 8-10 players, not to mention the rest of their depth.You want the players that you think will score the most points. You shouldn't worry about how many others own that player.Everyone likes points, but uniqueness never hurts.
pocketducks
Footballguy
Thanks Jayrod for the slight boost in confidence. Hopefully this will be a good year. On a side note maybe I should have picked up more Packers and Saints.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
ool, looking at uniqueness of teams in this contest. Of course none of the 10,776 entries are exactly the same, but I did find these two pairs of teams that differed by only one player. I'm assuming they are the same guy, submitting two different entries?
Code:
Entry # 101157 Entry # 106098Ben Roethlisberger Ben RoethlisbergerMatthew Stafford Matthew StaffordFelix Jones Felix JonesCedric Benson Cedric BensonChris Wells Chris WellsTim Hightower Tim HightowerDeji Karim Deji KarimMarion Barber Marion BarberIsaac Redman Isaac RedmanMike Wallace Mike WallaceLee Evans Lee EvansNate Burleson Nate BurlesonBernard Berrian Bernard BerrianNate Washington Nate WashingtonHarry Douglas Harry DouglasDevery Henderson Devery HendersonAntonio Brown Antonio BrownDenarius Moore Denarius MooreDexter McCluster Dexter McClusterMichael Jenkins Michael JenkinsJermichael Finley Jermichael FinleyOwen Daniels Owen DanielsLance Kendricks Lance KendricksJay Feely Evan MooreMatt Bryant Matt BryantJosh Brown Josh BrownShaun Suisham Shaun SuishamMinnesota Vikings Minnesota VikingsArizona Cardinals Arizona CardinalsWashington Redskins Washington Redskins
Code:
Entry # 102140 Entry # 102150Eli Manning Eli ManningMatthew Stafford Matthew StaffordMark Sanchez Mark SanchezMark Ingram Mark IngramLeGarrette Blount LeGarrette BlountFelix Jones Felix JonesDelone Carter Delone CarterPierre Thomas Pierre ThomasJerome Harrison Jerome HarrisonBen Tate Ben TateSantana Moss Santana MossMike Sims-Walker Mike Sims-WalkerNate Burleson Nate BurlesonEarl Bennett Earl BennettBernard Berrian Bernard BerrianHarry Douglas Devery HendersonAntonio Brown Antonio BrownRandall Cobb Randall CobbDenarius Moore Denarius MooreAaron Hernandez Aaron HernandezLance Kendricks Lance KendricksEvan Moore Evan MooreMatt Bryant Matt BryantNick Folk Nick FolkRyan Longwell Ryan LongwellJay Feely Jay FeelySt. Louis Rams St. Louis RamsBuffalo Bills Buffalo BillsDenver Broncos Denver Broncospocketducks
Footballguy
1. I agree that Spiller has talent but I'm not sure if he'll get the opportunity behind FJax and besides their OL is terrible. Also, Johnny White is a really talented RB and might challenge Spiller for carries later in the year. 2. Starks could be a great value this year and looked good in this game but it is still 50/50 split with Grant this year. Starks looks great running but needs help picking up the blitz. Did you see that sack on Rodgers up the middle when Starks whiffed on his block? Also if the Packers were so sold on Starks why would they use such a high draft pick on Alex Green? Don't get me wrong I like Starks's talent and think long term he'll be the guy. Just not this year.
3. Harrison, Hardesty, and Tate are all lotto tickets dependent on the incumbent RB getting hurt.
4. By the end of the year I think Ingram will be the real deal. I'd have to see it first from Mathews to believe it.
Last year before the first week everyone knew that Foster was going to be the starting RB in Houston and be good (not necessarily the best fantasy RB in the league by far) for only $13. I didn't really see any bonafide RB starters who have top ten upside for $13 or less this year. (Wells and Hightower are close). That is all that I meant.
Good luck! Wish I had taken more Packers and Saints this year.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Just noticed that # 106098 is a staff entry, and # 101157 isn't. Could this really have been two different people who submitted practically the exact same 30-man roster? Did a staffer pay to get his own real entry in the contest? I wonder if Drinen could confirm whether or not these entries were submitted by two different people, or if it's some kind of staffer experiment or something. I find it almost impossible to believe that two different people would submit 30-man entries that are almost exactly the same.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I don't think so.
I thought about copying one of the teams posted in here just to mess with someone.
Yes. This is because a staffer was logged in as a user to help with troubleshooting. I'll get it sorted out tonight or tomorrow and let you know what the exact deal was.
Not sure I agree that it is a factor. Uniqueness is what will seperate the winner from the Top 5 or 10 teams. At that point, I'd imagine the top 10 teams or so will have a fairly significant commonness between them, the difference between winning and coming in 10th between this group will be those whose unique players score best. But each of those teams will have their own uniqueness, so it's not the uniqueness that sets them apart, its the fact that their unique player outperformed the other teams unique players.
I really like my QB combo of Rivers/Ryan and especially their schedule down the stretch.
Week 12 Ryan vs Minny / Rivers vs Denver
Week 13 Ryan @ Hou / Rivers @ Jack
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Week 14 Ryan @ CAR / Rivers vs Buff
Week 15 Ryan vs Jack / Rivers vs Balt
Week 16 Ryan @ NO / Rivers @ Detriot
Hopefully I can make it that far though, but if I can I like this combo for the 6 pts per TD pass
Week 12 Ryan vs Minny / Rivers vs Denver
Week 13 Ryan @ Hou / Rivers @ Jack
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Week 14 Ryan @ CAR / Rivers vs Buff
Week 15 Ryan vs Jack / Rivers vs Balt
Week 16 Ryan @ NO / Rivers @ Detriot
Hopefully I can make it that far though, but if I can I like this combo for the 6 pts per TD pass
pocketducks
Footballguy
Yeah I agree. It was one of the reasons I also went Ryan (over Bradford) and Rivers.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Have you guys seen Brady's playoff schedule? @WAS, @DEN, MIA looks nice as long as the weather is decent.
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
Actually having players have big weeks when no one will be cut is a bad thing. Unless of course your player predictions for the year were wrong. If your predictions were right or with in reason, then if a player scored X of his Y points already in week 1, he will only be getting Z (Y-X) more points the rest of the year. Which split over 15 games instead of 16 now, is a smaller number per game. So a bigger chance for more dud weeks, which are the killers in this contest.Personally I'd love for my guys to not score any Tds this week, so long as they are participants in their offenses. Having other players I don't own do the scoring and be the offensive plan focus for this week works for me, since then my guys will be the offensive focuses in future weeks and get their Tds in future weeks, when I'll need their points to make the cut.I have Rodgers and Nelson.
CalBear
Footballguy
This is fallacious. Whether Aaron Rodgers scored 10 points or 30 points in week 1 has no relation to how many points he's likely to score the rest of the year. And in Nelson's case, it certainly looks like the week 1 performance is indicative of greater things for him to come.'WisWolvrns said:
I was reviewing my entry and just found out I selected Devin Aromashodu instead of Danny Amendola. Opps.
If anyone is interested, below is my full roster. I am big believer in 30 man rosters and I ended up with nearly all the highly owned players.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marvelous
This entry is still alive.
Philip Rivers $24
Colt McCoy $10
Rex Grossman $8
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Peyton Hillis $27
Chris Wells $16
Reggie Bush $15
Tim Hightower $14
Pierre Thomas $7
Derrick Ward $3
Marion Barber $3
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Santana Moss $16
Lance Moore $10
Andre Roberts $9
Nate Burleson $8
Malcom Floyd $8
Devin Aromashodu $7
Devin Hester $7
Brian Robiskie $6
Antonio Brown $3
Denarius Moore $3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owen Daniels $12
Aaron Hernandez $10
Fred Davis $5
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Lawrence Tynes $3
Shaun Suisham $3
Jay Feely $2
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Cleveland Browns $3
Arizona Cardinals $3
Buffalo Bills $2
If anyone is interested, below is my full roster. I am big believer in 30 man rosters and I ended up with nearly all the highly owned players.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marvelous
This entry is still alive.
Philip Rivers $24
Colt McCoy $10
Rex Grossman $8
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Peyton Hillis $27
Chris Wells $16
Reggie Bush $15
Tim Hightower $14
Pierre Thomas $7
Derrick Ward $3
Marion Barber $3
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Santana Moss $16
Lance Moore $10
Andre Roberts $9
Nate Burleson $8
Malcom Floyd $8
Devin Aromashodu $7
Devin Hester $7
Brian Robiskie $6
Antonio Brown $3
Denarius Moore $3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owen Daniels $12
Aaron Hernandez $10
Fred Davis $5
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Lawrence Tynes $3
Shaun Suisham $3
Jay Feely $2
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Cleveland Browns $3
Arizona Cardinals $3
Buffalo Bills $2
Last edited by a moderator:
pocketducks
Footballguy
Which is another reason why I got Welker and Hernandez hoping for big production then.'Jayrod said:
Sure it can. You could have had a unique roster by excluding Foster last year. That would have hurt.'Velveeta22 said:Everyone likes points, but uniqueness never hurts.
You guys have an interesting take on games that will produce big points. Generally I'm not a fan of having players (especially WRs and QBs) in games that are decided by halftime or against against teams that don't push them to score and extra TD or two.Which is another reason why I got Welker and Hernandez hoping for big production then.'Jayrod said:
apalmer
Footballguy
Yeah, it's not like the Pats would ever run up the score in a game they have under control.You guys have an interesting take on games that will produce big points. Generally I'm not a fan of having players (especially WRs and QBs) in games that are decided by halftime or against against teams that don't push them to score and extra TD or two.Which is another reason why I got Welker and Hernandez hoping for big production then.'Jayrod said:
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Then you would be giving up points and uniqueness. My statement was in regards to two players of the same caliber.Sure it can. You could have had a unique roster by excluding Foster last year. That would have hurt.'Velveeta22 said:Everyone likes points, but uniqueness never hurts.
PatsChowder
Footballguy
I even tried to stay off of the boards during this preseason to try and avoid being swayed... I ended up with A TON of the popular picks.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Philip Rivers $24 0.00 bye
Colt McCoy $10 0.00 bye
I had Rivers and Ryan, but I have always tended to go with the two high profile QBs and only made it to the final 500 once. This year, I put all my eggs in the Rivers basket and I used the money at RB.
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LeGarrette Blount $25 0.00 bye
Steven Jackson $25 0.00 bye
Chris Wells $16 0.00 bye
Willis McGahee $11 0.00 bye
Pierre Thomas $7 0.00 bye
Marion Barber $3 0.00 bye
This is the first year I actually spent some "real" money here. I Had Brandon Jacobs in for the longest time, before upgrading to Blount. McGahee and Thomas were on the roster from Day 1.
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Santana Moss $16 0.00 bye
Lance Moore $10 0.00 bye
Braylon Edwards $9 0.00 bye
Nate Burleson $8 0.00 bye
Danny Amendola $8 0.00 bye
Malcom Floyd $8 0.00 bye
Jordy Nelson $7 0.00 bye
Harry Douglas $4 0.00 bye
Antonio Brown $3 0.00 bye
Denarius Moore $3 0.00 bye
I always seem to run short on depth here, so I loaded up on the middle range players. Edwards and Nelson were late adds as I combined a few of my cheaper guys to bring in more consistent depth. Unfortunately, it took my roster from 30 to 28, but I do like what I have better.
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Owen Daniels $12 0.00 bye
Aaron Hernandez $10 0.00 bye
Greg Olsen $9 0.00 bye
Lance Kendricks $6 0.00 bye
I changed out Brandon Pettigrew for Olsen at the last minute as well... and I end up owning the top 4 tight ends. Ridiculous. Hernandez is a crazy steal at $10
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Rob Bironas $3 0.00 bye
Olindo Mare $2 0.00 bye
Phil Dawson $2 0.00 bye
The cheap kickers... Bironas is the first kicker I have ever spent more than $2 on. I'm honestly shocked he was only $3.
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St. Louis Rams $3 0.00 bye
Carolina Panthers $3 0.00 bye
Arizona Cardinals $3 0.00 bye
Three cheap defenses. I kind of regret "upgrading" from Denver. We'll see.
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Philip Rivers $24 0.00 bye
Colt McCoy $10 0.00 bye
I had Rivers and Ryan, but I have always tended to go with the two high profile QBs and only made it to the final 500 once. This year, I put all my eggs in the Rivers basket and I used the money at RB.
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LeGarrette Blount $25 0.00 bye
Steven Jackson $25 0.00 bye
Chris Wells $16 0.00 bye
Willis McGahee $11 0.00 bye
Pierre Thomas $7 0.00 bye
Marion Barber $3 0.00 bye
This is the first year I actually spent some "real" money here. I Had Brandon Jacobs in for the longest time, before upgrading to Blount. McGahee and Thomas were on the roster from Day 1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Santana Moss $16 0.00 bye
Lance Moore $10 0.00 bye
Braylon Edwards $9 0.00 bye
Nate Burleson $8 0.00 bye
Danny Amendola $8 0.00 bye
Malcom Floyd $8 0.00 bye
Jordy Nelson $7 0.00 bye
Harry Douglas $4 0.00 bye
Antonio Brown $3 0.00 bye
Denarius Moore $3 0.00 bye
I always seem to run short on depth here, so I loaded up on the middle range players. Edwards and Nelson were late adds as I combined a few of my cheaper guys to bring in more consistent depth. Unfortunately, it took my roster from 30 to 28, but I do like what I have better.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owen Daniels $12 0.00 bye
Aaron Hernandez $10 0.00 bye
Greg Olsen $9 0.00 bye
Lance Kendricks $6 0.00 bye
I changed out Brandon Pettigrew for Olsen at the last minute as well... and I end up owning the top 4 tight ends. Ridiculous. Hernandez is a crazy steal at $10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rob Bironas $3 0.00 bye
Olindo Mare $2 0.00 bye
Phil Dawson $2 0.00 bye
The cheap kickers... Bironas is the first kicker I have ever spent more than $2 on. I'm honestly shocked he was only $3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
St. Louis Rams $3 0.00 bye
Carolina Panthers $3 0.00 bye
Arizona Cardinals $3 0.00 bye
Three cheap defenses. I kind of regret "upgrading" from Denver. We'll see.
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massraider
Footballguy
What was the page on the main site where you could plug in players, and see how many teams had certain combinations? That was VERY cool, you could see who had Rodgers, Foster, and a certain kicker, or defense, or whatever.
by the way, once we have all these links, they should go in the OP. The fantasy star thing, all of Drinen's links, etc.
by the way, once we have all these links, they should go in the OP. The fantasy star thing, all of Drinen's links, etc.
PatsChowder
Footballguy
I was just looking for that tool myself. With so many commonly owned players, I am hoping that I have a few unique combos (River-Blount-SJax specifically).
104 teams have that combination
Touchdown There
Footballguy
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/contest_querier_form.php
Not loaded with the 2011 database yet.
Not loaded with the 2011 database yet.
