***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)

[drater]

One of 8 teams to score exactly 204.3 points, not sure whether to take that as a good or bad sign. I'm assuming chances are good that if we had that exact score, we had the same best players. Or not...n00b to this contest, damn fun though!

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

One of 8 teams to score exactly 204.3 points, not sure whether to take that as a good or bad sign. I'm assuming chances are good that if we had that exact score, we had the same best players. Or not...n00b to this contest, damn fun though!

You didn't all have the same best players. You can click right on each team to view their roster.

 

[domvin]

Holding steady. The Nelson Combo may very well save me.

Matthew Stafford $18 32.25 37.80

Kevin Kolb $15 27.35 23.55

Ryan Fitzpatrick $13 34.70 32.50

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James Starks $16 11.70 13.00

Mike Tolbert $15 31.80 12.30

Willis McGahee $11 6.00 17.10

Kendall Hunter $6 0.40 0.00

Deji Karim $3 8.70 3.00

Ben Tate $3 17.60 15.50

Derrick Ward $3 9.90 0.00

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00 0.40

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Vincent Jackson $25 5.10 39.20

Dez Bryant $21 16.10 0.00

Mario Manningham $19 8.90 8.60

Lance Moore $10 0.00 1.60

Jordy Nelson $7 19.70 15.40

Jordan Shipley $4 0.90 4.50

David Nelson $4 10.60 24.30

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Jimmy Graham $15 17.60 16.90

Lance Kendricks $6 3.30 4.10

Fred Davis $5 18.00 23.60

Evan Moore $2 14.00 9.10

Delanie Walker $2 1.40 12.80

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Mason Crosby $6 6.00 14.00

Billy Cundiff $4 10.00 9.00

Jason Hanson $4 9.00 15.00

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Dallas Cowboys $4 8.00 8.00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers $4 8.00 4.00

Houston Texans $3 13.00 6.00

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TOTAL 189.10 212.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CUTOFF 0.00 138.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 

[Ministry of Pain]

wk 1-156

wk2-153

Biggest duds so far on my roster are Chris Johnson and Lee Evans, Mario Manningham, and Julio Jones...hoping some of these guys start producing or I'm not gonna last much longer. Just cracked inside the 9,000 mark this week.

GL everyone

 

[gandalas]

218.20 this week, although losing Shipley and Aaron Hernandez will hurt.

 

[eefflrat]

First year doing this:

181 week 1 190 week 2....Still not sure how this works. McCluster could be quite nice as a wr. Went against my better judgement with Moreno.

Matt Ryan $21 14.95 32.35 bye

Chad Henne $8 43.70 16.10 bye

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Adrian Peterson $37 11.40 27.10 bye

Knowshon Moreno $18 6.70 0.00 bye

Chris Wells $16 18.20 15.30 bye

Tim Hightower $14 17.20 11.10 bye

Bernard Scott $9 0.30 1.00 bye

Ben Tate $3 17.60 15.50 bye

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Larry Fitzgerald $28 9.20 26.30 bye

Brandon Marshall $24 20.90 19.90 bye

Steve Johnson $19 16.60 23.60 bye

Julio Jones $17 12.10 4.90 bye

Dexter McCluster $2 11.70 8.90 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $15 17.60 16.90 bye

Lance Kendricks $6 3.30 4.10 bye

Evan Moore $2 14.00 9.10 bye

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Dan Carpenter $3 6.00 10.00 bye

Jay Feely $2 4.00 3.00 bye

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Minnesota Vikings $4 12.00 4.00 bye

Denver Broncos $2 9.00 2.00

 

[Irish Chaos]

barely escaped this week with 147, anyone not as fortunate in here?

 

[Modog814]

This is for only teams that are still alive

Team SizeData	Wk 1	Wk 2	Total         Over60018	Avg	 165.77  180.32	 347.23 	2.34%	St.Dev	 21.72 	 22.24 	 32.50 	19	Avg	 166.52  180.89	 348.42 	2.46%	St.Dev	 21.00 	 22.52 	 32.13 	20	Avg	 167.74  182.87  351.38 	3.23%	St.Dev	 20.95 	 21.83 	 32.22 	21	Avg	 168.44  184.45	 353.69 	4.26%	St.Dev	 20.28 	 22.70 	 32.96 	22	Avg	 168.31  183.86	 352.75 	4.00%	St.Dev	 19.36 	 22.80 	 33.05 	23	Avg	 168.20  184.03  353.09 	3.40%	St.Dev	 19.59 	 22.12 	 31.49 	24	Avg	 169.81  184.20  355.27 	3.98%	St.Dev	 20.16 	 22.14 	 31.25 	25	Avg	 169.99  183.74  354.79 	3.73%	St.Dev	 19.17 	 21.98 	 31.06 	26	Avg	 170.50  183.13  354.25 	2.66%	St.Dev	 17.83 	 20.78 	 28.99 	27	Avg	 170.22  186.02	 357.98 	4.17%	St.Dev	 18.93 	 21.39 	 29.73 	28	Avg	 169.86  180.49	 351.24 	2.15%	St.Dev	 17.56 	 21.42 	 29.51 	29	Avg	 171.67  182.55	 355.39 	3.42%	St.Dev	 17.51 	 21.16 	 29.99 	30	Avg	 171.52  181.65	 354.49 	2.62%	St.Dev	 17.68 	 20.18 	 28.75 	Total Average	167.67 	 182.14	 350.84 	3.00%Total StdDev	20.54 	 22.16 	 32.02

 

[belljr]

lol my shortest stint in the contest ever. totall forgot about it an did it last minute in a rush.. boy did it show

 

[pocketducks]

138.85 seems like a high cutoff.

For those who have played before is this about the same cutoff we'll see until the bye weeks?

 

[Jayrod]

This is for only teams that are still alive

Team SizeData	Wk 1	Wk 2	Total         Over60018	Avg	 165.77  180.32	 347.23 	2.34%	St.Dev	 21.72 	 22.24 	 32.50 	19	Avg	 166.52  180.89	 348.42 	2.46%	St.Dev	 21.00 	 22.52 	 32.13 	20	Avg	 167.74  182.87  351.38 	3.23%	St.Dev	 20.95 	 21.83 	 32.22 	21	Avg	 168.44  184.45	 353.69 	4.26%	St.Dev	 20.28 	 22.70 	 32.96 	22	Avg	 168.31  183.86	 352.75 	4.00%	St.Dev	 19.36 	 22.80 	 33.05 	23	Avg	 168.20  184.03  353.09 	3.40%	St.Dev	 19.59 	 22.12 	 31.49 	24	Avg	 169.81  184.20  355.27 	3.98%	St.Dev	 20.16 	 22.14 	 31.25 	25	Avg	 169.99  183.74  354.79 	3.73%	St.Dev	 19.17 	 21.98 	 31.06 	26	Avg	 170.50  183.13  354.25 	2.66%	St.Dev	 17.83 	 20.78 	 28.99 	27	Avg	 170.22  186.02	 357.98 	4.17%	St.Dev	 18.93 	 21.39 	 29.73 	28	Avg	 169.86  180.49	 351.24 	2.15%	St.Dev	 17.56 	 21.42 	 29.51 	29	Avg	 171.67  182.55	 355.39 	3.42%	St.Dev	 17.51 	 21.16 	 29.99 	30	Avg	 171.52  181.65	 354.49 	2.62%	St.Dev	 17.68 	 20.18 	 28.75 	Total Average	167.67 	 182.14	 350.84 	3.00%Total StdDev	20.54 	 22.16 	 32.02

What is "Over 600"? Do you mean over 400 (avg > 200 per week)?

 

[Modog814]

138.85 seems like a high cutoff. For those who have played before is this about the same cutoff we'll see until the bye weeks?

It'll creep a little higher until we hit the bye weeks, where it should drop sharply. My initial guess is that it'll be mid-140's this week, maybe low 150's.

 

[Modog814]

What is "Over 600"? Do you mean over 400 (avg > 200 per week)?

Sorry, "Over 600" is probability that a random team in that roster size will score over 600 in 3 weeks. It's based on the Total Avg and St. Dev. So basically is projects the 2 weeks avg/var into a 3 week avg/var and then calculated the chance of hitting 600+.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

138.85 seems like a high cutoff. For those who have played before is this about the same cutoff we'll see until the bye weeks?

You know, I was going to post that this was an unusually high cutoff for week 2, but it turns out it wasn't:

Year	Wk 2 Cut2007	128.302008	132.602009	130.042010	141.75

It'll probably hover in this vicinity until week 5, then dip during the bye weeks, and then climb for the rest of the season.

 

[cdubz]

This is for only teams that are still alive

Team SizeData	Wk 1	Wk 2	Total         Over60018	Avg	 165.77  180.32	 347.23 	2.34%	St.Dev	 21.72 	 22.24 	 32.50 	19	Avg	 166.52  180.89	 348.42 	2.46%	St.Dev	 21.00 	 22.52 	 32.13 	20	Avg	 167.74  182.87  351.38 	3.23%	St.Dev	 20.95 	 21.83 	 32.22 	21	Avg	 168.44  184.45	 353.69 	4.26%	St.Dev	 20.28 	 22.70 	 32.96 	22	Avg	 168.31  183.86	 352.75 	4.00%	St.Dev	 19.36 	 22.80 	 33.05 	23	Avg	 168.20  184.03  353.09 	3.40%	St.Dev	 19.59 	 22.12 	 31.49 	24	Avg	 169.81  184.20  355.27 	3.98%	St.Dev	 20.16 	 22.14 	 31.25 	25	Avg	 169.99  183.74  354.79 	3.73%	St.Dev	 19.17 	 21.98 	 31.06 	26	Avg	 170.50  183.13  354.25 	2.66%	St.Dev	 17.83 	 20.78 	 28.99 	27	Avg	 170.22  186.02	 357.98 	4.17%	St.Dev	 18.93 	 21.39 	 29.73 	28	Avg	 169.86  180.49	 351.24 	2.15%	St.Dev	 17.56 	 21.42 	 29.51 	29	Avg	 171.67  182.55	 355.39 	3.42%	St.Dev	 17.51 	 21.16 	 29.99 	30	Avg	 171.52  181.65	 354.49 	2.62%	St.Dev	 17.68 	 20.18 	 28.75 	Total Average	167.67 	 182.14	 350.84 	3.00%Total StdDev	20.54 	 22.16 	 32.02

Wow! Just doing a linear regression on average score vs. roster size, # of players is able to explain 48.5% of the variation. One potential problem here is that this might reflect the impact of junk rosters. Would rosters of 18 be more likely to be junk than larger rosters? The effect isn't steadily increasing as it seems the jump in average score occurs at 24 players; so probably some diminishing returns above that point (at least so far).

 

[Worm]

Any kickerguys left?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Would rosters of 18 be more likely to be junk than larger rosters?

I think we all pretty much agreed that this was the case last year. The question is how long it takes to weed out all the "junk" entries. In my opinion, it takes until week 13 or so.

The effect isn't steadily increasing as it seems the jump in average score occurs at 24 players; so probably some diminishing returns above that point (at least so far).

I think the sweet spot for roster size is probably in the mid- to high-20s, so this makes sense.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Any kickerguys left?

Entry #	Kickers	Alive?106532	20	Y104301	18	N110566	18	Y109520	15	Y102238	15	Y108288	15	N102670	14	N108699	13	N110096	13	Y101223	13	N108547	12	N101828	12	N109629	11	Y102083	11	N109402	10	Y101071	10	Y101154	10	N

 

[texasheat]

20 kickers is clearly the way to go

 

[Jayrod]

Would rosters of 18 be more likely to be junk than larger rosters?

I think we all pretty much agreed that this was the case last year. The question is how long it takes to weed out all the "junk" entries. In my opinion, it takes until week 13 or so.

I'd say it would be through the bye weeks, so after week 11.This guy will likely be eliminated that week.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

 

[BassNBrew]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

Shouldn't even be a debate anymore. Any Brady plus one owner is going to be at a significant advantage versus any Brady plus two owner.

 

[Modog814]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

Iggy, any chance you can add average points scored (only the ones that counted) to this?

 

[Modog814]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

Shouldn't even be a debate anymore. Any Brady plus one owner is going to be at a significant advantage versus any Brady plus two owner.

Unless of course Brady gets hurt, then the Brady + 2 owner has a significant advantage.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

Shouldn't even be a debate anymore. Any Brady plus one owner is going to be at a significant advantage versus any Brady plus two owner.

If Brady is a stud every single week, then sure. But he might not be, and at the very least he has a bye week you have to contend with. Also, I think the debate is less like, "I have Tom Brady, should I have one backup or two?" and more like, "Should I take Brady and one backup, or should I take three cheaper QBs?"FTR I fall squarely on the 2 QB side of the debate, but I think it's a debatable point.

 

[pocketducks]

Bad News: Roscoe Parrish was just placed on Bills IR due to ankle injury. :( So he joins Jamaal Charles and Nate Kaeding out for the year.

However, no team had all three on their roster.

 

[butcher boy]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

Shouldn't even be a debate anymore. Any Brady plus one owner is going to be at a significant advantage versus any Brady plus two owner.

Unless of course Brady gets hurt, then the Brady + 2 owner has a significant advantage.

It comes down to taking 2 QBs and taking that extra risk to get further in the contest. Taking 3 QBs as insurance in case of injury is like being on the 1 yard line and kicking the field goal on 4th and 1. Taking just 2 QBs is the equivalent of going for the QB Sneak.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Iggy, any chance you can add average points scored (only the ones that counted) to this?

QBs	Count	AvQBScore	AvTotScore1	223	29.94	167.452	6523	32.42	174.733	3455	33.17	171.674	465	33.99	166.135+	109	35.22	151.48

 

[Robbie Cooper]

138.85 seems like a high cutoff. For those who have played before is this about the same cutoff we'll see until the bye weeks?

Last year's first three week cuts:Week 1: 125.9Week 2: 141.75Week 3: 145.0

 

[pocketducks]

Bad News: Roscoe Parrish was just placed on Bills IR due to ankle injury. :( So he joins Jamaal Charles and Nate Kaeding out for the year.However, no team had all three on their roster.

Also forgot to add that Jordan Shipley is out for the year.

 

[eaglezzz]

Bad News: Roscoe Parrish was just placed on Bills IR due to ankle injury. :( So he joins Jamaal Charles and Nate Kaeding out for the year.However, no team had all three on their roster.

I took a chance on Parrish for $2 = didn't work out I guess I should have spent a few more bucks and went with Nelson

 

[jdoggydogg]

I had Ben Tate on my roster for several iterations and decided to go with Marion Barber instead

 

[levinakl]

I took a chance on Parrish for $2

Add me to that list, but with 29 other guys still going, I think I'm ok.....now if Rivers went down, then I'd be in serious trouble (only went with him and McCoy this year as a bit of a gamble)

 

[D.J.]

wow, good week for me. I have vjax, decker, and moore. Hopefully decker and moore continue to be good (if not great). I spent most of my money on rb, also looking good with forte and mcfadden. I also grabbed tate, that should help for another week or so, unless fosters hammy lingers, then it could be gold.

 

[Jayrod]

wow, good week for me. I have vjax, decker, and moore. Hopefully decker and moore continue to be good (if not great). I spent most of my money on rb, also looking good with forte and mcfadden. I also grabbed tate, that should help for another week or so, unless fosters hammy lingers, then it could be gold.

I really like your team...as long as you can survive week 8 (only 2 RB's & 4 WR's not on bye that week)

 

[eaglezzz]

Went with 11 WR's last year and learned that it was over kill. Well this year I went with 8 and now I am feeling I don't have enough.

Fitzgerald $28

V. Jackson $25

D. Bryant $21 (Might have nagging injuries all year long)

Amendola $8 (Nasty looking injury - could be back soon though)

A. Brown $3

D. Moore $3

McCluster $2

Parrish $2 (Out For the Year)

I actually contemplated taking Nelson/Decker/Burleson instead of Bryant but went with the big gun instead.... time will tell I guess

 

[omally]

Went with 11 WR's last year and learned that it was over kill. Well this year I went with 8 and now I am feeling I don't have enough.Fitzgerald $28V. Jackson $25D. Bryant $21 (Might have nagging injuries all year long)Amendola $8 (Nasty looking injury - could be back soon though)A. Brown $3D. Moore $3McCluster $2Parrish $2 (Out For the Year)I actually contemplated taking Nelson/Decker/Burleson instead of Bryant but went with the big gun instead.... time will tell I guess

Fitz, Jackson, and McCluster have the same bye, so hopefully you'll have Amendola back by then and Bryant will be healthy.

 

[gamera]

226.8

Probably doomed.

 

[ajm27501]

226.8 Probably doomed.

126.95Definitely doomed

 

[HALtheCOW]

I think we did this last year, but we can keep an eye on the 2 vs. 3 QB debate again this season:

# QBs	Count	Alive	Surv%1	223	200	89.7%2	6523	6175	94.7%3	3455	3170	91.8%4	465	402	86.5%5+	109	76	69.7%

Shouldn't even be a debate anymore. Any Brady plus one owner is going to be at a significant advantage versus any Brady plus two owner.

Unless of course Brady gets hurt, then the Brady + 2 owner has a significant advantage.

It comes down to taking 2 QBs and taking that extra risk to get further in the contest. Taking 3 QBs as insurance in case of injury is like being on the 1 yard line and kicking the field goal on 4th and 1. Taking just 2 QBs is the equivalent of going for the QB Sneak.

And taking 20 Kickers is like going empty backfield with your Kicker lined up behind Center and seeing what happens.

 

[chocula]

I jumped from #6500 or so in week 1 with 159 points to #314 with 225 points.

I cannot believe I made such a jump.

I am 1-5 in my 3 fantasy leagues so far this year, so I highly doubt my scoring will stay this high. LOL

 

[Touchdown There]

The perfect case study on why you should never have a roster with less than 22 players.

 

[Organized Chaos]

For those of you using the live scoring for this contest, I've made a few updates.

- Added ownership percent to the team view page. - This is a number for teams still in the contest. This will update on Tuesday's after the final cut is announced.

- Added a way to see if the team is still alive from the team page

- Automated the current cut, this will run at 8:01PM, 12:01AM on Sunday and again after the game on Monday, then one last time when the scores are finalized at 2AM on Monday. I've also added Staff ID's to get an accurate cut line.

 

[jimmy b]

For those of you using the live scoring for this contest, I've made a few updates.- Added ownership percent to the team view page. - This is a number for teams still in the contest. This will update on Tuesday's after the final cut is announced.- Added a way to see if the team is still alive from the team page- Automated the current cut, this will run at 8:01PM, 12:01AM on Sunday and again after the game on Monday, then one last time when the scores are finalized at 2AM on Monday. I've also added Staff ID's to get an accurate cut line.

Your doing the Lords work here my good friend......Thank You....

 

[bro1ncos]

For those of you using the live scoring for this contest, I've made a few updates.- Added ownership percent to the team view page. - This is a number for teams still in the contest. This will update on Tuesday's after the final cut is announced.- Added a way to see if the team is still alive from the team page- Automated the current cut, this will run at 8:01PM, 12:01AM on Sunday and again after the game on Monday, then one last time when the scores are finalized at 2AM on Monday. I've also added Staff ID's to get an accurate cut line.

Thank You!!!

 

[butcher boy]

The perfect case study on why you should never have a roster with less than 22 players.

Wow, no kidding. That looks like a pretty decent 19 player team on paper, but you still need pretty much every one of your picks to be good.

 

[Modog814]

The perfect case study on why you should never have a roster with less than 22 players.

Eh, I think this is more of a case study on how not to put together a roster with 22 or less players.

1) If you're going to spend that much on QB, go Stud + 1.

2) 3 High priced Defenses isn't the greatest idea.

3) Niether is 2 high priced kickers.

This team is out not so much because they went with a 19-man roster, but because of how they decided to break up that 19 man roster (both roster spots and cost).

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The perfect case study on why you should never have a roster with less than 22 players.

Eh, I think this is more of a case study on how not to put together a roster with 22 or less players.

1) If you're going to spend that much on QB, go Stud + 1.

2) 3 High priced Defenses isn't the greatest idea.

3) Niether is 2 high priced kickers.

This team is out not so much because they went with a 19-man roster, but because of how they decided to break up that 19 man roster (both roster spots and cost).

This team isn't out because it's a small roster, it's out because it's a poorly constructed small roster. IMO if you're going with 18 players, you pretty much have to go 2 QB, 4 RB, 6 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D. If you want to add a 19th player, you make it a RB/WR/TE, not a QB/K/D.

Their cost breakdown was way off, too:

QB: $53 <- too much

RB: $88 <- about right

WR: $59 <- not enough

TE: $16 <- not enough

K: $12 <- too much

D: $22 <- too much

 

[pocketducks]

For those of you using the live scoring for this contest, I've made a few updates.- Added ownership percent to the team view page. - This is a number for teams still in the contest. This will update on Tuesday's after the final cut is announced.- Added a way to see if the team is still alive from the team page- Automated the current cut, this will run at 8:01PM, 12:01AM on Sunday and again after the game on Monday, then one last time when the scores are finalized at 2AM on Monday. I've also added Staff ID's to get an accurate cut line.

Awesome!!! I'll be making a donation soon. Thank you so much.

 

[PatsChowder]

I had Ben Tate on my roster for several iterations and decided to go with Marion Barber instead

Unfortunately, I will join you in this club. I'm still holding out hope for some goalline action later.