rustycolts
Footballguy
Pretty good looking team.I never can pick em like that.
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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Took a similar approach to The Turk himself.I know Drinen's busy and doesn't really participate in the thread anymore, but if he's reading, I'd love for him to pop in and discuss his strategy this year.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I love the Turk's entry and I actually keep waiting for the moment he shows up on the roster of heroes (I thought this might be the week as I didn't remember his exact rooster). Seems to be paying off for him so far
Long Live The Turk!!!-QG
Crash and Walk Away
Footballguy
I tried to do something similar this year, only with a 3rd WR and also selected a stud K & DEF:
[*]Brees & Flacco
[*]Rice & Lynch
[*]Julio, Victor, & Antonio
[*]Gates
[*]Hanson
[*]Chicago
FWIW, not only am I the only one left, but the only one period who selected these five studs:
[*]Brees
[*]Rice
[*]Julio
[*]Victor
[*]Gates
So if am can make it to the finals, I'll have high hopes.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'm in great shape in terms of player health and bye weeks -- there aren't any obvious pitfalls in front of me in terms of having enough starters.
But my WRs corps is just not strong enough and will cost me sooner or later. Garcon is out for the indefinite future (IMO) and it doesn't look like Blackmon, Baldwin or Simpson are going to put up enough points to cover for the weeks where VJax, Wallace and T Smith go bust instead of boom.
Total overkill at RB though: Charles, Lynch, McFadden, Benson/Green, Mendenhall/Dwyer all panned out.
But my WRs corps is just not strong enough and will cost me sooner or later. Garcon is out for the indefinite future (IMO) and it doesn't look like Blackmon, Baldwin or Simpson are going to put up enough points to cover for the weeks where VJax, Wallace and T Smith go bust instead of boom.
Total overkill at RB though: Charles, Lynch, McFadden, Benson/Green, Mendenhall/Dwyer all panned out.
If Garcon doesn't play I will be one of the owners that can't fill a full roster this week. Injuries to Benson and Amendola will catch up this week. My flex will also have to be one of my RB's and I only have 3 available. I knew this was going to be my toughest week, but I didn't think it was going to be this bad.
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/102836
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/102836
I briefly considered this QB strategy, but opted against it in the end because I thought you'd get better production from a Stud QB and 1 or 2 cheapies.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
That is an interesting distribution. I have 19 guys not on bye. That's a bit deceptive though, since I have Amendola and Benson. And 4 of my "active" players are Blackmon, Little, Lafell, and Driver. So basically I have 13 players. My biggest concern is the fact that 50% (1 of 2) of my PK and Def are on byes. I also only have 3 RBs dressing this week and one of them is a back-up, albeit one who has a higher chance than most back-ups of finding the endzone (M. Bush).Week 7 didn't project as a really tough one for me a few weeks ago, but now it clearly is. That's why I'm amazed at the confidence some guys seem to have in their teams going forward. All I'm doing is hoping 1000 teams struggle more than me.
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Ahmad Rashad
Footballguy
With Carlson kicking in a huge 2.20 points for me this week during Graham's bye, Royster's the only guy I haven't used yet. Definitely would have taken Morris instead if he were available, but if his $3 go to waste, it's not the worst pick in the world. With Benson out and Royster doing nothing, I'm hoping Mendenhall can get healthy and pick up the slack for the bargain basement RB's on my roster, at least for Foster's bye, which could be my biggest risk week. That would make the combined $10 for these 3 RB's a good value. So far I've used at least 1 of the 3 (really of 2 with no Royster use yet) every elimination week.Based on the byes it looks more like "Show us your Roysters" this week-QG
butcher boy
Footballguy
Alive despite my flex dude giving me 4.6 points.
Thank you Aaron Rodgers for getting your dud games out of the way early during easier weeks and saving your stud games for the tough bye weeks.
Thank you Aaron Rodgers for getting your dud games out of the way early during easier weeks and saving your stud games for the tough bye weeks.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
He is now overdue for a dud though.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
He's only projected to score like 480 points this year. Can't believe he wasted 50+ of them on one game.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Depends on your team setup. My studs have already had their byes (Brees, Forte, DMC, Marshall, Calvin). The remaining bye-weeks of my 2nd tier players are all spread out so that they aren't really a concern. Barring injury or just a completely terrible week I should be looking good until the bye weeks end.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Sooo....seven defense guy was banking on one of them dropping a fifty week 7, I trust?
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
pfft, that's every week for me.Week 1 - RB2 5.40Week 2 - RB2 6.10, flex 7.10Week 3 - RB2 5.40Week 4 - RB2 4.90Week 5 - RB1 6.10, RB2 4.40, flex 6.80, TE 0.00Week 6 - RB2 18.8!!, Flex 8.30 - woohoo
My running back position for week 7 is terrible. With Murray, Benson and probably Mendenhall out, McGahee on bye, and
Jennings (worst $9 wasted) doing nothing, I've got M. Lynch and hoping that Mendenhall plays this week. I almost
forgot, with Ryan on bye, Cutler is my QB.
Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.
Jennings (worst $9 wasted) doing nothing, I've got M. Lynch and hoping that Mendenhall plays this week. I almost
forgot, with Ryan on bye, Cutler is my QB.
Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I kind of thought he's in trouble this week. Only 2 significant RBs - Rice @ Hous and Lynch @ SF
Only 3 Significant WRs - Harvin @ Ariz, Wayne vs Cleve, and Jones @ StL
He looks like he'll need another big week from Rodgers and some of his normal bench guys to contribute.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Nah, Manning only knelt twice and lost a single yard:
Code:
1-10-SD33 (:52) P.Manning kneels, dead ball declared at SD 33 for no gain. 2-10-SD33 (:20) P.Manning kneels, dead ball declared at SD 34 for -1 yards.butcher boy
Footballguy
True. I didn't really need all 6 of those TDs either. He could have thrown 5 and still kept me safe. Wish he would've saved that extra TD for a week I'll need it more.
This could be the week we find out. Both with only StaffordFoster vs. RidleyBryant/Wallace/Britt/Henderson vs. Fitz/Marshall/Garcon(Q)Olsen/Allen vs. Bennett/Davis2K vs. 2K2D vs. 3DWe could both use big weeks from Stafford, McFadden, and Julio. Only one other team with those 3 and McCoy and he looks to be in worse shape than us this week.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I'm in a similar bind. I lose a ton of players this week, especially RBs.
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
see you all next year due to the crazy high scoring/cut line for a big bye week... missed by a handful...
Where did wrong? Trying to put together some thoughts for next year.
Clear the cut by about 40 pts the first 4 weeks. Only had 3 on bye this week.
QB - Vick/Flacco $33. Scored 27/30/35/28/22/29. Had Ryan on the roster until the last iteration as I was trying to diversify. Turned out to be a good move this week anyway.
RB - Foster/Ridley/Wilson/Mendy/Benson/Tiawan. Really only missed on Wilson and Tiawan. Took a 4.4 at this position this week. Any normal week from Ridley/Mendy/Benson and I advance. I'm going to have to take a hard look at the two stud route next year and spend more money here.
WR - CJ/Marshall/Smith/Britt/Blackmon/Royal/Broyles - Really thought I'd have four beasts for the playoffs and Royal would cover Brit until he got up to speed. Had Marshall and Blackmon on bye this week, but still got 46 from my WRs. Lesson here is to stick with common sense and ignore perseason. I should not have rostered Blackmon or Broyles. Normally I would have more WRs but Marshall and Smith just seem too cheap and the lower tier guys too expensive this year. Titus Young was on numerous early submissions so at least I got that right.
TE - Graham/Chandler/Allen - Last year I had two studs. Gates was on my roster most of the way but I decided to go with Graham. Gates would have been a difference maker this week. Seems like all the guys I liked shared the same byes.
K - Had 3 and posted 17 this week. Not an issue.
D - Ditto the kicker situation.
Now I'm just more confused.
Clear the cut by about 40 pts the first 4 weeks. Only had 3 on bye this week.
QB - Vick/Flacco $33. Scored 27/30/35/28/22/29. Had Ryan on the roster until the last iteration as I was trying to diversify. Turned out to be a good move this week anyway.
RB - Foster/Ridley/Wilson/Mendy/Benson/Tiawan. Really only missed on Wilson and Tiawan. Took a 4.4 at this position this week. Any normal week from Ridley/Mendy/Benson and I advance. I'm going to have to take a hard look at the two stud route next year and spend more money here.
WR - CJ/Marshall/Smith/Britt/Blackmon/Royal/Broyles - Really thought I'd have four beasts for the playoffs and Royal would cover Brit until he got up to speed. Had Marshall and Blackmon on bye this week, but still got 46 from my WRs. Lesson here is to stick with common sense and ignore perseason. I should not have rostered Blackmon or Broyles. Normally I would have more WRs but Marshall and Smith just seem too cheap and the lower tier guys too expensive this year. Titus Young was on numerous early submissions so at least I got that right.
TE - Graham/Chandler/Allen - Last year I had two studs. Gates was on my roster most of the way but I decided to go with Graham. Gates would have been a difference maker this week. Seems like all the guys I liked shared the same byes.
K - Had 3 and posted 17 this week. Not an issue.
D - Ditto the kicker situation.
Now I'm just more confused.
Some good news for you.1. Six teams are on a bye this week. Scoring will be low.2. 1278 teams have Julio. 25%3. 1796 have Ryan. 33%4. 3155 have Benson. 60+%20% get cut this week. More people will be crippled this week missing players than teams will be cut.
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
1097 have Jimmy Graham....rumblings that he might be out for a few weeks. Not good for my team and many others...I can see a lot of those teams without a good option (or no other option) at TE this week because of the 6 teams with a bye. TE's on bye this week: Gates (700), Gonzo (452), Dreesen (247), Tamme (400), Moeaki (87), Boss (104), Fasano (78), and Celek (301).
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Nah, Manning only knelt twice and lost a single yard:
1-10-SD3352) P.Manning kneels, dead ball declared at SD 33 for no gain. 2-10-SD33
Manning knelt for a one-yard loss to end the first half also.-QG
Evenrude
Footballguy
I had never made it this far before, so wasn't really worrying about byes... but week seven will be brutal. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/104634.php 
My only hope is Richardson being out and Hardesty having a good game.
My only hope is Richardson being out and Hardesty having a good game.
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
I'm happy to be alive so far but don't think I have enough steady top end WR production.
My vote for best QB strategy this year is Grif/Ryan $36 - ave 34.8 with min 27.7 so far.
qb 34.8
rb1 22.2
rb2 13.9
wr1 23.4
wr2 17.5
wr3 15.2
te 15.5
flex 13.0
k 11.7
d 11.8
total 178.9
Never used yet list is smaller: D Wilson, B Powell, K Davis.
Each of my 6 WR has been used at least 3 times so far.
My vote for best QB strategy this year is Grif/Ryan $36 - ave 34.8 with min 27.7 so far.
qb 34.8
rb1 22.2
rb2 13.9
wr1 23.4
wr2 17.5
wr3 15.2
te 15.5
flex 13.0
k 11.7
d 11.8
total 178.9
Never used yet list is smaller: D Wilson, B Powell, K Davis.
Each of my 6 WR has been used at least 3 times so far.
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Good analysis. I bet there were more than a few teams with Nicks that got eliminated this week. I passed on him at $21 due to his preseason comment about playing in pain. Otherwise I probably would have paired him with Green too. With Brees on a bye, it really came down to Locker for you. He had arguably the most upside for any of the QBs at $9 or less. I chose Luck as my #2 behind Brees and he bombed this week. But as luck would have it, I also added Tannehill due to the Rams matchup and the $4 price tag. That said, I think you can make a very compelling argument for only going with 2 QBs in this contest. For the guys that only went with 1 QB, I think that strategy carries far too much risk. Even if you make it through the bye week, you can't survive missed games due to injury or that one dud per season that every stud QB puts up. And a cheap QB2 might be good enough to carry you if the rest of your team hits.
Saint
Footballguy
I find this fascinating in terms of the # of QBs on your team. If the value is the $ amount spent regardless of size, then you can definitely make the argument for taking 3 QBs and diversifying your risk of injuries (especially if you end in the sweet spot which appears to be $40 - 45 range).In terms of my team, I only spent $31 on 3 QBs, so I'm worried for my team's longevity...'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
Thank you for this. 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Maybe early morning but can't figure this out. I spent $32 on QB (Rivers and Ponder). That is 12.8%. What dot am I?I think I am "red" at about 34% survival rate.'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Right, you would look for $32 along the bottom, horizontal axis, and then find the corresponding survival rate on the vertical axis. Alternately you could simply plug $32 into the equation of the fitted curve: -0.0002(32)2 + 0.0159(32) + 0.0429 ~= 34.7%
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
No way, The MVP is back baby! Get used to it.Gates finally hit the board with my 5 TE team. I also have 2 players that have never hit the board. Royster & Bear PascoePascoe was a stupid $4 to spend. I should've used James Jones or Mendenhall ($3) who I had on numerous iterations of my team'BroadwayG said:
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
I only spent $22 on QB (Flacco & Luck @ $11 each)
This contest will be won on strong RB/WR/TE play not how much someone spends on QB.
This contest will be won on strong RB/WR/TE play not how much someone spends on QB.
Road Warriors
Footballguy
My breakdown avg scoring thru wk 6
QB: 34.75
RB1: 20.2
RB2: 12.8
WR1: 29.4
WR2: 21.6
WR3: 17.5
FLX: 13.1
TE: 14.5
K: 12.5
DEF: 11.5
TOT: 187.75
- Ryan / RGIII each contributed 3 weeks. Tannehill has been shut out so far
- Reggie Bush/Lynch/Benson have contributed 11 of 12 RB scores, with Blount counting wk 6. Jennings/Taiwan/Royster have been
shut out.
- 8 of 9 receivers have scored for me. Core of Marshall/Stevie/Wayne/Wallace.
- Pleasantly surprised to survive Hernandez injury, including taking a 0 at TE wk5. Pettigrew posted respectable numbers
wks 1-4.
QB: 34.75
RB1: 20.2
RB2: 12.8
WR1: 29.4
WR2: 21.6
WR3: 17.5
FLX: 13.1
TE: 14.5
K: 12.5
DEF: 11.5
TOT: 187.75
- Ryan / RGIII each contributed 3 weeks. Tannehill has been shut out so far
- Reggie Bush/Lynch/Benson have contributed 11 of 12 RB scores, with Blount counting wk 6. Jennings/Taiwan/Royster have been
shut out.
- 8 of 9 receivers have scored for me. Core of Marshall/Stevie/Wayne/Wallace.
- Pleasantly surprised to survive Hernandez injury, including taking a 0 at TE wk5. Pettigrew posted respectable numbers
wks 1-4.
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I disagree to a certain extent. I think QB will go a long way to separating teams in the final 250. It may or may not have as significant an impact in the survivor-portion of the contest, but at 6 pts per passing TD a hot QB for weeks 14-16 can be huge. No other position has the potential for 12 TDs in a 3-game stretch. To be sure, QB performance isn't the same thing as $$ spent on QBs, but I think QB will be the single most critical position to teams in the final 250.
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Well I have Ryan and Tannehill on BYE with Locker hurt. 
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I agree that QB is probably the most important position heading into the final 250, but looking at the week 14-16 schedules, there are a few less expensive QBs ($21 or less) that could carry a team to the top. Ryan and RG3 owners that make it will probably have an edge assuming they picked well at the other positions. The Manning brothers are also probably going to light it up those weeks. But I don't see more than a handful of QBs that could match or exceed 40pt games from Brees or Rodgers during that stretch. I would be very surprised if a team with a QB1 like Flacco wins this contest.
I agree. I think this is largely that that the money you save with those two cheap options (say difference of $10-$20)isn't going to be a limiting factor in the top 250 as sheer numbers will allow some small stud rosters to sneak by. But that extra money may help you get to the final 250, so while it may have been smart to skimp on QBs to get to the top 250; you are going to need some studly performances in weeks 14-16 in order to win, which imho Flacco and to a lesser extent Luck do not seem all that capable of. -Signed $30 at QB (Ryan & Luck)
Will be gone this week or next I have never got this far before either. But Looking at other teams I think I may want to work on my reading skills. I did not realize it would allow that many players to be counted in one week. Next year I will read the rules.
shader
Footballguy
Tough week this week. I have all my rb's, but am losing 3 of my best wr's, 2 te's, and amendola is on my roster.
Reggie Wayne and Kenny Britt will need to both have big weeks. Kyle Rudolph and Housler will be counted on at TE while Gates is on the bench.
I know the byes will affect everyone, so hopefully scores will be low.
Reggie Wayne and Kenny Britt will need to both have big weeks. Kyle Rudolph and Housler will be counted on at TE while Gates is on the bench.
I know the byes will affect everyone, so hopefully scores will be low.
