**Official 2014 MLB Regular Season-All over but the shouting (2 Viewers)

[Limp Ditka]

Another incorrect ruling on replay in the St. Louis/Milwaukee game. Why do we even bother with this if they aren't going to use the tools they have to fix things?

The pickoff of Upton yesterday was comical. This whole thing's been a disaster.

 

[Wrigley]

Another incorrect ruling on replay in the St. Louis/Milwaukee game. Why do we even bother with this if they aren't going to use the tools they have to fix things?

The pickoff of Upton yesterday was comical. This whole thing's been a disaster.

Replay should only be used for fair/foul and HR's

human error is part of what makes baseball great

 

[Limp Ditka]

Why am I being haunted by the ghost of Tim McCarver's broadcasting career?

 

[Annyong]

Another incorrect ruling on replay in the St. Louis/Milwaukee game. Why do we even bother with this if they aren't going to use the tools they have to fix things?

The pickoff of Upton yesterday was comical. This whole thing's been a disaster.

Replay should only be used for fair/foul and HR's

human error is part of what makes baseball great

shtick?

 

[Wrigley]

Another incorrect ruling on replay in the St. Louis/Milwaukee game. Why do we even bother with this if they aren't going to use the tools they have to fix things?

The pickoff of Upton yesterday was comical. This whole thing's been a disaster.

Replay should only be used for fair/foul and HR's

human error is part of what makes baseball great

shtick?

Not at all.

Until they put robots behind the plate to call balls and strikes, baseball will have a human element.

You can't tell me this is better than the way it was

 

[Limp Ditka]

Another incorrect ruling on replay in the St. Louis/Milwaukee game. Why do we even bother with this if they aren't going to use the tools they have to fix things?

The pickoff of Upton yesterday was comical. This whole thing's been a disaster.

Replay should only be used for fair/foul and HR's

human error is part of what makes baseball great

you're still getting human error.

 

[Wrigley]

Another incorrect ruling on replay in the St. Louis/Milwaukee game. Why do we even bother with this if they aren't going to use the tools they have to fix things?

The pickoff of Upton yesterday was comical. This whole thing's been a disaster.

Replay should only be used for fair/foul and HR's

human error is part of what makes baseball great

you're still getting human error.

Let the umps make the call and move on.

It all equals out after 162 anyway.

 

[RnR]

I'm starting lean towards agreeing with Wrigley-- basic things like fair/foul, HR/no HR, etc. Maybe have the current replay system in place for the postseason when the stakes are a little higher.

 

[Annyong]

Umpire error does not make baseball great.

 

[Eephus]

Replay slows the game down which is a bigger issue for the sport than the occasional missed call.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Anytime Madbum would like to stop pitching around guys hitting under the Mendoza Line.... that would be great.

 

[Hilts]

How did I miss the fact that Josh Donaldson was originally a Cubs product?

#106andcounting

At least Chicago was able to get Rich Harden out of that deal.

 

[Billy Bats]

Sonny Gray with a gem.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Anytime Madbum would like to stop pitching around guys hitting under the Mendoza Line.... that would be great.

This guy's a ####### mess.

Eephus - any insight?

 

[Limp Ditka]

Anytime Madbum would like to stop pitching around guys hitting under the Mendoza Line.... that would be great.

This guy's a ####### mess.

Eephus - any insight?

Because you can't stop the Padres #3 catcher, Rene Rivera, you can only hope to contain him.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Anytime Madbum would like to stop pitching around guys hitting under the Mendoza Line.... that would be great.

This guy's a ####### mess.

Eephus - any insight?

Because you can't stop the Padres #3 catcher, Rene Rivera, you can only hope to contain him.

First jack since May of 2011

 

[Daywalker]

Harper out until July

That'll teach him to hustle.

Sliding head first is asking for an injury.

A lot of the talking heads on the mlb podcasts talk about this. Keith Law comes to mind. Kind of a stat-head sentiment. That hustling when it barely matters is not worth it. Not that this was the case with the Harper play. But someone like Cano comes to mind.. Dogs it now and again but plays everyday and how missing 15-20 games/season due to going all-out is not worth it.

It's a fine line. A ball going past H. Ramirez and him dogging after it is one thing. Hitting a dribbler to the pitcher and not sprinting to first base another.

 

[Premier]

One thing MLB replay has done is really make me appreciate how good NFL replay is. Despite it being a much more difficult sport to ref, they seem to get the replays correct way more often.

I've seen 5 MLB replays or so live in the games I've watched. Every one of them seemed easy to call correctly after a very brief viewing. I think they only got 2 of them correct. Horrid. It's like they're trying to kill it from with or something.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Harper out until July

That'll teach him to hustle.

Sliding head first is asking for an injury.

Nope.

While much is being made of Harper's sliding head-first, there have been studies on this. The best study was done in 2000 by Dr. Robert Hosey using data from college baseball and softball. Surprisingly, the incidence rate of injuries after feet-first slides was more than double that of sliding head-first or even just diving back to the bag on a pickoff play.

article link

 

[RnR]

One thing MLB replay has done is really make me appreciate how good NFL replay is. Despite it being a much more difficult sport to ref, they seem to get the replays correct way more often.

I've seen 5 MLB replays or so live in the games I've watched. Every one of them seemed easy to call correctly after a very brief viewing. I think they only got 2 of them correct. Horrid. It's like they're trying to kill it from with or something.

I think the NFL style of replay is actually what is holding MLB replay back. The MLB replay officials seem intent on using the same "conclusive evidence" standard that the NFL has for overturning calls, when the truth is that 95% of plays that are going to be reviewed in baseball are of the bang-bang variety that aren't going to stand out as an egregious mistake on film. Most reviewed plays are going to be really, really close and they're going to have to start ruling with what looks right, otherwise they are better off just using the umpire's snap judgement on the field and doing away with the replay process on that type of play.

 

[cheese]

All I know is there has been more discussion on umpiring and calls this season than any other. That seems counter-productive to me.

It might be true that we're now getting 85% of close calls right instead of 84% or something, but we've put such a huge spotlight on those calls now that the missed calls are the story line in way too many games.

 

[Northern Voice]

Does Bunting Make More Sense in Today's MLB

Through Sunday's action, non-pitchers laid down 310 bunts this season, leading to 89 hits, 13 errors, 123 sacrifices, 82 outs and three double plays. According to the Baseball-Reference Play-Index, these 310 bunts have been worth a staggering plus-2.5 wins by Win Probability Added and plus-17 runs by RE24, a run-expectancy metric based on the runners on base and number of outs in the inning.


Over 600 plate appearances, the league's bunt performance comes out to plus-4.84 WPA (roughly equivalent to Josh Donaldson's 2013 performance) and plus-32.9 RE24 (roughly equal to Hunter Pence's 2013 performance). That is, bunting with position players has worked out really, really well this year.

What gives?

One of the earliest sabermetric findings, dating back to Pete Palmer, is that the sacrifice bunt is a suboptimal play. This was only reinforced by later sabermetricans like Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman, and is a prevailing aspect of sabermetric thought for years.

While this is certainly still true in the general case — outs are valuable, and in general, a runner on first with no outs is preferable to a runner on second with one out — applying the general case across the board ignores how strategic decisions should change depending on game context.

Bill James, initially a detractor of the bunt like most prominent sabermetricians, came to this realization as well. As he wrote in his Guide to Baseball Managers:

"Time passes; there are other books and other prophets. The number of bunts per game has gradually increased since 1984, reaching as high as 80 per hundred games (1993). And I've had second thoughts, and I've done some additional research. I am no longer convinced that the sacrifice bunt is a poor percentage play."

James presents a number of reasons why the bunt, when deployed correctly, is a smart play. There are situations — generally, close and late as the home team — when playing for one run leads to a higher win probability than playing for the big inning. The run expectancy numbers that drive the conversation are based on the average hitter, and could change significantly based on the quality and tendencies of the hitter. As James put it:

"No one believes that having runners on first and second with one out is a better deal (for the defense) than having us a man on second with one out. But if Barry Bonds is at the plate and Rikkert Faneyte is on deck, you still might order the walk. The advantage you're going for doesn't reside in the inherent situation; it resides in the identity of the hitter. The same might well apply to the sacrifice bunt."

Managers, it appears, agree with James here. Observe, the 20 position players to attempt at least four bunts thus far in 2014:

Player Bunts ZiPS wOBA
Billy Hamilton 11 0.302
Leonys Martin 9 0.318
Danny Espinosa 8 0.287
David Lough 7 0.296
Dee Gordon 7 0.277
Eric Young 7 0.292
Starling Marte 6 0.326
Jonathan Villar 5 0.289
Brandon Barnes 5 0.300
Jarrod Dyson 5 0.276
Ben Revere 5 0.298
Bryce Harper 4 0.382
Scooter Gennett 4 0.306
Nori Aoki 4 0.312
Jean Segura 4 0.324
Christian Yelich 4 0.328
Will Venable 4 0.315
Junior Lake 4 0.297
Emilio Bonifacio 4 0.292
Alcides Escobar 4 0.280
TOTAL 111 0.303

Bryce Harper stands out as the only slugger on the list, but as a speedy left-hander, he is a prime candidate to catch a third baseman off balance with a bunt.

Mostly, though, this list contains speedsters without pop, the kind of players that can bunt for a hit even when the defense expects it, and the kind of players that aren't likely to make much out of the plate appearance they're giving up. A weighted average of their projected wOBAs comes out to .303, or exactly what Dan Uggla and Andrelton Simmons posted in 2013. Opportunity cost is low, the chance of a hit is high, and a failed bunt will typically still result in a runner in scoring position.

The leaguewide improvements in pitchers and defenders have made it harder and harder on major league hitters. The league's .316 OBP would be the lowest mark since 1964.

As such, the opportunity cost of a bunt is as low as it has been in 50 years. Hitters, particularly the hitters likely to get the bunt sign, are less likely to reach base in the first place than ever before. The advantage of these bunts, as James put it, resides in the identities of these hitters. Managers have done an excellent job thus far of picking spots, and the hitters have executed brilliantly.

Does this mean the bunt has become a smart play? Perhaps, perhaps not. I would suggest looking for an all-encompassing heuristic is a fool's errand and that context matters more than anything. Or, as James concluded his essay:

"What I'm saying is that I simply do not know. The answer, dear class, is rolling in the grass. I don't think the right number is zero, and I doubt that it's near zero, but I don't know what it is. Having thought about the issue at great length, having worked hard to analyze the math involved, I can only tell you that there is no definitively correct mathematical answer at this time. Earl Weaver may have been right; Billy Southworth may have been right. Maybe each of them had the right answer for his own team. The rest of us need to keep an open mind."

 

[E-Z Glider]

Who is the worst manager in baseball? Mitch Williams? Ventura?

yeah. That Mitch Williams guy is pretty bad at managing.

lol. Matt Williams. Mitch would be an entertaining coach.

My buddy coached against Mitch in a little league tournament last year. Cool story, bro?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

is that saying that the original analysis of the sacrifice failed to properly calculate the upside of getting a hit in the sac situation? and/or that players are now better at getting hits in the sac situations?

or are they really just talking about non-sac situations?

i'm a little confused.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Does Bunting Make More Sense in Today's MLB

Through Sunday's action, non-pitchers laid down 310 bunts this season, leading to 89 hits, 13 errors, 123 sacrifices, 82 outs and three double plays. According to the Baseball-Reference Play-Index, these 310 bunts have been worth a staggering plus-2.5 wins by Win Probability Added and plus-17 runs by RE24, a run-expectancy metric based on the runners on base and number of outs in the inning.


Over 600 plate appearances, the league's bunt performance comes out to plus-4.84 WPA (roughly equivalent to Josh Donaldson's 2013 performance) and plus-32.9 RE24 (roughly equal to Hunter Pence's 2013 performance). That is, bunting with position players has worked out really, really well this year.

What gives?

One of the earliest sabermetric findings, dating back to Pete Palmer, is that the sacrifice bunt is a suboptimal play. This was only reinforced by later sabermetricans like Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman, and is a prevailing aspect of sabermetric thought for years.

While this is certainly still true in the general case — outs are valuable, and in general, a runner on first with no outs is preferable to a runner on second with one out — applying the general case across the board ignores how strategic decisions should change depending on game context.

Bill James, initially a detractor of the bunt like most prominent sabermetricians, came to this realization as well. As he wrote in his Guide to Baseball Managers:

"Time passes; there are other books and other prophets. The number of bunts per game has gradually increased since 1984, reaching as high as 80 per hundred games (1993). And I've had second thoughts, and I've done some additional research. I am no longer convinced that the sacrifice bunt is a poor percentage play."

James presents a number of reasons why the bunt, when deployed correctly, is a smart play. There are situations — generally, close and late as the home team — when playing for one run leads to a higher win probability than playing for the big inning. The run expectancy numbers that drive the conversation are based on the average hitter, and could change significantly based on the quality and tendencies of the hitter. As James put it:

"No one believes that having runners on first and second with one out is a better deal (for the defense) than having us a man on second with one out. But if Barry Bonds is at the plate and Rikkert Faneyte is on deck, you still might order the walk. The advantage you're going for doesn't reside in the inherent situation; it resides in the identity of the hitter. The same might well apply to the sacrifice bunt."

Managers, it appears, agree with James here. Observe, the 20 position players to attempt at least four bunts thus far in 2014:

Player Bunts ZiPS wOBA
Billy Hamilton 11 0.302
Leonys Martin 9 0.318
Danny Espinosa 8 0.287
David Lough 7 0.296
Dee Gordon 7 0.277
Eric Young 7 0.292
Starling Marte 6 0.326
Jonathan Villar 5 0.289
Brandon Barnes 5 0.300
Jarrod Dyson 5 0.276
Ben Revere 5 0.298
Bryce Harper 4 0.382
Scooter Gennett 4 0.306
Nori Aoki 4 0.312
Jean Segura 4 0.324
Christian Yelich 4 0.328
Will Venable 4 0.315
Junior Lake 4 0.297
Emilio Bonifacio 4 0.292
Alcides Escobar 4 0.280
TOTAL 111 0.303

Bryce Harper stands out as the only slugger on the list, but as a speedy left-hander, he is a prime candidate to catch a third baseman off balance with a bunt.

Mostly, though, this list contains speedsters without pop, the kind of players that can bunt for a hit even when the defense expects it, and the kind of players that aren't likely to make much out of the plate appearance they're giving up. A weighted average of their projected wOBAs comes out to .303, or exactly what Dan Uggla and Andrelton Simmons posted in 2013. Opportunity cost is low, the chance of a hit is high, and a failed bunt will typically still result in a runner in scoring position.

The leaguewide improvements in pitchers and defenders have made it harder and harder on major league hitters. The league's .316 OBP would be the lowest mark since 1964.

As such, the opportunity cost of a bunt is as low as it has been in 50 years. Hitters, particularly the hitters likely to get the bunt sign, are less likely to reach base in the first place than ever before. The advantage of these bunts, as James put it, resides in the identities of these hitters. Managers have done an excellent job thus far of picking spots, and the hitters have executed brilliantly.

Does this mean the bunt has become a smart play? Perhaps, perhaps not. I would suggest looking for an all-encompassing heuristic is a fool's errand and that context matters more than anything. Or, as James concluded his essay:

"What I'm saying is that I simply do not know. The answer, dear class, is rolling in the grass. I don't think the right number is zero, and I doubt that it's near zero, but I don't know what it is. Having thought about the issue at great length, having worked hard to analyze the math involved, I can only tell you that there is no definitively correct mathematical answer at this time. Earl Weaver may have been right; Billy Southworth may have been right. Maybe each of them had the right answer for his own team. The rest of us need to keep an open mind."

I am all for situational bunting, especially when trying to get a base hit and to advance a runner from 2nd to 3rd with no one out if the right hitter is at the plate.

 

[Eephus]

Earl Weaver is turning over in his grave

 

[GroveDiesel]

Replay slows the game down which is a bigger issue for the sport than the occasional missed call.

I'm not really sure about that. It seems to me that a replay probably takes about the same amount of time as a manager coming out and complaining about the call.

It's going to take some time, but I would love to see statistics at the end of the season on which umpires overturned more calls and which overturned less. I bet some umpires resent instant replay and their ego prevents them from admitting that they/their crew screwed up.

Now that I think about it, it seems kind of weird that this kind of info isn't made more of a big deal in football. You'd think there would probably be statistical variations that have shown up by now and that somebody would be reporting on it. Heck, they always show graphics during games on how often coaches are successful. Seems like a graphic showing how often a particular Reffing crew overturns calls would be useful as well.

 

[bosoxs45]

Anyone watch Yordano Ventura pitch yet?

Man, he is a joy to watch for the KC Royals.

 

[Eephus]

Replay slows the game down which is a bigger issue for the sport than the occasional missed call.

I'm not really sure about that. It seems to me that a replay probably takes about the same amount of time as a manager coming out and complaining about the call.

It's going to take some time, but I would love to see statistics at the end of the season on which umpires overturned more calls and which overturned less. I bet some umpires resent instant replay and their ego prevents them from admitting that they/their crew screwed up.

Now that I think about it, it seems kind of weird that this kind of info isn't made more of a big deal in football. You'd think there would probably be statistical variations that have shown up by now and that somebody would be reporting on it. Heck, they always show graphics during games on how often coaches are successful. Seems like a graphic showing how often a particular Reffing crew overturns calls would be useful as well.

You're probably right in the grand scheme of things. The challenges themselves add a few minutes per game which isn't a major addition in and of itself. But at least umpire-manager rhubarbs were entertaining. They've been replaced by boring stalling tactics while some guy in the clubhouse decides whether a play is worth challenging.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

I just noticed that Brian Dozier has 7 HR and 9 RBI. that's pretty tough to do.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I just noticed that Brian Dozier has 7 HR and 9 RBI. that's pretty tough to do.

Batting leadoff on the Twins is probably one of the best lineup spots to accomplish such a feat.

 

[bosoxs45]

I just noticed that Brian Dozier has 7 HR and 9 RBI. that's pretty tough to do.

Batting leadoff on the Twins is probably one of the best lineup spots to accomplish such a feat.

All three games between twins-dodgers has a possibility of being rained out.

 

[Eephus]

I just noticed that Brian Dozier has 7 HR and 9 RBI. that's pretty tough to do.

Batting leadoff on the Twins is probably one of the best lineup spots to accomplish such a feat.

All three games between twins-dodgers has a possibility of being rained out.

They can make up the games in 2017

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Gonna be surprised if they get in all these east coast games, it's raining everywhere. Baltimore seems to have a window between 7-10, but New York and Philadelphia aren't as lucky. Dodgers/ Twins already cancelled, raining in Cincy, Chicago and Boston too.

 

[Swing 51]

Weds and Thurs don't look good for DC area either. Not sure if this storm system goes north to Balmer and all up the east coast.

 

[Swing 51]

Baltimore/Pit PPD

 

[MAC_32]

I was hoping Mother Nature would help with my wsis decision tonight, but no dice. Can't guess which of the other games will get ppd. Oh well.

 

[shadyridr]

I dpnt understand booing cano.

 

[Michael Brown]

Raider is gonna love seeing footage of robbie busting it down the line on that groundout

 

[rodg12]

I dpnt understand booing cano.

He chose money over legacy and then said the Yankees disrespected him. What'd you expect?

 

[cheese]

I dpnt understand booing cano.

Irony is thick

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Looks like Alex Wood's bad luck ran out tonight.

 

[jamny]

I Jose Fernandez

 

[Annyong]

Fernandez is unreal. He's gotta be right behind Kershaw at this point.

Kershaw

Fernandez

Wainwright

Felix

Scherzer

Strasburg

Darvish

Rex Grossman

 

[shadyridr]

behind Kershaw? check his #s since June of last year. I wouldnt trade him for anyone

 

[Wrigley]

I dpnt understand booing cano.

Irony is thick

Cheering that he sold out, while cheering a team full of sell outs.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I dpnt understand booing cano.

He chose money over legacy and then said the Yankees disrespected him. What'd you expect?

Legacy? You mean being overshadowed by the vastly inferior player to his right on the infield, playing in front of fans so lacking in intelligence and self-awareness that they chanted "you sold out" at him while cheering Sabathia, Ellsbury, Beltran and Teixeira?

Yeah, I can't believe that legacy didn't outweigh money.

 

[Annyong]

behind Kershaw? check his #s since June of last year. I wouldnt trade him for anyone

I said "right behind" as in "really close" but I guess it's personal preference. I'll take the guy who's been doing it for years, but I wouldn't fault anyone for putting Fernandez ahead of Kershaw.

 

[shadyridr]

I dpnt understand booing cano.

He chose money over legacy and then said the Yankees disrespected him. What'd you expect?

Legacy? You mean being overshadowed by the vastly inferior player to his right on the infield, playing in front of fans so lacking in intelligence and self-awareness that they chanted "you sold out" at him while cheering Sabathia, Ellsbury, Beltran and Teixeira?

Yeah, I can't believe that legacy didn't outweigh money.

Exactly

 

[shadyridr]

Fernandez since June 1st of last year:

160 IP, 190 k, 1.52 era, .85 whip

Also, did anyone see the play of him faking out the runner on third?